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Introducing WeatherNext 3, our most advanced and accurate global weather AI model

Google DeepMind launches WeatherNext 3, an AI weather model delivering hourly 5-km forecasts from live satellite data, now integrated across Google products.

WeatherNext 3 ingests live geostationary satellite mosaics and station observations through a Functional Generative Network (FGN) mesh transformer, producing hourly forecasts at 5-km surface resolution versus WeatherNext 2's 25-km, 6-hour grid. Independent live evaluations by Brightband rate it the most accurate global weather model to date. It adds renewable-energy variables such as 100-meter turbine-height wind speeds and solar radiation, and is integrated across Search, Gemini, Maps, Google Maps Platform, and Cloud.

Google DeepMind · 13d agoModel release

Competence-Gated Pooling of Language Models and Priors for Event Forecasting

Paper proposes a competence gate pooling language model forecasts with external priors, improving Brier score from 0.0771 to 0.0732 across 2,357 binary questions.

The paper defines a language model's relative competence as its marginal value beyond an available external forecast, and derives conditions under Brier loss where model disagreement improves that forecast. A competence gate estimates domain-level source weights from resolved outcomes, shrinks uncertain estimates toward a global weight, and recalibrates the pooled forecast. Across 2,357 resolved binary questions and five language models, it improves the external baseline from 0.0771 to 0.0732 Brier and beats global forecast combinations, though it defers to the market on ForecastBench. Across four Qwen models, verbal confidence failed to identify when the model outperformed the external forecast, while outcome-estimated competence supported better abstention.

Hugging Face daily papers · 6d agoAI research

Google's new AI model predicts the future from sales data, weather, and discount schedules

Google Research released TimesFM-3, a 330M-parameter multivariate time series forecasting model that tops Gift-Eval, FEV-Bench, and Time benchmarks and is on Hugging Face.

Google Research released TimesFM-3, a 330-million-parameter Transformer-based time series forecasting model trained on more than one trillion real and synthetic data points. It works zero-shot and adds multivariate support, ingesting related series, historical-only covariates, and known future events such as discount schedules and weather forecasts, while filling all future time steps in a single one-shot pass. Google reports first place among pretrained forecasting models on Gift-Eval, FEV-Bench, and Time, ahead of Amazon's Chronos-2, the Toto-2.0 family, and its own TimesFM-2.5. Weights are available on GitHub and Hugging Face, with BigQuery integration planned in the coming weeks.

The Decoder · 4d agoModel release2

Evaluating Time-Series Foundation Models and Multimodal Dietary Context for CGM Forecasting

Study finds zero-shot time-series foundation models underperform on CGM forecasting; fine-tuned Chronos-Bolt cuts RMSE up to 18.4% and dietary context adds signal.

The paper evaluates time-series foundation models for continuous glucose monitoring forecasting across eight public datasets covering Type 1 diabetes, Type 2 diabetes, and non-diabetes populations. Under a unified protocol, zero-shot foundation models did not consistently outperform baselines like Elastic Net and PatchTST, but lightweight fine-tuning did, with fine-tuned Chronos-Bolt reducing RMSE by 6.5%-18.4% in the T1D cohort and 8.6%-18.2% in the non-diabetes/T2D cohort. A residual-based fusion framework adding dietary context from CGMacros reduced overall RMSE by about 3% and postprandial RMSE by about 15% versus CGM-only baselines.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL · 5d agoAI research

University of Manchester Uses NVIDIA Earth-2 to Forecast Air Pollution Across the UK

University of Manchester retrained NVIDIA Earth-2 CorrDiff and StormCast on Isambard-AI to forecast UK air pollution at 2-3 km resolution.

University of Manchester researchers led by professor David Topping adapted NVIDIA's Earth-2 generative AI frameworks to forecast air pollution across the UK. Earth-2 CorrDiff was retrained in two days on a single eight-GPU node of Isambard-AI (5,448 GH200 Grace Hopper Superchips, 21 exaflops) using a year of hourly simulated pollution data, producing a UK-wide model at 2-3 square kilometer resolution. The team added Earth-2 StormCast for time-dependent forecasts that ingest real air quality observations, and demonstrated the workflow runs on the DGX Spark desktop AI system. Open-source training data and workflows are planned so other countries and cities can build similar pollution models.

NVIDIA Blog · 12h agoAI industry

NOAH: Learning the Full Patient Journey. A Longitudinal Multimodal Time-Aware Model for Representation and Forecasting

Researchers introduce NOAH, a generative time-aware transformer trained on 559 million MIMIC clinical events to model and forecast patient trajectories.

NOAH is a task-agnostic, time-aware generative transformer designed to represent and forecast the full multimodal patient journey across medical images, time-series signals, categorical events, and clinical text. It was trained on over 559 million clinical events from 431,000 hospital visits covering 299,000 patients in the MIMIC dataset family. The architecture combines bidirectional time integration with a variational latent space to capture continuous patient state evolution and clinical stochasticity. NOAH supports autoregressive forecasting with time control, zero-shot classification, and counterfactual intervention simulation, with evaluations on 15 ICD chapters, 29 comorbidities, and time-to-event prediction.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL · 7d agoAI research2

NOAH: Learning the Full Patient Journey. A Longitudinal Multimodal Time-Aware Model for Representation and Forecasting

Researchers introduce NOAH, a time-aware generative transformer trained on 559 million MIMIC clinical events to forecast multimodal patient trajectories.

NOAH is a task-agnostic, time-aware generative transformer trained on over 559 million clinical events from 431,000 hospital visits by 299,000 patients across the MIMIC dataset family. It uses bidirectional time integration and a variational latent space to model the stochastic evolution of patient states, natively processing medical images, time-series signals, categorical events, and structured or unstructured clinical records. The model supports autoregressive forecasting with optional time control, zero-shot classification, and counterfactual intervention simulation, with strong probing performance across clinical outcomes, 15 ICD chapters, and 29 comorbidities.

Hugging Face daily papers · 8d agoAI research1

Anthropic built an economic model that frames its CEO's bleakest job forecasts as an outlier scenario

Anthropic published an economic model with three US economic scenarios through 2030, framing CEO Dario Amodei's bleakest job-loss forecasts as the outlier outcome.

Anthropic released an economic model outlining three scenarios for AI's impact on the US economy through 2030. The modest scenario resembles the internet's impact with stable wages, the middle scenario doubles growth while knowledge worker wages stagnate, and the extreme scenario projects 17.9% knowledge worker unemployment with labor's GDP share falling from 60% to 45%. CEO Dario Amodei's May 2025 warning of up to half of entry-level office jobs vanishing and 10-20% unemployment aligns with the extreme scenario, which the model treats as the least likely outcome.

The Decoder · 6d agoAI industry1

September 2026 Patch Tuesday forecast: All we need is more time

September 2026 Patch Tuesday forecast expects record CVE volume after August's 398 fixes, with SharePoint flaws CVE-2026-55040 and CVE-2026-63520 actively exploited.

This Patch Tuesday forecast column notes August 2026 Patch Tuesday was the second largest ever with 398 resolved CVEs, yet only one was confirmed actively exploited. SharePoint flaws CVE-2026-55040 and CVE-2026-63520 are being chained for authentication bypass and remote code execution in active attacks against unpatched servers. Microsoft Defender's ShieldBreak elevation of privilege flaw (CVE-2026-69414) is publicly disclosed with PoC code and a fix is expected, while Chrome CVE-2026-85046 was reported exploited in the wild. Several products, including Windows 11 24H2 Home/Pro and Exchange Server 2016/2019 ESU, reach end of support in October 2026.

Help Net Security · 7d agoAdvisory in the wildCVE-2026-55040CVE-2026-63520CVE-2026-62911+5 CVEs1

Google’s AI weather model now uses more raw satellite data

Google launched WeatherNext 3, an AI weather model using raw satellite data that beats ECMWF and now powers Search, Gemini, and Maps.

Google released WeatherNext 3, an AI weather forecasting model that incorporates physical surface information (land/ocean type and elevation) to improve surface temperature and dewpoint calculations, improving point location temperature accuracy by up to 30 percent. Its white paper reports roughly 5 percent better upper-atmosphere accuracy than WeatherNext 2, equating to about six additional hours of forecast lead time, outperforming the ECMWF AI model on these metrics. The model now supplies forecast information across Google Search, Gemini, and Maps, though the paper notes unexplained short-lead degraded results and grid-shaped artifacts in some predictions.

Ars Technica · AI · 7d agoModel release

August 2026 Patch Tuesday forecast: How do we deal with the patch apocalypse?

August 2026 Patch Tuesday forecast urges risk-based triage as AI inflates CVE volume, flags actively exploited SharePoint RCE CVE-2026-50522 and LegacyHive Windows flaw.

July 2026 Patch Tuesday set records with over 600 CVEs, including 405 for Windows 11 and Server 2025, though only two were exploited zero-days and one was publicly disclosed. The author recommends prioritizing known-exploited and internet-facing vulnerabilities, matching patches to high-risk systems, and accelerating ring-based deployment toward Microsoft's suggested three-day turnaround. Notable items include actively exploited SharePoint RCE CVE-2026-50522 enabling machine key theft, the unassigned LegacyHive Windows User Profile Service flaw, and several end-of-servicing dates for Windows and Exchange.

Help Net Security · 22d agoIndustry in the wildCVE-2026-505221