Search: “causal-inference”

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Causal Foundation Models

A paper introduces causal foundation models (CFMs): pretrained networks that estimate treatment effects on new datasets via in-context learning without fine-tuning.

Causal foundation models (CFMs) apply the foundation-model paradigm to causal inference, replacing bespoke per-problem estimator pipelines with networks pretrained once at scale. CFMs estimate causal quantities such as the average treatment effect on entirely new datasets through in-context learning, without model updates. The work serves as a practical introduction to the emerging area, covering background in causal inference and machine learning and including example code and Jupyter notebooks.

Hugging Face daily papers·Sep 1, 20:00 UTC · 15d agoAI research

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CausalArena: Benchmarking Causal Discovery in the Foundation Model Era

Researchers introduce CausalArena, a unified benchmark revealing that causal discovery rankings shift substantially across structural causal model families and protocols.

The paper presents CausalArena, a unified and evolvable benchmark for causal discovery combining synthetic structural causal models, semantically grounded operational SCMs, formula-grounded scientific SCMs, and public real-world datasets. Experiments across classical, neural, and pretrained causal discovery foundation models show large ranking shifts between benchmark regimes. The authors identify pretraining-evaluation overlap and benchmark diversity as central evaluation challenges.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 10, 17:53 UTC · 6d agoAI research

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A Chosen Future Can Still Be Rewritten: Causal Writability in Video Models

Study shows video models often learn correct physics but fail to use it; low-dimensional 'causal writability' edits can restore correct motion.

The paper demonstrates 'causal writability' in video generation models: physically correct motion remains available inside the model even when the model outputs incorrect motion. In a red/blue mass oscillation setup, a low-dimensional edit predicted from simple physical variables restores correct fast motion, with a sharp depth boundary marking commitment. Early causal writability predicts which training errors later get corrected, and both writability and closure reproduce in a pretrained 1.3B video model.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 14, 17:58 UTC · 2d agoAI research

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Generative Marketing Mix Modeling: A Causal Inference Framework Linking GEO and GEM to Business Impact

Paper proposes Generative Marketing Mix Modeling to causally estimate Generative Engine Optimization and Marketing effects on business outcomes.

The authors develop GMMM, a causal inference framework for measuring how often users see and notice a firm's name in generated answers, which standard marketing data ignore. For GEO it combines repeated generated answers with question counts, shares of generative-system usage and notice probabilities; for GEM it uses sponsored placement records with notice probabilities. The framework compares expected business responses under alternative treatment sequences, establishes identification conditions, and is evaluated on simulated product-recommendation answers in English and Japanese.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 10, 17:57 UTC · 6d agoAI research

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Reason Through the Latent! Making Latent Visual Reasoning Necessary

Researchers introduce CVRR, forcing multimodal models to rely on recurrent latent computation rather than accessible image tokens, validated via causal interventions and benchmarks.

The paper presents Causal Visual Recurrent Reasoning (CVRR), which makes recurrent hidden-state computation the required image-conditioned path for prediction in vision-language models. Before decoding, visual states and the original multimodal KV cache are removed so only the final recurrent state carries image information to the answer. CVRR retains strong performance on V*, MMVP, BLINK, and MME-RealWorld-Lite while comparable latent reasoners fail under the same constraint. Causal interventions show predictions remain sensitive to recurrent content and that persistent visual evidence causally revises the recurrent trajectory.

Hugging Face daily papers·Sep 5, 20:00 UTC · 11d agoAI research

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From Reweighting to Rewriting: Unlocking the Intervention Effects of Influential Samples in Training Data Attribution

Study shows rewriting responses of influence-selected training examples shifts LLM behavior more strongly than reweighting the same samples.

The paper examines training data attribution, arguing that influence functions identify high-leverage examples whose value goes unrealized under conventional weight-based reweighting interventions. It introduces influence-guided response rewriting, which replaces the responses of influence-selected examples with behavior-aligned or behavior-opposed supervision while keeping instructions fixed, tested across four open-weight LLMs using epistemic abstention as the primary testbed. Rewriting produces stronger, more persistent, and bidirectional behavioral shifts, including on safety refusal, while reweighting the same examples yields weak, inconsistent effects. The results motivate intervention-aware evaluation of TDA methods.

Hugging Face daily papers·Sep 1, 20:00 UTC · 15d agoAI research

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Root-Cause Attribution Is a Search Problem: Continual Search for Long-Horizon Agent Failures

Continual Search framework iteratively prompts LLM judges to keep searching agent execution logs, boosting long-horizon failure root-cause attribution accuracy.

The paper frames automated root-cause attribution (RCA) for long-horizon AI agent failures as a search problem, since relevant evidence is sparse and distributed across massive execution traces. The authors propose Continual Search, an iterative framework that nudges an LLM judge across successive turns to keep hunting unresolved diagnostic evidence instead of settling on an early plausible diagnosis. They introduce MegaRCA-Mix, a benchmark of 50 human-annotated failure trials on long-horizon, execution-heavy tasks. On MegaRCA-Mix, Continual Search improves GPT-5.5's F1 from 0.349 to 0.498 (over 40% gain), and lower-tier models can surpass higher-tier counterparts when search is effective.

Hugging Face daily papers·Sep 10, 20:00 UTC · 6d agoAI research1

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RetroThinker: Enabling Retrospective Thinking in Speech LLMs

RetroThinker is a post-training framework letting the Moshi speech LLM self-correct reasoning mid-stream, adding 11% GSM8K accuracy at similar latency.

Researchers introduce RetroThinker, a multi-stage post-training framework that equips the Moshi speech LLM to verify and forward-correct chain-of-thought steps during streaming inference. It combines supervised fine-tuning on curated retrospective thinking data with length-based direct preference optimization (DPO). On GSM8K it achieves an 11% absolute accuracy gain over non-retrospective baselines at comparable latency.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 10, 17:41 UTC · 6d agoAI research1

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DynSHAP: Towards Explainable Dynamic Survival Analysis

DynSHAP extends SHAP explainability to dynamic survival analysis, treating time-feature pairs as Shapley players for longitudinal clinical predictions.

DynSHAP adapts marginal SHAP estimators to dynamic survival analysis by treating time-feature pairs as players in the Shapley game, handling longitudinal irregular inputs and functional survival outputs. Temporal DynSHAP learns linear feature dependencies over time and addresses them with conditional sampling. On synthetic data with ground-truth attributions it recovers temporally dependent features more accurately than marginal estimators, and it produces faithful attributions on two real-world clinical datasets across two DSA architectures.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 11, 16:39 UTC · 5d agoAI research

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Likelihood-free inference with nuisance parameters through normalizing flows

Researchers decompose normalizing flows to derive near-pivotal statistics for likelihood-free inference with nuisance parameters, recovering the t-test and beating Welch limits.

A new paper decomposes neural-network normalizing flows to uncover pivotal statistics in the presence of nuisance parameters using only a sample generator from the distribution of interest. The statistic is near-pivotal in the sense of minimum average KL-divergence of its p-values and can incorporate prior knowledge of group invariances such as translation and scale. Experiments show it recovers the one-sample t-test almost exactly, outperforms the Welch test on worst-case size over a constrained variance-ratio range, and delivers higher power and much faster runtime than profile likelihood-ratio techniques on small-to-moderate samples.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 9, 17:58 UTC · 7d agoAI research

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Necessary or Sufficient? Evaluating LLM Explanations With Behavioural Evidence

New framework tests whether LLM-cited explanation factors are necessary or sufficient, finding weak correlation across Claude, GPT, and Gemini models.

An arXiv paper introduces black-box intervention tests measuring whether factors LLMs cite in their explanations are necessary or sufficient for their outputs in agent oversight workflows. Across eight models from the Claude, GPT, and Gemini families, Spearman correlations between cited rankings and measured influence ranged from 0.349-0.354 (advisor recommendation) to 0.431-0.580 (prompt monitoring). Uncited factors scored above the lowest cited factor in up to 57.6% of advisor responses, showing cited top-three factors do not reliably identify the most influential inputs.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 4, 17:37 UTC · 12d agoAI safety & security1

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Reference-Based Bias Detection in LLMs via Relative Representations of Hidden States

Researchers propose auditing LLM bias via relative hidden-state representations, detecting bias increases with 3-50x less compute than output-level benchmarks.

The paper introduces a reference-based bias auditing method that compares hidden-state representations across model variants, such as before and after fine-tuning, by encoding sentences relative to a fixed anchor set. The resulting Representational Bias Shift (Delta-B) correlates with output-level bias change in 15 of 18 tested settings, reaching |r| = 0.84 under full fine-tuning across WildGuardMix, DecodingTrust, and ToxiGen benchmarks. Thresholding Delta-B detects checkpoints whose bias increased with ROC AUC between 0.65 and 0.99 and beats a SEAT-based baseline, while auditing a model in about three minutes with 3-50x less compute.

Hugging Face daily papers·Sep 8, 20:00 UTC · 8d agoAI research1

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Unfold The World: Factorize 4D Properties in Reinforcing Spatial Reasoning

FactoSR factorizes 4D spatial reasoning into XY, Z, and T reinforcement-learning sub-objectives, boosting VLM performance on VSI-Bench by 5.9% and All-Angles-Bench by 4.5%.

Researchers present FactoSR, a factorized reinforcement learning framework that decomposes world-consistent reasoning into planar correspondence, depth consistency, and temporal reversibility sub-objectives. Optimizing these verifiable constraints turns the ill-posed projection recovery problem into tangible reasoning steps. Evaluations show gains of 5.9% on VSI-Bench and 4.5% on All-Angles-Bench for 3D and 4D reasoning, arguing VLMs' spatial bottleneck stems from training on 2D projections versus latent 3D geometry and temporal continuity.

Hugging Face daily papers·Sep 2, 20:00 UTC · 14d agoAI research

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Molecular Déjà Vu: Digit-Level Retrieval of Published Values in Frontier Language Models

Audit of 22 frontier models finds widespread verbatim retrieval of published molecular property values, with higher reasoning increasing recall of memorized numbers.

An arXiv audit tests 22 frontier LLMs across 12 molecular regression benchmarks for verbatim retrieval of published values. More than 50% of the LLMs show verbatim retrieval on five datasets, and identical experiments are flagged 89% more often at a high reasoning level than at the lowest one. Suppressing retrieval moves model prediction errors closer together in relative terms, suggesting predictive capability is not determined solely by memorized values.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 4, 17:32 UTC · 12d agoAI research1

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Thought without systematicity? Evaluating reasoning models on rule induction tasks

Study finds reasoning models often fail on structurally equivalent variants of tasks they solve, suggesting their reasoning lacks systematicity.

The paper extends rule induction tasks from cognitive science using task isomorphisms such as recombination and substitution to test systematicity in reasoning models. Despite solving tasks correctly, models frequently fail on structurally equivalent variants of the same task. The authors conclude many model behaviors lack systematicity, making it difficult to establish cognitive abilities beyond the specific evaluation contexts.

Hugging Face daily papers·Sep 11, 20:00 UTC · 5d agoAI research

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ReCite: Agentic Reasoning for Faithful Citation

ReCite is an agentic citation framework using claim-level reasoning and verification, outperforming large generative models in strict citation accuracy.

ReCite is a decoupled agentic framework that orchestrates location perception, intent-aware query planning, and reflective verification for citation recommendation. Trained on synthesized reasoning trajectories, the agent verifies claim-evidence consistency and triggers self-correction loops when retrieved candidates lack logical support. Experiments show the lightweight framework outperforms state-of-the-art massive generative models in strict citation accuracy, addressing misattribution where cited papers are real but logically unsupportive.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 8, 17:59 UTC · 8d agoAI research

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Omni-Streaming Thinking

Omni-Streaming Thinking fixes premature cross-modal commitment in streaming omni-modal models via pending claims verified against modality-specific evidence, beating baselines by over 10%.

The paper identifies 'premature cross-modal commitment', where streaming models keep relaying early visual interpretations even after audio contradicts them. OST generates evidence-linked pending claims with future verification intervals, stores audio and visual evidence separately, and refutes claims when contradictory evidence appears. Built on a frozen Qwen3-Omni-30B-A3B-Instruct backbone with lightweight adaptation, it outperforms open baselines by more than 10% relative on five streaming and audio-visual benchmarks. On the new OST-DiagBench it reaches d-prime 2.95 versus at most 1.38 for open baselines, while reducing vision-induced auditory hallucinations.

Hugging Face daily papers·Sep 13, 20:00 UTC · 3d agoAI research1

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One Symptom, Three Levers: A Critical Review of On-Policy Self-Distillation

A review paper frames on-policy self-distillation collapse as governed by three levers: token weighting, privileged information, and guidance decay.

The paper critically reviews On-Policy Self-Distillation (OPSD), where a language model trains on its own generations scored token-by-token by a teacher conditioned on privileged information such as reference solutions or environment feedback. It identifies collapse, the progressive narrowing of producible reasoning paths, as the dominant failure mode and analyzes it through three levers: signal weighting, the nature of privileged information, and teacher dynamics. The review is restricted to mathematical reasoning, reports no new experiments, and offers a shared vocabulary separating settled findings from disputed ones.

Hugging Face daily papers·Aug 25, 20:00 UTC · 22d agoAI research

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Before You Poll with LLMs: A Deliberative Diagnostic Framework

Deliberative diagnostic shows all five tested frontier LLMs misrepresent human belief shifts after arguments, with GPT-5.1 reversing on outgroup questions.

The Deliberative Polling Diagnostic Framework compares human and LLM persona belief shifts after identical informational interventions, using data from America in One Room (526 personas, 72 questions). All five frontier models tested failed uniquely: GPT-5.1 exhibited partisan reversal (80% on outgroup vs 26% on policy questions), Gemini 2.0 Flash, Claude Sonnet 4.5 and Llama 3.3 70B overshot at 5-7x human magnitude, and DeepSeek V3 showed near-zero change (rigidity). The authors term the underlying signature 'self-sycophancy', conformity to the model's internal persona stereotype rather than reasoning from provided information.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 14, 16:41 UTC · 2d agoAI research

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Revisiting Complete Reasoning Traces for Post-Training

Researchers show full reasoning traces provide limited benefit in LLM post-training, with heavily truncated or endpoint-only trajectories performing comparably.

A pilot study plus attention-based analyses and controlled token-removal studies show intermediate tokens in reasoning trajectories contribute minimally to final reasoning quality. Partial trajectories remain effective even under heavy truncation, and training on endpoints alone leads to consistent changes in reasoning behavior. The finding also benefits reinforcement-learning and on-policy distillation post-training; code is released at github.com/naver-ai/revisiting-trace.

Hugging Face daily papers·Sep 6, 20:00 UTC · 10d agoAI research

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OracleZoom: On-Policy Self-Distillation Inspired Reference-Constrained Recursive Image Super Resolution

OracleZoom enables recursive extreme-scale image super-resolution via reference-constrained on-policy distillation, reducing hallucinations at deep zoom scales.

OracleZoom tackles recursive super-resolution, where repeated feeding of predictions back into the same model leaves deeper-scale outputs unsupervised as required source resolution grows geometrically. The framework trains on its own trajectory while carrying the last ground-truth evidence beyond the supervision boundary, combining direct and cross-scale supervision, a no-reference quality objective, a KL-constrained pretrained latent prior, and EMA consistency. Across seven datasets it achieves state-of-the-art SR quality across zoom scales, averaging 0.713 CLIPIQA with larger gains at deeper scales and significantly reduced hallucinations. Code, data, and models are publicly released.

Hugging Face daily papers·Sep 5, 20:00 UTC · 11d agoAI research

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Negative Self-Distillation: Learning to Reason by Avoiding Flaws

Researchers propose Negative Self-Distillation (NSD), a label-free LLM self-improvement method that diverges from self-generated flawed reasoning rather than imitating privileged solutions.

The authors show On-Policy Self-Distillation can degrade complex reasoning by forcing imitation of artificially confident traces built on privileged information, suppressing uncertainty and self-correction. NSD instead generates a question-specific negative condition — such as acting as a 'careless reasoner' — and pushes the model's distribution away from it without ground-truth labels. A dynamic gating mechanism isolates reasoning-critical tokens so gradient updates fix behavioral flaws without damaging foundational linguistic capabilities. NSD consistently outperforms OPSD and other label-free, self-bootstrapping reinforcement learning baselines.

Hugging Face daily papers·Sep 9, 20:00 UTC · 7d agoAI research1

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RelateAnything: Real-Time Open-Vocabulary Relation Prediction From Any Inputs

RelateAnything is a 53M-parameter open-vocabulary relation prediction model running at 20 ms/frame, with 2.3-3.5x higher mean recall than comparable open-vocabulary methods.

RelateAnything predicts scored relations between image regions using any predicate vocabulary supplied at inference as text embeddings, with object labels never required as input, so region sources can change without retraining. Training covers 19,103 predicates using positive-unlabeled supervision; the authors release RA-4M (474k images, 4.3M geometrically verified relations over 10,102 free-text predicates) and the OV-SGG-Bench evaluation suite. The 53M-parameter model runs at 20 ms/frame and achieves 2.3-3.5x the mean recall of the strongest comparable open-vocabulary method across cross-dataset and zero-shot benchmarks. Model, corpus, and benchmark are public.

Hugging Face daily papers·Sep 10, 20:00 UTC · 6d agoAI research1

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Large Language Models Develop Belief State Geometry In-Context

Probing six open-source LLMs on HMM-generated data shows belief states are linearly decodable (R² 0.83–0.99), suggesting in-context learning approximates Bayesian prediction.

Researchers prompted six open-source LLMs with data from 40 hidden Markov models selected for non-trivial belief structure and probed residual-stream activations for belief states (posteriors over hidden states). Belief states were linearly decodable with peak R² values of 0.83–0.99 across HMM/LLM combinations, spanning early to late layers. Patching and steering the probe-identified subspace preserved downstream prediction quality while control interventions degraded performance substantially, establishing functional relevance. The results provide representation-level evidence that in-context learning approximates optimal Bayesian prediction over a context-inferred generative model.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 15, 16:17 UTC · 1d agoAI research1

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Understanding the Impact of Model Pruning on Long-Tail Forgetting and Explanation Reliability in Medical Imaging

Systematic study finds model pruning causes frequency-dependent long-tail forgetting in medical imaging and that gradient-informed methods best preserve explanations.

Across two long-tailed medical imaging datasets, two CNN architectures, four pruning methods, and sparsity up to 95%, the study measures predictive performance, explanation stability, and faithfulness. Rare classes degrade earlier and more severely than frequent ones, while explanation reliability depends mainly on the pruning strategy, with gradient-informed methods degrading least. Mechanistic analysis ties explanation collapse to loss of class-discriminative gradients rather than vanishing feature activations, recommending class- and explanation-aware evaluation of compression.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 7, 17:44 UTC · 9d agoAI research

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MInTRL: Off-policy Intervention can boost On-policy RL

MInTRL injects sparse judge corrections into on-policy RL rollouts, expanding exploration beyond on-policy sampling while preserving learnability on math and code benchmarks.

Minimal Intervention Reinforcement Learning periodically has a judge-intervention policy replace erroneous suffixes of the current policy's output with short corrections, then returns control, keeping trajectories largely on-policy. Training uses a sequence-level advantage-regression objective that removes the need for importance sampling. Across math and code benchmarks it consistently beats standard on-policy and off-policy baselines, remains effective with self-intervention, and performs best at moderate intervention intensity.

Hugging Face daily papers·Sep 10, 20:00 UTC · 6d agoAI research

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Drift-Constrained Optimization: Only Direction Matters in Fine-Tuning Instruct Models

Drift-Constrained Optimization reformulates fine-tuning as update-direction selection, letting Qwen3 models improve target tasks within a behavioral drift budget.

The paper specifies a behavioral drift budget before optimization and shows that update direction is the remaining degree of freedom, reformulating fine-tuning as a direction-selection problem. In a stringent QA-only setting where instruct models must still generate multi-step reasoning at inference, a coarse layer-selective probe reverses the failure of QA-only fine-tuning. Across Qwen3-8B and Qwen3-14B, these directions substantially improve scientific reasoning and multilingual translation, matching or outperforming dedicated translation systems over 100+ languages and giving stronger initialization for reinforcement learning.

Hugging Face daily papers·Sep 11, 20:00 UTC · 5d agoAI research

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Evaluating Time-Series Foundation Models and Multimodal Dietary Context for CGM Forecasting

Study finds zero-shot time-series foundation models underperform on CGM forecasting; fine-tuned Chronos-Bolt cuts RMSE up to 18.4% and dietary context adds signal.

The paper evaluates time-series foundation models for continuous glucose monitoring forecasting across eight public datasets covering Type 1 diabetes, Type 2 diabetes, and non-diabetes populations. Under a unified protocol, zero-shot foundation models did not consistently outperform baselines like Elastic Net and PatchTST, but lightweight fine-tuning did, with fine-tuned Chronos-Bolt reducing RMSE by 6.5%-18.4% in the T1D cohort and 8.6%-18.2% in the non-diabetes/T2D cohort. A residual-based fusion framework adding dietary context from CGMacros reduced overall RMSE by about 3% and postprandial RMSE by about 15% versus CGM-only baselines.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 10, 17:43 UTC · 6d agoAI research

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LongAgent: History-Guided Agentic Search for Longitudinal Outcome Prediction

LongAgent autonomously searches variable sets and temporal windows to predict longitudinal medical outcomes, beating the strongest non-agent baseline on synthetic data.

The paper proposes LongAgent, an agent-based method that searches over combinations of variable sets, temporal windows and aggregation functions for outcome prediction on heterogeneous medical longitudinal data. It uses a history memory of previous searches and numerical evidence to guide exploration. On synthetic data it achieves mean RMSE 1.7376, improving over the best non-agent baseline by 0.0151 (95% CI [0.0045, 0.0260]; p=0.0273), and performs comparably to the best baseline on a real clinical dataset.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 14, 16:51 UTC · 2d agoAI research

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E2A-Bench: Benchmarking Evidence-to-Action Reliability in Financial Chart Reasoning

E2A-Bench, a 969-query financial chart reasoning benchmark, finds VLMs fail evidence-to-action consistency, with fine-tuning amplifying BUY:SELL bias 4-6x.

E2A-Bench is a 969-query benchmark built from 323 HS300 constituents across three input modalities with deterministic OHLCV-derived evidence anchors, evaluating grounding, reasoning-action consistency, evidence-confidence calibration, and directional coverage via UCR, RCI, ECI, and NDR metrics. Testing 20 VLMs showed the lowest-hallucination model ranked near the bottom on coverage with only 6.4% directional coverage, and oracle-aided verification reduced unsupported claims but could collapse coverage. Financial fine-tuning amplified the BUY:SELL ratio by factors of 4.21 to 4.68 across base-fine-tuned pairs.

Hugging Face daily papers·Sep 12, 20:00 UTC · 4d agoAI research

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