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September 2026 Patch Tuesday forecast: All we need is more time
September 2026 Patch Tuesday forecast expects record CVE volume after August's 398 fixes, with SharePoint flaws CVE-2026-55040 and CVE-2026-63520 actively exploited.
This Patch Tuesday forecast column notes August 2026 Patch Tuesday was the second largest ever with 398 resolved CVEs, yet only one was confirmed actively exploited. SharePoint flaws CVE-2026-55040 and CVE-2026-63520 are being chained for authentication bypass and remote code execution in active attacks against unpatched servers. Microsoft Defender's ShieldBreak elevation of privilege flaw (CVE-2026-69414) is publicly disclosed with PoC code and a fix is expected, while Chrome CVE-2026-85046 was reported exploited in the wild. Several products, including Windows 11 24H2 Home/Pro and Exchange Server 2016/2019 ESU, reach end of support in October 2026.
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China-Based Artificial Intelligence Companies Conducting Industrial-Scale Distillation Campaigns Against U.S. AI Companies
NSA, CISA, and FBI warn DeepSeek, Alibaba, and other Chinese AI firms ran industrial-scale distillation of U.S. frontier models, threatening U.S. AI leadership.
A joint NSA, CISA, and FBI Cybersecurity Advisory (AA26-251A) says China-based firms DeepSeek, Moonshot AI, Alibaba, MiniMax, StepFun, and Z.AI extracted billions of tokens from U.S. frontier models including Claude, GPT, Gemini, and Grok, likely with Chinese government knowledge. Campaigns running since at least late 2024 used native APIs, cloud providers, third-party aggregators, gray-market proxy "transfer stations", and shared premium subscriptions to bypass geographic restrictions, evade safeguards, and violate providers' terms of use. The agencies recommend detecting anomalous prompts, accounts, and usage patterns; subtly altering responses to suspected distillers; and cross-organization intelligence sharing. They also call DeepSeek's publicly cited $5.6M training cost misleading because it excludes data acquired through distillation.
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Cisco Secure Firewall Adaptive Security Appliance and Secure Firewall Threat Defense Software IKEv2 Certificate Authentication Denial of Service Vulnerability
Cisco patched an ASA/FTD IKEv2 certificate authentication flaw letting unauthenticated remote attackers crash the IKEv2 process and reload devices with crafted certificates.
A logic error during the certificate authentication phase of IKEv2 connection setup in Cisco Secure Firewall ASA and FTD Software allows an unauthenticated, remote attacker to crash the IKEv2 process. Exploitation involves attempting to establish an IKEv2 VPN connection with a crafted certificate, causing a denial of service through an unexpected device reload. Cisco has released software updates.
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Schneider Electric SCADAPack x70 Products
CISA advisory: Schneider Electric SCADAPack x70 RTUs contain CVE-2026-81861, an insufficiently protected credentials flaw allowing unauthorized access to RTU configuration.
CISA advisory ICSA-26-258-04 discloses CVE-2026-81861 affecting all versions of Schneider Electric SCADAPack 47x, 47xi, 47xd, 470R, 57x, 3xx, and 32 remote terminal units. The CWE-522 insufficiently protected credentials vulnerability could expose authentication information and permit unauthorized access to RTU configuration through the Secure Lock functionality. The flaw carries a CVSS v3.1 base score of 6.5 (medium), and the products are deployed worldwide in critical manufacturing and energy sectors. Abhinav Agarwal reported the vulnerability to CISA.
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