Search: “bayesian-learning”

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Large Language Models Develop Belief State Geometry In-Context

Probing six open-source LLMs on HMM-generated data shows belief states are linearly decodable (R² 0.83–0.99), suggesting in-context learning approximates Bayesian prediction.

Researchers prompted six open-source LLMs with data from 40 hidden Markov models selected for non-trivial belief structure and probed residual-stream activations for belief states (posteriors over hidden states). Belief states were linearly decodable with peak R² values of 0.83–0.99 across HMM/LLM combinations, spanning early to late layers. Patching and steering the probe-identified subspace preserved downstream prediction quality while control interventions degraded performance substantially, establishing functional relevance. The results provide representation-level evidence that in-context learning approximates optimal Bayesian prediction over a context-inferred generative model.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 15, 16:17 UTC · 1d agoAI research1

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A Generalization of Amari's Bayesian Duality

Paper generalizes Amari's Bayesian duality by connecting it to a convex duality of Bayes' rule.

The authors revisit Amari's less-known work on Bayesian duality from information geometry. They connect Bayesian duality to a convex duality formulation of Bayes' rule and present a generalization of it. The paper is purely theoretical and discusses relevance for modern AI, with no experiments or model releases.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 8, 17:51 UTC · 8d agoAI research

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SQS: Bayesian DNN Compression through Sparse Quantized Sub-distributions

SQS unifies weight pruning and low-bit quantization via Bayesian variational learning, compressing Llama3.2 and Qwen2.5 at higher rates with comparable accuracy.

SQS introduces a unified Bayesian variational framework performing simultaneous pruning and low-bit quantization, using a spike-and-slab prior for sparsity and Gaussian Mixture Models to model quantized weights. The authors derive an efficient approximation for the intractable objective and provide a consistency result for the variational approach. Experiments on ResNet, BERT-base, Llama3.2, and Qwen2.5 show higher compression rates than prior baselines with comparable performance drops.

Hugging Face daily papers·Sep 6, 20:00 UTC · 10d agoAI research

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Likelihood-free inference with nuisance parameters through normalizing flows

Researchers decompose normalizing flows to derive near-pivotal statistics for likelihood-free inference with nuisance parameters, recovering the t-test and beating Welch limits.

A new paper decomposes neural-network normalizing flows to uncover pivotal statistics in the presence of nuisance parameters using only a sample generator from the distribution of interest. The statistic is near-pivotal in the sense of minimum average KL-divergence of its p-values and can incorporate prior knowledge of group invariances such as translation and scale. Experiments show it recovers the one-sample t-test almost exactly, outperforms the Welch test on worst-case size over a constrained variance-ratio range, and delivers higher power and much faster runtime than profile likelihood-ratio techniques on small-to-moderate samples.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 9, 17:58 UTC · 7d agoAI research

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Bridging Control, Inference, Transport, and Thermodynamics: From Theory to Applications in Learning

Review connects control theory, optimal transport, probabilistic inference, thermodynamics, and machine learning via free-energy optimization under constraints.

The review unifies five fields: control theory, optimal transport, probabilistic inference, non-equilibrium thermodynamics, and machine learning. The common conceptual thread is optimization of free-energy-like functionals under dynamical or statistical constraints. Selected applications are presented in reinforcement learning, variational inference, and generative modeling. The tutorial-style text assumes no prior familiarity and begins from physics principles.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 14, 17:16 UTC · 2d agoAI research

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Diffusion Models and Concept Formation

Paper argues diffusion models implicitly form Cobweb-like concept hierarchies, with a basic level emerging at intermediate noise levels.

The authors draw a formal correspondence between diffusion models and Cobweb, a classic incremental concept-hierarchy learner, noting both are hierarchical Bayesian density models with Gaussian prototypes. Modes of the diffusion model's noisy marginals form a hierarchy whose basic level sits at intermediate noise, where class identity commits. The correspondence is tested on MNIST and Fashion-MNIST via mode-finding. Diffusion is reframed as a cognitive model of concept formation.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 11, 16:43 UTC · 5d agoAI research

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Transfer Learning for Evolving Domains

TrED formalizes transfer learning for domains whose data availability evolves over time, arguing classical settings are regimes along one trajectory, and remains unsolved.

The paper introduces Transfer Learning for Evolving Domains (TrED), formalizing transfer learning as a trajectory problem where target data and labels are progressively collected. TrED is specified by a data availability process fixed by the environment, a freely chosen learning protocol, and an evaluation criterion scoring the whole trajectory of models. Classical settings like domain generalization, domain adaptation, and multi-domain learning are recovered as regimes within this framework. The authors survey the literature and find most methods are tailored to a single regime, leaving TrED a well-posed open problem.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 11, 16:37 UTC · 5d agoAI research

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General Quantification of Covariate and Concept Shifts

Paper proposes γ*-concept shifts via entropic optimal transport, deriving estimable generalization bounds unifying covariate and concept shift under distribution shift.

The authors show existing definitions of concept shift break when source and target supports mismatch and propose γ*-concept shifts grounded in entropic optimal transport. They derive a general error bound covering broad loss functions, label spaces and stochastic labeling, plus estimators with concentration guarantees. The resulting DataShifts algorithm quantifies distribution shifts and estimates the error bound in most applications, addressing learning bounds that were previously non-estimable from samples.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 10, 17:57 UTC · 6d agoAI research1

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Continual Learning Mechanisms Compose for Long-Horizon Memorization

Composing data, function, and weight anchors with merged LoRA raises 100-task long-horizon retention from 1.2% to 34.9% in continual fine-tuning.

The paper introduces long-horizon memorization: a model learns 100 query-answer tasks through continual supervised fine-tuning without retaining earlier examples or receiving task identifiers at inference. No single continual learning mechanism maintains strong retention at this horizon, so the authors compose complementary mechanisms along data/function/weight anchors and low-rank allocation rules. The best method combining all three anchors with merged LoRA ranks among the top 3 methods on all three datasets and raises average final retention from 1.2% to 34.9%, a 28-fold improvement.

Hugging Face daily papers·Sep 6, 20:00 UTC · 10d agoAI research

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Drift-Constrained Optimization: Only Direction Matters in Fine-Tuning Instruct Models

Drift-Constrained Optimization reformulates fine-tuning as update-direction selection, letting Qwen3 models improve target tasks within a behavioral drift budget.

The paper specifies a behavioral drift budget before optimization and shows that update direction is the remaining degree of freedom, reformulating fine-tuning as a direction-selection problem. In a stringent QA-only setting where instruct models must still generate multi-step reasoning at inference, a coarse layer-selective probe reverses the failure of QA-only fine-tuning. Across Qwen3-8B and Qwen3-14B, these directions substantially improve scientific reasoning and multilingual translation, matching or outperforming dedicated translation systems over 100+ languages and giving stronger initialization for reinforcement learning.

Hugging Face daily papers·Sep 11, 20:00 UTC · 5d agoAI research

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Distill Globally, Adapt Locally: Reasoning Distillation and Product-Type Test-Time Training for Scalable Trade-Up Recommendation

A distillation framework compresses LLM reasoning into a 15.5M-parameter trade-up recommendation model reaching AUC 0.941 with product-type test-time training.

The paper targets trade-up recommendation, which identifies higher-quality alternatives that preserve customer purchase intent. A retrieval-augmented few-shot LLM teacher generates labels and rationales that supervise a compact embedding-pair classifier; at inference the 15.5M-parameter student uses only two precomputed 768-dimensional embeddings with no LLM calls. On 8,352 annotated pairs, label-only training scored AUC 0.912, reasoning distillation reached 0.924, and product-type test-time training lifted it to 0.941 with average precision 0.940. The distilled student is roughly 5,000x faster and 10,000x cheaper than direct LLM inference on a 100K-pair proxy catalog.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 4, 17:08 UTC · 12d agoAI research

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Competence-Gated Pooling of Language Models and Priors for Event Forecasting

Paper proposes a competence gate pooling language model forecasts with external priors, improving Brier score from 0.0771 to 0.0732 across 2,357 binary questions.

The paper defines a language model's relative competence as its marginal value beyond an available external forecast, and derives conditions under Brier loss where model disagreement improves that forecast. A competence gate estimates domain-level source weights from resolved outcomes, shrinks uncertain estimates toward a global weight, and recalibrates the pooled forecast. Across 2,357 resolved binary questions and five language models, it improves the external baseline from 0.0771 to 0.0732 Brier and beats global forecast combinations, though it defers to the market on ForecastBench. Across four Qwen models, verbal confidence failed to identify when the model outperformed the external forecast, while outcome-estimated competence supported better abstention.

Hugging Face daily papers·Sep 9, 20:00 UTC · 7d agoAI research

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Kalman Delta Networks: Uncertainty-aware Associative Memory

Researchers propose Kalman Delta Networks, adding Kalman-filter uncertainty tracking to delta-rule linear attention, improving perplexity and accuracy at 750M and 1.3B parameters.

The paper introduces Kalman Delta Networks (KDNs), which reformulate recurrent associative memory in linear-attention models as a linear-Gaussian state-space model where the Kalman gain weights each write by accumulated evidence and observation reliability. Two scan-compatible approximations, Diagonal KDN via online mean-field variational inference and Isotropic KDN with a single uncertainty scalar per head, enable associative scans with logarithmic parallel depth. Delta-rule updates are shown to be a special case of this formulation. KDN variants consistently improve perplexity and mean downstream accuracy over state-of-the-art linear-attention baselines in controlled pretraining at 750M and 1.3B parameters.

Hugging Face daily papers·Sep 6, 20:00 UTC · 10d agoAI research

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Kalman Delta Networks: Uncertainty-aware Associative Memory

Kalman Delta Networks add uncertainty tracking to linear-attention associative memory, improving perplexity and downstream accuracy at 750M and 1.3B scales.

Kalman Delta Networks reformulate recurrent associative memory in linear-attention models as a linear-Gaussian state-space model, allowing the Kalman gain to weight each residual write by accumulated evidence and observation reliability; Delta-rule updates emerge as a special case lacking covariance tracking. Two scan-compatible approximations, Diagonal KDN (online mean-field variational inference) and Isotropic KDN (one uncertainty scalar per head), produce Mobius-map uncertainty recurrences enabling associative scans with logarithmic parallel depth. Controlled pretraining at 750M and 1.3B parameters consistently improves perplexity and mean downstream accuracy over state-of-the-art linear-attention models.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 7, 17:53 UTC · 9d agoAI research1

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CausalArena: Benchmarking Causal Discovery in the Foundation Model Era

Researchers introduce CausalArena, a unified benchmark revealing that causal discovery rankings shift substantially across structural causal model families and protocols.

The paper presents CausalArena, a unified and evolvable benchmark for causal discovery combining synthetic structural causal models, semantically grounded operational SCMs, formula-grounded scientific SCMs, and public real-world datasets. Experiments across classical, neural, and pretrained causal discovery foundation models show large ranking shifts between benchmark regimes. The authors identify pretraining-evaluation overlap and benchmark diversity as central evaluation challenges.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 10, 17:53 UTC · 6d agoAI research

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Understanding the Impact of Model Pruning on Long-Tail Forgetting and Explanation Reliability in Medical Imaging

Systematic study finds model pruning causes frequency-dependent long-tail forgetting in medical imaging and that gradient-informed methods best preserve explanations.

Across two long-tailed medical imaging datasets, two CNN architectures, four pruning methods, and sparsity up to 95%, the study measures predictive performance, explanation stability, and faithfulness. Rare classes degrade earlier and more severely than frequent ones, while explanation reliability depends mainly on the pruning strategy, with gradient-informed methods degrading least. Mechanistic analysis ties explanation collapse to loss of class-discriminative gradients rather than vanishing feature activations, recommending class- and explanation-aware evaluation of compression.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 7, 17:44 UTC · 9d agoAI research

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Not All Prompts Are Equal: Exploration-Guided Prompt Scaffolding for Multimodal Reinforcement Post-Training

Exploration-guided prompt scaffolding rewrites training prompts by Exploration Potential Score, boosting multimodal RL post-training accuracy up to 11.5%.

The paper proposes dynamically adapting the training prompt distribution during online RL post-training of multimodal LLMs using the Exploration Potential Score (EPS), a lightweight rollout-based proxy for prompt utility computed from on-policy statistics with no additional overhead. Rather than discarding low-utility prompts, a teacher model generates scaffolded rewrites that preserve task intent while making training more informative. Integrated with GRPO on Geo3K and MMK12, the method achieves up to 9.7% relative in-domain improvement plus 11.5% on MathVision and 11.1% on MMMU-Pro.

Hugging Face daily papers·Sep 13, 20:00 UTC · 3d agoAI research

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Searching for New Physics with Reinforcement Learning

Researchers apply reinforcement learning to identify SMEFT operators explaining particle physics anomalies, reproducing and improving known CDF W-mass results.

The paper introduces a reinforcement learning method to search the large Standard Model Effective Field Theory (SMEFT) operator space for explanations of measurement anomalies. It was validated on the CDF W-mass anomaly, reproducing and improving known results, then applied to a harder multi-anomaly scenario. RL efficiently navigates complex loop-level operator correlations that bias human-driven phenomenological analysis.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 9, 16:07 UTC · 7d agoAI research

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Safe Meta-Reinforcement Learning via Information Space Reachability

Safe meta-RL framework reasons about safety in information space, learning a safety value function used for safety filtering and constrained policy optimization.

The paper proposes safe meta-RL that reasons about safety in information space, capturing both physical state and the agent's belief over the underlying task. A safety value function measures the probability of avoiding unsafe regions indefinitely and satisfies a self-consistency condition and Bellman equation, making it learnable via meta-RL. The resulting algorithm uses the learned function for safety filtering and constrained policy optimization, with effectiveness demonstrated on meta-RL benchmarks.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 14, 17:27 UTC · 2d agoAI research

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Online Learning with LLM Experts from Limited Feedback

Paper proposes bandit algorithms for adaptively routing prompts to LLM experts, minimizing regret under limited feedback budgets.

The paper formulates adaptive prompt routing to K LLM experts as a contextual bandit problem with d prompt features over T rounds. Proposed algorithms strategically select actions and observe rewards, achieving O(dT/m) regret in the full-information setting and O(dTK/m) in the bandit setting, where m is the feedback budget. Experiments demonstrate efficient learning of high-quality routing strategies across diverse LLMs from limited feedback.

Hugging Face daily papers·Sep 4, 20:00 UTC · 12d agoAI research

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DynSHAP: Towards Explainable Dynamic Survival Analysis

DynSHAP extends SHAP explainability to dynamic survival analysis, treating time-feature pairs as Shapley players for longitudinal clinical predictions.

DynSHAP adapts marginal SHAP estimators to dynamic survival analysis by treating time-feature pairs as players in the Shapley game, handling longitudinal irregular inputs and functional survival outputs. Temporal DynSHAP learns linear feature dependencies over time and addresses them with conditional sampling. On synthetic data with ground-truth attributions it recovers temporally dependent features more accurately than marginal estimators, and it produces faithful attributions on two real-world clinical datasets across two DSA architectures.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 11, 16:39 UTC · 5d agoAI research

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Near-Optimal Reinforcement Learning with Multi-Step Transition Lookahead

Theorists prove multi-step lookahead RL planning is NP-hard for every fixed rational discount factor yet give a randomized polynomial-time approximation scheme.

The paper resolves open questions about reinforcement learning with multi-step transition lookahead. It shows exact planning remains NP-hard for every fixed rational discount factor in (0,1), not just discounts arbitrarily close to one, and introduces a randomized polynomial-time approximation scheme for every fixed lookahead depth. Extending to unknown transitions and stochastic rewards via optimism and variance-adaptive confidence bounds, the algorithm achieves cumulative regret matching classical tabular discounted RL up to logarithmic factors.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 10, 16:58 UTC · 6d agoAI research1

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Quenched Ensemble Sampling

Quenched Ensemble Sampling generalizes nested sampling's hard energy constraint to repulsive potentials, traversing first-order phase transitions where tempering fails.

Quenched Ensemble Sampling generalizes nested sampling's hard energy constraint into a family of repulsive potentials at the energy boundary, preserving monotone energy descent while making the constrained target amenable to scalable gradient-based kernels. On synthetic phase-transition models it estimates marginal likelihood and draws posterior samples across first-order transitions where popular alternatives such as tempering fail. Applications include marginal likelihood estimation for Bayesian neural network architecture comparison and partition function estimation in a high-dimensional continuous lattice field theory.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 14, 17:16 UTC · 2d agoAI research1

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Convergent Emergence of In-Context Learning Across Modalities

Controlled experiments show few-shot in-context learning emerges across six modalities including language, genomes, images, and proteins, partially supporting a convergence hypothesis.

The paper tests the Convergent Emergence Hypothesis: that few-shot in-context learning, when it emerges, shares a common cross-modality difficulty profile. A controlled framework instantiated the same task suite across six modalities: language, genome, integer sequences, time series, images, and proteins. Paired-mapping ICL emerged in all six modalities, surpassed controlled baselines, and showed correlated per-task effects in five of them, providing partial support for the hypothesis.

Hugging Face daily papers·Sep 11, 20:00 UTC · 5d agoAI research

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NOAH: Learning the Full Patient Journey. A Longitudinal Multimodal Time-Aware Model for Representation and Forecasting

Researchers introduce NOAH, a time-aware generative transformer trained on 559 million MIMIC clinical events to forecast multimodal patient trajectories.

NOAH is a task-agnostic, time-aware generative transformer trained on over 559 million clinical events from 431,000 hospital visits by 299,000 patients across the MIMIC dataset family. It uses bidirectional time integration and a variational latent space to model the stochastic evolution of patient states, natively processing medical images, time-series signals, categorical events, and structured or unstructured clinical records. The model supports autoregressive forecasting with optional time control, zero-shot classification, and counterfactual intervention simulation, with strong probing performance across clinical outcomes, 15 ICD chapters, and 29 comorbidities.

Hugging Face daily papers·Sep 7, 20:00 UTC · 9d agoAI research1

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Generative Marketing Mix Modeling: A Causal Inference Framework Linking GEO and GEM to Business Impact

Paper proposes Generative Marketing Mix Modeling to causally estimate Generative Engine Optimization and Marketing effects on business outcomes.

The authors develop GMMM, a causal inference framework for measuring how often users see and notice a firm's name in generated answers, which standard marketing data ignore. For GEO it combines repeated generated answers with question counts, shares of generative-system usage and notice probabilities; for GEM it uses sponsored placement records with notice probabilities. The framework compares expected business responses under alternative treatment sequences, establishes identification conditions, and is evaluated on simulated product-recommendation answers in English and Japanese.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 10, 17:57 UTC · 6d agoAI research

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Learning Sparse Decision Trees via Transformer Variational Auto-Encoders

TREVIS uses a Tree Transformer VAE latent space to learn decision trees matching near-optimal predictive performance while improving structural sparsity.

TREVIS learns decision trees optimized for complex objectives by exploring the latent space of a Tree Transformer Variational Auto-Encoder (TTVAE). Mapping trees to continuous latent representations replaces the discrete search space with a continuous one, enabling gradient-based optimization through a differentiable surrogate model. Experiments show TREVIS matches the predictive performance of near-optimal algorithms while improving structural sparsity, targeting high-stakes contexts needing transparent decision logic.

Hugging Face daily papers·Aug 31, 20:00 UTC · 16d agoAI research

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ENCP: Episode-Normalized Conformal Prediction for Vision-and-Language Navigation

ENCP calibrates conformal prediction per navigation episode, giving step-level coverage guarantees for vision-language navigation agents despite within-episode dependence.

Episode-Normalized Conformal Prediction (ENCP) rescales a nonconformity score by a VLN policy's residual confidence and calibrates one maximum score per episode, preserving step-level coverage of at least 1−α despite dependence among steps within an episode. Across four VLN policies and three nonconformity scores on R2R and REVERIE, ENCP meets all reported empirical step-coverage targets in seen-to-unseen evaluation. The model-agnostic uncertainty estimates can signal when an agent should defer to a stronger predictor or human assistance.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 15, 17:42 UTC · 1d agoAI research

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Revisiting Complete Reasoning Traces for Post-Training

Researchers show full reasoning traces provide limited benefit in LLM post-training, with heavily truncated or endpoint-only trajectories performing comparably.

A pilot study plus attention-based analyses and controlled token-removal studies show intermediate tokens in reasoning trajectories contribute minimally to final reasoning quality. Partial trajectories remain effective even under heavy truncation, and training on endpoints alone leads to consistent changes in reasoning behavior. The finding also benefits reinforcement-learning and on-policy distillation post-training; code is released at github.com/naver-ai/revisiting-trace.

Hugging Face daily papers·Sep 6, 20:00 UTC · 10d agoAI research

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NOAH: Learning the Full Patient Journey. A Longitudinal Multimodal Time-Aware Model for Representation and Forecasting

Researchers introduce NOAH, a generative time-aware transformer trained on 559 million MIMIC clinical events to model and forecast patient trajectories.

NOAH is a task-agnostic, time-aware generative transformer designed to represent and forecast the full multimodal patient journey across medical images, time-series signals, categorical events, and clinical text. It was trained on over 559 million clinical events from 431,000 hospital visits covering 299,000 patients in the MIMIC dataset family. The architecture combines bidirectional time integration with a variational latent space to capture continuous patient state evolution and clinical stochasticity. NOAH supports autoregressive forecasting with time control, zero-shot classification, and counterfactual intervention simulation, with evaluations on 15 ICD chapters, 29 comorbidities, and time-to-event prediction.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 8, 17:56 UTC · 8d agoAI research2

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