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Paper generalizes Amari's Bayesian duality by connecting it to a convex duality of Bayes' rule.
The authors revisit Amari's less-known work on Bayesian duality from information geometry. They connect Bayesian duality to a convex duality formulation of Bayes' rule and present a generalization of it. The paper is purely theoretical and discusses relevance for modern AI, with no experiments or model releases.
Probing six open-source LLMs on HMM-generated data shows belief states are linearly decodable (R² 0.83–0.99), suggesting in-context learning approximates Bayesian prediction.
Researchers prompted six open-source LLMs with data from 40 hidden Markov models selected for non-trivial belief structure and probed residual-stream activations for belief states (posteriors over hidden states). Belief states were linearly decodable with peak R² values of 0.83–0.99 across HMM/LLM combinations, spanning early to late layers. Patching and steering the probe-identified subspace preserved downstream prediction quality while control interventions degraded performance substantially, establishing functional relevance. The results provide representation-level evidence that in-context learning approximates optimal Bayesian prediction over a context-inferred generative model.
SQS unifies weight pruning and low-bit quantization via Bayesian variational learning, compressing Llama3.2 and Qwen2.5 at higher rates with comparable accuracy.
SQS introduces a unified Bayesian variational framework performing simultaneous pruning and low-bit quantization, using a spike-and-slab prior for sparsity and Gaussian Mixture Models to model quantized weights. The authors derive an efficient approximation for the intractable objective and provide a consistency result for the variational approach. Experiments on ResNet, BERT-base, Llama3.2, and Qwen2.5 show higher compression rates than prior baselines with comparable performance drops.
Review connects control theory, optimal transport, probabilistic inference, thermodynamics, and machine learning via free-energy optimization under constraints.
The review unifies five fields: control theory, optimal transport, probabilistic inference, non-equilibrium thermodynamics, and machine learning. The common conceptual thread is optimization of free-energy-like functionals under dynamical or statistical constraints. Selected applications are presented in reinforcement learning, variational inference, and generative modeling. The tutorial-style text assumes no prior familiarity and begins from physics principles.
Researchers decompose normalizing flows to derive near-pivotal statistics for likelihood-free inference with nuisance parameters, recovering the t-test and beating Welch limits.
A new paper decomposes neural-network normalizing flows to uncover pivotal statistics in the presence of nuisance parameters using only a sample generator from the distribution of interest. The statistic is near-pivotal in the sense of minimum average KL-divergence of its p-values and can incorporate prior knowledge of group invariances such as translation and scale. Experiments show it recovers the one-sample t-test almost exactly, outperforms the Welch test on worst-case size over a constrained variance-ratio range, and delivers higher power and much faster runtime than profile likelihood-ratio techniques on small-to-moderate samples.
Paper argues diffusion models implicitly form Cobweb-like concept hierarchies, with a basic level emerging at intermediate noise levels.
The authors draw a formal correspondence between diffusion models and Cobweb, a classic incremental concept-hierarchy learner, noting both are hierarchical Bayesian density models with Gaussian prototypes. Modes of the diffusion model's noisy marginals form a hierarchy whose basic level sits at intermediate noise, where class identity commits. The correspondence is tested on MNIST and Fashion-MNIST via mode-finding. Diffusion is reframed as a cognitive model of concept formation.
Study finds reasoning models often fail on structurally equivalent variants of tasks they solve, suggesting their reasoning lacks systematicity.
The paper extends rule induction tasks from cognitive science using task isomorphisms such as recombination and substitution to test systematicity in reasoning models. Despite solving tasks correctly, models frequently fail on structurally equivalent variants of the same task. The authors conclude many model behaviors lack systematicity, making it difficult to establish cognitive abilities beyond the specific evaluation contexts.
DynSHAP extends SHAP explainability to dynamic survival analysis, treating time-feature pairs as Shapley players for longitudinal clinical predictions.
DynSHAP adapts marginal SHAP estimators to dynamic survival analysis by treating time-feature pairs as players in the Shapley game, handling longitudinal irregular inputs and functional survival outputs. Temporal DynSHAP learns linear feature dependencies over time and addresses them with conditional sampling. On synthetic data with ground-truth attributions it recovers temporally dependent features more accurately than marginal estimators, and it produces faithful attributions on two real-world clinical datasets across two DSA architectures.
Researchers derive sufficient sample-size conditions for recovering sparse binary signals from sparse Gaussian measurements, quantifying an information-theoretic threshold of order slog(p/s)/log(ds/p).
The paper studies support recovery of sparse binary signals from noisy linear measurements. For sparse Gaussian designs, the authors identify sufficient minimal sample sizes for maximum-likelihood recovery in the high-SNR regime d*s/p -> infinity, yielding an information-theoretic threshold of order slog(p/s)/log(ds/p) that makes the price of measurement sparsity explicit. They also show a regime where the sample-complexity loss from sparsity is only logarithmic while computational gains are nearly linear, and prove that for independently sparsified dense Gaussian designs a sample size of order p/ψ² suffices for support recovery at any fixed error level.
Researchers introduce CausalArena, a unified benchmark revealing that causal discovery rankings shift substantially across structural causal model families and protocols.
The paper presents CausalArena, a unified and evolvable benchmark for causal discovery combining synthetic structural causal models, semantically grounded operational SCMs, formula-grounded scientific SCMs, and public real-world datasets. Experiments across classical, neural, and pretrained causal discovery foundation models show large ranking shifts between benchmark regimes. The authors identify pretraining-evaluation overlap and benchmark diversity as central evaluation challenges.
Paper proposes γ*-concept shifts via entropic optimal transport, deriving estimable generalization bounds unifying covariate and concept shift under distribution shift.
The authors show existing definitions of concept shift break when source and target supports mismatch and propose γ*-concept shifts grounded in entropic optimal transport. They derive a general error bound covering broad loss functions, label spaces and stochastic labeling, plus estimators with concentration guarantees. The resulting DataShifts algorithm quantifies distribution shifts and estimates the error bound in most applications, addressing learning bounds that were previously non-estimable from samples.
Kalman Delta Networks add uncertainty tracking to linear-attention associative memory, improving perplexity and downstream accuracy at 750M and 1.3B scales.
Kalman Delta Networks reformulate recurrent associative memory in linear-attention models as a linear-Gaussian state-space model, allowing the Kalman gain to weight each residual write by accumulated evidence and observation reliability; Delta-rule updates emerge as a special case lacking covariance tracking. Two scan-compatible approximations, Diagonal KDN (online mean-field variational inference) and Isotropic KDN (one uncertainty scalar per head), produce Mobius-map uncertainty recurrences enabling associative scans with logarithmic parallel depth. Controlled pretraining at 750M and 1.3B parameters consistently improves perplexity and mean downstream accuracy over state-of-the-art linear-attention models.
Thin-shell stability proof along the Gaussian cooling path improves cold-start logconcave sampling complexity to near n^2.5 from n^2.75.
The authors prove that logconcave probability measures along the Gaussian cooling path have thin-shell stability, generalizing the thin-shell theorem. This yields improved complexity for sampling an arbitrary logconcave distribution from a cold start. For (near-)isotropic logconcave distributions the complexity is nearly n^2.5, improving the previous n^2.75 bound and matching the abstract Speedy walk.
Reproduction study finds Orthrus speculative-decoding trajectories match the reference model in only ~45% of cases under BF16, but 100% under FP32.
Researchers independently reproduced Orthrus, a hybrid autoregressive-diffusion architecture claiming lossless speculative decoding via intra-model consensus, testing exact trajectory matching on 1,190 prompts across 12 domains. Under BF16, exact matching occurred in only 45% of cases for the authors' checkpoint and 43% for an independently trained model, with matching probability strongly tied to reference-model response-conditional perplexity. Despite trajectory divergence, downstream lm-eval-harness benchmarks showed no systematic degradation, while FP32 evaluation yielded exact matching on all prompts.
TREVIS uses a Tree Transformer VAE latent space to learn decision trees matching near-optimal predictive performance while improving structural sparsity.
TREVIS learns decision trees optimized for complex objectives by exploring the latent space of a Tree Transformer Variational Auto-Encoder (TTVAE). Mapping trees to continuous latent representations replaces the discrete search space with a continuous one, enabling gradient-based optimization through a differentiable surrogate model. Experiments show TREVIS matches the predictive performance of near-optimal algorithms while improving structural sparsity, targeting high-stakes contexts needing transparent decision logic.
FactoSR factorizes 4D spatial reasoning into XY, Z, and T reinforcement-learning sub-objectives, boosting VLM performance on VSI-Bench by 5.9% and All-Angles-Bench by 4.5%.
Researchers present FactoSR, a factorized reinforcement learning framework that decomposes world-consistent reasoning into planar correspondence, depth consistency, and temporal reversibility sub-objectives. Optimizing these verifiable constraints turns the ill-posed projection recovery problem into tangible reasoning steps. Evaluations show gains of 5.9% on VSI-Bench and 4.5% on All-Angles-Bench for 3D and 4D reasoning, arguing VLMs' spatial bottleneck stems from training on 2D projections versus latent 3D geometry and temporal continuity.
LimiX-2 scales Contextual Mechanism Networks pretrained via context-conditional masked modeling, beating tabular foundation models on TabArena, TALENT, and BCCO benchmarks.
LimiX-2 is a new tabular model in the LimiX family, developed through model and data scaling guided by previously established scaling laws under the Contextual Mechanism Networks (CMNs) paradigm. It is pretrained with Context-Conditional Masked Modeling (CCMM) on synthetic datasets generated by structural causal models spanning diverse graph structures, functional mechanisms, and observation processes. It outperforms dataset-specific models and tabular foundation models on TabArena, TALENT, and BCCO, and its feature attention encodes direct causal relationships, enabling accurate causal skeleton recovery.
Audit of 22 frontier models finds widespread verbatim retrieval of published molecular property values, with higher reasoning increasing recall of memorized numbers.
An arXiv audit tests 22 frontier LLMs across 12 molecular regression benchmarks for verbatim retrieval of published values. More than 50% of the LLMs show verbatim retrieval on five datasets, and identical experiments are flagged 89% more often at a high reasoning level than at the lowest one. Suppressing retrieval moves model prediction errors closer together in relative terms, suggesting predictive capability is not determined solely by memorized values.
Researchers implement Goldwasser's CLWE-based undetectable backdoor for Random Fourier Features models in numpy/scipy, confirming practical realizability with no detectable differences from clean models.
The paper provides an end-to-end implementation of the Goldwasser et al. white-box undetectable backdoor for models trained with the Random Fourier Features algorithm, using only numpy and scipy. It derives two samplers for the core GP_d(b_k) distribution: a rejection-sampling proxy and an exact closed-form sampler verified against its analytic form. Statistical indistinguishability tests covering weight-space and functional black-box comparisons found no detectable difference between backdoored and clean models across sparsity ratios. The underlying lattice hardness reduction was not reproduced, and the work demonstrates the threat is realizable with commodity scientific-computing tools rather than specialized cryptographic infrastructure.
Study shows video models often learn correct physics but fail to use it; low-dimensional 'causal writability' edits can restore correct motion.
The paper demonstrates 'causal writability' in video generation models: physically correct motion remains available inside the model even when the model outputs incorrect motion. In a red/blue mass oscillation setup, a low-dimensional edit predicted from simple physical variables restores correct fast motion, with a sharp depth boundary marking commitment. Early causal writability predicts which training errors later get corrected, and both writability and closure reproduce in a pretrained 1.3B video model.
Controlled experiments show few-shot in-context learning emerges across six modalities including language, genomes, images, and proteins, partially supporting a convergence hypothesis.
The paper tests the Convergent Emergence Hypothesis: that few-shot in-context learning, when it emerges, shares a common cross-modality difficulty profile. A controlled framework instantiated the same task suite across six modalities: language, genome, integer sequences, time series, images, and proteins. Paired-mapping ICL emerged in all six modalities, surpassed controlled baselines, and showed correlated per-task effects in five of them, providing partial support for the hypothesis.
A multi-signal pipeline detects LLM hallucinations, reaching F1 0.915 on HaluEval and cutting Qwen2.5-0.5B hallucination rates from 85.5% to 37.7% via DPO.
The paper presents a hallucination detection pipeline combining fine-tuned DeBERTa-v3 classification, Monte Carlo Dropout uncertainty, and temperature-scaled calibration. It achieves F1 0.915 and AUROC 0.977 on general-domain HaluEval tasks, with MC Dropout inference raising accuracy to 93.2%. Applying DPO to a Qwen2.5-0.5B generator reduces its hallucination rate from 85.5% to 37.7%, while cross-domain evaluation shows poor general-domain transfer to SciFact (F1 0.52) and PubMedBERT fine-tuning as the strongest adaptation (F1 0.63).
Researchers apply reinforcement learning to identify SMEFT operators explaining particle physics anomalies, reproducing and improving known CDF W-mass results.
The paper introduces a reinforcement learning method to search the large Standard Model Effective Field Theory (SMEFT) operator space for explanations of measurement anomalies. It was validated on the CDF W-mass anomaly, reproducing and improving known results, then applied to a harder multi-anomaly scenario. RL efficiently navigates complex loop-level operator correlations that bias human-driven phenomenological analysis.
Drift-Constrained Optimization reformulates fine-tuning as update-direction selection, letting Qwen3 models improve target tasks within a behavioral drift budget.
The paper specifies a behavioral drift budget before optimization and shows that update direction is the remaining degree of freedom, reformulating fine-tuning as a direction-selection problem. In a stringent QA-only setting where instruct models must still generate multi-step reasoning at inference, a coarse layer-selective probe reverses the failure of QA-only fine-tuning. Across Qwen3-8B and Qwen3-14B, these directions substantially improve scientific reasoning and multilingual translation, matching or outperforming dedicated translation systems over 100+ languages and giving stronger initialization for reinforcement learning.
SQD disaggregates LLM inference by quadratic versus subquadratic attention layers, improving energy efficiency up to 56% on heterogeneous systems versus GPU-only baselines.
SQD (SubQuadratic Disaggregation) splits decode not by operator type but by quadratic versus subquadratic attention, matching their distinct arithmetic intensity and memory footprints. For sparse attention LLMs it separates top-k selection (requiring full KV indexing) from top-k attention plus FFN; for linear and sliding-window models it separates dense attention layers from subquadratic layers plus FFN. On an adjusted 8xB200 heterogeneous proxy, tokens-per-joule improves 53% on GLM 5.2, 31% on Nemotron 3 Ultra, and 56% on Gemma 4 31B. A Rubin plus LPX analytical model shows 1.2x-1.5x tighter achievable latencies and up to 3.6x higher throughput versus attention-FFN disaggregation.
Researchers propose Kalman Delta Networks, adding Kalman-filter uncertainty tracking to delta-rule linear attention, improving perplexity and accuracy at 750M and 1.3B parameters.
The paper introduces Kalman Delta Networks (KDNs), which reformulate recurrent associative memory in linear-attention models as a linear-Gaussian state-space model where the Kalman gain weights each write by accumulated evidence and observation reliability. Two scan-compatible approximations, Diagonal KDN via online mean-field variational inference and Isotropic KDN with a single uncertainty scalar per head, enable associative scans with logarithmic parallel depth. Delta-rule updates are shown to be a special case of this formulation. KDN variants consistently improve perplexity and mean downstream accuracy over state-of-the-art linear-attention baselines in controlled pretraining at 750M and 1.3B parameters.
RS-MFBO couples global sensitivity analysis with fidelity-augmented Gaussian processes to slash costly high-fidelity simulation runs in industrial flowsheet optimization.
The paper presents RS-MFBO, a reduced-space multi-fidelity Bayesian optimization framework for high-dimensional, expensive black-box functions. It integrates Global Sensitivity Analysis for dimensionality reduction with a fidelity-augmented Gaussian process and a cost-aware acquisition strategy featuring cooldown and promotion mechanisms. Validation on a plasmid DNA bioprocess (SuperPro Designer) and a green fuel synthesis plant (Aspen HYSYS) shows substantial reductions in high-fidelity evaluations while remaining competitive with single-fidelity baselines.
Quenched Ensemble Sampling generalizes nested sampling's hard energy constraint to repulsive potentials, traversing first-order phase transitions where tempering fails.
Quenched Ensemble Sampling generalizes nested sampling's hard energy constraint into a family of repulsive potentials at the energy boundary, preserving monotone energy descent while making the constrained target amenable to scalable gradient-based kernels. On synthetic phase-transition models it estimates marginal likelihood and draws posterior samples across first-order transitions where popular alternatives such as tempering fail. Applications include marginal likelihood estimation for Bayesian neural network architecture comparison and partition function estimation in a high-dimensional continuous lattice field theory.
Safe meta-RL framework reasons about safety in information space, learning a safety value function used for safety filtering and constrained policy optimization.
The paper proposes safe meta-RL that reasons about safety in information space, capturing both physical state and the agent's belief over the underlying task. A safety value function measures the probability of avoiding unsafe regions indefinitely and satisfies a self-consistency condition and Bellman equation, making it learnable via meta-RL. The resulting algorithm uses the learned function for safety filtering and constrained policy optimization, with effectiveness demonstrated on meta-RL benchmarks.
MindTopo benchmark with 11,030 topological tasks shows 14 multimodal LLMs reason better than they plan and remain far below human performance.
MindTopo is a benchmark of topological intuition across five properties grounded in cognitive science and formal topology: continuity, separation, order, enclosure, and knots, evaluated at reasoning and closed-loop planning levels. It contains 11,030 instances across 13 procedurally generated task types with controllable difficulty, benchmarking 14 multimodal LLMs plus agent configurations using image and video generation, including three video generative models. Every MLLM performs better on reasoning than on planning, and the best-performing model remains far below observed human performance. On Qwen3-VL-2B-Instruct, supervised fine-tuning and reinforcement learning improve reasoning more than planning, and audited generated rollouts often fail to follow environment dynamics or preserve topology across transitions.