ZeroHour

Search: “monte-carlo-dropout”

30 stories

Smart search ranks by meaning as well as keywords (one row per story, last 45 days).

Implementing a White-Box Undetectable Backdoor for Random Fourier Features

Researchers implement Goldwasser's CLWE-based undetectable backdoor for Random Fourier Features models in numpy/scipy, confirming practical realizability with no detectable differences from clean models.

The paper provides an end-to-end implementation of the Goldwasser et al. white-box undetectable backdoor for models trained with the Random Fourier Features algorithm, using only numpy and scipy. It derives two samplers for the core GP_d(b_k) distribution: a rejection-sampling proxy and an exact closed-form sampler verified against its analytic form. Statistical indistinguishability tests covering weight-space and functional black-box comparisons found no detectable difference between backdoored and clean models across sparsity ratios. The underlying lattice hardness reduction was not reproduced, and the work demonstrates the threat is realizable with commodity scientific-computing tools rather than specialized cryptographic infrastructure.

arXiv cs.CR · 2d agoResearch

Searching for New Physics with Reinforcement Learning

Researchers apply reinforcement learning to identify SMEFT operators explaining particle physics anomalies, reproducing and improving known CDF W-mass results.

The paper introduces a reinforcement learning method to search the large Standard Model Effective Field Theory (SMEFT) operator space for explanations of measurement anomalies. It was validated on the CDF W-mass anomaly, reproducing and improving known results, then applied to a harder multi-anomaly scenario. RL efficiently navigates complex loop-level operator correlations that bias human-driven phenomenological analysis.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL · 7d agoAI research

Reduced-Space Multi-Fidelity Bayesian Optimization of Process Simulation Models

RS-MFBO couples global sensitivity analysis with fidelity-augmented Gaussian processes to slash costly high-fidelity simulation runs in industrial flowsheet optimization.

The paper presents RS-MFBO, a reduced-space multi-fidelity Bayesian optimization framework for high-dimensional, expensive black-box functions. It integrates Global Sensitivity Analysis for dimensionality reduction with a fidelity-augmented Gaussian process and a cost-aware acquisition strategy featuring cooldown and promotion mechanisms. Validation on a plasmid DNA bioprocess (SuperPro Designer) and a green fuel synthesis plant (Aspen HYSYS) shows substantial reductions in high-fidelity evaluations while remaining competitive with single-fidelity baselines.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL · 1d agoAI research

The Price of Sparsity: Sufficient Conditions for Sparse Recovery using Sparse and Sparsified Measurements

Researchers derive sufficient sample-size conditions for recovering sparse binary signals from sparse Gaussian measurements, quantifying an information-theoretic threshold of order slog(p/s)/log(ds/p).

The paper studies support recovery of sparse binary signals from noisy linear measurements. For sparse Gaussian designs, the authors identify sufficient minimal sample sizes for maximum-likelihood recovery in the high-SNR regime d*s/p -> infinity, yielding an information-theoretic threshold of order slog(p/s)/log(ds/p) that makes the price of measurement sparsity explicit. They also show a regime where the sample-complexity loss from sparsity is only logarithmic while computational gains are nearly linear, and prove that for independently sparsified dense Gaussian designs a sample size of order p/ψ² suffices for support recovery at any fixed error level.

Hugging Face daily papers · 9d agoAI research

Double descent is the principle of least actionnew

A statistical mechanics analysis explains double descent: finite-time diffusion induces effective weight decay that regularizes models as parameters grow.

The paper models stochastic gradient-based training as a particle diffusing over the training-loss energy landscape at an induced temperature, sampling parameters via a Boltzmann distribution. Finite training time carries an effective weight decay, making every parameter a quadratic degree of freedom governed by the equipartition theorem. Adding parameters at fixed training loss lowers the temperature and the L2 norm of the stationary path, increasing effective regularization and explaining the double descent phenomenon.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL · 11h agoAI research

Learning to Solve Hard Problems in RL for LLMs by Never Giving Up

Paper introduces Never Give Up adaptive sampling, fixing RL's 'Matthew Effect' where compute is wasted on easy problems and hard problems see little improvement.

Researchers identify a 'Matthew Effect' in reinforcement learning for LLMs, where RL yields large gains on easy problems but minimal improvement on hard ones because compute is misallocated. They propose Never Give Up (NGU), an adaptive sampling method that keeps generating samples for a problem until one is correct, using asynchronous RL to filter easy problems cheaply and concentrate compute on hard ones. NGU improves performance per compute on the Deepscaler math benchmark and iteratively solves the Manufactoria coding task where standard GRPO with per-test reward fails.

Hugging Face daily papers · 6d agoAI research

Quenched Ensemble Sampling

Quenched Ensemble Sampling generalizes nested sampling's hard energy constraint to repulsive potentials, traversing first-order phase transitions where tempering fails.

Quenched Ensemble Sampling generalizes nested sampling's hard energy constraint into a family of repulsive potentials at the energy boundary, preserving monotone energy descent while making the constrained target amenable to scalable gradient-based kernels. On synthetic phase-transition models it estimates marginal likelihood and draws posterior samples across first-order transitions where popular alternatives such as tempering fail. Applications include marginal likelihood estimation for Bayesian neural network architecture comparison and partition function estimation in a high-dimensional continuous lattice field theory.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL · 2d agoAI research1

Likelihood-free inference with nuisance parameters through normalizing flows

Researchers decompose normalizing flows to derive near-pivotal statistics for likelihood-free inference with nuisance parameters, recovering the t-test and beating Welch limits.

A new paper decomposes neural-network normalizing flows to uncover pivotal statistics in the presence of nuisance parameters using only a sample generator from the distribution of interest. The statistic is near-pivotal in the sense of minimum average KL-divergence of its p-values and can incorporate prior knowledge of group invariances such as translation and scale. Experiments show it recovers the one-sample t-test almost exactly, outperforms the Welch test on worst-case size over a constrained variance-ratio range, and delivers higher power and much faster runtime than profile likelihood-ratio techniques on small-to-moderate samples.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL · 7d agoAI research

Target leakage, not model class, explains reported accuracy in survey-based cardiovascular screening: a leakage-tiered audit of glass-box and tabular foundation models

Audits of 10 classifiers on BRFSS show target leakage, not model class, drives the reported 0.89 AUROC in survey-based cardiovascular screening.

The study benchmarks ten model classes, including glass-box and tabular foundation models, for prevalent myocardial infarction on 442,067 respondents of the 2022 BRFSS across five feature tiers of decreasing leakage risk. Removing two post-diagnostic features costs every model 0.049-0.051 AUROC and collapses performance into a 0.0045-wide band, and the explainable boosting machine matches all alternatives within 0.005 while scoring roughly 104x faster than the strongest foundation model. Frozen models transport within 0.002 AUROC to 2023 data; the authors conclude evaluation practice and feature sets, not model capacity, are the binding constraint.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL · 6d agoAI research1

Decomposition-Guided Diffusion Language Models for Inertial Confinement Fusion Prediction

ICF-DLM, the first language-model-based inertial confinement fusion predictor, cuts peak-timing error from 11.6 to 9.2 steps versus LLaMA-3-8B.

Each National Ignition Facility shot costs roughly one million dollars, motivating accurate AI surrogates for predicting 512-step neutron-rate waveforms from laser pulses and target parameters. ICF-DLM combines physics-typed decomposition into yield, peak timing, and local waveform; bidirectional denoising that defers commitment to peak location; and a physics-driven PPO reward. On ICFBench (50,000 simulations plus 232 experimental shots) it outperforms a matched autoregressive LLaMA-3-8B, classical sequence models, and LLM-based time-series predictors.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL · 9d agoAI research

Data Scarcity and Model Sparsity: Mixtures-of-Experts Overfit More to Repeated Data

Study finds Mixture-of-Experts models overfit faster than dense Transformers under repeated training data, with degradation tied to total parameter sparsity.

Across models from 80M to 1B active parameters (8.5B total), MoE architectures degrade more rapidly than dense models when training data is repeated, with the effect increasing with sparsity as dictated by total parameters. Dense 80M models tolerate 8x repetition with minimal loss while MoEs suffer at 4x and underperform dense models beyond 32x. Masking-based regularization such as dropout mitigates overfitting, letting MoEs beat dense models even at over 64x repetition, though no method matches all-unique training data. Routing stabilizes early and expert specialization correlates with overfitting to repeated data.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL · 6d agoAI research

Quantile-based Loss Filtering for Outlier-Robust Stochastic Gradient Descent

Quantile-k-Loss SGD filters corrupted component losses by quantile sampling, proving linear convergence while outperforming standard and min-k-loss SGD.

The paper proposes Quantile-k-Loss SGD (Q(k)L-SGD), a loss-filtering framework for finite-sum optimization with corrupted components that samples k losses per iteration and updates using an index from the lower empirical q-quantile. The authors prove linear convergence under standard convexity, requiring sample size to scale with the number of corruptions, plus a complementary small-sample probabilistic analysis. Experiments on polynomial regression, regularized logistic regression, and hinge loss show intermediate quantiles often outperform both standard SGD and min-k-loss SGD.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL · 5d agoAI research

General Quantification of Covariate and Concept Shifts

Paper proposes γ*-concept shifts via entropic optimal transport, deriving estimable generalization bounds unifying covariate and concept shift under distribution shift.

The authors show existing definitions of concept shift break when source and target supports mismatch and propose γ*-concept shifts grounded in entropic optimal transport. They derive a general error bound covering broad loss functions, label spaces and stochastic labeling, plus estimators with concentration guarantees. The resulting DataShifts algorithm quantifies distribution shifts and estimates the error bound in most applications, addressing learning bounds that were previously non-estimable from samples.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL · 6d agoAI research1

When Agents Slow Down: Understanding LLM Agents' Test-Time Strategies via Elo-per-token Analysis

Elo-per-token analysis shows LLM agents' marginal gains drop below independent sampling at scale; parallel sessions beat one long session.

The paper proposes Elo-per-token analysis, using a Bradley-Terry model to measure how agent performance scales with token budget on open-ended tasks with continuous scoring. Across four agents and four benchmarks with sessions up to 100M tokens, agents initially convert tokens to Elo faster than independent sampling but eventually slow below the linear-in-log-compute reference. The authors define a scaling inflection point and show that splitting 100M tokens across parallel sessions on FrontierCS Polyomino Packing gains +264 Elo over one long session and +355 over ten short sessions. Human contestants on shared AtCoder Heuristic Contest tasks improve superlinearly, indicating headroom over current agents.

Hugging Face daily papers · 3d agoAI research4· 2 reads

Domain-Specific Hallucination Detection in Large Language Models

A multi-signal pipeline detects LLM hallucinations, reaching F1 0.915 on HaluEval and cutting Qwen2.5-0.5B hallucination rates from 85.5% to 37.7% via DPO.

The paper presents a hallucination detection pipeline combining fine-tuned DeBERTa-v3 classification, Monte Carlo Dropout uncertainty, and temperature-scaled calibration. It achieves F1 0.915 and AUROC 0.977 on general-domain HaluEval tasks, with MC Dropout inference raising accuracy to 93.2%. Applying DPO to a Qwen2.5-0.5B generator reduces its hallucination rate from 85.5% to 37.7%, while cross-domain evaluation shows poor general-domain transfer to SciFact (F1 0.52) and PubMedBERT fine-tuning as the strongest adaptation (F1 0.63).

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL · 6d agoAI research1

Scalability Analysis of Distributed Kolmogorov-Arnold Network Training on High-Performance Computing Systems

An empirical study shows distributed Kolmogorov-Arnold Network training reaches 74.7% parallel efficiency at 8 A100 GPUs, with overheads driven by All-Reduce choices.

The study evaluates data-parallel Kolmogorov-Arnold Network (KAN) training on the FinisTerrae III supercomputer using up to 8 NVIDIA A100 GPUs across 4 nodes with PyTorch Distributed Data Parallel. Strong scaling yields 5.97x speedup and 74.7% parallel efficiency at 8 GPUs, comparable to conventional deep learning workloads, while communication overhead ranges from 1.3% to 6.1%, driven mainly by All-Reduce algorithm selection and inter-node latency rather than KAN's edge-wise gradient structure. Weak scaling shows an initial single-to-multi-GPU throughput drop followed by stability, and the parameter-to-memory ratio improves with model size even as training time scales unfavorably. The authors provide GPU topology and model-size deployment guidelines for KAN training.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL · 9d agoAI research1

ThinkPrior: Zero-Rollout Difficulty Priors for Cold-Start Prompt Selection in RLVR

ThinkPrior builds zero-rollout difficulty priors via an offline verifier-anchored pass, halving silent groups in RLVR and cutting wasted rollouts on Qwen2.5-Math-7B.

In GRPO-based RLVR, groups where all rollouts are correct or all are wrong yield zero advantages and consume about 39% of a run's rollouts under uniform sampling. ThinkPrior initializes a Beta posterior from an external anchor pass's verifier-scored pass rate, selecting prompts by expected learnability before any target-policy rollout, without changing the loss or optimizer. On Qwen2.5-Math-7B across sixteen seeds it more than halves early silent groups and cuts wasted rollouts through step 30 by nearly a fifth, with no detected final-accuracy difference. The ThinkPrior+DAPO composition reduces generated rollouts by 10.6% at an equal 3,840-rollout update budget.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL · 8d agoAI research1

Model-Aware Schedules Improve Generation via Fiberwise Optimal Transport

Researchers introduce model-aware diffusion schedules via fiberwise optimal transport, cutting flow-matching FID on CIFAR-10 by 38.6% at 16 function evaluations.

The paper proposes constructing diffusion and flow-matching sampling schedules from a fiberwise prediction risk defined via optimal transport, combined with coefficient-path kinetic action, yielding a closed-form time allocation. Across DDPM and flow-matching experiments spanning targets, datasets, and architectures, the schedules beat model-agnostic baselines, including a 38.6% relative FID reduction for flow matching on CIFAR-10 at 16 function evaluations. Normalized fiberwise-risk profiles from independently trained models align closely, suggesting empirical universality, and a frozen analytic allocation template retains most of the gains.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL · 6d agoAI research

Unlocking Lossless Speedups in LLMs via Discrete Diffusion

Uno pairs autoregressive LLMs with lightweight diffusion weights to draw multiple tokens in parallel, delivering up to 3x lossless speedup without a draft model.

The paper introduces diffusion-augmented LLMs: autoregressive weights trained with the standard next-token objective plus lightweight diffusion weights trained via a Diffusion Distillation phase to emit multiple tokens in parallel. Psi-Spec samplers enable lossless acceleration without the separate draft model required by speculative decoding. The 8B Uno model outperforms the 26B open DiffusionGemma and proprietary Mercury 2 on agentic tool use, coding, and long-context reasoning benchmarks, with up to 3x throughput gains over the base model at all evaluated batch sizes. Code and checkpoints are released publicly.

Hugging Face daily papers · 14d agoAI research

Mask Forcing: Improving Autoregressive Video Diffusion Distillation via Dual-Noise Masking Rollout

Researchers propose Mask Forcing, a dual-noise masking rollout that mitigates mode collapse in autoregressive video diffusion distillation.

The paper targets over-saturation and over-smoothing in autoregressive video diffusion models distilled via Distribution Matching Distillation, attributed to reverse-KL mode-seeking behavior. Mask Forcing perturbs the student self-rollout with random masks along spatial and temporal axes, injecting cleaner tokens that act as denoising guidance for noisier tokens. Experiments show improved visual quality across multiple distillation methods without using real video data or extra post-training stages.

Hugging Face daily papers · 9d agoAI research

Curriculum Learning as Transport: Understanding Curricula with Wasserstein Geodesics

Researchers model curriculum learning as Wasserstein transport over difficulty distributions, finding curriculum benefits are strongly task- and budget-dependent with no dominant strategy.

The framework represents curricula as trajectories of training distributions over discrete difficulty levels, decoupling ordering, matched exposure, endpoint smoothness, and pacing. Across a calibrated suite of 12 tasks and 33 difficulty axes under fixed training budgets, no single strategy dominates, though easy-to-hard ordering improves hard-level performance relative to exposure-matched static sampling. Endpoint smoothness and pacing substantially affect where along the difficulty spectrum a curriculum is effective, and the transport view supports extensions to learned pacing and structured difficulty spaces.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL · 8d agoAI research1

Understanding the Impact of Model Pruning on Long-Tail Forgetting and Explanation Reliability in Medical Imaging

Systematic study finds model pruning causes frequency-dependent long-tail forgetting in medical imaging and that gradient-informed methods best preserve explanations.

Across two long-tailed medical imaging datasets, two CNN architectures, four pruning methods, and sparsity up to 95%, the study measures predictive performance, explanation stability, and faithfulness. Rare classes degrade earlier and more severely than frequent ones, while explanation reliability depends mainly on the pruning strategy, with gradient-informed methods degrading least. Mechanistic analysis ties explanation collapse to loss of class-discriminative gradients rather than vanishing feature activations, recommending class- and explanation-aware evaluation of compression.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL · 9d agoAI research

K-Bench: a clinically calibrated benchmark for evaluating large language models in high-risk mental health conversations

Clinician-calibrated K-Bench evaluates 125 LLM configurations on 200 high-risk mental health vignettes, exposing wide variation in suicide and violence risk handling.

K-Bench is a clinician-calibrated, protected benchmark evaluating 125 model configurations from 33 base models across 14 providers on 200 multi-turn vignettes covering suicide, self-harm, domestic violence, substance misuse and no-risk presentations. A frozen GPT-4o judge achieved 94.2% exact agreement with clinician consensus across 6,751 eligible comparisons from 151 clinician-rated transcripts. Leading models combined supportive conversation with combined-risk scores above 95, while risk exploration varied substantially among weaker configurations; therapeutic prompting helped weaker models and elevated reasoning produced no average improvement. A continuously updated public leaderboard is hosted at k-bench.ai with protected test materials.

Thin-shell stability of Gaussian cooling: logconcave sampling with sesteric complexity from a cold start

Thin-shell stability proof along the Gaussian cooling path improves cold-start logconcave sampling complexity to near n^2.5 from n^2.75.

The authors prove that logconcave probability measures along the Gaussian cooling path have thin-shell stability, generalizing the thin-shell theorem. This yields improved complexity for sampling an arbitrary logconcave distribution from a cold start. For (near-)isotropic logconcave distributions the complexity is nearly n^2.5, improving the previous n^2.75 bound and matching the abstract Speedy walk.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL · 2d agoAI research

DataFlex-RL: An Evaluation Platform for RLVR Data Policies

DataFlex-RL benchmark of 13 RLVR data policies on Qwen2.5-7B finds none reproducibly beats uniform sampling under matched GRPO training.

DataFlex-RL is an evaluation platform comparing rollout-selection, reweighting, and mixture data policies for RLVR under a common GRPO recipe. Across 13 configurations and 12 matched seeds with Qwen2.5-7B-Base on 12 math, logic, and science benchmarks, uniform GRPO improved domain-balanced accuracy by 7.76 points, but no alternative policy achieved a statistically significant improvement. A corrected 12-seed Llama-3.1-8B-Base extension found no consistent winner, and math-heavy evaluation summaries were negatively correlated (-0.33) with domain-balanced summaries.

Hugging Face daily papers · 12d agoAI research

Feyospace-v1: How the Cyber Mercury Seven Trained Frontier Cyber Models

A seven-person independent team trained open-weight agentic cyber models via a data-centric post-training framework, ranking 10th on CyberGym and first at comparable scale.

The paper presents Feyospace-v1, a data-centric post-training framework combining five systems: Choulea (hidden reasoning analysis), SkyReal (teacher-sampling cost reduction), Hongzwang (bypassing teacher API restrictions), PSBreakup (restoring capabilities weakened by model merging), and Kreator (converting expert interventions into trainable reasoning). The data engine builds resettable coding, vulnerability, CTF, kernel-history, full-exploit, firmware, and device-backed environments, retaining only execution-verified and evidence-audited trajectories, yielding 164,269 trajectories for long-context supervised fine-tuning. Three checkpoints improve over their starting models by an average of 23.76% on the full CyberGym suite and 10.49% across pooled CTF suites. As of September 1, 2026, Feyospace-s1 achieves a 63.24% verified success rate, ranks 10th on the official CyberGym leaderboard, and all three checkpoints rank 1st among models at comparable parameter scales.

Hugging Face daily papers · 9d agoAI research

StochBench: A Domain-Specific Benchmark for Stochastic Processes in Lean

StochBench introduces 450 graduate-level stochastic-processes problems in Lean 4; an Opus 4.8-based agent proved 34.9% under a 15-minute limit.

StochBench is a Lean 4 benchmark of 450 graduate stochastic-processes problems, each paired with its natural-language source, covering Markov chains, renewal processes, martingales, Brownian motion, stochastic calculus, weak convergence, and Poisson and continuous-time Markov processes. The benchmark addresses field-specific applied mathematics underrepresented in Mathlib, unlike competition-math-dominated suites such as IMO and Putnam collections. An Opus 4.8-based agent achieved a 34.9% proof rate (157/450) under a 15-minute per-problem limit, showing the benchmark remains challenging for advanced provers.

Hugging Face daily papers · 9d agoAI research

OpenAI researcher allegedly pressured mathematician to drop Anthropic co-author from math breakthrough paper

OpenAI researcher Sébastien Bubeck allegedly pressured mathematician Tristan Buckmaster to drop his Anthropic co-author from an AI-assisted Navier-Stokes breakthrough paper.

Mathematician Tristan Buckmaster says OpenAI, after learning of his and Levent Alpöge's AI-assisted progress on the Navier-Stokes equations, pressed him to drop his Anthropic-employed co-author and dictated how any results would be announced. He says Sébastien Bubeck claimed an internal OpenAI model had produced a roughly 100-page proof for Navier-Stokes with forcing and allegedly told him 'Why would you ruin your career?' when he threatened to go public. Buckmaster published a public statement detailing the exchanges; OpenAI has not yet responded. The pair had worked with models including Claude and OpenAI Codex running GPT-5.6 Sol on the Clay Millennium Problem, which carries a $1 million prize.

The Decoder · 8d agoAI industry1

Higher-order pruning of experts in mixture-of-experts language modelsnew

New HOPE method uses second-order objectives to prune Mixture-of-Experts LLMs, outperforming REAP at 50% pruning on models up to 122B parameters.

Researchers derive HOPE (Higher-Order Pruning of Experts), a second-order pruning objective for Mixture-of-Experts language models that provably minimizes an upper bound on pruning error by modeling cooperative expert interactions. They show REAP, a state-of-the-art first-order method, is a special case of HOPE with interaction terms ignored. Across three frontier MoE models up to 122B parameters, two calibration sets, and benchmarks covering math, instruction following, coding, and agentic tasks, HOPE achieves the best average rank (1.58 of 5 at 50% pruning versus 2.42 for REAP), with gains up to +6.1% on agentic coding.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL · 11h agoAI research

A Chosen Future Can Still Be Rewritten: Causal Writability in Video Models

Study shows video models often learn correct physics but fail to use it; low-dimensional 'causal writability' edits can restore correct motion.

The paper demonstrates 'causal writability' in video generation models: physically correct motion remains available inside the model even when the model outputs incorrect motion. In a red/blue mass oscillation setup, a low-dimensional edit predicted from simple physical variables restores correct fast motion, with a sharp depth boundary marking commitment. Early causal writability predicts which training errors later get corrected, and both writability and closure reproduce in a pretrained 1.3B video model.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL · 2d agoAI research