Dependency-Aware ROM/CBD Correctness Bounds for ML-KEM-768 at the Heuristic Failure Scale
Researchers certify a dependency-preserving upper bound of 2^-164.81 on honest decapsulation failure for ML-KEM-768 within an explicit ROM/CBD abstraction.
The paper models ML-KEM-768's domain-separated public-matrix streams as independent uniform ring elements and secret polynomials as CBD2 primitives, explicitly not claiming an information-theoretic result about the fixed SHAKE instantiation in FIPS 203. It preserves dependencies from the public matrix and both ciphertext-compression terms, using a graph-coupled reference, a proper-ideal bivariate Fourier transport, and a 256-coordinate union bound. The certified bound is Pr[K' != K] <= 2^-164.81, with the exponent 164.8107162... exceeding the 164.81 threshold by only about 0.0007162 bits; 164.82 is not certified. The bound applies to messages fixed independently of the randomness under honest encryption and decapsulation, and is not an exact DFR, a fixed-SHAKE equivalence, or a new IND-CCA reduction.