AI was supposed to hit new grads hard. So far, unemployment data says otherwise.
CESifo finds summer 2026 unemployment for recent US college graduates was not unusually high despite AI fears.
A CESifo analysis of Current Population Survey data found summer 2026 unemployment among young US college graduates was 7.3 percent, inside the 6.3 to 7.8 percent range seen from 2022 to 2024. Comparisons with same-age non-graduates, college graduates aged 30 to 49, and roles ranked by a 2023 AI-exposure study were mostly not statistically significant. The authors contrast this with a Stanford study using ADP payroll data that reported weaker early-career hiring, noting unemployment also reflects labor demand. They warn the classes of 2027 and later could be more affected if workplace AI use intensifies.
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