Quoting Matthew Green
Cryptographer Matthew Green estimates a 15% chance AI advances functionally break confidence in current public-key encryption, urging advance preparation.
Simon Willison quotes cryptographer Matthew Green estimating a 1% chance we live in Minicrypt (Impagliazzo's hypothetical world lacking public-key encryption) and a 15% chance of functionally losing confidence in existing public-key algorithms. Green argues AI can produce cryptographic surprises far faster than humans can replace standards, even with AI assistance. He concludes recovery from such a surprise is only possible with preparation done in advance.
- Matthew Green gives 15% odds AI undermines confidence in existing public-key crypto.
- 1% chance we live in Minicrypt, a world without public-key encryption.
- AI surprise speed vastly outpaces human standards replacement cycles.
- Advance preparation is the only path to recovering from a cryptographic surprise.
- Organizations
- Matthew GreenSimon Willison
From the original article
Everyone is very concerned about being respectable, so I’m going to be the goofball who raises worst-case possibilities. I think there is a 1% chance we live in Minicrypt, and a 15% chance we functionally lose confidence in our existing public-key encryption algorithms. [...]
simonwillison.net
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