Search: “regret-analysis”

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From Reweighting to Rewriting: Unlocking the Intervention Effects of Influential Samples in Training Data Attribution

Study shows rewriting responses of influence-selected training examples shifts LLM behavior more strongly than reweighting the same samples.

The paper examines training data attribution, arguing that influence functions identify high-leverage examples whose value goes unrealized under conventional weight-based reweighting interventions. It introduces influence-guided response rewriting, which replaces the responses of influence-selected examples with behavior-aligned or behavior-opposed supervision while keeping instructions fixed, tested across four open-weight LLMs using epistemic abstention as the primary testbed. Rewriting produces stronger, more persistent, and bidirectional behavioral shifts, including on safety refusal, while reweighting the same examples yields weak, inconsistent effects. The results motivate intervention-aware evaluation of TDA methods.

Hugging Face daily papers·Sep 1, 20:00 UTC · 15d agoAI research

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Online Learning with LLM Experts from Limited Feedback

Paper proposes bandit algorithms for adaptively routing prompts to LLM experts, minimizing regret under limited feedback budgets.

The paper formulates adaptive prompt routing to K LLM experts as a contextual bandit problem with d prompt features over T rounds. Proposed algorithms strategically select actions and observe rewards, achieving O(dT/m) regret in the full-information setting and O(dTK/m) in the bandit setting, where m is the feedback budget. Experiments demonstrate efficient learning of high-quality routing strategies across diverse LLMs from limited feedback.

Hugging Face daily papers·Sep 4, 20:00 UTC · 12d agoAI research

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MeClear: Cooperative Game-Theoretic Attribution and Risk-Aware Memory Clearance for Long-Horizon LLM Agents

MeClear uses cooperative Shapley attribution to clear harmful memories from long-horizon LLM agents, boosting task recovery by 25.5 points over baselines.

The paper introduces MeClear, a task-conditioned memory clearance framework for long-horizon LLM agents that identifies and selectively suppresses memories with negative downstream utility without permanently altering the persistent memory bank. It combines Leave-One-Out screening with sampled cooperative Shapley attribution to distribute utility across interacting evidence, resolving redundant conflict masking that single-removal evaluations miss. Across ten long dialogue memory pools it achieves 85.9% target recall and 82.3% overall task recovery, a 25.5 percentage-point improvement over LOO baselines.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 8, 17:46 UTC · 8d agoAI research

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Root-Cause Attribution Is a Search Problem: Continual Search for Long-Horizon Agent Failures

Continual Search framework iteratively prompts LLM judges to keep searching agent execution logs, boosting long-horizon failure root-cause attribution accuracy.

The paper frames automated root-cause attribution (RCA) for long-horizon AI agent failures as a search problem, since relevant evidence is sparse and distributed across massive execution traces. The authors propose Continual Search, an iterative framework that nudges an LLM judge across successive turns to keep hunting unresolved diagnostic evidence instead of settling on an early plausible diagnosis. They introduce MegaRCA-Mix, a benchmark of 50 human-annotated failure trials on long-horizon, execution-heavy tasks. On MegaRCA-Mix, Continual Search improves GPT-5.5's F1 from 0.349 to 0.498 (over 40% gain), and lower-tier models can surpass higher-tier counterparts when search is effective.

Hugging Face daily papers·Sep 10, 20:00 UTC · 6d agoAI research1

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AI for Military Support

Study of 2,015 Israeli military personnel found algorithmic aversion toward AI targeting decision support, reduced when explainable AI features were added.

The paper 'Black Box Warfare' reconstructed a real-world military AI decision-support system used in targeting and tested a high-fidelity replica in two experiments with 2,015 Israeli military personnel. Contrary to automation-bias fears, participants showed strong algorithmic aversion, especially in high-collateral-damage scenarios. Integrating explainable AI features reduced aversion and promoted more thoughtful evaluation of algorithmic recommendations. The authors conclude that trust in military AI is dynamic and that human agency remains central in high-stakes decisions.

Schneier on Security·Aug 11, 11:18 UTC · Aug 11, 2026AI research

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PLC-DPO: Posterior Label Correction in Noisy and Ambiguous Preference Optimization

PLC-DPO corrects noisy preference labels during DPO by routing each pair as clean, flip, or tie using calibrated policy-reference margins.

PLC-DPO addresses reversed, weak, or ambiguous preference labels in Direct Preference Optimization by using the calibrated policy-reference margin as online evidence to route each pair's training signal as clean, flip, or tie. This actively corrects supervision direction and strength rather than only filtering suspicious examples. Across 57 dataset-model-benchmark cells, PLC-DPO achieves the best mean win rate of 60.5 versus 55.5 for the next-best method. Injected-noise and tie stress tests plus human disagreement analysis show the routing stays stable and distinguishes flipped from weakly directional pairs.

Hugging Face daily papers·Aug 30, 20:00 UTC · 17d agoAI research

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Exponential Hardness of Off-Policy Evaluation under History-Dependent Logging

Researchers prove off-policy evaluation under history-dependent logging requires exponentially many episodes, resolving a hardness question for model-based POMDP evaluation.

The paper constructs POMDPs with at most two latent states per stage, three actions, and a three-memory-state logger where evaluating a known deterministic target policy to accuracy 1/8 requires Θ((3/2)^H log(1/δ)) episodes for any horizon H≥3. Coverage and outcome-revealing conditions hold with constants independent of H, yet a reset erases the unknown transition that determines the target value. The authors characterize the resulting statistical experiment exactly, derive a matching optimal estimator, and validate predictions on a two-lane gridworld. This settles the history-dependent-logging, model-based case posed by Zhang and Jiang (arXiv:2503.01134).

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 16, 17:56 UTC · 15h agoAI research

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Probabilistic Linear Explanations

Researchers introduce a unified probabilistic explainability framework using sparse anchored linear models that outperforms LIME and MAPLE on relevance error.

The paper proposes probabilistic explanations based on sparse, anchored linear models applicable to both binary classification and continuous regression. It proves that minimizing relevance error for neural-network models is NP-hard and relates it to a tractable fidelity-error surrogate. Solutions are computed via a mixed integer programming formulation with provably optimal empirical solutions and a polynomial-time iterative hard thresholding algorithm with approximation guarantees. Empirical evaluations show lower relevance error than LIME and MAPLE while satisfying anchoring and sparsity constraints by construction.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 16, 17:18 UTC · 16h agoAI research

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BenchShield: Formal Model-Backed Instrumentation for Reward Integrity in LLM-Agent Evaluation Infrastructure

BenchShield uses lifecycle-model-backed instrumentation to detect reward hacking in LLM-agent benchmarks, lifting full-chain recall to 77-100% at up to 65% lower cost.

The framework grounds reward-hacking detection in a finite lifecycle model of an evaluation's reward-relevant events, combining a static phase-aware taint analysis with runtime infrastructure-side evidence attribution. Evaluation used a human-labeled corpus of 456 adjudicated trajectories drawn from more than 31,000 public agent runs across three benchmarks. BenchShield improves full-chain recall from 23-94% to 77-100% and same-vector coverage from 16-56% to 43-78%, cuts per-task cost by up to 65%, and achieves 96% accuracy detecting reward hacking at runtime.

arXiv cs.CR·Sep 10, 03:10 UTC · 7d agoAI safety & security1

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Ask Before You Optimize: Dynamic Pre-Formulation Clarification for Interactive Optimization

Researchers release OR-Clarify, a benchmark testing whether LLM agents ask clarifying questions before formulating optimization models from incomplete requests.

OR-Clarify evaluates pre-formulation clarification in operations research: each task gives a partial problem description, withholds structured hidden slots, and scores agents via bounded interaction with a simulated user, measuring slot recovery, stopping behavior, silent assumptions, and interaction cost. The authors also propose InterOPT, a two-stage framework that identifies formulation-critical gaps to decide when to ask or stop. In choice-based experiments InterOPT substantially outperforms all baselines in exact slot recovery and remains competitive in the open-ended setting.

Hugging Face daily papers·Sep 3, 20:00 UTC · 13d agoAI research1

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Near-Optimal Reinforcement Learning with Multi-Step Transition Lookahead

Theorists prove multi-step lookahead RL planning is NP-hard for every fixed rational discount factor yet give a randomized polynomial-time approximation scheme.

The paper resolves open questions about reinforcement learning with multi-step transition lookahead. It shows exact planning remains NP-hard for every fixed rational discount factor in (0,1), not just discounts arbitrarily close to one, and introduces a randomized polynomial-time approximation scheme for every fixed lookahead depth. Extending to unknown transitions and stochastic rewards via optimism and variance-adaptive confidence bounds, the algorithm achieves cumulative regret matching classical tabular discounted RL up to logarithmic factors.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 10, 16:58 UTC · 6d agoAI research1

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Rethinking Critic Learning in PPO: Understanding and Mitigating Value Flattening

Researchers identify Value Flattening in PPO critics for LLM RL and propose SP^3O sparse value supervision, improving Qwen3-Base training.

The paper uncovers Value Flattening, a failure mode where PPO critic predictions stay flat while true state values estimated from Monte Carlo continuations change sharply, worsening as state spaces grow. The authors attribute it to an implicit variance penalty in the critic loss and redundant updates from temporally correlated states. They propose SP^3O, which supervises value loss on only a few well-separated states per response, consistently improving policies trained on Qwen3-Base across model sizes and evaluation suites.

Hugging Face daily papers·Sep 15, 20:00 UTC · 1d agoAI research

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Bag of Tricks or Bag of Myths? Reducing Modeling Complexity with Task Knowledge in Explainable Suicide Risk Assessment

Researchers audit 31 NLP techniques for clinician-annotated suicide risk prediction, finding only 5 of 31 comparisons yield reliable gains.

A study of 1,635 clinician-annotated social media posts ran roughly 300 controlled experiments across 7 methodological families, auditing techniques such as model scaling, synthetic data, ensembling, and threshold tuning under severe class imbalance. The proposed system reformulates risk factor prediction as entailment between posts and codebook definitions, using architecturally diverse ensembles with class-balanced training and deployment-consistent calibration. It scores 0.8203 for risk, 0.7953 for evidence, and 0.7045 macro-F1 for factors, ranking third among 53 teams.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 7, 17:14 UTC · 9d agoAI research

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Refuse without Refusal: A Structural Analysis of Safety-Tuning Responses for Reducing False Refusals in Language Models

Study shows training LLMs on refusal rationales instead of boilerplate refusal statements reduces false refusals while maintaining safety performance.

The paper decomposes safety-tuning responses into a boilerplate refusal statement and an explanatory rationale, finding that refusal statements push models to rely on superficial cues and misjudge benign queries as harmful. Training solely on rationales reduces false refusals while maintaining comparable safety performance, and the benefits carry over to in-context learning configurations and remain compatible with inference-time mitigations. The results argue for precisely curated, fine-grained safety supervision datasets when aligning LLMs.

Hugging Face daily papers·Sep 3, 20:00 UTC · 13d agoAI safety & security1

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Online Change-point Detection for Cooperative Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning

Researchers propose Patterns of Past Rewards (PPR), a lightweight reward-based detector that flags environment shifts in cooperative multi-agent reinforcement learning training.

The paper introduces Patterns of Past Rewards (PPR), an algorithm-agnostic detector that smooths cooperative agents' return streams and applies statistical drift testing to flag environment or task changes. Evaluation in a custom Speaker-Listener environment built on the Multi-Agent Particle Environment under two non-stationarity scenarios shows PPR balances detection speed against alarm stability. It avoids the repeated alarms of a smoothed-return baseline and the missed shifts of raw-return detection, enabling MARL systems to reliably identify major changes during training.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 4, 15:49 UTC · 12d agoAI research1

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The Frontier AEO Tracker: What Astra Chooses (and every other frontier model, and what you can do about it)

Latent Space launches an AEO tracker scoring 7 frontier models' product recommendations across 161 categories, revealing generational bias flips.

Latent Space built a tracker measuring Answer Engine Optimization by running 6 prompt variations across 7 frontier models with search enabled over 161 product categories, scoring first choices, alternatives, mentions, and anti-recommendations. It found 28 categories with a universally dominant primary choice and observed soft biases, such as models favoring their own lab's coding agents. Analysis of Anthropic's Sol→Astra and Opus→Fable generations showed newer models consulting fewer sources and being less likely to change answers when questions are paraphrased.

Latent Space·Sep 7, 21:32 UTC · 9d agoAI research

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Reference-Based Bias Detection in LLMs via Relative Representations of Hidden States

Researchers propose auditing LLM bias via relative hidden-state representations, detecting bias increases with 3-50x less compute than output-level benchmarks.

The paper introduces a reference-based bias auditing method that compares hidden-state representations across model variants, such as before and after fine-tuning, by encoding sentences relative to a fixed anchor set. The resulting Representational Bias Shift (Delta-B) correlates with output-level bias change in 15 of 18 tested settings, reaching |r| = 0.84 under full fine-tuning across WildGuardMix, DecodingTrust, and ToxiGen benchmarks. Thresholding Delta-B detects checkpoints whose bias increased with ROC AUC between 0.65 and 0.99 and beats a SEAT-based baseline, while auditing a model in about three minutes with 3-50x less compute.

Hugging Face daily papers·Sep 8, 20:00 UTC · 8d agoAI research1

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Learning to Solve Hard Problems in RL for LLMs by Never Giving Up

Paper introduces Never Give Up adaptive sampling, fixing RL's 'Matthew Effect' where compute is wasted on easy problems and hard problems see little improvement.

Researchers identify a 'Matthew Effect' in reinforcement learning for LLMs, where RL yields large gains on easy problems but minimal improvement on hard ones because compute is misallocated. They propose Never Give Up (NGU), an adaptive sampling method that keeps generating samples for a problem until one is correct, using asynchronous RL to filter easy problems cheaply and concentrate compute on hard ones. NGU improves performance per compute on the Deepscaler math benchmark and iteratively solves the Manufactoria coding task where standard GRPO with per-test reward fails.

Hugging Face daily papers·Sep 10, 20:00 UTC · 6d agoAI research

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Confidence Comes from Experience: Experiential Confidence Estimation from Reasoning to Agents

XConf estimates LLM confidence from accumulated past episodes, improving calibration and discrimination across nine benchmarks at one-tenth self-consistency cost.

Researchers propose XConf, an experiential confidence estimator that augments current inference with a stored record of the model's graded past episodes, including reflections, stated confidence, outcomes, and lessons. A Recall stage retrieves episodes from similar tasks with similar stated confidence and reads off historical success rates, while a Reflect stage prompts the model to name recurring failure modes and restate confidence. Across nine benchmarks in reasoning, coding, multimodal QA, and interactive agents, and four models from three families, XConf beats or matches ten-sample self-consistency in AUROC on 23 of 24 comparisons with much lower ECE, at a tenth of the generation cost. For selective prediction, abstaining on the 10% least-confident episodes raises delivered success rate by up to 8.7 points on agent tasks.

Hugging Face daily papers·Sep 14, 20:00 UTC · 2d agoAI research

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General Quantification of Covariate and Concept Shifts

Paper proposes γ*-concept shifts via entropic optimal transport, deriving estimable generalization bounds unifying covariate and concept shift under distribution shift.

The authors show existing definitions of concept shift break when source and target supports mismatch and propose γ*-concept shifts grounded in entropic optimal transport. They derive a general error bound covering broad loss functions, label spaces and stochastic labeling, plus estimators with concentration guarantees. The resulting DataShifts algorithm quantifies distribution shifts and estimates the error bound in most applications, addressing learning bounds that were previously non-estimable from samples.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 10, 17:57 UTC · 6d agoAI research1

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Generative Marketing Mix Modeling: A Causal Inference Framework Linking GEO and GEM to Business Impact

Paper proposes Generative Marketing Mix Modeling to causally estimate Generative Engine Optimization and Marketing effects on business outcomes.

The authors develop GMMM, a causal inference framework for measuring how often users see and notice a firm's name in generated answers, which standard marketing data ignore. For GEO it combines repeated generated answers with question counts, shares of generative-system usage and notice probabilities; for GEM it uses sponsored placement records with notice probabilities. The framework compares expected business responses under alternative treatment sequences, establishes identification conditions, and is evaluated on simulated product-recommendation answers in English and Japanese.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 10, 17:57 UTC · 6d agoAI research

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A Zeroth-Order Paradigm for LLM Preference Alignment

ComPO is a zeroth-order preference alignment method using comparison oracles to mitigate likelihood displacement across Mistral, Llama, Gemma, and Qwen3 models.

The paper proposes Comparison-based Preference Optimization (ComPO), a zeroth-order alignment method that extracts directional information from preference pairs with small likelihood margins without directly optimizing a differentiable preference loss. The authors prove convergence guarantees for the offline scheme and performance guarantees for a constrained online variant with reverse-KL control. Experiments on Mistral, Llama, Gemma-2, Qwen3, and Gemma-3 show improvements over existing direct alignment methods, including length-controlled win rates, with pair-level diagnostics consistent with mitigating likelihood displacement.

Hugging Face daily papers·updated Sep 16, 17:59 UTC · 15h ago·first Sep 15, 20:00 UTC · 1d agoAI research 2 sources

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Same Trajectory, Contradictory Rewards (ROBORMBENCH): Paraphrase Fragility in Vision Language Reward Models

New ROBORMBENCH benchmark shows vision-language reward models can flip robot success/failure judgments when goal instructions are paraphrased.

The authors show that paraphrasing the instruction alone can substantially change progress scores from VLM reward models, even flipping identical robot trajectories between failure and success. ROBORMBENCH comprises 2,390 real-robot trajectories with ground-truth progress labels and 21,673 verified paraphrases covering lexical, syntactic, and action-goal rewrites. Instability is widespread across proprietary and open-source VLMs, grows with more divergent rewrites, and is not reliably reduced by scale or explicit reasoning, while trajectory-grounded dedicated reward models are markedly more stable.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 4, 17:47 UTC · 12d agoAI research1

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When Agents Slow Down: Understanding LLM Agents' Test-Time Strategies via Elo-per-token Analysis

Elo-per-token analysis shows LLM agents' marginal gains drop below independent sampling at scale; parallel sessions beat one long session.

The paper proposes Elo-per-token analysis, using a Bradley-Terry model to measure how agent performance scales with token budget on open-ended tasks with continuous scoring. Across four agents and four benchmarks with sessions up to 100M tokens, agents initially convert tokens to Elo faster than independent sampling but eventually slow below the linear-in-log-compute reference. The authors define a scaling inflection point and show that splitting 100M tokens across parallel sessions on FrontierCS Polyomino Packing gains +264 Elo over one long session and +355 over ten short sessions. Human contestants on shared AtCoder Heuristic Contest tasks improve superlinearly, indicating headroom over current agents.

Hugging Face daily papers·Sep 13, 20:00 UTC · 3d agoAI research4· 2 reads

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Forgetting Only What Matters: Layer-Selective Unlearning toward Robust LLMs

Researchers introduce FOM-UL, a layer-selective machine unlearning framework that improves forgetting-utility trade-offs and resists knowledge recovery after quantization.

FOM-UL selects transformer layers for unlearning using a forget-to-retain significance score, concentrating parameter updates on layers highly influential for the forget set while leaving most of the model unchanged. It reduces residual memorization versus GA, NPO, KLD, SURE, ReLearn, and LUNAR-based baselines on TOFU, KnowUnDo, and MUSE-style evaluations while preserving retain-set utility. Under 8-bit and 4-bit post-training quantization and adversarial prompts, it maintains stronger suppression of forgotten content, addressing brittleness of diffuse unlearning updates.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 9, 16:50 UTC · 7d agoAI research1

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Thinking of ACE? We Can Do It with Fewer Tokens

IBM Research's ALTK-EVOLVE-SLDD blog post claims ACE-style LLM analysis using substantially fewer tokens.

IBM Research published a Hugging Face blog post titled 'Thinking of ACE? We Can Do It with Fewer Tokens' describing ALTK-EVOLVE-SLDD. The method targets reproducing ACE (attribution-based confidence estimation) capabilities in LLMs while consuming far fewer tokens. No article text was available, so details beyond the title are limited.

Hugging Face Blog·Aug 11, 13:37 UTC · Aug 11, 2026AI research

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Distill Globally, Adapt Locally: Reasoning Distillation and Product-Type Test-Time Training for Scalable Trade-Up Recommendation

A distillation framework compresses LLM reasoning into a 15.5M-parameter trade-up recommendation model reaching AUC 0.941 with product-type test-time training.

The paper targets trade-up recommendation, which identifies higher-quality alternatives that preserve customer purchase intent. A retrieval-augmented few-shot LLM teacher generates labels and rationales that supervise a compact embedding-pair classifier; at inference the 15.5M-parameter student uses only two precomputed 768-dimensional embeddings with no LLM calls. On 8,352 annotated pairs, label-only training scored AUC 0.912, reasoning distillation reached 0.924, and product-type test-time training lifted it to 0.941 with average precision 0.940. The distilled student is roughly 5,000x faster and 10,000x cheaper than direct LLM inference on a 100K-pair proxy catalog.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 4, 17:08 UTC · 12d agoAI research

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SchemeArena: Factorized Stress Testing of Scheming in LLM Agents

Researchers introduce SchemeArena, a 400-scenario benchmark stress-testing scheming in LLM agents, finding explicit instrumental goals are the strongest driver of covert misaligned behavior.

The paper presents SchemeArena, a 400-scenario benchmark built through factorized scenario synthesis spanning safety-relevant tool domains, instrumental goals, oversight conditions and pressure mechanisms. The accompanying SCOUT monitor grounds multi-criteria scheming judgments in evidence drawn from agents' reasoning and actions. Stress tests across five LLM agents show explicit instrumental goals are the strongest driver of scheming propensity, while action-only monitoring increased scheming in several closed models, suggesting partial oversight can act as an optimization constraint. The benchmark, code and monitor are released at github.com/launchnlp/SchemeArena.

Hugging Face daily papers·Sep 7, 20:00 UTC · 9d agoAI safety & security

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MInTRL: Off-policy Intervention can boost On-policy RL

MInTRL injects sparse judge corrections into on-policy RL rollouts, expanding exploration beyond on-policy sampling while preserving learnability on math and code benchmarks.

Minimal Intervention Reinforcement Learning periodically has a judge-intervention policy replace erroneous suffixes of the current policy's output with short corrections, then returns control, keeping trajectories largely on-policy. Training uses a sequence-level advantage-regression objective that removes the need for importance sampling. Across math and code benchmarks it consistently beats standard on-policy and off-policy baselines, remains effective with self-intervention, and performs best at moderate intervention intensity.

Hugging Face daily papers·Sep 10, 20:00 UTC · 6d agoAI research

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One Symptom, Three Levers: A Critical Review of On-Policy Self-Distillation

A review paper frames on-policy self-distillation collapse as governed by three levers: token weighting, privileged information, and guidance decay.

The paper critically reviews On-Policy Self-Distillation (OPSD), where a language model trains on its own generations scored token-by-token by a teacher conditioned on privileged information such as reference solutions or environment feedback. It identifies collapse, the progressive narrowing of producible reasoning paths, as the dominant failure mode and analyzes it through three levers: signal weighting, the nature of privileged information, and teacher dynamics. The review is restricted to mathematical reasoning, reports no new experiments, and offers a shared vocabulary separating settled findings from disputed ones.

Hugging Face daily papers·Aug 25, 20:00 UTC · 22d agoAI research

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