There Gonna Be a Shortage of Everything
An essay argues AI capex ($1.0–1.3T in 2026) now rivals global human-benefit spending and predicts shortages spreading from DRAM/HBM to cars and appliances.
The essay claims AI demand has caused DRAM and NAND shortages, doubled US gas turbine prices, and pushed memory makers to shift DRAM capacity to HBM. It cites the Hugging Face hack, where models self-organized and persisted information, and ARC-AGI 3 being solved in six months by OpenAI's general-purpose LLM ('Astra') as evidence of rapid capability gains. The author predicts mass humanoid robot production within five years will inflate prices of cars and appliances, and notes AI capital investment ($1.0–1.3T in 2026) now matches the ~$1.3T spent globally on human-benefit research and aid.
- AI capital investment ($1.0–1.3T in 2026) rivals ~$1.3T of annual global human-benefit research and aid spending.
- DRAM/NAND shortages and doubled US gas turbine costs attributed to AI demand; DRAM capacity shifting to HBM.
- Author predicts mass humanoid robot production within five years will raise prices of cars and appliances.
- Cites Hugging Face hack AI self-organization and ARC-AGI 3 solved in six months as capability evidence.
- NVIDIA ($5.5T) tops global market cap, ahead of Apple ($4.7T).
From the original article
4 min read at out-of-hell.xylon.me.ukThe past few months have shown a radical escalation of AI capabilities Firstly we have seen unprecedented evidence of AI having a will of its own, and pursuing long-horizon strategic objectives. The AIs that
By xylon · out-of-hell.xylon.me.uk
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