Toward an Empirical Probabilistic Risk Manifestation Model of Organizational Cybersecurity in SMEs
Empirical study of 22 SME security assessments builds a probabilistic risk model and shows assessments can be cut 24-45% while retaining most critical findings.
Researchers analyzed 281 validated security findings from 22 real-world SME cybersecurity assessments conducted over two years via a pro bono university clinic. They derived an empirical Risk Manifestation Model linking eight organizational security functions to two exposure conditions, five attack mechanisms, and six outcome categories, using probability propagation to identify dominant risk pathways. The dominant pathway runs from asset exposure to credential compromise to unauthorized access, stable under leave-one-organization-out analysis. Retaining six functions reduces assessment burden by 24% while preserving 97% of critical findings; five functions cut burden 45% while preserving 89% of critical findings.
- Study of 281 findings across 22 SME assessments over two years
- Eight organizational security functions mapped to exposure, attack mechanisms, and outcomes
- Dominant pathway: asset exposure to credential compromise to unauthorized access
- Six-function assessment preserves 97% of critical findings with 24% less burden
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In this paper, we present a cross-layer empirical study of organizational cybersecurity risk in Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), analyzing 281 validated security findings from 22 real-world SME cybersecurity assessments conducted over two years through a pro bono university cybersecurity clinic. We first identify recurring organizational security functions through iterative thematic coding, then estimate an empirical Risk Manifestation Model linking these functions to exposure conditions, attack mechanisms, and cybersecurity outcomes, and use probability propagation to identify dominant risk pathways. The model characterizes empirical associations observed in this sample rather than causal or predictive relationships. Our analysis identifies eight organizational security functions associated with two exposure conditions, five attack mechanisms, and six outcome categories. Across most functions, the dominant pathway follows asset exposure to credential compromise to unauthorized access, whereas infrastructure and network security primarily propagates through network exposure; these pathways remain stable under leave-one-organization-out analysis. Finally, we evaluate whether SME cybersecurity assessments can be simplified while preserving meaningful security coverage. Retaining six functions reduces assessment burden by 24% while preserving 97% of critical findings and 92% of risk-pathway coverage, a security-oriented reduction, while retaining five functions reduces burden by 45% while preserving 89% of critical findings and 85% of risk-pathway coverage, a more efficiency-oriented alternative.
Text extracted automatically; images, tables and formatting may be missing. Original: https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.14888