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Import AI 468: 23 RSI ideas; PostTrainBench+; and how trust and transparency interplay with AI racing
Import AI covers 23 IFP policy ideas for automated AI R&D risks and MIT/Columbia's game theory of AI racing slowdowns.
Think tank IFP published 23 policy recommendations across seven categories to help policymakers address risks from increasingly automated AI R&D. MIT and Columbia researchers released 'Racing to Ruin,' a game theory model showing that coordinated slowdowns between rival AI firms hinge on trust and transparency. The newsletter also links a short story on interacting with powerful AI systems.
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Large Language Models Develop Novel Social Biases Through Adaptive Exploration
An OpenReview paper reports that large language models can develop novel social biases through adaptive exploration behavior.
The paper, hosted on OpenReview, examines how adaptive exploration during language model learning or interaction can give rise to social biases that were not explicitly present in training data. It surfaced on Hacker News with 25 points and 4 comments, indicating limited community discussion. The findings are relevant to fairness auditing and behavioral evaluation of deployed LLMs.
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Evidence-Grounded Agentic Formulation Development in an Autonomous Laboratory
Andromeda 2, an agentic laboratory system, reaches a 50% high-performance hit rate for paclitaxel SEDDS formulations versus 17% for its predecessor and 2% for DoE.
Andromeda 2 is an agentic system that reasons over structured in-house experimental evidence and invokes computational and experimental tools to design and execute successive formulation batches for self-emulsifying drug delivery systems (SEDDS). For paclitaxel it achieved a 50% high-performance hit rate versus 17% for Andromeda 1 and 2% for a wet-lab DoE campaign, identifying 12 formulations meeting all four target product profile objectives versus 6 and 0. A selected full-TPP formulation reached approximately 19% w/w apparent paclitaxel loading, about 3.3-fold higher than a published paclitaxel S-SEDDS, and an ablation showed structured evidence access increased mean AUC by 34%.
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🔬“We have foundation models for language, not for physics” — Anima Anandkumar, Bren Professor of Computing
Caltech professor Anima Anandkumar discusses Neural Operators and FourCastNet for physics modeling, arguing inductive biases beat pure token scaling.
Anima Anandkumar, Bren Professor at Caltech and co-founder of Accelerated Understanding, describes Fourier Neural Operators that learn in frequency and spherical-harmonic domains to model weather, fusion, and fluid or heat flow. Her team built FourCastNet 3, a global weather model competitive with physics-based simulations that runs on consumer-grade GPUs. She also introduced TorchLean, a framework for writing PyTorch-style networks inside the Lean proof assistant for formal verification, and was appointed to the United Nations Scientific Advisory Board. She argues physical domains resist scaling due to tiny datasets and context lengths in the hundreds of billions, so progress comes from built-in structure and physical priors.
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Large Language Models Develop Belief State Geometry In-Context
Probing six open-source LLMs on HMM-generated data shows belief states are linearly decodable (R² 0.83–0.99), suggesting in-context learning approximates Bayesian prediction.
Researchers prompted six open-source LLMs with data from 40 hidden Markov models selected for non-trivial belief structure and probed residual-stream activations for belief states (posteriors over hidden states). Belief states were linearly decodable with peak R² values of 0.83–0.99 across HMM/LLM combinations, spanning early to late layers. Patching and steering the probe-identified subspace preserved downstream prediction quality while control interventions degraded performance substantially, establishing functional relevance. The results provide representation-level evidence that in-context learning approximates optimal Bayesian prediction over a context-inferred generative model.
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