Two-thirds of IT leaders report AI results, but few would interrupt the CEO's vacation over them
Azeem Azhar found two-thirds of IT leaders report measurable AI results, but almost none would interrupt a CEO's vacation.
Azeem Azhar told The Atlantic he asked about 160 IT vice presidents in Las Vegas whether they could show measurable AI results, and roughly two-thirds said yes. When he asked who had results strong enough to interrupt a CEO's summer vacation, only about eight remained. He said progress is real but slow, and many companies are moving from expensive frontier models toward open-weight alternatives. A Boston Consulting Group survey found about 70 percent of CEOs worldwide say AI success affects how they are perceived, which may inflate reported wins.
- About two-thirds of 160 IT VPs reported measurable AI results.
- Only about eight said results justified interrupting a CEO's vacation.
- Many firms are shifting from frontier models to open-weight alternatives.
- BCG found about 70 percent of CEOs tie AI success to their reputation.
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The AI bubble debate boils down to one question: Is revenue at AI labs growing fast enough to pay for the massive data center buildout?
A lot of smaller questions hang off that big one. How long can purchased AI chips stay useful in production, for instance? Four, six, or eight years changes the math a lot. But the most important question is whether companies are getting enough real value from AI to keep buying more of it, ideally at rising prices. So far, the return on investment can't be documented at an economy-wide level and only shows up in anecdotes.
Whether AI pays off fast enough remains "finely balanced"
Azeem Azhar, a British tech entrepreneur and founder of the research group Exponential View, offers such an anecdote. In a podcast well worth listening to with Nicholas Thompson of The Atlantic, he describes speaking to about 160 IT vice presidents in Las Vegas. Azhar asked who could point to measurable AI results. Two-thirds stayed standing. That was more than he expected. Then he pushed further and asked who has results good enough to interrupt the CEO's summer vacation. Only about eight people remained on their feet.
Azhar's takeaway is that companies are making progress, but slowly. Whether that pace is fast enough to justify current investment levels remains an open question. Some executives say their boards are growing more ambitious after early wins. Even in slower markets like Italy, Azhar heard from CEOs that trust is building and budgets are rising despite missteps along the way.
At the same time, many companies are shifting away from expensive frontier models toward open-weight alternatives. In that scenario, AI usage might grow, but the bubble could still burst because not enough money flows back to fund the buildout.
Azhar points to what he calls the "bear version of the story." A Boston Consulting Group survey found that about 70 percent of CEOs worldwide say AI success matters for how they're perceived in their roles, giving them an incentive to paint a rosier picture than reality warrants. Azhar stresses that he doesn't have a simple answer to the AI bubble question either and that the situation is "finely balanced."
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