Search: “Calibre”

7 stories in the last 3d

CoTS temperature scaling cuts test-time prompt tuning's expected calibration error from 11.90% to 5.38% on ImageNet variants while raising accuracy.

The paper proposes CoTS, a post-hoc calibration method that applies temperature scaling to minimize the confidence gap between test-time-adapted and zero-shot predictions. A weak-strong ensemble variant, E-CoTS, further exploits multiple test-time augmentations to boost accuracy while maintaining calibration. E-CoTS reduces average expected calibration error from 11.90% to 5.38% on ImageNet variants while increasing accuracy from 60.74% to 62.95%.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CLSep 15, 16:25 UTC · 1d agoAI research

Coupled Calibration and Learning: Mitigating Teacher Bias in LLM Distillation without Target-Domain Reward Feedback

CCL couples teacher calibration with student updates via token-level branching, provably removing teacher bias in LLM distillation.

The paper proposes Coupled Calibration and Learning (CCL), an LLM distillation algorithm that alternates teacher calibration using source-question reward feedback with student training on target questions under covariate shift. Each iteration calibrates the teacher on source feedback, trains the student on target questions, and lets the updated student inform subsequent calibration. The authors prove the student's expected KL divergence to the oracle student converges to zero at a polynomial rate, and show regularized direct matching error can remain bounded away from zero.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CLSep 15, 17:15 UTC · 1d agoAI research1

ENCP: Episode-Normalized Conformal Prediction for Vision-and-Language Navigation

ENCP calibrates conformal prediction per navigation episode, giving step-level coverage guarantees for vision-language navigation agents despite within-episode dependence.

Episode-Normalized Conformal Prediction (ENCP) rescales a nonconformity score by a VLN policy's residual confidence and calibrates one maximum score per episode, preserving step-level coverage of at least 1−α despite dependence among steps within an episode. Across four VLN policies and three nonconformity scores on R2R and REVERIE, ENCP meets all reported empirical step-coverage targets in seen-to-unseen evaluation. The model-agnostic uncertainty estimates can signal when an agent should defer to a stronger predictor or human assistance.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CLSep 15, 17:42 UTC · 1d agoAI research

Confidence Comes from Experience: Experiential Confidence Estimation from Reasoning to Agents

XConf estimates LLM confidence from accumulated past episodes, improving calibration and discrimination across nine benchmarks at one-tenth self-consistency cost.

Researchers propose XConf, an experiential confidence estimator that augments current inference with a stored record of the model's graded past episodes, including reflections, stated confidence, outcomes, and lessons. A Recall stage retrieves episodes from similar tasks with similar stated confidence and reads off historical success rates, while a Reflect stage prompts the model to name recurring failure modes and restate confidence. Across nine benchmarks in reasoning, coding, multimodal QA, and interactive agents, and four models from three families, XConf beats or matches ten-sample self-consistency in AUROC on 23 of 24 comparisons with much lower ECE, at a tenth of the generation cost. For selective prediction, abstaining on the 10% least-confident episodes raises delivered success rate by up to 8.7 points on agent tasks.

Hugging Face daily papersSep 14, 20:00 UTC · 2d agoAI research

Higher-order pruning of experts in mixture-of-experts language models

New HOPE method uses second-order objectives to prune Mixture-of-Experts LLMs, outperforming REAP at 50% pruning on models up to 122B parameters.

Researchers derive HOPE (Higher-Order Pruning of Experts), a second-order pruning objective for Mixture-of-Experts language models that provably minimizes an upper bound on pruning error by modeling cooperative expert interactions. They show REAP, a state-of-the-art first-order method, is a special case of HOPE with interaction terms ignored. Across three frontier MoE models up to 122B parameters, two calibration sets, and benchmarks covering math, instruction following, coding, and agentic tasks, HOPE achieves the best average rank (1.58 of 5 at 50% pruning versus 2.42 for REAP), with gains up to +6.1% on agentic coding.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CLSep 16, 16:55 UTC · 20h agoAI research

How Much is a Human Right Worth? ECtHR-NPD: A Benchmark for Predicting Non-Pecuniary Damage Awards

ECtHR-NPD benchmark covers 14,575 European Court of Human Rights cases for predicting non-pecuniary damage awards; LLMs struggle with zero and high awards.

Researchers introduce ECtHR-NPD, described as the first benchmark for predicting non-pecuniary damage awards at the European Court of Human Rights from case information where no statutory formula exists. It contains 14,575 cases with case-level awards in nominal euros, chronological splits, and a protocol separating target construction from model input. Evaluations covering constant predictors, gradient-boosted trees, retrieval methods, fine-tuned encoder LMs, prompted decoder LMs, and knowledge-augmented agents show sophisticated LM approaches do not consistently outperform the strongest feature-based baseline. All model families struggle to identify zero awards and to calibrate high-award predictions, with further degradation on a Challenging test view.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CLSep 16, 16:49 UTC · 21h agoAI research

Evaluating Verified Autonomy in Quantum Engineering

Quantum-Harbor lab and QIQCBench (49 tasks) expose wide performance gaps across 17 frontier agentic systems in verified quantum engineering.

Researchers built Quantum-Harbor, a virtual laboratory providing a controlled execution environment where scientific AI agents interacting with quantum systems can have both actions and conclusions directly verified. QIQCBench contributes 49 expert-authored tasks spanning calibration and control, error correction and compilation, and sensing and networking. Across 17 frontier agentic systems, verified performance varied widely, exposing a substantial gap between demonstrated capability and reliable autonomous operation.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CLSep 15, 16:46 UTC · 1d agoAI research1