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When LLM judges agree, should we believe them?

Amazon ICML paper uses Ising models to correct correlated LLM-judge votes, beating accuracy-weighted panels by 9-14%.

Amazon Science describes an ICML paper, "Dependence-aware label aggregation for LLM-as-a-judge via Ising models," addressing how correlated judge outputs inflate majority-vote confidence. The unsupervised method models pairwise dependence between judges, learning both reliability and similarity without human reference labels. Tested on relevance, toxicity, and summarization tasks with 10 judge models at temperature zero, it outperformed accuracy-weighted voting by 9% to 14%.

Hacker News · AI · 2d agoAI researchHN 41↑ · 23 comments

How Much is a Human Right Worth? ECtHR-NPD: A Benchmark for Predicting Non-Pecuniary Damage Awards

ECtHR-NPD benchmark covers 14,575 European Court of Human Rights cases for predicting non-pecuniary damage awards; LLMs struggle with zero and high awards.

Researchers introduce ECtHR-NPD, described as the first benchmark for predicting non-pecuniary damage awards at the European Court of Human Rights from case information where no statutory formula exists. It contains 14,575 cases with case-level awards in nominal euros, chronological splits, and a protocol separating target construction from model input. Evaluations covering constant predictors, gradient-boosted trees, retrieval methods, fine-tuned encoder LMs, prompted decoder LMs, and knowledge-augmented agents show sophisticated LM approaches do not consistently outperform the strongest feature-based baseline. All model families struggle to identify zero awards and to calibrate high-award predictions, with further degradation on a Challenging test view.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL · 21h agoAI research

Anchoring Clinical Events in Time: UID-Preserving Multimodal Reconstruction and Source-Grounded Adjudication

UID-preserving multimodal framework plus GAVEL LLM judge improves clinical timeline reconstruction, boosting event recovery 43% over prior matching.

The paper introduces a UID-preserving framework linking each narrative clinical event to its source span through text-only estimation, structured-evidence retrieval, timestamped source-row grounding, and joint revision. GAVEL, an LLM judge, compares UID-aligned timelines against narrative and structured records. Across six open-weight models and 40 mixed-critical-care summaries, GLM 5.2 multimodal revision improved temporal agreement without reducing event recovery and performed competitively with clinician annotations, while DeepSeek V3.2 did not benefit from multimodality. The pipeline achieves 43% increased event recovery with occurrence-level provenance.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL · 5d agoAI research1