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ENCP: Episode-Normalized Conformal Prediction for Vision-and-Language Navigation

ENCP calibrates conformal prediction per navigation episode, giving step-level coverage guarantees for vision-language navigation agents despite within-episode dependence.

Episode-Normalized Conformal Prediction (ENCP) rescales a nonconformity score by a VLN policy's residual confidence and calibrates one maximum score per episode, preserving step-level coverage of at least 1−α despite dependence among steps within an episode. Across four VLN policies and three nonconformity scores on R2R and REVERIE, ENCP meets all reported empirical step-coverage targets in seen-to-unseen evaluation. The model-agnostic uncertainty estimates can signal when an agent should defer to a stronger predictor or human assistance.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL · 22h agoAI research

Understanding the Privacy-Preserving Potential of HTTP/2 Against Webpage Fingerprinting

Researchers show HTTP/2 features can emulate website fingerprinting defenses like FRONT and Tamaraw with tunable privacy-overhead trade-offs.

An arXiv paper demonstrates that application-layer defenses such as HTTPOS, LLaMA, FRONT, ALPaCA, and Tamaraw can be emulated through HTTP/2 features at both the client and server side, including proactive resource suggestion, multiplexing, and flow control. The authors propose a unified evaluation blueprint that calibrates defense parameters per dataset, combines practical attacks with information-theoretic leakage estimators, and measures overheads to map each defense's privacy-overhead trade-offs.

arXiv cs.CR · 12d agoResearch

Kalman Delta Networks: Uncertainty-aware Associative Memory

Researchers propose Kalman Delta Networks, adding Kalman-filter uncertainty tracking to delta-rule linear attention, improving perplexity and accuracy at 750M and 1.3B parameters.

The paper introduces Kalman Delta Networks (KDNs), which reformulate recurrent associative memory in linear-attention models as a linear-Gaussian state-space model where the Kalman gain weights each write by accumulated evidence and observation reliability. Two scan-compatible approximations, Diagonal KDN via online mean-field variational inference and Isotropic KDN with a single uncertainty scalar per head, enable associative scans with logarithmic parallel depth. Delta-rule updates are shown to be a special case of this formulation. KDN variants consistently improve perplexity and mean downstream accuracy over state-of-the-art linear-attention baselines in controlled pretraining at 750M and 1.3B parameters.

Hugging Face daily papers · 9d agoAI research

Kalman Delta Networks: Uncertainty-aware Associative Memory

Kalman Delta Networks add uncertainty tracking to linear-attention associative memory, improving perplexity and downstream accuracy at 750M and 1.3B scales.

Kalman Delta Networks reformulate recurrent associative memory in linear-attention models as a linear-Gaussian state-space model, allowing the Kalman gain to weight each residual write by accumulated evidence and observation reliability; Delta-rule updates emerge as a special case lacking covariance tracking. Two scan-compatible approximations, Diagonal KDN (online mean-field variational inference) and Isotropic KDN (one uncertainty scalar per head), produce Mobius-map uncertainty recurrences enabling associative scans with logarithmic parallel depth. Controlled pretraining at 750M and 1.3B parameters consistently improves perplexity and mean downstream accuracy over state-of-the-art linear-attention models.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL · 8d agoAI research1

What Does an LLM-Agent Leaderboard Rank Actually Compare?

A methodological study shows close LLM-agent leaderboard rank gaps on SWE-bench and similar benchmarks often do not support superiority claims.

The paper defines an estimand-aware pairwise procedure for comparing agents, checking common support and applying explicit uncertainty rules and practical margins. Across SWE-bench, AgentRewardBench, and tau2-bench, close rank differences are frequently unresolved, and proxy labels or utility rules can change which system is selected. The authors argue a leaderboard score summarizes a released evaluation but does not by itself justify pairwise superiority conclusions.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL · 8d agoAI research

Google's new AI model predicts the future from sales data, weather, and discount schedules

Google Research released TimesFM-3, a 330M-parameter multivariate time series forecasting model that tops Gift-Eval, FEV-Bench, and Time benchmarks and is on Hugging Face.

Google Research released TimesFM-3, a 330-million-parameter Transformer-based time series forecasting model trained on more than one trillion real and synthetic data points. It works zero-shot and adds multivariate support, ingesting related series, historical-only covariates, and known future events such as discount schedules and weather forecasts, while filling all future time steps in a single one-shot pass. Google reports first place among pretrained forecasting models on Gift-Eval, FEV-Bench, and Time, ahead of Amazon's Chronos-2, the Toto-2.0 family, and its own TimesFM-2.5. Weights are available on GitHub and Hugging Face, with BigQuery integration planned in the coming weeks.

The Decoder · 4d agoModel release2

Jev: New frontier model 40-400x cheaper and 20-200x faster

TypeSafe AI launches Jev, an early-access 'System One' model delivering calibrated structured outputs claimed 40-400x faster and cheaper than LLMs.

TypeSafe AI, founded by former OpenAI researcher Diogo Almeida, released its first 'System One Model' called Jev in early access. Jev forgoes string generation and is trained with Reinforcement Learning for Calibrated Decisions (RLCD) to produce type-safe structured values with calibrated probabilities. The company claims 70-500ms response times (40-200x faster), input pricing of $0.042 per million tokens, and free output tokens via a parallel sampling architecture. Target use cases include AI-powered workflows, real-time applications, and verification/guardrail tasks.

Hacker News · security · 20h agoModel releaseHN 59↑ · 11 comments

Verify Before You Distill: Prompt-Level Teacher Gating for On-Policy Distillation

TGOPD verifies teacher reliability per prompt before on-policy distillation, outperforming vanilla OPD across math, code, and instruction benchmarks.

Teacher-Gated On-Policy Distillation (TGOPD) estimates teacher reliability from verifier-scored teacher probes and routes each prompt either to dense on-policy distillation or to verifier-grounded GRPO, avoiding misleading updates from confidently wrong teachers under mode-seeking reverse KL. Across 4B and 35B students in mathematics, code, and instruction following, TGOPD outperforms vanilla OPD in all six single-domain settings and achieves higher seven-benchmark averages under multi-domain training. It also raises teacher-node GPU utilization from 9.8% to 78.9% in the measured 4B single-domain run by reusing idle teacher capacity.

Hugging Face daily papers · 14d agoAI research

What must happen for AI’s trillion-dollar gamble to pay off

Hyperscalers need 2.7x productivity gains by 2030 to justify nearly $1.1 trillion in AI data center spending, or risk bankruptcy and capital misallocation.

Wharton finance professor Jessica Wachter estimates hyperscaler AI expenditure will reach nearly $1.1 trillion through 2027 and that a 2.7x productivity increase is needed to break even by 2030. AI revenues of roughly $150-200 billion this year fall far short of about $750 billion in annual spending, with total investment from Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, and Oracle potentially exceeding $5 trillion over four years. Alphabet reported its first free cash flow deficit (about $5.9 billion) since its 2004 IPO due to AI infrastructure costs. Researchers warn that failed demand could make the buildout the largest capital misallocation in history, with depreciating GPU chips risking stranded assets.

MIT Technology Review · AI · 1d agoAI industry