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338 Million Attack Simulations Reveal The State Of Enterprise Defense
Picus Labs' Blue Report 2026, from 338 million attack simulations, finds defenses strong at the perimeter but blocking only 37% of post-compromise actions.
Picus Labs' fourth annual Blue Report analyzed over 338 million attack simulations from production environments in H1 2026. Average prevention effectiveness rose from 62% to 69%, but only 37% of attacker actions were blocked after compromise, with reconnaissance and credential theft largely missed. IOC-based malware download prevention fell to 50% from 71% in 2024, and Mimikatz credential dumping from LSASS memory was blocked 94% of the time versus 17% from other memory locations and 3% from registry.
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What breach and attack simulation needs to become in the AI era
Picus argues calendar-driven BAS is obsolete as AI compresses exploit timelines, citing 338 million simulations showing 69% prevention and a flat 14% alert score.
In a vendor opinion piece, Picus Security contends that with over 130 CVEs disclosed daily, fewer than 0.5% patched upstream, and disclosure-to-weaponized-exploit timelines near 10 hours, scheduled breach and attack simulation no longer keeps pace. The Picus Blue Report 2026, aggregating 338 million production simulations, found average prevention effectiveness of 69%, 58% of attack actions captured in the SIEM, an unchanged 14% alert score, and detection rule failures driven by performance issues (49%) and silent log collection gaps (41%). Picus proposes agentic BAS as a closed loop—simulate, validate, fix, verify—with AI-built threats and humans at decision gates.
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Water sector passes, government sector fails attempts to spot and halt simulated CISA attack
CISA red teamers compromised both a government and a water organization; water defenders detected and contained the simulated attack, government defenders did not.
CISA's red team gained initial access, elevated domain privileges, and lateral movement into sensitive business systems and cloud resources at an unnamed government organization, whose SOC ignored low- and medium-severity EDR alerts buried under thousands of false positives. A water organization's SOC quarantined phishing-compromised workstations within 2, 10, and 20 minutes, and later detected and isolated intrusions reaching the OT DMZ bastion host. Both organizations underestimated cloud risk, lacked Microsoft Conditional Access for workload identities, and had no process to revoke compromised access and refresh tokens. This is one of CISA's rare public red-team reports since 2023.
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