Author argues AI bubble does not exist
Original title: I'm Not Convinced the AI Bubble Exists
The author contends AI spending is one-time infrastructure cost while citing Anthropic S-1 revenue growth to 16.3 billion in 2026.
The author of this Hacker News post argues the AI bubble does not exist, pointing to one-time data center construction costs that become profitable afterward. He references Anthropic's S-1 filing showing explosive revenue growth from 41 million in 2023 to 16.3 billion in the first half of 2026. The piece estimates industry spending of around 5 trillion dollars can be repaid over 20 years.
Unconfirmed: The analysis is the author's opinion based on partial S-1 data and estimates.
- Data center costs are one-time purchases, not ongoing expenses.
- Anthropic revenue rose from 41M (2023) to 16.3B (first 6 months 2026).
- Industry has committed at least 3T and spent 1.9T.
- Convertible notes allow debt repayment via shares.
- Google memo 'We Have No Moat, And Neither Does OpenAI' leaked in 2023.
From the original article
12 min read at matteoraso.github.io
The AI bubble is a speculative concept that the AI industry is extremely over-valued. If true, the value of most companies involved in AI (several of whom are worth well over a trillion dollars) will collapse, devastating the entire economy. If you check any online discussion about the financial situation of the AI industry, it's essentially taken for granted that the bubble exists and is going to pop any day now.
By matteoraso · matteoraso.github.io
A short excerpt; the article and its images belong to the publisher. Summary, key facts and assessment above are AI-written from the article and can be wrong.