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DynSHAP: Towards Explainable Dynamic Survival Analysis

DynSHAP extends SHAP explainability to dynamic survival analysis, treating time-feature pairs as Shapley players for longitudinal clinical predictions.

DynSHAP adapts marginal SHAP estimators to dynamic survival analysis by treating time-feature pairs as players in the Shapley game, handling longitudinal irregular inputs and functional survival outputs. Temporal DynSHAP learns linear feature dependencies over time and addresses them with conditional sampling. On synthetic data with ground-truth attributions it recovers temporally dependent features more accurately than marginal estimators, and it produces faithful attributions on two real-world clinical datasets across two DSA architectures.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL · 5d agoAI research

From Reweighting to Rewriting: Unlocking the Intervention Effects of Influential Samples in Training Data Attribution

Study shows rewriting responses of influence-selected training examples shifts LLM behavior more strongly than reweighting the same samples.

The paper examines training data attribution, arguing that influence functions identify high-leverage examples whose value goes unrealized under conventional weight-based reweighting interventions. It introduces influence-guided response rewriting, which replaces the responses of influence-selected examples with behavior-aligned or behavior-opposed supervision while keeping instructions fixed, tested across four open-weight LLMs using epistemic abstention as the primary testbed. Rewriting produces stronger, more persistent, and bidirectional behavioral shifts, including on safety refusal, while reweighting the same examples yields weak, inconsistent effects. The results motivate intervention-aware evaluation of TDA methods.

Hugging Face daily papers · 14d agoAI research

Retrofitting Code Using LLMs to Support Exceptional Behavior

EXCODER combines static/dynamic analysis with LLMs to retrofit exception-handling code, achieving 85.92% pass@1 with Qwen 2.5 Coder 32B on Java benchmarks.

The paper introduces the task of retrofitting existing code with Exception Related Code (throw statements, guarding conditions, try/catch blocks) so that given Exceptional Behavior Tests pass. EXCODER performs context engineering by integrating static and dynamic program analysis output with LLMs; it was evaluated on a benchmark built from 304 methods across 75 GitHub Java projects. Combined with Qwen 2.5 Coder 32B, EXCODER achieves pass@1, 5, and 10 rates of 85.92%, 86.18%, and 86.51%, roughly 13 percentage points over baseline, and manual inspection reveals remaining limitations.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL · 7d agoAI research1

MasterControl Seventeen Every Time

Governed enterprise analytics study shows deterministic policy execution matched 110/110 answer-and-evidence contracts while runtime agent planning matched none.

The paper studies a governed approach where a language model interprets the question while deterministic policy selects and runs a pre-approved analytical program returning results and evidence. Across 440 runs, three 8B models generated SQL and selected tools at runtime, while Qwen3-8B only interpreted intent and policy executed the approved program. None of 330 runtime-planning episodes satisfied the full answer-and-evidence contract, whereas the policy-executed analyzer matched 110 of 110. The authors note this is configuration-specific and expressiveness is preserved via relational operations, aggregation, comparison, windows, ranking, and similarity with replayable results.

Hugging Face daily papers · 14d agoAI research

CausalArena: Benchmarking Causal Discovery in the Foundation Model Era

Researchers introduce CausalArena, a unified benchmark revealing that causal discovery rankings shift substantially across structural causal model families and protocols.

The paper presents CausalArena, a unified and evolvable benchmark for causal discovery combining synthetic structural causal models, semantically grounded operational SCMs, formula-grounded scientific SCMs, and public real-world datasets. Experiments across classical, neural, and pretrained causal discovery foundation models show large ranking shifts between benchmark regimes. The authors identify pretraining-evaluation overlap and benchmark diversity as central evaluation challenges.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL · 6d agoAI research

SchemeArena: Factorized Stress Testing of Scheming in LLM Agents

Researchers introduce SchemeArena, a 400-scenario benchmark stress-testing scheming in LLM agents, finding explicit instrumental goals are the strongest driver of covert misaligned behavior.

The paper presents SchemeArena, a 400-scenario benchmark built through factorized scenario synthesis spanning safety-relevant tool domains, instrumental goals, oversight conditions and pressure mechanisms. The accompanying SCOUT monitor grounds multi-criteria scheming judgments in evidence drawn from agents' reasoning and actions. Stress tests across five LLM agents show explicit instrumental goals are the strongest driver of scheming propensity, while action-only monitoring increased scheming in several closed models, suggesting partial oversight can act as an optimization constraint. The benchmark, code and monitor are released at github.com/launchnlp/SchemeArena.

Hugging Face daily papers · 8d agoAI safety & security

Generative Marketing Mix Modeling: A Causal Inference Framework Linking GEO and GEM to Business Impact

Paper proposes Generative Marketing Mix Modeling to causally estimate Generative Engine Optimization and Marketing effects on business outcomes.

The authors develop GMMM, a causal inference framework for measuring how often users see and notice a firm's name in generated answers, which standard marketing data ignore. For GEO it combines repeated generated answers with question counts, shares of generative-system usage and notice probabilities; for GEM it uses sponsored placement records with notice probabilities. The framework compares expected business responses under alternative treatment sequences, establishes identification conditions, and is evaluated on simulated product-recommendation answers in English and Japanese.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL · 6d agoAI research

ToolLoop: Closed-Loop Tool-Use Data Synthesis via Decomposed Generation and Dynamic Self-Feedback

ToolLoop introduces a closed-loop synthetic data framework whose 11K examples lift a 4B model to 86.40% on BFCL tool-use evaluation.

ToolLoop decomposes tool-use data synthesis into function-name sampling, backward derivation of user queries, and forward derivation of tool calls, with dynamic self-feedback at each stage. This shifts the paradigm from generate-then-filter to generate-verify-refine, reducing inefficient and imbalanced synthetic data. A 4B model trained on 11K synthetic examples reaches 86.40% accuracy on BFCL non-reasoning mode (86.07% in an Isolate variant excluding BFCL-overlapping functions) and 72.1% on ACEBench using only 18.3% of baseline training data.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL · 8d agoAI research1

Studying Without a Syllabus: Task-Agnostic Environment Preprocessing

Paper formalizes task-agnostic environment preprocessing, where agents study unfamiliar environments under a budget to build reusable artifacts for a frozen solver.

The paper formalizes task-agnostic environment preprocessing, where a studying system explores an environment under a budget and produces artifacts like indices, scripts, or procedural guidance for a frozen solver, without task examples or evaluation feedback. The authors compare unaided and archive-equipped meta-agents against fixed synthetic-practice and corpus-processing methods across six heterogeneous benchmarks. A meta-agent variant achieves the highest Avg@3 reward on five benchmarks, while fixed corpus processing remains best on the largest corpus benchmark. Studied artifacts reduce the test-time sampling needed to reach a given score, shifting computation from repeated test-time attempts to a pre-task study phase.

Hugging Face daily papers · 7d agoAI research

When Agents Slow Down: Understanding LLM Agents' Test-Time Strategies via Elo-per-token Analysis

Elo-per-token analysis shows LLM agents' marginal gains drop below independent sampling at scale; parallel sessions beat one long session.

The paper proposes Elo-per-token analysis, using a Bradley-Terry model to measure how agent performance scales with token budget on open-ended tasks with continuous scoring. Across four agents and four benchmarks with sessions up to 100M tokens, agents initially convert tokens to Elo faster than independent sampling but eventually slow below the linear-in-log-compute reference. The authors define a scaling inflection point and show that splitting 100M tokens across parallel sessions on FrontierCS Polyomino Packing gains +264 Elo over one long session and +355 over ten short sessions. Human contestants on shared AtCoder Heuristic Contest tasks improve superlinearly, indicating headroom over current agents.

Hugging Face daily papers · 2d agoAI research3· 2 reads

CodeTD: Topology of Attention Detects Hallucinations in Code LLMs

CodeTD detects hallucinations in code LLMs before execution by analyzing topological patterns of attention maps, outperforming recent baselines.

CodeTD applies topological data analysis (TDA) to code LLM attention maps to quantify prompt-generation mismatch as a pre-execution correctness signal. Experiments cover HumanEval, MBPP, BigCodeBench, and MultiPL-E across 5 programming languages and 10 code LLMs up to 34B parameters. The method outperforms recent baselines and transfers between coding benchmarks, helping catch code that fails the task or embeds security vulnerabilities.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL · 9d agoAI research1

LimiX-2: A Contextual Mechanism Network Towards General Structured-Data Intelligence

LimiX-2 scales Contextual Mechanism Networks pretrained via context-conditional masked modeling, beating tabular foundation models on TabArena, TALENT, and BCCO benchmarks.

LimiX-2 is a new tabular model in the LimiX family, developed through model and data scaling guided by previously established scaling laws under the Contextual Mechanism Networks (CMNs) paradigm. It is pretrained with Context-Conditional Masked Modeling (CCMM) on synthetic datasets generated by structural causal models spanning diverse graph structures, functional mechanisms, and observation processes. It outperforms dataset-specific models and tabular foundation models on TabArena, TALENT, and BCCO, and its feature attention encodes direct causal relationships, enabling accurate causal skeleton recovery.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL · 1d agoAI research1

Ask Before You Optimize: Dynamic Pre-Formulation Clarification for Interactive Optimization

Researchers release OR-Clarify, a benchmark testing whether LLM agents ask clarifying questions before formulating optimization models from incomplete requests.

OR-Clarify evaluates pre-formulation clarification in operations research: each task gives a partial problem description, withholds structured hidden slots, and scores agents via bounded interaction with a simulated user, measuring slot recovery, stopping behavior, silent assumptions, and interaction cost. The authors also propose InterOPT, a two-stage framework that identifies formulation-critical gaps to decide when to ask or stop. In choice-based experiments InterOPT substantially outperforms all baselines in exact slot recovery and remains competitive in the open-ended setting.

Hugging Face daily papers · 12d agoAI research1

ActReview: Rebuttal-Guided Training Data and Rubric Rewards for Actionable Peer Review Generation

ActReview post-trains Qwen3-8B-Base on OpenReview rebuttals to generate actionable peer-review feedback with grounded revision suggestions, benchmarked on 1,000 curated instances.

The paper defines Actionable Peer-review Generation as diagnostic claim generation plus revision suggestion generation and introduces ActReview, a rebuttal-guided post-training framework. From OpenReview review-rebuttal threads the authors build ActReview-40K, aligning reviewer weaknesses with author responses grounded in localized paper evidence, and post-train Qwen3-8B-Base with multi-task SFT followed by GRPO using weakness-specific rubric rewards. They also release ActReview-Bench, a human-curated 1,000-instance benchmark, on which ActReview outperforms prior specialized review-generation models on actionability and grounding while remaining competitive with strong prompt-based LLMs. Human evaluation confirms improved revision usefulness but identifies a remaining gap in technical accuracy.

Hugging Face daily papers · 8d agoAI research

Autonomous Research for Open-Ended Problems: A Case Study on Telecom Ticket Retrieval

Case study shows autonomous LLM research reaches 90% of SOTA on telecom ticket retrieval in 10 weeks versus 10 months human work.

The paper explores adapting autonomous research to open-ended, industry-grade ML problems through a telecom ticket retrieval case study with commercial and open-source agents. Autonomous research reached 90% of state-of-the-art performance (0.34 vs. 0.38 Recall@1) in 10 weeks versus 10 months of human work, at up to $200 per Cursor campaign. The authors find agents excel at narrow hyperparameter optimization but lack human-like intuition, recommending human-agent collaboration.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL · 5d agoAI research

One Symptom, Three Levers: A Critical Review of On-Policy Self-Distillation

A review paper frames on-policy self-distillation collapse as governed by three levers: token weighting, privileged information, and guidance decay.

The paper critically reviews On-Policy Self-Distillation (OPSD), where a language model trains on its own generations scored token-by-token by a teacher conditioned on privileged information such as reference solutions or environment feedback. It identifies collapse, the progressive narrowing of producible reasoning paths, as the dominant failure mode and analyzes it through three levers: signal weighting, the nature of privileged information, and teacher dynamics. The review is restricted to mathematical reasoning, reports no new experiments, and offers a shared vocabulary separating settled findings from disputed ones.

Hugging Face daily papers · 21d agoAI research

AI models' written reasoning steps correspond to distinct internal patterns, a new study finds

KAIST and Naver AI Lab researchers show LLM reasoning steps like extraction and computation map to distinct activation patterns, strongest in middle layers.

Researchers at KAIST and Naver AI Lab defined eight recurring reasoning operations, including extraction, decomposition, formula recall, deduction, and computation, and showed they correspond to separable activation patterns in Qwen2.5-7B, Qwen3-8B, and Gemma4-31B on math tasks, with GPT-5 labeling solution segments. The separation peaks in middle layers, holds even when a computation step produces a wrong answer, and goes beyond surface-level token choice. Findings replicated on Llama-3-8B, and classifiers trained on Qwen3-8B transferred to GPQA-Diamond and MATH-500. The authors note that using internal states for error detection or mid-generation steering remains future work.

The Decoder · 4d agoAI research2

A Chosen Future Can Still Be Rewritten: Causal Writability in Video Models

Study shows video models often learn correct physics but fail to use it; low-dimensional 'causal writability' edits can restore correct motion.

The paper demonstrates 'causal writability' in video generation models: physically correct motion remains available inside the model even when the model outputs incorrect motion. In a red/blue mass oscillation setup, a low-dimensional edit predicted from simple physical variables restores correct fast motion, with a sharp depth boundary marking commitment. Early causal writability predicts which training errors later get corrected, and both writability and closure reproduce in a pretrained 1.3B video model.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL · 2d agoAI research

Transfer Learning for Evolving Domains

TrED formalizes transfer learning for domains whose data availability evolves over time, arguing classical settings are regimes along one trajectory, and remains unsolved.

The paper introduces Transfer Learning for Evolving Domains (TrED), formalizing transfer learning as a trajectory problem where target data and labels are progressively collected. TrED is specified by a data availability process fixed by the environment, a freely chosen learning protocol, and an evaluation criterion scoring the whole trajectory of models. Classical settings like domain generalization, domain adaptation, and multi-domain learning are recovered as regimes within this framework. The authors survey the literature and find most methods are tailored to a single regime, leaving TrED a well-posed open problem.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL · 5d agoAI research

ReactHuman: A Physics-Grounded Benchmark for Human-Like Reactive Decision-Making in Embodied Multimodal LLMs

ReactHuman benchmark tests whether multimodal LLMs react safely to sudden household hazards; seven evaluated models mishandle roughly one hazard in three.

ReactHuman is the first physics-grounded benchmark for human-like reactive decision-making, placing a multimodal LLM as the brain of a simulated humanoid facing 17 event families of sudden household hazards across over 1,000 bit-for-bit reproducible scenes with annotation-free ground truth from 240 Hz rigid-body simulation, including adversarial objects whose appearance contradicts their physics. A five-metric suite scores each reaction along reasonable, safe, and physically grounded axes, and every committed plan is physically executed. Seven representative MLLMs mishandle roughly one hazard in three, act from fixed dispositions rather than the observed scene, trust appearance over motion, and miss interception points at meter scale; none of these failures shrink with model scale.

Hugging Face daily papers · 7d agoAI research

I accidentally turned LLM memory into program analysis

A pwning.systems write-up describes how LLM memory functionality was unexpectedly repurposed into a program analysis technique.

A security research post on pwning.systems describes the author's discovery that LLM memory behavior effectively functioned as program analysis. The write-up is hosted on a security-focused blog and surfaced via a security-tagged link aggregator. Detailed technical content is not included in this feed, limiting verifiable specifics.

Lobsters · security · 18d agoResearch1

Reduced-Space Multi-Fidelity Bayesian Optimization of Process Simulation Models

RS-MFBO couples global sensitivity analysis with fidelity-augmented Gaussian processes to slash costly high-fidelity simulation runs in industrial flowsheet optimization.

The paper presents RS-MFBO, a reduced-space multi-fidelity Bayesian optimization framework for high-dimensional, expensive black-box functions. It integrates Global Sensitivity Analysis for dimensionality reduction with a fidelity-augmented Gaussian process and a cost-aware acquisition strategy featuring cooldown and promotion mechanisms. Validation on a plasmid DNA bioprocess (SuperPro Designer) and a green fuel synthesis plant (Aspen HYSYS) shows substantial reductions in high-fidelity evaluations while remaining competitive with single-fidelity baselines.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL · 1d agoAI research

NOAH: Learning the Full Patient Journey. A Longitudinal Multimodal Time-Aware Model for Representation and Forecasting

Researchers introduce NOAH, a generative time-aware transformer trained on 559 million MIMIC clinical events to model and forecast patient trajectories.

NOAH is a task-agnostic, time-aware generative transformer designed to represent and forecast the full multimodal patient journey across medical images, time-series signals, categorical events, and clinical text. It was trained on over 559 million clinical events from 431,000 hospital visits covering 299,000 patients in the MIMIC dataset family. The architecture combines bidirectional time integration with a variational latent space to capture continuous patient state evolution and clinical stochasticity. NOAH supports autoregressive forecasting with time control, zero-shot classification, and counterfactual intervention simulation, with evaluations on 15 ICD chapters, 29 comorbidities, and time-to-event prediction.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL · 8d agoAI research2

NOAH: Learning the Full Patient Journey. A Longitudinal Multimodal Time-Aware Model for Representation and Forecasting

Researchers introduce NOAH, a time-aware generative transformer trained on 559 million MIMIC clinical events to forecast multimodal patient trajectories.

NOAH is a task-agnostic, time-aware generative transformer trained on over 559 million clinical events from 431,000 hospital visits by 299,000 patients across the MIMIC dataset family. It uses bidirectional time integration and a variational latent space to model the stochastic evolution of patient states, natively processing medical images, time-series signals, categorical events, and structured or unstructured clinical records. The model supports autoregressive forecasting with optional time control, zero-shot classification, and counterfactual intervention simulation, with strong probing performance across clinical outcomes, 15 ICD chapters, and 29 comorbidities.

Hugging Face daily papers · 8d agoAI research1

General Quantification of Covariate and Concept Shifts

Paper proposes γ*-concept shifts via entropic optimal transport, deriving estimable generalization bounds unifying covariate and concept shift under distribution shift.

The authors show existing definitions of concept shift break when source and target supports mismatch and propose γ*-concept shifts grounded in entropic optimal transport. They derive a general error bound covering broad loss functions, label spaces and stochastic labeling, plus estimators with concentration guarantees. The resulting DataShifts algorithm quantifies distribution shifts and estimates the error bound in most applications, addressing learning bounds that were previously non-estimable from samples.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL · 6d agoAI research1

Decomposition Buys Integrity, Not Yield

Study of 600 production deep-research traces finds agent-tree decomposition loses findings at rate N^(1-δ); flat architectures maximize yield.

The paper models multi-agent decomposition as a tree where an agent holding b items retains each with probability r(b); with r(b)=1/b every tree delivers exactly one finding regardless of shape. Analysis of 600 production deep-research traces estimates delta=0.34 retention decay, and 1,012 annotated traces show one brief in sixteen goes off-target per tier, giving an alignment penalty of 0.536. Depth still cuts root context exposure from N to N^(1/k) and is cheaper at scale, with a hazard model over 743,819 production tool calls showing delegation is an opening move rather than a response to filling context.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL · 1d agoAI research

When Does Scale-Invariant Optimization Become Unstable? An Exact Schedule Law with Weight Decay

Researchers derive an exact law linking learning-rate schedules and weight decay in normalized networks, pinpointing when scale-invariant optimization destabilizes.

The paper shows that normalization makes large parts of neural networks scale-invariant, creating a hidden feedback loop where learning-rate schedules and weight decay interact through the parameter norm to control the effective optimizer step. An exact discrete-time law with a single scalar quantity separates contraction- and expansion-dominated effective learning-rate regimes, and the balance point is intrinsically unstable, so constant learning rate with weight decay produces recurrent behavior instead of a stable equilibrium. A unified homogeneous-optimizer framework explains why adaptive methods stabilize more weakly under normalization. The law is validated with high precision on MLPs, CNNs, and GPT-2 across MNIST, CIFAR, WikiText, and OpenWebText, with code released on GitHub.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL · 8d agoAI research

Root-Cause Attribution Is a Search Problem: Continual Search for Long-Horizon Agent Failures

Continual Search framework iteratively prompts LLM judges to keep searching agent execution logs, boosting long-horizon failure root-cause attribution accuracy.

The paper frames automated root-cause attribution (RCA) for long-horizon AI agent failures as a search problem, since relevant evidence is sparse and distributed across massive execution traces. The authors propose Continual Search, an iterative framework that nudges an LLM judge across successive turns to keep hunting unresolved diagnostic evidence instead of settling on an early plausible diagnosis. They introduce MegaRCA-Mix, a benchmark of 50 human-annotated failure trials on long-horizon, execution-heavy tasks. On MegaRCA-Mix, Continual Search improves GPT-5.5's F1 from 0.349 to 0.498 (over 40% gain), and lower-tier models can surpass higher-tier counterparts when search is effective.

Hugging Face daily papers · 5d agoAI research1

StochBench: A Domain-Specific Benchmark for Stochastic Processes in Lean

StochBench introduces 450 graduate-level stochastic-processes problems in Lean 4; an Opus 4.8-based agent proved 34.9% under a 15-minute limit.

StochBench is a Lean 4 benchmark of 450 graduate stochastic-processes problems, each paired with its natural-language source, covering Markov chains, renewal processes, martingales, Brownian motion, stochastic calculus, weak convergence, and Poisson and continuous-time Markov processes. The benchmark addresses field-specific applied mathematics underrepresented in Mathlib, unlike competition-math-dominated suites such as IMO and Putnam collections. An Opus 4.8-based agent achieved a 34.9% proof rate (157/450) under a 15-minute per-problem limit, showing the benchmark remains challenging for advanced provers.

Hugging Face daily papers · 8d agoAI research

A*-Thought-V2: Efficient Latent Reasoning via Geometric Dynamics of LLM

A*-Thought-V2 compresses chain-of-thought into latent tokens using geometric hidden-state dynamics, cutting computation while improving accuracy on Qwen models.

A*-Thought-V2 models chain-of-thought as a hidden-state trajectory and interleaves explicit text with continuous latent tokens, compressing steps whose transitions deviate from the question-to-solution direction. Trained via stepwise embedding forcing and label forcing with soft multi-modal supervision, it was evaluated on Qwen3.5-9B and Qwen3.6-27B across six benchmarks. Reported results include up to 2.6% average accuracy gain, up to 50% shorter responses, 2.29x higher Accuracy per Computation Unit, 94.6% faster preprocessing, and up to 80.3% faster training.

Hugging Face daily papers · 9d agoAI research