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Modality-Autoregressive World-Action Models

ModAR autoregressively denoises multiple future modalities (point tracks, DINO features, depth) before predicting actions, beating prior world-action models at all data scales.

ModAR is the first world-action model (WAM) to autoregressively denoise multiple future modalities before predicting actions, letting each prediction condition on previously generated modalities. Training from scratch shows WAMs benefit from predicting point tracks, DINO features, and depth maps, while future RGB adds no consistent benefit. ModAR's sequential generation outperforms existing WAM formulations with the highest average success rate at all evaluated data scales. It slightly beats video-model-initialized Flex-π (75% vs 72% success) using roughly 20x fewer training FLOPs and no pretraining, and wins on three real-world bimanual tasks.

Hugging Face daily papers · 1d agoAI research

Cadence: Error-Bounded Lossy Compression of Demand Time Series with a Time-Series Foundation Model

Cadence pairs Google's 330M-parameter TimesFM-3 foundation model with adaptive arithmetic coding, gaining 13-28% on 2026 demand series over classical predictors.

Cadence is an error-bounded lossy compressor for numeric time series combining the 330M-parameter Google TimesFM-3 foundation model with an adaptive arithmetic coder, guaranteeing a per-sample error bound. On 49 EIA-930 balancing-authority demand series from 2026 it gains 13.3% over the best of six classical predictors and 28.3% on 50 MTA ridership series, winning all 297 series-tolerance pairs with a 21.4% median gain. The paper also reports negative results, including that foundation models add negligible value for lossless coding and that PyTorch predictions are not bit-identical across batch sizes.

Hugging Face daily papers · 11d agoAI research1

Google's new AI model predicts the future from sales data, weather, and discount schedules

Google Research released TimesFM-3, a 330M-parameter multivariate time series forecasting model that tops Gift-Eval, FEV-Bench, and Time benchmarks and is on Hugging Face.

Google Research released TimesFM-3, a 330-million-parameter Transformer-based time series forecasting model trained on more than one trillion real and synthetic data points. It works zero-shot and adds multivariate support, ingesting related series, historical-only covariates, and known future events such as discount schedules and weather forecasts, while filling all future time steps in a single one-shot pass. Google reports first place among pretrained forecasting models on Gift-Eval, FEV-Bench, and Time, ahead of Amazon's Chronos-2, the Toto-2.0 family, and its own TimesFM-2.5. Weights are available on GitHub and Hugging Face, with BigQuery integration planned in the coming weeks.

The Decoder · 4d agoModel release2

Real-Time Intelligence with IBM Time Series Models on Confluent

IBM Research post on the Hugging Face blog describes running IBM time series models on Confluent for real-time intelligence.

Hugging Face's blog published an IBM Research post titled 'Real-Time Intelligence with IBM Time Series Models on Confluent.' No article body was available for classification, so details are limited to the title. The title indicates guidance on deploying IBM time series models alongside Confluent streaming infrastructure for real-time analytics.

Hugging Face Blog · 14d agoAI tools & infra

NOAH: Learning the Full Patient Journey. A Longitudinal Multimodal Time-Aware Model for Representation and Forecasting

Researchers introduce NOAH, a generative time-aware transformer trained on 559 million MIMIC clinical events to model and forecast patient trajectories.

NOAH is a task-agnostic, time-aware generative transformer designed to represent and forecast the full multimodal patient journey across medical images, time-series signals, categorical events, and clinical text. It was trained on over 559 million clinical events from 431,000 hospital visits covering 299,000 patients in the MIMIC dataset family. The architecture combines bidirectional time integration with a variational latent space to capture continuous patient state evolution and clinical stochasticity. NOAH supports autoregressive forecasting with time control, zero-shot classification, and counterfactual intervention simulation, with evaluations on 15 ICD chapters, 29 comorbidities, and time-to-event prediction.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL · 8d agoAI research2

NOAH: Learning the Full Patient Journey. A Longitudinal Multimodal Time-Aware Model for Representation and Forecasting

Researchers introduce NOAH, a time-aware generative transformer trained on 559 million MIMIC clinical events to forecast multimodal patient trajectories.

NOAH is a task-agnostic, time-aware generative transformer trained on over 559 million clinical events from 431,000 hospital visits by 299,000 patients across the MIMIC dataset family. It uses bidirectional time integration and a variational latent space to model the stochastic evolution of patient states, natively processing medical images, time-series signals, categorical events, and structured or unstructured clinical records. The model supports autoregressive forecasting with optional time control, zero-shot classification, and counterfactual intervention simulation, with strong probing performance across clinical outcomes, 15 ICD chapters, and 29 comorbidities.

Hugging Face daily papers · 8d agoAI research1

PhysStream: Streaming Physics-Grounded Video Generation with Structured Scene Memory and Fine-Grained Motion Control

PhysStream autoregressive video model enables physics-grounded mid-generation motion control, cutting trajectory error 12% and FVMD 33% versus strongest baselines.

PhysStream is an autoregressive image-to-video model that incorporates structured scene memory—positional maps and object tracking maps derived online from previously generated frames—and supports fine-grained motion control via sparse velocity-increment signals encoding physical quantities. Training proceeds in two stages: a bidirectional model finetuned with motion-control conditioning, then a causal autoregressive model with scene memory. It reduces motion distribution distance (FVMD) by 33% and trajectory error by 12% over the strongest baselines, and human evaluators prefer it in over 85% of in-the-wild comparisons.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL · 1d agoAI research 2 sources

Mask Forcing: Improving Autoregressive Video Diffusion Distillation via Dual-Noise Masking Rollout

Researchers propose Mask Forcing, a dual-noise masking rollout that mitigates mode collapse in autoregressive video diffusion distillation.

The paper targets over-saturation and over-smoothing in autoregressive video diffusion models distilled via Distribution Matching Distillation, attributed to reverse-KL mode-seeking behavior. Mask Forcing perturbs the student self-rollout with random masks along spatial and temporal axes, injecting cleaner tokens that act as denoising guidance for noisier tokens. Experiments show improved visual quality across multiple distillation methods without using real video data or extra post-training stages.

Hugging Face daily papers · 8d agoAI research

StepAudio 3 Gen Technical Report

StepAudio 3 Gen unifies TTS, voice design, music, and sound effects via discrete autoregressive modeling over RVQ tokens.

StepAudio 3 Gen is a general-purpose audio generation model covering zero-shot TTS, voice design, vocal generation, sound effects, music, vibe speech, and mixed audio in one framework. It uses discrete autoregressive modeling over residual vector quantization (RVQ) tokens rather than the diffusion Transformer paradigm, with a StepAudio Tokenizer representing audio at 12.5 Hz in a shared 16x2048 residual code space. Key design principles include interference-aware progressive pretraining, an RVQ Adaptor for multi-codebook acoustic representations, and shared discrete autoregressive modeling. The model reports state-of-the-art performance on TTS and voice design while retaining strong generation across speech, vocals, sound effects, and music.

Hugging Face daily papers · 5d agoAI research

Studying Image Tokenizers as Visual Languages in Unified Multimodal Models

A controlled autoregressive testbed shows validation losses must be analyzed per task, and image tokenizer choice affects joint multimodal text modeling.

Researchers built a pure-autoregressive testbed to study image tokenizers as the 'visual language' of unified multimodal models, tracking task-specific validation losses during multimodal continual pretraining across text, image, text-to-image (T2I), and image-to-text (I2T) prediction. They found that losses exhibit distinct scaling behavior per task and rank tokenizers differently, and that I2T loss over a shared text vocabulary gives a more consistent loss–performance signal than T2I loss. Better reconstruction does not necessarily yield lower task-specific losses or stronger downstream performance, and tokenizer choice can affect text modeling under joint optimization. Case studies examine the discriminator, semantic supervision, and vocabulary size design axes.

Hugging Face daily papers · 8d agoAI research1

Evaluating Time-Series Foundation Models and Multimodal Dietary Context for CGM Forecasting

Study finds zero-shot time-series foundation models underperform on CGM forecasting; fine-tuned Chronos-Bolt cuts RMSE up to 18.4% and dietary context adds signal.

The paper evaluates time-series foundation models for continuous glucose monitoring forecasting across eight public datasets covering Type 1 diabetes, Type 2 diabetes, and non-diabetes populations. Under a unified protocol, zero-shot foundation models did not consistently outperform baselines like Elastic Net and PatchTST, but lightweight fine-tuning did, with fine-tuned Chronos-Bolt reducing RMSE by 6.5%-18.4% in the T1D cohort and 8.6%-18.2% in the non-diabetes/T2D cohort. A residual-based fusion framework adding dietary context from CGMacros reduced overall RMSE by about 3% and postprandial RMSE by about 15% versus CGM-only baselines.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL · 6d agoAI research

Pelican-Sim 1.0: A General World Model Simulator for Embodied Intelligence

Pelican-Sim 1.0 predicts future observations from visual context and robot actions; four-step autoregressive rollouts yield 5.67x speedup and raise policy success from 70% to 93%.

Pelican-Sim 1.0 is a general world model simulator for embodied intelligence that predicts future observations from visual context and robot actions using a 28-dimensional unified action space valid across heterogeneous embodiments. Sparse mixture-of-experts layers reduce FVD by 6.530 versus the dense backbone, and causal adaptation with few-step distillation yields a four-step autoregressive simulator achieving a 5.67-fold speedup over the 35-step model. Trained on roughly one million real-world and simulated trajectories, PSNR improves over the strongest baselines by 4.636 on AgiBotWorld Beta, 2.080 on RoboMIND, and 10.343 on RoboTwin. Downstream on RoboTwin, adding 500 generated trajectories to 50 demonstrations per task raises policy success from 70% to 93%, and policy evaluation reaches a Pearson correlation of 0.994.

Hugging Face daily papers · 6d agoAI research

Model ML completes finance work more efficiently with GPT-5.6 Sol

OpenAI customer Model ML uses GPT-5.6 Sol to turn finance research into editable, traceable decks and workbooks.

OpenAI published a customer story describing how Model ML uses GPT-5.6 Sol for finance work. The model carries tasks from research and analysis through to editable, traceable PowerPoint decks and Excel workbooks. This is a product adoption case rather than a new model release.

OpenAI News · Aug 10, 2026AI industry

A Hybrid LSTM-XGBoost Framework for Multi-Horizon Stock Return Prediction Across Diversified Equity Portfolios

Hybrid LSTM-XGBoost model predicts multi-horizon returns for 14 US equities, cutting 30-day RMSE to about one-third of a standalone LSTM baseline.

The paper combines a two-layer LSTM (64 hidden units) processing 60-day windows of five market features with an XGBoost regressor over a 78-dimensional hybrid feature vector including 14 technical indicators. It is trained on pooled data for 14 US equities across six sectors using chronological splits and per-stock MinMaxScaling to prevent look-ahead bias, and evaluated at 30, 90, 252, and 365 trading-day horizons. The hybrid achieves test RMSE of 0.0949 at 30 days, roughly one-third of the standalone LSTM, while 97.6% directional accuracy at 365 days largely tracks the base rate of positive returns.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL · 5d agoAI research

LongAgent: History-Guided Agentic Search for Longitudinal Outcome Prediction

LongAgent autonomously searches variable sets and temporal windows to predict longitudinal medical outcomes, beating the strongest non-agent baseline on synthetic data.

The paper proposes LongAgent, an agent-based method that searches over combinations of variable sets, temporal windows and aggregation functions for outcome prediction on heterogeneous medical longitudinal data. It uses a history memory of previous searches and numerical evidence to guide exploration. On synthetic data it achieves mean RMSE 1.7376, improving over the best non-agent baseline by 0.0151 (95% CI [0.0045, 0.0260]; p=0.0273), and performs comparably to the best baseline on a real clinical dataset.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL · 2d agoAI research

Meta FAIR Introduces AI Research Preference Models (RPMs): Ranking ML Experiments Before Spending GPU Hours

Meta FAIR, Oxford and UCL introduce Research Preference Models that rank unexecuted ML experiments, lifting AIRS-Bench scores from 0.684 to 0.729 and cutting compute ~1.6×.

Researchers from Meta FAIR, Oxford, and UCL introduce Research Preference Models (RPMs), which use frozen pretrained LLMs (Qwen3.6-27B backbone, no fine-tuning) to rank unexecuted experiment candidates and execute only the winner of a pairwise knockout tournament. Two variants shipped: an inference-only LLM-as-a-judge and an agentic variant that runs small pilot experiments in an H200 sandbox. On AIRS-Bench (20 tasks, 24 hours on one H200, 10 seeds), scores rise from 0.684 (random) to 0.711 and 0.729 versus a 0.748 validation oracle, and both variants reach the baseline's 24-hour score in roughly 15 hours. The team reports new SOTA on WinoGrande (94.1% with Agentic RPM) and SVAMP (95.7% with inference-only).

MarkTechPost · 9d agoAI research

Target leakage, not model class, explains reported accuracy in survey-based cardiovascular screening: a leakage-tiered audit of glass-box and tabular foundation models

Audits of 10 classifiers on BRFSS show target leakage, not model class, drives the reported 0.89 AUROC in survey-based cardiovascular screening.

The study benchmarks ten model classes, including glass-box and tabular foundation models, for prevalent myocardial infarction on 442,067 respondents of the 2022 BRFSS across five feature tiers of decreasing leakage risk. Removing two post-diagnostic features costs every model 0.049-0.051 AUROC and collapses performance into a 0.0045-wide band, and the explainable boosting machine matches all alternatives within 0.005 while scoring roughly 104x faster than the strongest foundation model. Frozen models transport within 0.002 AUROC to 2023 data; the authors conclude evaluation practice and feature sets, not model capacity, are the binding constraint.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL · 6d agoAI research1

Competence-Gated Pooling of Language Models and Priors for Event Forecasting

Paper proposes a competence gate pooling language model forecasts with external priors, improving Brier score from 0.0771 to 0.0732 across 2,357 binary questions.

The paper defines a language model's relative competence as its marginal value beyond an available external forecast, and derives conditions under Brier loss where model disagreement improves that forecast. A competence gate estimates domain-level source weights from resolved outcomes, shrinks uncertain estimates toward a global weight, and recalibrates the pooled forecast. Across 2,357 resolved binary questions and five language models, it improves the external baseline from 0.0771 to 0.0732 Brier and beats global forecast combinations, though it defers to the market on ForecastBench. Across four Qwen models, verbal confidence failed to identify when the model outperformed the external forecast, while outcome-estimated competence supported better abstention.

Hugging Face daily papers · 6d agoAI research

Generative Marketing Mix Modeling: A Causal Inference Framework Linking GEO and GEM to Business Impact

Paper proposes Generative Marketing Mix Modeling to causally estimate Generative Engine Optimization and Marketing effects on business outcomes.

The authors develop GMMM, a causal inference framework for measuring how often users see and notice a firm's name in generated answers, which standard marketing data ignore. For GEO it combines repeated generated answers with question counts, shares of generative-system usage and notice probabilities; for GEM it uses sponsored placement records with notice probabilities. The framework compares expected business responses under alternative treatment sequences, establishes identification conditions, and is evaluated on simulated product-recommendation answers in English and Japanese.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL · 6d agoAI research

IBM releases SOTA Granite Time Series PatchTST-FM-r2 model with commercial-friendly license

IBM released Granite Time Series PatchTST-FM-r2, a claimed state-of-the-art time series foundation model under a commercial-friendly license.

IBM Research announced the release of Granite Time Series PatchTST-FM-r2, published via the Hugging Face blog. The model is presented as state-of-the-art for time-series forecasting and is offered under a license permitting commercial use. No benchmark numbers or model size details were provided in the available text.

Hugging Face Blog · 7d agoModel release

Learning Length-Extrapolatable Recurrent Models

Researchers propose Credit Stabilization through Time, a training method letting recurrent models extrapolate up to 128x their training length.

The paper argues that length extrapolation failure in BPTT-trained recurrent models is better explained through state credit, the signal through which future losses reach earlier recurrent states. It introduces Credit Stabilization through Time (CST), which locally rescales the state-credit signal during backpropagation without rotating the corrected component or changing forward computation. Controlled experiments show improved performance beyond the training horizon, with gains at up to 128x the training length.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL · 8d agoAI research1

State of Open Models: Summer 2026 Observations

Hugging Face publishes observations on the state of the open-weights model ecosystem as of summer 2026.

A Hugging Face blog post titled 'State of Open Models: Summer 2026 Observations' surveys developments across the open-weights model ecosystem. No article text was available, so specific model releases, benchmarks, and findings are not detailed here.

Hugging Face Blog · Aug 14, 2026AI industry

Causal Foundation Models

A paper introduces causal foundation models (CFMs): pretrained networks that estimate treatment effects on new datasets via in-context learning without fine-tuning.

Causal foundation models (CFMs) apply the foundation-model paradigm to causal inference, replacing bespoke per-problem estimator pipelines with networks pretrained once at scale. CFMs estimate causal quantities such as the average treatment effect on entirely new datasets through in-context learning, without model updates. The work serves as a practical introduction to the emerging area, covering background in causal inference and machine learning and including example code and Jupyter notebooks.

Hugging Face daily papers · 14d agoAI research

A Chosen Future Can Still Be Rewritten: Causal Writability in Video Models

Study shows video models often learn correct physics but fail to use it; low-dimensional 'causal writability' edits can restore correct motion.

The paper demonstrates 'causal writability' in video generation models: physically correct motion remains available inside the model even when the model outputs incorrect motion. In a red/blue mass oscillation setup, a low-dimensional edit predicted from simple physical variables restores correct fast motion, with a sharp depth boundary marking commitment. Early causal writability predicts which training errors later get corrected, and both writability and closure reproduce in a pretrained 1.3B video model.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL · 2d agoAI research

ActionSplice: In-Flight Action Editing for Interactive World Models

ActionSplice enables in-flight action editing in chunk-autoregressive video world models via a lightweight corrector, avoiding rollback or waiting for the next chunk.

ActionSplice is an inference framework that formulates in-flight action editing for chunk-autoregressive video world models as Counterfactual State Transport (CST), where a lightweight corrector transports the interrupted backbone-native representation toward the matched state induced by the revised action. The world model and sampler remain frozen, and sampling resumes without replaying completed evaluations. Across minWM-Wan Action2V and HY-WM1.5, the retargeting variant CST-R reduces rollback-relative LPIPS by 61.5% and 75.9% versus direct condition swapping, while the temporal-splicing variant CST-T reduces suffix LPIPS by 56.1% and 77.5% with 2.73x and 1.69x pixel-ready speedups over waiting.

Hugging Face daily papers · 8d agoAI research

[AINews] 10% worse, 100x cheaper, 10000x faster: Why Simulation is taking over

Latent Space argues AI training pipeline stages—rewards, data, teachers, curricula, environments—are flipping from human-made to model-made simulation.

Latent Space's AINews essay traces how each component of AI training has turned synthetic since 2022: reward models (InstructGPT, RLAIF), synthetic pretraining data (Microsoft Phi, NVIDIA Nemotron-4 340B), model teachers (Alpaca, DeepSeek-R1 distillation), and self-generated curricula (Self-Rewarding Language Models, SPIN). In 2026 it highlights Karpathy's autoresearch loop—700 experiments yielding 20 kept improvements, cutting GPT-2 training time from 2.02 to 1.80 hours—and Z.ai's GLM-5.3 fully synthetic RL environment, judging, and verification stack. It frames these shifts as 'simulation': 10% worse but 100x cheaper and 10,000x faster than human equivalents.

Latent Space · 25d agoAI industry

Reference-Based Bias Detection in LLMs via Relative Representations of Hidden States

Researchers propose auditing LLM bias via relative hidden-state representations, detecting bias increases with 3-50x less compute than output-level benchmarks.

The paper introduces a reference-based bias auditing method that compares hidden-state representations across model variants, such as before and after fine-tuning, by encoding sentences relative to a fixed anchor set. The resulting Representational Bias Shift (Delta-B) correlates with output-level bias change in 15 of 18 tested settings, reaching |r| = 0.84 under full fine-tuning across WildGuardMix, DecodingTrust, and ToxiGen benchmarks. Thresholding Delta-B detects checkpoints whose bias increased with ROC AUC between 0.65 and 0.99 and beats a SEAT-based baseline, while auditing a model in about three minutes with 3-50x less compute.

Hugging Face daily papers · 7d agoAI research

RelateAnything: Real-Time Open-Vocabulary Relation Prediction From Any Inputs

RelateAnything is a 53M-parameter open-vocabulary relation prediction model running at 20 ms/frame, with 2.3-3.5x higher mean recall than comparable open-vocabulary methods.

RelateAnything predicts scored relations between image regions using any predicate vocabulary supplied at inference as text embeddings, with object labels never required as input, so region sources can change without retraining. Training covers 19,103 predicates using positive-unlabeled supervision; the authors release RA-4M (474k images, 4.3M geometrically verified relations over 10,102 free-text predicates) and the OV-SGG-Bench evaluation suite. The 53M-parameter model runs at 20 ms/frame and achieves 2.3-3.5x the mean recall of the strongest comparable open-vocabulary method across cross-dataset and zero-shot benchmarks. Model, corpus, and benchmark are public.

Hugging Face daily papers · 5d agoAI research

Multi-Vector (Late Interaction) Embedding Models with Sentence Transformers

Hugging Face details building and using multi-vector late-interaction embedding models with Sentence Transformers for retrieval workloads.

Hugging Face published a guide on multi-vector, late-interaction embedding models (ColBERT-style) supported through Sentence Transformers. The post covers how practitioners can build and use these models for retrieval and RAG pipelines. It is a developer tooling and technique write-up, not a security advisory.

Hugging Face Blog · 29d agoAI tools & infra1

Likelihood-free inference with nuisance parameters through normalizing flows

Researchers decompose normalizing flows to derive near-pivotal statistics for likelihood-free inference with nuisance parameters, recovering the t-test and beating Welch limits.

A new paper decomposes neural-network normalizing flows to uncover pivotal statistics in the presence of nuisance parameters using only a sample generator from the distribution of interest. The statistic is near-pivotal in the sense of minimum average KL-divergence of its p-values and can incorporate prior knowledge of group invariances such as translation and scale. Experiments show it recovers the one-sample t-test almost exactly, outperforms the Welch test on worst-case size over a constrained variance-ratio range, and delivers higher power and much faster runtime than profile likelihood-ratio techniques on small-to-moderate samples.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL · 7d agoAI research