ThinkPrior: Zero-Rollout Difficulty Priors for Cold-Start Prompt Selection in RLVR
ThinkPrior builds zero-rollout difficulty priors via an offline verifier-anchored pass, halving silent groups in RLVR and cutting wasted rollouts on Qwen2.5-Math-7B.
In GRPO-based RLVR, groups where all rollouts are correct or all are wrong yield zero advantages and consume about 39% of a run's rollouts under uniform sampling. ThinkPrior initializes a Beta posterior from an external anchor pass's verifier-scored pass rate, selecting prompts by expected learnability before any target-policy rollout, without changing the loss or optimizer. On Qwen2.5-Math-7B across sixteen seeds it more than halves early silent groups and cuts wasted rollouts through step 30 by nearly a fifth, with no detected final-accuracy difference. The ThinkPrior+DAPO composition reduces generated rollouts by 10.6% at an equal 3,840-rollout update budget.