Anthropic scientist puts the odds of AI destroying humanity above ten percent this decade
Anthropic's Evan Hubinger estimates over ten percent odds AI destroys humanity this decade, following pretraining lead Jacob Coxon's departure.
Jacob Coxon, who led pretraining work at Anthropic after three years at OpenAI, quit, arguing both labs are taking a hubristic gamble with civilization. Anthropic safety researcher Evan Hubinger responded that there is a greater than ten percent chance misaligned superintelligent AI destroys humanity within the decade. More than 1,200 researchers including Dario Amodei and Meta's Shengjia Zhao recently signed an open letter calling for a slowdown, and Coxon floated costly measures such as a temporary capabilities pause.
- Coxon argues current alignment methods cannot reliably steer soon-to-be superhuman systems.
- Samuel Marks says the more senior the Anthropic employee, the greater the concern.
- Coxon cites AIs hacking their way out of secure evaluation environments as evidence.
- OpenAI chief researcher Pachocki warned no lab has solved alignment for max-speed scaling.
- Skeptics argue pessimistic predictions may harm motivation and benefit AI businesses.
From the original article
3 min read at the-decoder.com
Jacob Coxon, a former pretraining researcher at OpenAI and Anthropic, has quit and accuses both companies of knowingly risking human extinction. Anthropic colleague Evan Hubinger puts the odds of a misaligned superintelligent AI wiping out humanity within the next decade at more than ten percent.
By Matthias Bastian · the-decoder.com
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