Search: “energy-forecasting”

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Explainability Assistant: A Conversational XAI Interface for Interpreting Energy Consumption Models

Researchers release Explainability Assistant, an open-source conversational XAI tool using LLM function calling, lifting intent-parsing accuracy from 76.8% to 94%.

The paper introduces the Explainability Assistant, an open-source conversational XAI system for interpreting energy consumption forecasting models such as genetic-programming symbolic regressors. It uses LLM function calling instead of rigid custom grammars, achieving 94% intent-parsing accuracy versus 76.8% for prior work TalkToModel, and adapts to different ML problem types without task-specific fine-tuning. Comparative evaluation with energy domain specialists against a traditional XAI dashboard showed improved usability, with all experts preferring the conversational interface.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 10, 17:40 UTC · 6d agoAI research1

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Large Language Models for HVAC Operations in Building Energy Systems: A Critical Review of Methods, Applications, and Deployment Readiness

Systematic review of 66 studies finds LLMs for HVAC operations are mostly research-stage, with no ready-now deployment and only four pilot-level studies.

A critical review of 66 peer-reviewed studies from 2023 to March 2026 examines LLMs for HVAC operations in building energy systems. Only four studies reach pilot-level evidence, none reports sustained operational deployment, and 63 of 66 are research-only. Conventional ML, MPC, and RL remain dominant for high-frequency control and short-horizon forecasting, and the evidence supports LLMs primarily as semantic and workflow layers rather than autonomous controllers.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 4, 16:08 UTC · 12d agoAI research

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Bridging Control, Inference, Transport, and Thermodynamics: From Theory to Applications in Learning

Review connects control theory, optimal transport, probabilistic inference, thermodynamics, and machine learning via free-energy optimization under constraints.

The review unifies five fields: control theory, optimal transport, probabilistic inference, non-equilibrium thermodynamics, and machine learning. The common conceptual thread is optimization of free-energy-like functionals under dynamical or statistical constraints. Selected applications are presented in reinforcement learning, variational inference, and generative modeling. The tutorial-style text assumes no prior familiarity and begins from physics principles.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 14, 17:16 UTC · 2d agoAI research

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Google's new AI model predicts the future from sales data, weather, and discount schedules

Google Research released TimesFM-3, a 330M-parameter multivariate time series forecasting model that tops Gift-Eval, FEV-Bench, and Time benchmarks and is on Hugging Face.

Google Research released TimesFM-3, a 330-million-parameter Transformer-based time series forecasting model trained on more than one trillion real and synthetic data points. It works zero-shot and adds multivariate support, ingesting related series, historical-only covariates, and known future events such as discount schedules and weather forecasts, while filling all future time steps in a single one-shot pass. Google reports first place among pretrained forecasting models on Gift-Eval, FEV-Bench, and Time, ahead of Amazon's Chronos-2, the Toto-2.0 family, and its own TimesFM-2.5. Weights are available on GitHub and Hugging Face, with BigQuery integration planned in the coming weeks.

The Decoder·Sep 12, 09:26 UTC · 4d agoModel release2

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Competence-Gated Pooling of Language Models and Priors for Event Forecasting

Paper proposes a competence gate pooling language model forecasts with external priors, improving Brier score from 0.0771 to 0.0732 across 2,357 binary questions.

The paper defines a language model's relative competence as its marginal value beyond an available external forecast, and derives conditions under Brier loss where model disagreement improves that forecast. A competence gate estimates domain-level source weights from resolved outcomes, shrinks uncertain estimates toward a global weight, and recalibrates the pooled forecast. Across 2,357 resolved binary questions and five language models, it improves the external baseline from 0.0771 to 0.0732 Brier and beats global forecast combinations, though it defers to the market on ForecastBench. Across four Qwen models, verbal confidence failed to identify when the model outperformed the external forecast, while outcome-estimated competence supported better abstention.

Hugging Face daily papers·Sep 9, 20:00 UTC · 7d agoAI research

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Evaluating Time-Series Foundation Models and Multimodal Dietary Context for CGM Forecasting

Study finds zero-shot time-series foundation models underperform on CGM forecasting; fine-tuned Chronos-Bolt cuts RMSE up to 18.4% and dietary context adds signal.

The paper evaluates time-series foundation models for continuous glucose monitoring forecasting across eight public datasets covering Type 1 diabetes, Type 2 diabetes, and non-diabetes populations. Under a unified protocol, zero-shot foundation models did not consistently outperform baselines like Elastic Net and PatchTST, but lightweight fine-tuning did, with fine-tuned Chronos-Bolt reducing RMSE by 6.5%-18.4% in the T1D cohort and 8.6%-18.2% in the non-diabetes/T2D cohort. A residual-based fusion framework adding dietary context from CGMacros reduced overall RMSE by about 3% and postprandial RMSE by about 15% versus CGM-only baselines.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 10, 17:43 UTC · 6d agoAI research

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NOAH: Learning the Full Patient Journey. A Longitudinal Multimodal Time-Aware Model for Representation and Forecasting

Researchers introduce NOAH, a generative time-aware transformer trained on 559 million MIMIC clinical events to model and forecast patient trajectories.

NOAH is a task-agnostic, time-aware generative transformer designed to represent and forecast the full multimodal patient journey across medical images, time-series signals, categorical events, and clinical text. It was trained on over 559 million clinical events from 431,000 hospital visits covering 299,000 patients in the MIMIC dataset family. The architecture combines bidirectional time integration with a variational latent space to capture continuous patient state evolution and clinical stochasticity. NOAH supports autoregressive forecasting with time control, zero-shot classification, and counterfactual intervention simulation, with evaluations on 15 ICD chapters, 29 comorbidities, and time-to-event prediction.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 8, 17:56 UTC · 8d agoAI research2

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Distill Globally, Adapt Locally: Reasoning Distillation and Product-Type Test-Time Training for Scalable Trade-Up Recommendation

A distillation framework compresses LLM reasoning into a 15.5M-parameter trade-up recommendation model reaching AUC 0.941 with product-type test-time training.

The paper targets trade-up recommendation, which identifies higher-quality alternatives that preserve customer purchase intent. A retrieval-augmented few-shot LLM teacher generates labels and rationales that supervise a compact embedding-pair classifier; at inference the 15.5M-parameter student uses only two precomputed 768-dimensional embeddings with no LLM calls. On 8,352 annotated pairs, label-only training scored AUC 0.912, reasoning distillation reached 0.924, and product-type test-time training lifted it to 0.941 with average precision 0.940. The distilled student is roughly 5,000x faster and 10,000x cheaper than direct LLM inference on a 100K-pair proxy catalog.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 4, 17:08 UTC · 12d agoAI research

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Generative Marketing Mix Modeling: A Causal Inference Framework Linking GEO and GEM to Business Impact

Paper proposes Generative Marketing Mix Modeling to causally estimate Generative Engine Optimization and Marketing effects on business outcomes.

The authors develop GMMM, a causal inference framework for measuring how often users see and notice a firm's name in generated answers, which standard marketing data ignore. For GEO it combines repeated generated answers with question counts, shares of generative-system usage and notice probabilities; for GEM it uses sponsored placement records with notice probabilities. The framework compares expected business responses under alternative treatment sequences, establishes identification conditions, and is evaluated on simulated product-recommendation answers in English and Japanese.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 10, 17:57 UTC · 6d agoAI research

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Learning-Guided Planning in Large Dynamic Action Spaces: Budgeted Tree Search for One-to-Many Mobile Charging

LP-BTS uses graph proposal policies, learned critics, and budgeted PUCT search to plan mobile charging across dynamic action spaces up to 2,813 stops.

LP-BTS is a learning-guided planning architecture for one-to-many mobile charging, where N=250 sensors induce roughly 1,125 initial candidate charging stops. A graph proposal policy concentrates candidate support, a learned value critic evaluates leaves, and edge-budgeted PUCT compares simulated futures, letting a single frozen checkpoint cover action universes from 736 to 2,813 stops. On a sealed 30-scenario confirmatory bank it attains the highest observed survival (0.4545) and alive-AUC (0.8031), though its +0.0066 survival edge over the strongest engineered comparator is statistically unresolved.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 15, 16:42 UTC · 1d agoAI research

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Self-Verifying Anomaly Detection using Explainable AI for Cybersecurity of DER Networks

ExCYDER framework self-verifies anomaly detection alerts for DER power grids using LightGBM and SHAP, reaching over 98% detection accuracy.

The paper presents ExCYDER, an explainable AI anomaly detection framework for Distributed Energy Resource networks that combines LightGBM with SHAP to validate whether each model decision aligns with its feature-attribution evidence. On a realistic DNP3 dataset it achieved over 98% detection accuracy, 14.5 ms SHAP latency per alert, and confidence deviation within 5%. The self-verifying mechanism distinguishes coherent from inconsistent alerts, improving interpretability and auditability for DER-focused security operations centers.

arXiv cs.CR·Sep 11, 00:19 UTC · 5d agoResearch

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NOAH: Learning the Full Patient Journey. A Longitudinal Multimodal Time-Aware Model for Representation and Forecasting

Researchers introduce NOAH, a time-aware generative transformer trained on 559 million MIMIC clinical events to forecast multimodal patient trajectories.

NOAH is a task-agnostic, time-aware generative transformer trained on over 559 million clinical events from 431,000 hospital visits by 299,000 patients across the MIMIC dataset family. It uses bidirectional time integration and a variational latent space to model the stochastic evolution of patient states, natively processing medical images, time-series signals, categorical events, and structured or unstructured clinical records. The model supports autoregressive forecasting with optional time control, zero-shot classification, and counterfactual intervention simulation, with strong probing performance across clinical outcomes, 15 ICD chapters, and 29 comorbidities.

Hugging Face daily papers·Sep 7, 20:00 UTC · 9d agoAI research1

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University of Manchester Uses NVIDIA Earth-2 to Forecast Air Pollution Across the UK

University of Manchester retrained NVIDIA Earth-2 CorrDiff and StormCast on Isambard-AI to forecast UK air pollution at 2-3 km resolution.

University of Manchester researchers led by professor David Topping adapted NVIDIA's Earth-2 generative AI frameworks to forecast air pollution across the UK. Earth-2 CorrDiff was retrained in two days on a single eight-GPU node of Isambard-AI (5,448 GH200 Grace Hopper Superchips, 21 exaflops) using a year of hourly simulated pollution data, producing a UK-wide model at 2-3 square kilometer resolution. The team added Earth-2 StormCast for time-dependent forecasts that ingest real air quality observations, and demonstrated the workflow runs on the DGX Spark desktop AI system. Open-source training data and workflows are planned so other countries and cities can build similar pollution models.

NVIDIA Blog·05:00 UTC · 17h agoAI industry

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Eliciting Weak-to-Strong Generalization with On-Policy Reverse Distillation

OPRD distillation enables weak-to-strong generalization by amplifying verifier-supported policy updates, outperforming existing RL and distillation methods with fewer student updates.

On-Policy Reverse Distillation (OPRD) evaluates a weak teacher's policy shift relative to its reference policy on student rollouts and amplifies the verifier-supported component of the student's policy gradient. This rescaling preserves the stationary points of policy optimization while letting the student learn beyond the teacher's capacity ceiling. In successive model transfer and multi-teacher distillation, OPRD achieves higher performance with fewer student updates than existing RL and distillation approaches, and response-style analysis shows students remain closer to verifier-RL-trained models than to their weak teachers.

Hugging Face daily papers·Sep 7, 20:00 UTC · 9d agoAI research

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NCP-ArchPreview Technical Report: Moving towards Latent Space Language Models through Next Concept Prediction

An 8.9B-parameter latent-space language model using next-concept prediction matches OLMo-3-7B pretraining loss with only 51.3% of the training tokens.

NCP-ArchPreview augments next-token prediction with Next Concept Prediction over a product-quantized concept vocabulary built from hidden states, trained jointly end-to-end. The 8.9B model was trained on 5.73T tokens from the Dolma-3 dataset, the largest latent-space language model demonstration to date. It consumes 51.3% of the tokens to reach OLMo-3-7B's final pretraining loss and outperforms it by 2.45 points on the downstream macro-average, including a 5.99-point GSM8K gain. The learned latent space also enables lightweight domain adaptation via a 17M-parameter VQ module and improves speculative drafting accepted length by 4.17%.

Hugging Face daily papers·Sep 8, 20:00 UTC · 8d agoAI research1

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Making Knowledge Distillation Cheap Enough to Run at Scale

Hugging Face blog by Multiverse Computing describes techniques making knowledge distillation cheap enough for large-scale training.

A Hugging Face blog post from Multiverse Computing (CAI) presents methods for reducing the cost of knowledge distillation so it can be run at scale. The post is aimed at practitioners compressing large models into smaller, cheaper ones for production use.

Hugging Face Blog·Aug 10, 10:05 UTC · Aug 10, 2026AI research

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Multi-Task Learning for Sparsely-Labeled Time Series: A Case Study on Cold-Hardiness Modeling

Multi-task RNN architectures pooling sparse cultivar data improve grape cold-hardiness and budbreak prediction over single-task and scientific baselines.

Researchers apply recurrent neural networks to daily grape cold-hardiness prediction from weather time series, where per-cultivar labels are temporally sparse and limited. They design multiple multi-task learning architectures that treat cultivars as tasks and evaluate them in both MTL and transfer learning settings. Certain architectures consistently outperform single-task learning and state-of-the-art scientific models, and a single MTL model jointly learning cold hardiness and budbreak improves accuracy on both tasks.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 8, 17:17 UTC · 8d agoAI research

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Cadence: Error-Bounded Lossy Compression of Demand Time Series with a Time-Series Foundation Model

Cadence pairs Google's 330M-parameter TimesFM-3 foundation model with adaptive arithmetic coding, gaining 13-28% on 2026 demand series over classical predictors.

Cadence is an error-bounded lossy compressor for numeric time series combining the 330M-parameter Google TimesFM-3 foundation model with an adaptive arithmetic coder, guaranteeing a per-sample error bound. On 49 EIA-930 balancing-authority demand series from 2026 it gains 13.3% over the best of six classical predictors and 28.3% on 50 MTA ridership series, winning all 297 series-tolerance pairs with a 21.4% median gain. The paper also reports negative results, including that foundation models add negligible value for lossless coding and that PyTorch predictions are not bit-identical across batch sizes.

Hugging Face daily papers·Sep 4, 20:00 UTC · 12d agoAI research1

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Implementation of Machine Learning Workflows with NVIDIA cuML, RAPIDS, GPU Benchmarking, Explainability, Clustering, and Model Inference

Hands-on tutorial implements NVIDIA cuML and RAPIDS to GPU-accelerate scikit-learn-style ML workflows with benchmarking, clustering, and inference.

The tutorial demonstrates NVIDIA cuML as a GPU-accelerated machine learning framework, using cuml.accel to speed up unmodified scikit-learn scripts with zero code changes and the native cuML API for CuPy/cuDF interoperability. It benchmarks CPU versus GPU implementations of PCA, K-Means, nearest-neighbor search, logistic regression, random forests, and DBSCAN on datasets up to 200,000 samples with 64 features. It also builds GPU pipelines with UMAP, t-SNE, and HDBSCAN, validates GPU-generated SHAP explanations, uses the FIL library for forest inference, and covers model serialization and GPU/CPU portability.

MarkTechPost·Sep 13, 01:42 UTC · 3d agoAI tools & infra

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Introducing WeatherNext 3, our most advanced and accurate global weather AI model

Google DeepMind launches WeatherNext 3, an AI weather model delivering hourly 5-km forecasts from live satellite data, now integrated across Google products.

WeatherNext 3 ingests live geostationary satellite mosaics and station observations through a Functional Generative Network (FGN) mesh transformer, producing hourly forecasts at 5-km surface resolution versus WeatherNext 2's 25-km, 6-hour grid. Independent live evaluations by Brightband rate it the most accurate global weather model to date. It adds renewable-energy variables such as 100-meter turbine-height wind speeds and solar radiation, and is integrated across Search, Gemini, Maps, Google Maps Platform, and Cloud.

Google DeepMind·Sep 3, 15:02 UTC · 13d agoModel release

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Saving Jet Fuel

Tutorial optimizes flight paths to cut jet fuel costs using open-source Scikit-decide planning framework and OpenAP aircraft performance models.

A technical walkthrough demonstrates wind-aware flight path optimization using Scikit-decide, an open-source framework for reinforcement learning and automated planning, paired with OpenAP fuel-consumption models built by Dr. Junzi Sun at TU Delft and NOAA wind data. A Boeing 787-9 flying EWR to FCO can require roughly $68K in fuel, and adjusted routing could save thousands. The post uses Python 3.12, DuckDB with spatial extensions, and QGIS for map rendering.

Hacker News · AI·Sep 15, 23:17 UTC · 23h agoAI tools & infraHN 45↑ · 19 comments

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Google’s AI weather model now uses more raw satellite data

Google launched WeatherNext 3, an AI weather model using raw satellite data that beats ECMWF and now powers Search, Gemini, and Maps.

Google released WeatherNext 3, an AI weather forecasting model that incorporates physical surface information (land/ocean type and elevation) to improve surface temperature and dewpoint calculations, improving point location temperature accuracy by up to 30 percent. Its white paper reports roughly 5 percent better upper-atmosphere accuracy than WeatherNext 2, equating to about six additional hours of forecast lead time, outperforming the ECMWF AI model on these metrics. The model now supplies forecast information across Google Search, Gemini, and Maps, though the paper notes unexplained short-lead degraded results and grid-shaped artifacts in some predictions.

Ars Technica · AI·Sep 8, 18:00 UTC · 8d agoModel release

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Quenched Ensemble Sampling

Quenched Ensemble Sampling generalizes nested sampling's hard energy constraint to repulsive potentials, traversing first-order phase transitions where tempering fails.

Quenched Ensemble Sampling generalizes nested sampling's hard energy constraint into a family of repulsive potentials at the energy boundary, preserving monotone energy descent while making the constrained target amenable to scalable gradient-based kernels. On synthetic phase-transition models it estimates marginal likelihood and draws posterior samples across first-order transitions where popular alternatives such as tempering fail. Applications include marginal likelihood estimation for Bayesian neural network architecture comparison and partition function estimation in a high-dimensional continuous lattice field theory.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 14, 17:16 UTC · 2d agoAI research1

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State of Open Models: Summer 2026 Observations

Hugging Face publishes observations on the state of the open-weights model ecosystem as of summer 2026.

A Hugging Face blog post titled 'State of Open Models: Summer 2026 Observations' surveys developments across the open-weights model ecosystem. No article text was available, so specific model releases, benchmarks, and findings are not detailed here.

Hugging Face Blog·Aug 14, 00:00 UTC · Aug 14, 2026AI industry

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One Symptom, Three Levers: A Critical Review of On-Policy Self-Distillation

A review paper frames on-policy self-distillation collapse as governed by three levers: token weighting, privileged information, and guidance decay.

The paper critically reviews On-Policy Self-Distillation (OPSD), where a language model trains on its own generations scored token-by-token by a teacher conditioned on privileged information such as reference solutions or environment feedback. It identifies collapse, the progressive narrowing of producible reasoning paths, as the dominant failure mode and analyzes it through three levers: signal weighting, the nature of privileged information, and teacher dynamics. The review is restricted to mathematical reasoning, reports no new experiments, and offers a shared vocabulary separating settled findings from disputed ones.

Hugging Face daily papers·Aug 25, 20:00 UTC · 22d agoAI research

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Semigroup-JEPA: Latent Dynamics Consistency for Zero-Shot Physics Generalization

SG-JEPA world model conditions latent prediction on physical parameters, halving open-loop prediction error versus DINO-WM and boosting robotic control success.

SG-JEPA extends the LeWorldModel JEPA framework by supplying the governing physics parameter to the temporal model via action-conditioning and jointly training an encoder and predictor through autoregressive latent rollout. On out-of-distribution gravitational-field tasks it reduces open-loop prediction error by up to 2x versus DINO-WM on 2D datasets and increases 3D robotic control success rate up to 2.5x using independently trained diffusion policies. A linear feature analysis attributes most of the gain to the encoder learning features that the predictor can carry forward through rollout.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 9, 17:08 UTC · 7d agoAI research

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Scalability Analysis of Distributed Kolmogorov-Arnold Network Training on High-Performance Computing Systems

An empirical study shows distributed Kolmogorov-Arnold Network training reaches 74.7% parallel efficiency at 8 A100 GPUs, with overheads driven by All-Reduce choices.

The study evaluates data-parallel Kolmogorov-Arnold Network (KAN) training on the FinisTerrae III supercomputer using up to 8 NVIDIA A100 GPUs across 4 nodes with PyTorch Distributed Data Parallel. Strong scaling yields 5.97x speedup and 74.7% parallel efficiency at 8 GPUs, comparable to conventional deep learning workloads, while communication overhead ranges from 1.3% to 6.1%, driven mainly by All-Reduce algorithm selection and inter-node latency rather than KAN's edge-wise gradient structure. Weak scaling shows an initial single-to-multi-GPU throughput drop followed by stability, and the parameter-to-memory ratio improves with model size even as training time scales unfavorably. The authors provide GPU topology and model-size deployment guidelines for KAN training.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 7, 16:45 UTC · 9d agoAI research1

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Opaque recurrence, and other AI terms that you should probably know

TechCrunch updates its plain-English glossary defining common AI terms from AGI and agents to chain-of-thought reasoning.

TechCrunch maintains a regularly updated glossary of AI terminology, defining terms such as AGI, AI agents, API endpoints, chain of thought, coding agents, compute, deep learning, and diffusion. It highlights 'opaque recurrence', the reasoning technique in OpenAI's new Astra model that has drawn attention from AI safety researchers. The piece is an educational living document rather than new research or a product announcement.

TechCrunch · AI·Sep 7, 19:24 UTC · 9d agoAI industry1

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Climate-ModernBERT: Revisiting Corpus Composition for Domain-Adaptive Continued Pretraining

Climate-ModernBERT domain-adapted encoders reach 76.3 average F1 across nine climate benchmarks, 2.8 points above vanilla ModernBERT-Base.

The authors continue pretraining ModernBERT-Base on three climate corpora - academic text, climate-filtered web data, and synthetic documents - and compare joint mixtures against parameter-space merging of specialized checkpoints. The best model achieves 76.3 average F1 across nine climate NLP benchmarks, a 2.8-point improvement over the vanilla baseline. Academic climate corpora provide the strongest adaptation signal, and parameter-space merging outperforms joint multi-source training while preserving complementary corpus information; all variants are released.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 7, 17:41 UTC · 9d agoAI research

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MCRL2: Multi-resource Cross-attention-based Representation Learning-augmented Reinforcement Learning for Cloud Microservice Scheduling

MCRL2 augments reinforcement learning with multi-resource cross-attention representations to improve cloud microservice scheduling and load balancing.

MCRL2 combines a multi-resource cross-attention representation learning module (MCRL) with an actor-critic architecture and maximum entropy objective for microservice scheduling. The approach captures interdependencies among nodes, resources, and microservices in data centers. Experiments on real production cluster traces show improvements in load balancing, scheduling success rate, and average completion time versus baselines.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 11, 16:44 UTC · 5d agoAI research1

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