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Search: “analysis”

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DynSHAP: Towards Explainable Dynamic Survival Analysis

DynSHAP extends SHAP explainability to dynamic survival analysis, treating time-feature pairs as Shapley players for longitudinal clinical predictions.

DynSHAP adapts marginal SHAP estimators to dynamic survival analysis by treating time-feature pairs as players in the Shapley game, handling longitudinal irregular inputs and functional survival outputs. Temporal DynSHAP learns linear feature dependencies over time and addresses them with conditional sampling. On synthetic data with ground-truth attributions it recovers temporally dependent features more accurately than marginal estimators, and it produces faithful attributions on two real-world clinical datasets across two DSA architectures.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL · 5d agoAI research

When Agents Slow Down: Understanding LLM Agents' Test-Time Strategies via Elo-per-token Analysis

Elo-per-token analysis shows LLM agents' marginal gains drop below independent sampling at scale; parallel sessions beat one long session.

The paper proposes Elo-per-token analysis, using a Bradley-Terry model to measure how agent performance scales with token budget on open-ended tasks with continuous scoring. Across four agents and four benchmarks with sessions up to 100M tokens, agents initially convert tokens to Elo faster than independent sampling but eventually slow below the linear-in-log-compute reference. The authors define a scaling inflection point and show that splitting 100M tokens across parallel sessions on FrontierCS Polyomino Packing gains +264 Elo over one long session and +355 over ten short sessions. Human contestants on shared AtCoder Heuristic Contest tasks improve superlinearly, indicating headroom over current agents.

Hugging Face daily papers · 3d agoAI research5· 2 reads

Gaze as Evidence for Common Grounding: A Cross-Corpus Analysis of MapTask and MUNDEX

Cross-corpus analysis finds gaze patterns modestly correlate with grounding alignment in the MapTask and MUNDEX dialogue corpora.

Researchers mapped HCRC MapTask and MUNDEX annotations into a shared partner/task/away vocabulary and computed gaze features around task-relevant dialogue units. Aligned reference interpretations and understood judgments co-occur with more task-directed gaze, lower gaze entropy, and fewer transitions, clearest for task-leading participants. Effects are small and several weaken when recurring participants rather than dialogues are the unit of inference, so gaze is treated as one contributing cue to grounding.

Hugging Face daily papers · 1d agoAI research

Vulnerability Localization Benchmark: Measuring Agentic Security Analysis at Repository Scale

VLoc Bench tests 27 language models at locating vulnerable files in 290 repositories; best system reaches 0.229 File F1 and 38.4% of tasks unsolved.

The Vulnerability Localization Benchmark (VLoc Bench) contains 500 real-world vulnerabilities from 290 repositories across six package ecosystems and 147 CWE categories, pairing pre-fix and post-fix repository snapshots. Agents receive only a CWE description and read-only terminal access to identify affected files, and must confirm absence on patched snapshots. The strongest of 27 language models and four static-analysis tools achieves just 0.229 File F1; 38.4% of tasks receive no correct localization, and effective localizers still report unsupported locations on patched repositories.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL · 2d agoAI research

Learning with Covariance Matrices: Principal Component Analysis Meets Learning with Graphs

Theoretical tutorial establishes equivalence between covariance neural networks and PCA, with stability and transferability bounds and brain-age applications.

The paper reviews the theory of coVariance neural networks (VNNs), graph neural networks that operate on covariance matrices as graphs. It derives a conceptual equivalence between VNNs and PCA-based information processing, refined stability bounds under finite-sample covariance perturbations, and transferability characterizations across multiscale datasets. Demonstrated applications include brain age gap estimation for neurodegenerative conditions from neuroimaging data.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL · 7d agoAI research1

LLM Agents as Computational Typologists

AUTOTYPOLOGIST is an LLM agent that performs evidence-grounded linguistic typology analysis over 25 open-source reference grammars.

The agent retrieves relevant grammar sections, analyzes interlinear glossed text (IGT), and iteratively reasons over typological hypotheses in a ReAct-style workflow. It was evaluated on typological feature coding against expert annotations and hypothesis testing against universals using 25 open-source reference grammars. Results suggest LLM agents can support scalable, inspectable crosslinguistic analysis but still require expert validation.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL · 9d agoAI research1

A Theoretical Analysis of Generalization Dynamics in Neural Networks under Gradient Descent with Weight Decay

Theoretical framework bounds generalization for gradient descent with weight decay, deriving conditions that explain delayed generalization and grokking.

The paper proves convergence of gradient descent with weight decay to a neighborhood of global minimizers of the empirical l2 loss for a broad class of neural networks. It decomposes population error into data, optimization, and prediction variation errors, deriving cellwise and layerwise approximate-homogeneity bounds on prediction variation along the training trajectory. The resulting necessary and sufficient conditions explain layerwise generalization differences and provide a theoretical characterization of grokking.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL · 9d agoAI research

Scalability Analysis of Distributed Kolmogorov-Arnold Network Training on High-Performance Computing Systems

An empirical study shows distributed Kolmogorov-Arnold Network training reaches 74.7% parallel efficiency at 8 A100 GPUs, with overheads driven by All-Reduce choices.

The study evaluates data-parallel Kolmogorov-Arnold Network (KAN) training on the FinisTerrae III supercomputer using up to 8 NVIDIA A100 GPUs across 4 nodes with PyTorch Distributed Data Parallel. Strong scaling yields 5.97x speedup and 74.7% parallel efficiency at 8 GPUs, comparable to conventional deep learning workloads, while communication overhead ranges from 1.3% to 6.1%, driven mainly by All-Reduce algorithm selection and inter-node latency rather than KAN's edge-wise gradient structure. Weak scaling shows an initial single-to-multi-GPU throughput drop followed by stability, and the parameter-to-memory ratio improves with model size even as training time scales unfavorably. The authors provide GPU topology and model-size deployment guidelines for KAN training.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL · 9d agoAI research1

Import AI 470: No rights for machines; automating environment generation with SPADE; and building better GPU kernels with Hawkeye

METR analysis finds AI accelerating cyber vulnerability discovery, while SPADE self-play environment generation improves Qwen3 reasoning benchmark scores at 30B scale.

Import AI 470 discusses a METR research note reporting differential acceleration from AI: major acceleration in reported cyber vulnerabilities (cURL, OpenSSL, Firefox, Microsoft, NVD, OSV), minor acceleration in mathematics, and no measurable acceleration in AI-research optimization benchmarks. It also covers SPADE, a self-play framework from a multi-university team (University of Washington, Stanford, MIT, CMU, and others) that co-evolves executable training environments and agent capability using Environment Designer and Reasoning Agent roles with hint-based regret rewards. Trained on Qwen3-4B-Instruct-2507, Qwen3-8B, and Qwen3-30B-A3B-Instruct-2507 via GRPO (400 rollouts of 25 environments), SPADE lifted the 30B-A3B game-environment suite average to 58.3, +8.1 over base, and improved tool-use results across backbones. The issue also references Hawkeye for building better GPU kernels.

Import AI · 24d agoAI research1

The Frontier AEO Tracker: What Astra Chooses (and every other frontier model, and what you can do about it)

Latent Space launches an AEO tracker scoring 7 frontier models' product recommendations across 161 categories, revealing generational bias flips.

Latent Space built a tracker measuring Answer Engine Optimization by running 6 prompt variations across 7 frontier models with search enabled over 161 product categories, scoring first choices, alternatives, mentions, and anti-recommendations. It found 28 categories with a universally dominant primary choice and observed soft biases, such as models favoring their own lab's coding agents. Analysis of Anthropic's Sol→Astra and Opus→Fable generations showed newer models consulting fewer sources and being less likely to change answers when questions are paraphrased.

Latent Space · 9d agoAI research

Structured Claim-Level Discourse Representations for Dense Health Narratives

Researchers propose a claim-level discourse framework for health videos, finding 13.22 atomic claims per minute and that LLMs struggle with pragmatic profiling.

The paper introduces a structured framework for claim-level discourse analysis in dense health narratives on social media videos, modeling tuples that link atomic claims with thematic aspects, stance, and multidimensional pragmatic attributes. Analysis found an average of 13.22 atomic claims per minute in health video discourse. A benchmark spanning four health domains with 1,191 manually annotated claims from 60 videos shows current LLMs perform strongly on thematic categorization and stance prediction but struggle with high-dimensional pragmatic profiling, suggesting future systems need task decomposition and specialized inference strategies.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL · 20h agoAI research

Bias-Induced Crossover in Absolute Capacity of Dense Associative Memory

Analysis shows biased patterns cut dense associative memory capacity from N^(n-1)/ln N to O(N^(n/2)), with a bias-induced crossover.

The paper analyzes dense associative memory capacity for biased centered binary patterns under the Krotov-Hopfield single-site criterion. Unbiased patterns (q=1/2) with order-n polynomial interactions yield capacity of order N^(n-1)/ln N, while fixed bias q<1/2 reduces capacity to O(N^(n/2)) for even n>=4 and O(N^((n+1)/2)) for odd n>=5. A bias-dependent crosstalk mean destabilizes sites carrying the frequent value, and an activity-dependent control potential restores the higher capacity within the conditioned-Gaussian approximation.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL · 1d agoAI research

Reduced-Space Multi-Fidelity Bayesian Optimization of Process Simulation Models

RS-MFBO couples global sensitivity analysis with fidelity-augmented Gaussian processes to slash costly high-fidelity simulation runs in industrial flowsheet optimization.

The paper presents RS-MFBO, a reduced-space multi-fidelity Bayesian optimization framework for high-dimensional, expensive black-box functions. It integrates Global Sensitivity Analysis for dimensionality reduction with a fidelity-augmented Gaussian process and a cost-aware acquisition strategy featuring cooldown and promotion mechanisms. Validation on a plasmid DNA bioprocess (SuperPro Designer) and a green fuel synthesis plant (Aspen HYSYS) shows substantial reductions in high-fidelity evaluations while remaining competitive with single-fidelity baselines.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL · 1d agoAI research

Real-SWE: Benchmarking AI models on private, real-world, enterprise codebases

Real-SWE benchmark tests coding agents on licensed private enterprise codebases; top model Fable 5.1 resolves only 38.8% of tasks.

Real-SWE is a new benchmark evaluating frontier AI coding agents on tasks drawn from private production codebases licensed from real companies, spanning billing, tax calculation, and cross-service migrations. Fable 5.1 with Claude Code leads at 38.8% resolution rate (pass@1 over eight runs), followed by GPT-6 Astra Codex CLI at 33.8% and Gemini 3.8 Flash Gemini CLI at 31.2%. Tasks use native harnesses and realistic tooling including Docker, Kubernetes, PostgreSQL, Redis, and Linear; median reference solutions edit 11 files versus 6 for DeepSWE and FrontierCode.

Hacker News · AI · 4d agoAI researchHN 45↑ · 31 comments1

Retrofitting Code Using LLMs to Support Exceptional Behavior

EXCODER combines static/dynamic analysis with LLMs to retrofit exception-handling code, achieving 85.92% pass@1 with Qwen 2.5 Coder 32B on Java benchmarks.

The paper introduces the task of retrofitting existing code with Exception Related Code (throw statements, guarding conditions, try/catch blocks) so that given Exceptional Behavior Tests pass. EXCODER performs context engineering by integrating static and dynamic program analysis output with LLMs; it was evaluated on a benchmark built from 304 methods across 75 GitHub Java projects. Combined with Qwen 2.5 Coder 32B, EXCODER achieves pass@1, 5, and 10 rates of 85.92%, 86.18%, and 86.51%, roughly 13 percentage points over baseline, and manual inspection reveals remaining limitations.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL · 7d agoAI research1

Double descent is the principle of least action

A statistical mechanics analysis explains double descent: finite-time diffusion induces effective weight decay that regularizes models as parameters grow.

The paper models stochastic gradient-based training as a particle diffusing over the training-loss energy landscape at an induced temperature, sampling parameters via a Boltzmann distribution. Finite training time carries an effective weight decay, making every parameter a quadratic degree of freedom governed by the equipartition theorem. Adding parameters at fixed training loss lowers the temperature and the L2 norm of the stationary path, increasing effective regularization and explaining the double descent phenomenon.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL · 20h agoAI research

Fast Learning Rates for Physics-Informed Kernel Methods

Theoretical analysis proves finite-sample learning rates for physics-informed kernel estimators, showing differential observations can improve rates from n^-1/4 to n^-1/2.

The paper analyzes a physics-informed kernel estimator combining n value observations and m differential observations for a linear differential operator D, asking how much differential information improves prediction. The authors prove finite-sample bounds, supported by simulations, revealing a two-regime structure: when m is limited the rate depends jointly on n and m, and when m exceeds a problem-dependent threshold the rate saturates to the oracle rate. Examples in Sobolev spaces, including partial Laplacian constraints on the torus and gradient observations on bounded domains, illustrate improvements from the nonparametric n^-1/4 rate to the parametric n^-1/2 rate, plus physically consistent rates in a stronger norm.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL · 20h agoAI research

EvolveTrade: Experience-Driven Policy Refinement for Self-Evolving LLM Trading Agents

EvolveTrade lets LLM trading agents self-refine their tool-use policy from realized portfolio feedback, improving Sharpe ratios.

EvolveTrade treats a tool-using trading agent's system prompt as a text-parameterized policy that a Policy Agent revises after each update interval using accumulated decision traces and realized portfolio feedback, keeping the backbone LLM fixed. Experiments across multiple market regimes and two LLM backbones show improved Sharpe Ratio and Cumulative Return over fixed-policy baselines in most settings. Behavioral analyses show evolved policies increase code-mediated analysis and activate regime-relevant computations, with case-level attributions linking policy changes to returns.

Hugging Face daily papers · 2d agoAI research

MIT creates method to force AI to comply with safety rules

MIT researchers published HardFlow, a method enforcing hard safety constraints on flow-matching generative models' final outputs without retraining.

MIT researchers led by Zeyang Li and Navid Azizan developed HardFlow, a trajectory-optimization method that enforces strict, non-negotiable constraints on flow-matching generative models by checking rule satisfaction only at the final generation step. Published in IEEE TPAMI, it outperformed six rival projection and guidance methods on four simulated benchmarks including D3IL robotic manipulation, Maze2D, physical process control, and image editing. All results are simulation-only, with no independent reproduction yet reported.

Hacker News · security · 2d agoAI researchHN 24↑ · 25 comments

Claude Fable 5.1 Solves the Cyphral Distich, a 370-year-old cipher

Claude Fable 5.1 solved Sir Thomas Urquhart's 370-year-old Cyphral Distich cipher, recovering a hidden royalist prayer for Charles II.

Vals AI reports that Claude Fable 5.1 solved the Cyphral Distich, a 64-number cryptogram from Sir Thomas Urquhart's Logopandecteision unsolved since 1653, in 44 minutes using 176k tokens with no human hints. The key insight was that the cipher's key was the book itself: each number indexes a word in the corresponding Proquiritation, taking the first letter, yielding 'O GOD UPHOLD KING CHARLS THE SECOND AND MAKE HIM THE SUPREME RULER OF THIS LAND'. The model also deciphered the larger Cyphral Octastich (285 numbers) from The Jewel (1652) using page-based word indexing, recovering all but nine letters of a royalist prayer. The puzzle had been listed among Klaus Schmeh's Top 50 unsolved encrypted messages.

Hacker News · AI · 3d agoAI researchHN 63↑ · 6 comments1· 1 read

Label-Guided Knowledge Distillation for 3D-CNNs in Action Recognition

LGKD uses ground-truth labels to guide feature distillation for 3D-CNNs, combining sample-wise and class-wise distillation for action recognition.

The paper proposes Label-Guided Knowledge Distillation (LGKD) for 3D-CNNs, noting that most video feature distillation methods are simple adaptations of image techniques that neglect temporal-dimension differences. LGKD combines sample-wise distillation, which uses label information and the teacher's probability distribution to guide features impacting temporal accuracy, with class-wise distillation employing a prototype network to capture relational knowledge among same-category samples. Experiments on the UCF101 and HMDB51 action recognition benchmarks achieve competitive results.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL · 5d agoAI research

Recreating Minecraft Is Not a Benchmark

Opinion piece argues viral demos like one-prompt Minecraft recreations are overfit 'demo-benchmarks' measuring preparation, not true model capability.

The author argues that fixed, famous demo tasks (Minecraft builds, SVG pelicans) are trivially optimizable by labs each release cycle, so they no longer differentiate model capability. The piece cites Thinking Machines' Inkling Small scoring within a point of its flagship on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index with less than a third of the parameters, and beating it on Humanity's Last Exam, GPQA Diamond, and SciCode. The proposed alternative is rotating or holdout evals such as LiveBench, ARC-AGI's private set, and held-back portions of Humanity's Last Exam.

Hacker News · AI · 10d agoAI researchHN 73↑ · 71 comments

Technical Manual for a Toolkit for Measuring Contextual Individuation in Transformer Language Models

An open methodology toolkit measures whether transformer language models contextualize fixed word forms across domains using bridge forms and layer-wise silhouette analysis.

The manual documents an open toolkit built around 'bridge forms' - identical written words recurring across two or more subject domains with a different sense in each - to test whether transformer language models individuate word occurrences by context beyond the embedding layer. It covers declarative specification of bridge forms, Wikipedia corpus acquisition, occurrence localization, layer-wise representation extraction, domain-pairwise silhouette measurement, and visualization, justifying each choice against failure modes such as sense contamination and subword-tokenization misalignment. It is a methodological and implementation reference and reports no empirical results.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL · 12d agoAI research

How Does mHC Use Its Residual Streams? Selective Routing and Near-Identity Mixing

Analysis of DeepSeek-V4-Flash shows four-stream mHC residual blocks use only about two streams effectively, with late-layer mixing providing little benefit.

The study examines the four-stream residual pathway of DeepSeek-V4-Flash, finding typical attention or FFN sites effectively use about two streams and that residual mixing is modest, occurring primarily in early layers. Replacing late mixers with identity increases C4 perplexity by only 1.9% while replacing early mixers raises it by 41%. Retaining the three largest routing weights per token increases perplexity by at most 2.7%, showing the model uses only part of the flexibility afforded by the four-stream design.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL · 12d agoAI research

Most of the bugs Claude Mythos found have never been checked by a human

Echo's analysis found only 1,900 of 23,019 Claude Mythos-found vulnerabilities were externally reviewed, 90.8% held up, but the model overstated most severities.

Echo analyzed results from Anthropic's Claude Mythos Preview vulnerability sweep across 281 open-source projects, which produced 23,019 candidate vulnerabilities, of which only 1,900 were externally reviewed. Of those, 90.8% held up as real, 1,451 of 1,596 maintainer reports were acknowledged, 97 fixes landed upstream, and 88 became advisories, but 14 of the 27 CVE-assigned severity ratings mismatched independent scoring, mostly overstated. On Anthropic's SpiderMonkey benchmark, Claude Mythos turned known crashes into working code execution exploits in 72.4% of 250 trials, versus below 1% for Claude Opus 4.6. Echo cautions the reviewed sample likely was not randomly drawn, so the accuracy figure may not generalize to the other 21,119 unreviewed candidates.

Help Net Security · 13d agoAI research

The Attention Triangle in Audio-Video Models

Researchers analyze the 'attention triangle' in audio-video diffusion models, showing bias-driven cross-attention routing causes semantic leakage and proposing inference-time interventions that improve grounding.

A study probes the three cross-attention edges linking text, audio, and video streams in audio-video diffusion models. It finds the audio-video edge is bidirectional and shaped by parameter-encoded biases, so prompts in tension with learned priors can be overridden, producing visually canonical but incorrect outputs. Attention-derived signals are used as diagnostics and to guide inference-time interventions that improve cross-modal semantic grounding while preserving generation quality.

Hugging Face daily papers · 14d agoAI research