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Large Language Models Develop Belief State Geometry In-Context

Probing six open-source LLMs on HMM-generated data shows belief states are linearly decodable (R² 0.83–0.99), suggesting in-context learning approximates Bayesian prediction.

Researchers prompted six open-source LLMs with data from 40 hidden Markov models selected for non-trivial belief structure and probed residual-stream activations for belief states (posteriors over hidden states). Belief states were linearly decodable with peak R² values of 0.83–0.99 across HMM/LLM combinations, spanning early to late layers. Patching and steering the probe-identified subspace preserved downstream prediction quality while control interventions degraded performance substantially, establishing functional relevance. The results provide representation-level evidence that in-context learning approximates optimal Bayesian prediction over a context-inferred generative model.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL · 23h agoAI research

Sakana AI Researchers Introduce PC-ALM, a Layer-Local Alternative to Backpropagation That Trains 1000-Layer Networks

Sakana AI's PC-ALM adds per-layer Lagrange multipliers to predictive coding, matching backprop on networks up to 1000 layers with layer-local updates.

Sakana AI researchers propose Augmented Lagrangian Predictive Coding (PC-ALM), a training method that keeps every update layer-local while recovering backprop-aligned credit signals. The team proves multipliers converge to exact backprop adjoints in linear networks and trains 1000-layer residual MLPs on MNIST within about 2 points of backprop accuracy. PC-ALM matched backprop across a width/depth grid from 8 to 128 on MNIST and Fashion-MNIST where standard predictive coding failed in deep, narrow networks, and improved over PC on ResNet-18 with CIFAR-10 and Tiny ImageNet. An MIT-licensed JAX reference implementation reproduces the results on CPU.

MarkTechPost · 1d agoAI research1

The Router Within: Eliciting Native Skill Routing from a Frozen LLM

Gavel reads skill-routing signals from a frozen LLM's forward passes with two linear maps, beating retrieval pipelines by up to 21.9 points.

Gavel (Glance And Verdict) shows a frozen agent LLM already contains skill-routing signals in its forward passes, read out via two trained linear maps without loading skill text into context. A glance step scores the full library using mid-layer states and per-skill banks built in one forward pass; a verdict step fuses the model's own likelihood and yes/no judgment as a product of experts. Trained once, it transfers zero-shot to three public benchmarks and SkillTraj (372 simulated agent trajectories); on Qwen3-32B it beats progressive disclosure and retrieve-and-rerank pipelines adding 1.2B-16B external parameters by up to 13.4 points (21.9 mid-rollout).

Nums AI Releases Causilo: A Tabular Foundation Model That Tops TabArena Among Single Models

Nums AI released Causilo, an Apache-2.0 tabular foundation model achieving the highest single-model Elo (1794) on TabArena for classification and regression.

Nums AI released Causilo 1.0.1, a pretrained in-context learning tabular foundation model for classification (up to 10 classes) and regression, with Apache-2.0 code and research-only weights on Hugging Face. It achieved the highest single-model TabArena Elo of 1792.9 overall, beating TabFM (1764.4) and EXAONE Tabular (1758.8), and a maintainer re-run placed it 3rd of 88 including system entries. It also ranked first by CRPS, R² and RMSE on ScoringBench across 101 datasets, and was fastest on fit and predict versus TabICLv2 and TabPFN-3 on an H100 GPU at 8.15 GiB memory. The model was pretrained only on synthetic data, uses cross-attention to keep cost linear in feature count, and version 1.0.1 adds quantile outputs via 999 native quantiles.

MarkTechPost · 11h agoModel release

GAUGE: A Formal Framework for Measuring Cryptographic Security under Heterogeneous Adversary Cost Models

GAUGE frames cryptographic security as profiles over adversary cost models, certifying a ranking reversal between ML-KEM-512 and AES-128 from a 4–5% memory pricing shift.

GAUGE represents cryptographic security as a function over admissible adversary cost models (a security profile), proves profiles are piecewise-linear and concave, and establishes a rating trilemma when two profiles cross. A polynomial-time linear-programming procedure certifies whether the ranking of two schemes is robust, reverses under admissible models, or is genuinely incomparable. Applied to NIST post-quantum standards, the framework certifies a ML-KEM-512 versus AES-128 ranking reversal from a 4–5% shift in memory pricing and measures lattice-sieving cost drift of 9.79 bits per year over eight years. A hybrid X25519 + ML-KEM-768 handshake reduces combined-break probability twenty-fold at a 2.3 kilobyte cost.

arXiv cs.CR · 1d agoResearch

Task-Directed Residual AddUNet:Perfect-Reconstruction Routing for Full-Rate Representations

Paper recasts additive U-Net skip structure as a perfect-reconstruction filter bank and adds full-rate residual routing for task-directed representations.

The work proves a constrained additive U-Net's survivor-skip structure is exactly equivalent to a critically sampled perfect-reconstruction filter bank, and removes complementary-subband restrictions via a full-rate formulation. A Residual Full-Rate PR architecture routes task-irrelevant or redundant structure away from the task pathway while guaranteeing exact reconstruction without invertible operators, a matched synthesis bank, or a learned decoder. On TIMIT, the front-end improves test PER from 28.60±2.09% to 25.76±0.41% with recognizer and training held fixed.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL · 1d agoAI research

NVIDIA Vera Rubin NVL72 Delivers Leading Performance in MLPerf Inference v6.1 Debut

NVIDIA's Vera Rubin NVL72 debuts in MLPerf Inference v6.1 with up to 3.7x higher throughput than GB300 NVL72 and 99% scaling efficiency at 288 GPUs.

In its first MLPerf Inference preview submission, NVIDIA's Vera Rubin NVL72 achieved up to 3.7x higher throughput than GB300 NVL72 on Qwen3-VL and 2.5x on DeepSeek-R1. A 288-GPU GB300 NVL72 submission across four racks reached 99% scaling efficiency on the DeepSeek-R1 offline benchmark. Software optimizations delivered up to 1.6x gains over v6.0, leveraging TensorRT-LLM, vLLM, Dynamo, disaggregated serving, and NVFP4 precision.

Agent Harness vs Agent Framework vs MCP: Which Layer Owns the Loop, State, Tools, Permissions, and Recovery

Architecture explainer separates agent harnesses, frameworks, and MCP by which layer owns the loop, state, permissions, and recovery.

The article distinguishes agent harnesses (OpenAI Codex, Claude Agent SDK), which own the execution loop, sandbox, permission model, and recovery; frameworks (LangGraph, OpenAI Agents SDK, Microsoft Agent Framework), which supply composable primitives; and MCP, a stateless JSON-RPC wire protocol governed by the Linux Foundation's Agentic AI Foundation since December 2025. An ownership matrix maps the execution loop, state, tool transport, permissions, recovery, sandboxing, and multi-agent orchestration to each layer. The 2026-07-28 MCP specification made the protocol fully stateless, retiring the initialize handshake and session headers.

MarkTechPost · 1d agoAI research1

Decoy Direction Optimization: A Post-Hoc Defense Against LLM Abliteration

Researchers introduce Decoy Direction Optimization, a cheap weight-editing defense that blinds refusal-direction ablation attacks against open-weight LLM safety guardrails.

Refusal Feature Ablation bypasses safety guardrails in open-weight LLMs by projecting out a linear refusal direction, often with high attack success rates. Decoy Direction Optimization injects a high-magnitude nonlinear decoy into MLP neurons so attackers' contrastive estimators ablate a harmless orthogonal feature instead. Evaluated across six model families, DDO keeps ASR below 10% under standard RFA and on Llama-3-8B-Instruct reduces Heretic weight-level attack ASR from 88.7% to 18%. It costs 30 to 450 times less per configuration than trained defense baselines.

When Agents Slow Down: Understanding LLM Agents' Test-Time Strategies via Elo-per-token Analysis

Elo-per-token analysis shows LLM agents' marginal gains drop below independent sampling at scale; parallel sessions beat one long session.

The paper proposes Elo-per-token analysis, using a Bradley-Terry model to measure how agent performance scales with token budget on open-ended tasks with continuous scoring. Across four agents and four benchmarks with sessions up to 100M tokens, agents initially convert tokens to Elo faster than independent sampling but eventually slow below the linear-in-log-compute reference. The authors define a scaling inflection point and show that splitting 100M tokens across parallel sessions on FrontierCS Polyomino Packing gains +264 Elo over one long session and +355 over ten short sessions. Human contestants on shared AtCoder Heuristic Contest tasks improve superlinearly, indicating headroom over current agents.

Hugging Face daily papers · 2d agoAI research3· 2 reads