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Evaluating Time-Series Foundation Models and Multimodal Dietary Context for CGM Forecasting
Study finds zero-shot time-series foundation models underperform on CGM forecasting; fine-tuned Chronos-Bolt cuts RMSE up to 18.4% and dietary context adds signal.
The paper evaluates time-series foundation models for continuous glucose monitoring forecasting across eight public datasets covering Type 1 diabetes, Type 2 diabetes, and non-diabetes populations. Under a unified protocol, zero-shot foundation models did not consistently outperform baselines like Elastic Net and PatchTST, but lightweight fine-tuning did, with fine-tuned Chronos-Bolt reducing RMSE by 6.5%-18.4% in the T1D cohort and 8.6%-18.2% in the non-diabetes/T2D cohort. A residual-based fusion framework adding dietary context from CGMacros reduced overall RMSE by about 3% and postprandial RMSE by about 15% versus CGM-only baselines.
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Cadence: Error-Bounded Lossy Compression of Demand Time Series with a Time-Series Foundation Model
Cadence pairs Google's 330M-parameter TimesFM-3 foundation model with adaptive arithmetic coding, gaining 13-28% on 2026 demand series over classical predictors.
Cadence is an error-bounded lossy compressor for numeric time series combining the 330M-parameter Google TimesFM-3 foundation model with an adaptive arithmetic coder, guaranteeing a per-sample error bound. On 49 EIA-930 balancing-authority demand series from 2026 it gains 13.3% over the best of six classical predictors and 28.3% on 50 MTA ridership series, winning all 297 series-tolerance pairs with a 21.4% median gain. The paper also reports negative results, including that foundation models add negligible value for lossless coding and that PyTorch predictions are not bit-identical across batch sizes.
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Deep Learning-Based Detection of Electrical Faults and Power Quality Disturbances in Aerospace Power Systems
Compact ResNet detects electrical faults in 400 Hz aircraft power systems with 95.87 percent accuracy after deployment on Xilinx Zynq MPSoC.
The study targets multiclass fault and power quality disturbance detection in 400 Hz aerospace networks using a high-fidelity simulation model inspired by the Boeing 787 electrical architecture, covering 21 normal, disturbance, switching, open-circuit, and short-circuit conditions. Two 73,500-sample datasets are built from 1D waveforms and STFT time-frequency representations, augmented with domain randomization and class-specific GANs, and the time-series dataset is released via IEEE DataPort. A compact ResNet with 175,685 parameters achieved 96.94 percent software test accuracy, and 95.87 percent after 8-bit quantization on a Xilinx Zynq UltraScale Plus ZCU102 with 6.90 ms mean accelerator latency per record.
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Decomposition-Guided Diffusion Language Models for Inertial Confinement Fusion Prediction
ICF-DLM, the first language-model-based inertial confinement fusion predictor, cuts peak-timing error from 11.6 to 9.2 steps versus LLaMA-3-8B.
Each National Ignition Facility shot costs roughly one million dollars, motivating accurate AI surrogates for predicting 512-step neutron-rate waveforms from laser pulses and target parameters. ICF-DLM combines physics-typed decomposition into yield, peak timing, and local waveform; bidirectional denoising that defers commitment to peak location; and a physics-driven PPO reward. On ICFBench (50,000 simulations plus 232 experimental shots) it outperforms a matched autoregressive LLaMA-3-8B, classical sequence models, and LLM-based time-series predictors.
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Competence-Gated Pooling of Language Models and Priors for Event Forecasting
Paper proposes a competence gate pooling language model forecasts with external priors, improving Brier score from 0.0771 to 0.0732 across 2,357 binary questions.
The paper defines a language model's relative competence as its marginal value beyond an available external forecast, and derives conditions under Brier loss where model disagreement improves that forecast. A competence gate estimates domain-level source weights from resolved outcomes, shrinks uncertain estimates toward a global weight, and recalibrates the pooled forecast. Across 2,357 resolved binary questions and five language models, it improves the external baseline from 0.0771 to 0.0732 Brier and beats global forecast combinations, though it defers to the market on ForecastBench. Across four Qwen models, verbal confidence failed to identify when the model outperformed the external forecast, while outcome-estimated competence supported better abstention.
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NOAH: Learning the Full Patient Journey. A Longitudinal Multimodal Time-Aware Model for Representation and Forecasting
Researchers introduce NOAH, a generative time-aware transformer trained on 559 million MIMIC clinical events to model and forecast patient trajectories.
NOAH is a task-agnostic, time-aware generative transformer designed to represent and forecast the full multimodal patient journey across medical images, time-series signals, categorical events, and clinical text. It was trained on over 559 million clinical events from 431,000 hospital visits covering 299,000 patients in the MIMIC dataset family. The architecture combines bidirectional time integration with a variational latent space to capture continuous patient state evolution and clinical stochasticity. NOAH supports autoregressive forecasting with time control, zero-shot classification, and counterfactual intervention simulation, with evaluations on 15 ICD chapters, 29 comorbidities, and time-to-event prediction.
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NOAH: Learning the Full Patient Journey. A Longitudinal Multimodal Time-Aware Model for Representation and Forecasting
Researchers introduce NOAH, a time-aware generative transformer trained on 559 million MIMIC clinical events to forecast multimodal patient trajectories.
NOAH is a task-agnostic, time-aware generative transformer trained on over 559 million clinical events from 431,000 hospital visits by 299,000 patients across the MIMIC dataset family. It uses bidirectional time integration and a variational latent space to model the stochastic evolution of patient states, natively processing medical images, time-series signals, categorical events, and structured or unstructured clinical records. The model supports autoregressive forecasting with optional time control, zero-shot classification, and counterfactual intervention simulation, with strong probing performance across clinical outcomes, 15 ICD chapters, and 29 comorbidities.
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[AINews] Fal’s H3 Max Live breaks the infinite videogen barrier
Fal post-trained MiniMax H3 into a 'Max' variant with 35x-faster inference, enabling faster-than-realtime AI video generation and infinite streams.
Fal post-trained MiniMax's H3 model into a 'Max' variant and optimized it for its in-house inference engine, achieving roughly 35x the speed of the official endpoint. The optimization enables faster-than-realtime video generation, demonstrated by an infinite interactive AI-generated stream productized by levels.io. The roundup also notes Meta Muse Code's general availability with an SDK, open DeepSeek-V4-Flash-Vision-Exp weights, GLM-5.3-Flash's strong agentic cost/performance rankings, and Tencent's 770B-parameter Hy4 Preview MoE with 49B active parameters.
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