Search: “likelihood-free-inference”

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Likelihood-free inference with nuisance parameters through normalizing flows

Researchers decompose normalizing flows to derive near-pivotal statistics for likelihood-free inference with nuisance parameters, recovering the t-test and beating Welch limits.

A new paper decomposes neural-network normalizing flows to uncover pivotal statistics in the presence of nuisance parameters using only a sample generator from the distribution of interest. The statistic is near-pivotal in the sense of minimum average KL-divergence of its p-values and can incorporate prior knowledge of group invariances such as translation and scale. Experiments show it recovers the one-sample t-test almost exactly, outperforms the Welch test on worst-case size over a constrained variance-ratio range, and delivers higher power and much faster runtime than profile likelihood-ratio techniques on small-to-moderate samples.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 9, 17:58 UTC · 7d agoAI research

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Large Language Models Develop Belief State Geometry In-Context

Probing six open-source LLMs on HMM-generated data shows belief states are linearly decodable (R² 0.83–0.99), suggesting in-context learning approximates Bayesian prediction.

Researchers prompted six open-source LLMs with data from 40 hidden Markov models selected for non-trivial belief structure and probed residual-stream activations for belief states (posteriors over hidden states). Belief states were linearly decodable with peak R² values of 0.83–0.99 across HMM/LLM combinations, spanning early to late layers. Patching and steering the probe-identified subspace preserved downstream prediction quality while control interventions degraded performance substantially, establishing functional relevance. The results provide representation-level evidence that in-context learning approximates optimal Bayesian prediction over a context-inferred generative model.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 15, 16:17 UTC · 1d agoAI research1

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FreeFlow: A Bias-free Hierarchical Transformer for Optical Flow Estimation

FreeFlow is a bias-free hierarchical transformer achieving state-of-the-art optical flow results on Sintel, KITTI-2015, and Spring benchmarks.

FreeFlow replaces task-specific inductive biases like correlation volumes and iterative warping with a single feed-forward encoder-decoder combining window, shifted-window, and reduced-resolution global attention. It reaches 0.68/1.48 EPE on Sintel Clean/Final, 3.23 Fl-all on KITTI-2015, and 3.192 1px on Spring. The architecture scales consistently from small to large variants and remains memory efficient at 1080p inference.

Hugging Face daily papers·Sep 9, 20:00 UTC · 7d agoAI research

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Det-LIME: Detector-Aware, Multi-Instance Local Interpretable Model-Agnostic Explanations for Automated Marine Mammal Detection

Det-LIME extends LIME to multi-instance object detection explanations, improving attribution for harbor seal aerial surveys.

Det-LIME adapts LIME to object detection by combining per-detection weighting, a proximity kernel emphasizing box-adjacent regions, and IoU-based matching to track instances across perturbations. It was evaluated on aerial drone imagery for harbor seal detection plus a seabird case study, and compared against vanilla LIME, Stabilized LIME, Deterministic LIME, and gradient-based attribution. Using Attribution Ratio and Max Saliency Hit Rate metrics, it consistently improved multi-instance attribution and produced box-aligned explanations useful for debugging and data augmentation.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 15, 17:20 UTC · 1d agoAI research

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SpecGuard: Inference-Time Backdoor Detection For Free

SpecGuard detects backdoored LLM behavior at inference time using speculative decoding acceptance rates, adding no extra model computation.

Researchers propose SpecGuard, an inference-time backdoor detector that repurposes draft-token acceptance rates from speculative decoding as a detection signal at zero added model-computation cost. When a trigger shifts the target model toward attacker-controlled behavior, the clean draft model's acceptance rate changes, exposing the backdoor; the paper formalizes when this signal appears and shows suppressing it weakens the backdoor. Experiments across diverse backdoor types and model families show reliable detection, including stealthy cases invisible to input-level filters. Speculative decoding is positioned as a free, always-on monitor for frequently updated deployed models.

arXiv cs.CR·Sep 10, 16:51 UTC · 6d agoAI safety & security 2 sources2

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Implementing a White-Box Undetectable Backdoor for Random Fourier Features

Researchers implement Goldwasser's CLWE-based undetectable backdoor for Random Fourier Features models in numpy/scipy, confirming practical realizability with no detectable differences from clean models.

The paper provides an end-to-end implementation of the Goldwasser et al. white-box undetectable backdoor for models trained with the Random Fourier Features algorithm, using only numpy and scipy. It derives two samplers for the core GP_d(b_k) distribution: a rejection-sampling proxy and an exact closed-form sampler verified against its analytic form. Statistical indistinguishability tests covering weight-space and functional black-box comparisons found no detectable difference between backdoored and clean models across sparsity ratios. The underlying lattice hardness reduction was not reproduced, and the work demonstrates the threat is realizable with commodity scientific-computing tools rather than specialized cryptographic infrastructure.

arXiv cs.CR·Sep 14, 22:18 UTC · 2d agoResearch

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Domain-Specific Hallucination Detection in Large Language Models

A multi-signal pipeline detects LLM hallucinations, reaching F1 0.915 on HaluEval and cutting Qwen2.5-0.5B hallucination rates from 85.5% to 37.7% via DPO.

The paper presents a hallucination detection pipeline combining fine-tuned DeBERTa-v3 classification, Monte Carlo Dropout uncertainty, and temperature-scaled calibration. It achieves F1 0.915 and AUROC 0.977 on general-domain HaluEval tasks, with MC Dropout inference raising accuracy to 93.2%. Applying DPO to a Qwen2.5-0.5B generator reduces its hallucination rate from 85.5% to 37.7%, while cross-domain evaluation shows poor general-domain transfer to SciFact (F1 0.52) and PubMedBERT fine-tuning as the strongest adaptation (F1 0.63).

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 10, 17:45 UTC · 6d agoAI research1

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Signed Rescue Routing: Harm-Aware Cascades for Efficient LLM Inference

Signed Rescue Routing improves LLM cascade efficiency by predicting when a larger model actually corrects a smaller one rather than uncertainty.

Signed Rescue Routing (SRR) is a budgeted cascade method that separately predicts rescues and regressions when escalating from a small to a large model, ranking requests by their signed difference. The authors prove this signed conditional gain is Bayes-optimal under a fixed escalation budget and add only a lightweight two-head router needing small-model output statistics at deployment. Evaluation with Qwen3-4B and Qwen3-8B on MMLU, HellaSwag, and ARC-Challenge shows better accuracy-compute tradeoffs than entropy routing and learned error predictors.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 7, 17:31 UTC · 9d agoAI research

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The Price of Sparsity: Sufficient Conditions for Sparse Recovery using Sparse and Sparsified Measurements

Researchers derive sufficient sample-size conditions for recovering sparse binary signals from sparse Gaussian measurements, quantifying an information-theoretic threshold of order slog(p/s)/log(ds/p).

The paper studies support recovery of sparse binary signals from noisy linear measurements. For sparse Gaussian designs, the authors identify sufficient minimal sample sizes for maximum-likelihood recovery in the high-SNR regime d*s/p -> infinity, yielding an information-theoretic threshold of order slog(p/s)/log(ds/p) that makes the price of measurement sparsity explicit. They also show a regime where the sample-complexity loss from sparsity is only logarithmic while computational gains are nearly linear, and prove that for independently sparsified dense Gaussian designs a sample size of order p/ψ² suffices for support recovery at any fixed error level.

Hugging Face daily papers·Sep 7, 20:00 UTC · 9d agoAI research

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Bridging Control, Inference, Transport, and Thermodynamics: From Theory to Applications in Learning

Review connects control theory, optimal transport, probabilistic inference, thermodynamics, and machine learning via free-energy optimization under constraints.

The review unifies five fields: control theory, optimal transport, probabilistic inference, non-equilibrium thermodynamics, and machine learning. The common conceptual thread is optimization of free-energy-like functionals under dynamical or statistical constraints. Selected applications are presented in reinforcement learning, variational inference, and generative modeling. The tutorial-style text assumes no prior familiarity and begins from physics principles.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 14, 17:16 UTC · 2d agoAI research

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Understanding the Impact of Model Pruning on Long-Tail Forgetting and Explanation Reliability in Medical Imaging

Systematic study finds model pruning causes frequency-dependent long-tail forgetting in medical imaging and that gradient-informed methods best preserve explanations.

Across two long-tailed medical imaging datasets, two CNN architectures, four pruning methods, and sparsity up to 95%, the study measures predictive performance, explanation stability, and faithfulness. Rare classes degrade earlier and more severely than frequent ones, while explanation reliability depends mainly on the pruning strategy, with gradient-informed methods degrading least. Mechanistic analysis ties explanation collapse to loss of class-discriminative gradients rather than vanishing feature activations, recommending class- and explanation-aware evaluation of compression.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 7, 17:44 UTC · 9d agoAI research

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Shuffling is Not Enough: Breaking Permutation-Based Model Confidentiality in Hybrid FHE Inference

Attack breaks permutation-based model confidentiality in hybrid FHE inference, recovering all ResNet-20 linear layers exactly with d+1 queries per layer.

The paper shows output-permutation plus noise fails to protect model confidentiality in hybrid FHE inference: d+1 admissible queries recover an exact permutation-invariant summary of a d-input linear layer, and shuffle-model DP amplification premises cannot hold under correctness-bounded noise. The authors recovered all linear layers of a Safhire-style ResNet-20 end-to-end from TFHE transcripts with zero error, using 5,712 total queries. Exact per-layer recovery was also confirmed on pretrained ImageNet-scale CNNs and ViT-B/16. Leaked layer spectra enable model fingerprinting, lineage attribution, and improved logit-based extraction, while suppressing them destroys inference utility.

arXiv cs.CR·Sep 11, 14:37 UTC · 5d agoResearch1

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Forgetting Only What Matters: Layer-Selective Unlearning toward Robust LLMs

Researchers introduce FOM-UL, a layer-selective machine unlearning framework that improves forgetting-utility trade-offs and resists knowledge recovery after quantization.

FOM-UL selects transformer layers for unlearning using a forget-to-retain significance score, concentrating parameter updates on layers highly influential for the forget set while leaving most of the model unchanged. It reduces residual memorization versus GA, NPO, KLD, SURE, ReLearn, and LUNAR-based baselines on TOFU, KnowUnDo, and MUSE-style evaluations while preserving retain-set utility. Under 8-bit and 4-bit post-training quantization and adversarial prompts, it maintains stronger suppression of forgotten content, addressing brittleness of diffuse unlearning updates.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 9, 16:50 UTC · 7d agoAI research1

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RelateAnything: Real-Time Open-Vocabulary Relation Prediction From Any Inputs

RelateAnything is a 53M-parameter open-vocabulary relation prediction model running at 20 ms/frame, with 2.3-3.5x higher mean recall than comparable open-vocabulary methods.

RelateAnything predicts scored relations between image regions using any predicate vocabulary supplied at inference as text embeddings, with object labels never required as input, so region sources can change without retraining. Training covers 19,103 predicates using positive-unlabeled supervision; the authors release RA-4M (474k images, 4.3M geometrically verified relations over 10,102 free-text predicates) and the OV-SGG-Bench evaluation suite. The 53M-parameter model runs at 20 ms/frame and achieves 2.3-3.5x the mean recall of the strongest comparable open-vocabulary method across cross-dataset and zero-shot benchmarks. Model, corpus, and benchmark are public.

Hugging Face daily papers·Sep 10, 20:00 UTC · 6d agoAI research1

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General Quantification of Covariate and Concept Shifts

Paper proposes γ*-concept shifts via entropic optimal transport, deriving estimable generalization bounds unifying covariate and concept shift under distribution shift.

The authors show existing definitions of concept shift break when source and target supports mismatch and propose γ*-concept shifts grounded in entropic optimal transport. They derive a general error bound covering broad loss functions, label spaces and stochastic labeling, plus estimators with concentration guarantees. The resulting DataShifts algorithm quantifies distribution shifts and estimates the error bound in most applications, addressing learning bounds that were previously non-estimable from samples.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 10, 17:57 UTC · 6d agoAI research1

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Reference-Based Bias Detection in LLMs via Relative Representations of Hidden States

Researchers propose auditing LLM bias via relative hidden-state representations, detecting bias increases with 3-50x less compute than output-level benchmarks.

The paper introduces a reference-based bias auditing method that compares hidden-state representations across model variants, such as before and after fine-tuning, by encoding sentences relative to a fixed anchor set. The resulting Representational Bias Shift (Delta-B) correlates with output-level bias change in 15 of 18 tested settings, reaching |r| = 0.84 under full fine-tuning across WildGuardMix, DecodingTrust, and ToxiGen benchmarks. Thresholding Delta-B detects checkpoints whose bias increased with ROC AUC between 0.65 and 0.99 and beats a SEAT-based baseline, while auditing a model in about three minutes with 3-50x less compute.

Hugging Face daily papers·Sep 8, 20:00 UTC · 8d agoAI research1

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Drift-Constrained Optimization: Only Direction Matters in Fine-Tuning Instruct Models

Drift-Constrained Optimization reformulates fine-tuning as update-direction selection, letting Qwen3 models improve target tasks within a behavioral drift budget.

The paper specifies a behavioral drift budget before optimization and shows that update direction is the remaining degree of freedom, reformulating fine-tuning as a direction-selection problem. In a stringent QA-only setting where instruct models must still generate multi-step reasoning at inference, a coarse layer-selective probe reverses the failure of QA-only fine-tuning. Across Qwen3-8B and Qwen3-14B, these directions substantially improve scientific reasoning and multilingual translation, matching or outperforming dedicated translation systems over 100+ languages and giving stronger initialization for reinforcement learning.

Hugging Face daily papers·Sep 11, 20:00 UTC · 5d agoAI research

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SQS: Bayesian DNN Compression through Sparse Quantized Sub-distributions

SQS unifies weight pruning and low-bit quantization via Bayesian variational learning, compressing Llama3.2 and Qwen2.5 at higher rates with comparable accuracy.

SQS introduces a unified Bayesian variational framework performing simultaneous pruning and low-bit quantization, using a spike-and-slab prior for sparsity and Gaussian Mixture Models to model quantized weights. The authors derive an efficient approximation for the intractable objective and provide a consistency result for the variational approach. Experiments on ResNet, BERT-base, Llama3.2, and Qwen2.5 show higher compression rates than prior baselines with comparable performance drops.

Hugging Face daily papers·Sep 6, 20:00 UTC · 10d agoAI research

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Cross-modal learning for SAR target recognition using optical vision foundation models

Frozen DINOv3 optical prototypes supervise SAR target recognition without EO/SAR pairs, improving classification on the heavily imbalanced UNICORNv2 dataset.

The framework aligns SAR embeddings to class-level prototypes built from a frozen DINOv3 electro-optical encoder, requiring no strict EO/SAR image pairs. At inference the SAR model operates independently without access to optical imagery. On UNICORNv2, a civilian vehicle dataset with heavy speckle and severe class imbalance, EO prototype alignment improves accuracy over frozen DINOv3, SAR-only finetuning, and unpaired distribution alignment baselines.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 7, 16:54 UTC · 9d agoAI research

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BeaconKV: Key-Value Cache Compression Guided by Beacon Queries for Efficient Large Reasoning Model Inference

BeaconKV introduces training-free KV cache compression using beacon queries, cutting long-reasoning inference memory up to 5.8x while preserving accuracy.

The paper shows recency-based KV cache compression assumptions fail in long-horizon reasoning because Thought Revisiting Tokens (TRT) re-attend to distant context such as early task-solving plans. TRT queries cluster into a small number of similarity groups, which BeaconKV exploits by maintaining compact beacon query representatives to anticipate revisited KV pairs without storing full query history. The training-free method achieves up to 5.8x memory reduction and over 4.3x throughput improvement across four open-source large reasoning models while nearly preserving full cache accuracy.

Hugging Face daily papers·Sep 3, 20:00 UTC · 13d agoAI research1

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Pre-Whitening and BCJR Posterior Distillation for Bi-LSTM Detection in Faster-than-Nyquist Signaling

Study shows nested-window Bi-LSTM architectures do not improve faster-than-Nyquist detection; pre-whitening plus BCJR distillation cuts bit error rates.

Across roughly 260 controlled trainings, processing nested intersymbol-interference windows in separate recurrent branches never significantly beat a plain Bi-LSTM at matched parameter budgets. The authors attribute the limitation to the observation model rather than architecture, and instead pre-whiten inputs and distill BCJR soft posteriors into the network. With 3.4% more parameters, the method reaches 1.05x the BCJR bit error rate at compression factor 0.8 and 1.89x at 0.7, improving to 1.47x with a wider whitened window.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 7, 17:07 UTC · 9d agoAI research

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How Lossless Is Lossless Speculative Decoding? The Role of Numerical Precision in Orthrus

Reproduction study finds Orthrus speculative-decoding trajectories match the reference model in only ~45% of cases under BF16, but 100% under FP32.

Researchers independently reproduced Orthrus, a hybrid autoregressive-diffusion architecture claiming lossless speculative decoding via intra-model consensus, testing exact trajectory matching on 1,190 prompts across 12 domains. Under BF16, exact matching occurred in only 45% of cases for the authors' checkpoint and 43% for an independently trained model, with matching probability strongly tied to reference-model response-conditional perplexity. Despite trajectory divergence, downstream lm-eval-harness benchmarks showed no systematic degradation, while FP32 evaluation yielded exact matching on all prompts.

Hugging Face daily papers·Sep 13, 20:00 UTC · 3d agoAI research1

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Why Is Video Still So Expensive? A Survey of Inference-Efficiency Mechanisms in Video and Audiovisual LLMs

A survey catalogs inference-efficiency techniques for video and audiovisual LLMs, mapping bottlenecks in sampling, encoding, token reduction, and LLM decoding.

This survey covers inference-efficiency mechanisms for visual and audiovisual video LLMs, reporting reductions in parameters, FLOPs, latency, memory, and token counts. It organizes methods by pipeline stage, covering frame sampling, modality encoding, connector-level token reduction, and LLM prefilling and decoding for systems built since late 2022. The authors compile accuracy-cost comparisons under shared host models and input protocols, identify gaps in audiovisual efficiency and standardized evaluation, and maintain a public repository.

Hugging Face daily papers·Sep 8, 20:00 UTC · 8d agoAI research

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Quenched Ensemble Sampling

Quenched Ensemble Sampling generalizes nested sampling's hard energy constraint to repulsive potentials, traversing first-order phase transitions where tempering fails.

Quenched Ensemble Sampling generalizes nested sampling's hard energy constraint into a family of repulsive potentials at the energy boundary, preserving monotone energy descent while making the constrained target amenable to scalable gradient-based kernels. On synthetic phase-transition models it estimates marginal likelihood and draws posterior samples across first-order transitions where popular alternatives such as tempering fail. Applications include marginal likelihood estimation for Bayesian neural network architecture comparison and partition function estimation in a high-dimensional continuous lattice field theory.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 14, 17:16 UTC · 2d agoAI research1

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Maverick: Private and Verifiable LLM Inference Made Practical via Matrix-Vector Multiplication Delegation

Maverick protocol delivers private and verifiable LLM inference via matrix-vector multiplication delegation, achieving up to 45x throughput gains over local inference on Qwen3-4B.

Maverick introduces an information-theoretically sound protocol for delegating matrix-vector multiplication with transparent preprocessing, efficient batch verification, and virtually no server overhead, combined with LPN-based pseudorandom masking for input privacy. It addresses privacy and correctness concerns when users delegate open-weight LLM inference to third-party providers. An end-to-end prototype evaluated on Qwen3-4B achieved throughput gains over local inference of up to 45x with precomputed privacy masks and 44x for verification-only workloads, with a CPU server using up to 128 threads.

arXiv cs.CR·Sep 9, 14:53 UTC · 7d agoResearch1

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Knowing What Not to Answer: Selective Non-Compliance in Vision-Language Models

Researchers introduce KoNA, a benchmark exposing vision-language models' failures at selective non-compliance, plus fine-tuning that improves refusal and abstention accuracy.

KoNA is a benchmark for evaluating selective non-compliance in vision-language models across five categories: False Premise, Visual Inaccessibility, Universal Unknown, Task Feasibility and Safety. It tests both query-level and component-level non-compliance using paired single and compound queries, and evaluations across diverse VLMs show models often fail to refuse, correct or abstain appropriately, with failures worsening on compound queries. Fine-tuning VLMs on KoNA examples substantially improves non-compliance accuracy while largely maintaining performance on fully answerable tasks.

Hugging Face daily papers·Sep 3, 20:00 UTC · 13d agoAI research1

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MAxBench: A Multinomial Concept Recovery Benchmark

MAxBench evaluates multinomial concept recovery methods, finding affine subspaces steer most reliably but none consistently beats prompting.

MAxBench is a geometry-agnostic evaluation framework for multinomial concept representations in language models, based on sampling from recovered concept representations. It compares 10 localization methods covering 5 geometry types across 6 concepts and 4 models. Findings show affine subspaces steer more reliably than rank-one or linear subspaces due to better non-zero offsets, manifold steering is competitive where applicable, and no method consistently outperforms prompting.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 11, 17:08 UTC · 5d agoAI research

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Scaling Automatic Research Agents via World Models

WMRL replaces environment execution with a world model in RL, accelerating research-agent post-training 3-4x and letting 4B/9B agents beat 48B/120B open-weight agents.

The paper identifies that environment execution dominates RL training cost for automatic research agents because each execution occupies an exclusive sandbox while generation batches efficiently. World Model RL (WMRL) substitutes a learned world model for execution, with Online Debiasing and Inverse-Variance Denoising to handle reward bias and noise, and the paper proves both improve convergence guarantees. WMRL accelerates training 3-4x across tasks and outperforms standard RL baselines; post-trained 4B and 9B agents beat 48B and 120B open-weight agents on held-out benchmarks. WMRL also transfers to post-training embodied VLA policies.

Hugging Face daily papers·Aug 28, 20:00 UTC · 19d agoAI research1

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NCP-ArchPreview Technical Report: Moving towards Latent Space Language Models through Next Concept Prediction

An 8.9B-parameter latent-space language model using next-concept prediction matches OLMo-3-7B pretraining loss with only 51.3% of the training tokens.

NCP-ArchPreview augments next-token prediction with Next Concept Prediction over a product-quantized concept vocabulary built from hidden states, trained jointly end-to-end. The 8.9B model was trained on 5.73T tokens from the Dolma-3 dataset, the largest latent-space language model demonstration to date. It consumes 51.3% of the tokens to reach OLMo-3-7B's final pretraining loss and outperforms it by 2.45 points on the downstream macro-average, including a 5.99-point GSM8K gain. The learned latent space also enables lightweight domain adaptation via a 17M-parameter VQ module and improves speculative drafting accepted length by 4.17%.

Hugging Face daily papers·Sep 8, 20:00 UTC · 8d agoAI research1

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Target leakage, not model class, explains reported accuracy in survey-based cardiovascular screening: a leakage-tiered audit of glass-box and tabular foundation models

Audits of 10 classifiers on BRFSS show target leakage, not model class, drives the reported 0.89 AUROC in survey-based cardiovascular screening.

The study benchmarks ten model classes, including glass-box and tabular foundation models, for prevalent myocardial infarction on 442,067 respondents of the 2022 BRFSS across five feature tiers of decreasing leakage risk. Removing two post-diagnostic features costs every model 0.049-0.051 AUROC and collapses performance into a 0.0045-wide band, and the explainable boosting machine matches all alternatives within 0.005 while scoring roughly 104x faster than the strongest foundation model. Frozen models transport within 0.002 AUROC to 2023 data; the authors conclude evaluation practice and feature sets, not model capacity, are the binding constraint.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 10, 17:29 UTC · 6d agoAI research1

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