Search: “stochastic-processes”

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StochBench: A Domain-Specific Benchmark for Stochastic Processes in Lean

StochBench introduces 450 graduate-level stochastic-processes problems in Lean 4; an Opus 4.8-based agent proved 34.9% under a 15-minute limit.

StochBench is a Lean 4 benchmark of 450 graduate stochastic-processes problems, each paired with its natural-language source, covering Markov chains, renewal processes, martingales, Brownian motion, stochastic calculus, weak convergence, and Poisson and continuous-time Markov processes. The benchmark addresses field-specific applied mathematics underrepresented in Mathlib, unlike competition-math-dominated suites such as IMO and Putnam collections. An Opus 4.8-based agent achieved a 34.9% proof rate (157/450) under a 15-minute per-problem limit, showing the benchmark remains challenging for advanced provers.

Hugging Face daily papers·Sep 7, 20:00 UTC · 9d agoAI research

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PhysStream: Streaming Physics-Grounded Video Generation with Structured Scene Memory and Fine-Grained Motion Control

PhysStream autoregressive video model enables physics-grounded mid-generation motion control, cutting trajectory error 12% and FVMD 33% versus strongest baselines.

PhysStream is an autoregressive image-to-video model that incorporates structured scene memory—positional maps and object tracking maps derived online from previously generated frames—and supports fine-grained motion control via sparse velocity-increment signals encoding physical quantities. Training proceeds in two stages: a bidirectional model finetuned with motion-control conditioning, then a causal autoregressive model with scene memory. It reduces motion distribution distance (FVMD) by 33% and trajectory error by 12% over the strongest baselines, and human evaluators prefer it in over 85% of in-the-wild comparisons.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 15, 17:55 UTC · 1d agoAI research 2 sources1

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Diffusion Models and Concept Formation

Paper argues diffusion models implicitly form Cobweb-like concept hierarchies, with a basic level emerging at intermediate noise levels.

The authors draw a formal correspondence between diffusion models and Cobweb, a classic incremental concept-hierarchy learner, noting both are hierarchical Bayesian density models with Gaussian prototypes. Modes of the diffusion model's noisy marginals form a hierarchy whose basic level sits at intermediate noise, where class identity commits. The correspondence is tested on MNIST and Fashion-MNIST via mode-finding. Diffusion is reframed as a cognitive model of concept formation.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 11, 16:43 UTC · 5d agoAI research

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Reduced-Space Multi-Fidelity Bayesian Optimization of Process Simulation Models

RS-MFBO couples global sensitivity analysis with fidelity-augmented Gaussian processes to slash costly high-fidelity simulation runs in industrial flowsheet optimization.

The paper presents RS-MFBO, a reduced-space multi-fidelity Bayesian optimization framework for high-dimensional, expensive black-box functions. It integrates Global Sensitivity Analysis for dimensionality reduction with a fidelity-augmented Gaussian process and a cost-aware acquisition strategy featuring cooldown and promotion mechanisms. Validation on a plasmid DNA bioprocess (SuperPro Designer) and a green fuel synthesis plant (Aspen HYSYS) shows substantial reductions in high-fidelity evaluations while remaining competitive with single-fidelity baselines.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 15, 16:46 UTC · 1d agoAI research

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Bridging Control, Inference, Transport, and Thermodynamics: From Theory to Applications in Learning

Review connects control theory, optimal transport, probabilistic inference, thermodynamics, and machine learning via free-energy optimization under constraints.

The review unifies five fields: control theory, optimal transport, probabilistic inference, non-equilibrium thermodynamics, and machine learning. The common conceptual thread is optimization of free-energy-like functionals under dynamical or statistical constraints. Selected applications are presented in reinforcement learning, variational inference, and generative modeling. The tutorial-style text assumes no prior familiarity and begins from physics principles.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 14, 17:16 UTC · 2d agoAI research

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Likelihood-free inference with nuisance parameters through normalizing flows

Researchers decompose normalizing flows to derive near-pivotal statistics for likelihood-free inference with nuisance parameters, recovering the t-test and beating Welch limits.

A new paper decomposes neural-network normalizing flows to uncover pivotal statistics in the presence of nuisance parameters using only a sample generator from the distribution of interest. The statistic is near-pivotal in the sense of minimum average KL-divergence of its p-values and can incorporate prior knowledge of group invariances such as translation and scale. Experiments show it recovers the one-sample t-test almost exactly, outperforms the Welch test on worst-case size over a constrained variance-ratio range, and delivers higher power and much faster runtime than profile likelihood-ratio techniques on small-to-moderate samples.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 9, 17:58 UTC · 7d agoAI research

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General Quantification of Covariate and Concept Shifts

Paper proposes γ*-concept shifts via entropic optimal transport, deriving estimable generalization bounds unifying covariate and concept shift under distribution shift.

The authors show existing definitions of concept shift break when source and target supports mismatch and propose γ*-concept shifts grounded in entropic optimal transport. They derive a general error bound covering broad loss functions, label spaces and stochastic labeling, plus estimators with concentration guarantees. The resulting DataShifts algorithm quantifies distribution shifts and estimates the error bound in most applications, addressing learning bounds that were previously non-estimable from samples.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 10, 17:57 UTC · 6d agoAI research1

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Model-Aware Schedules Improve Generation via Fiberwise Optimal Transport

Researchers introduce model-aware diffusion schedules via fiberwise optimal transport, cutting flow-matching FID on CIFAR-10 by 38.6% at 16 function evaluations.

The paper proposes constructing diffusion and flow-matching sampling schedules from a fiberwise prediction risk defined via optimal transport, combined with coefficient-path kinetic action, yielding a closed-form time allocation. Across DDPM and flow-matching experiments spanning targets, datasets, and architectures, the schedules beat model-agnostic baselines, including a 38.6% relative FID reduction for flow matching on CIFAR-10 at 16 function evaluations. Normalized fiberwise-risk profiles from independently trained models align closely, suggesting empirical universality, and a frozen analytic allocation template retains most of the gains.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 10, 17:30 UTC · 6d agoAI research

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The Price of Sparsity: Sufficient Conditions for Sparse Recovery using Sparse and Sparsified Measurements

Researchers derive sufficient sample-size conditions for recovering sparse binary signals from sparse Gaussian measurements, quantifying an information-theoretic threshold of order slog(p/s)/log(ds/p).

The paper studies support recovery of sparse binary signals from noisy linear measurements. For sparse Gaussian designs, the authors identify sufficient minimal sample sizes for maximum-likelihood recovery in the high-SNR regime d*s/p -> infinity, yielding an information-theoretic threshold of order slog(p/s)/log(ds/p) that makes the price of measurement sparsity explicit. They also show a regime where the sample-complexity loss from sparsity is only logarithmic while computational gains are nearly linear, and prove that for independently sparsified dense Gaussian designs a sample size of order p/ψ² suffices for support recovery at any fixed error level.

Hugging Face daily papers·Sep 7, 20:00 UTC · 9d agoAI research

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A Chosen Future Can Still Be Rewritten: Causal Writability in Video Models

Study shows video models often learn correct physics but fail to use it; low-dimensional 'causal writability' edits can restore correct motion.

The paper demonstrates 'causal writability' in video generation models: physically correct motion remains available inside the model even when the model outputs incorrect motion. In a red/blue mass oscillation setup, a low-dimensional edit predicted from simple physical variables restores correct fast motion, with a sharp depth boundary marking commitment. Early causal writability predicts which training errors later get corrected, and both writability and closure reproduce in a pretrained 1.3B video model.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 14, 17:58 UTC · 2d agoAI research

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Thin-shell stability of Gaussian cooling: logconcave sampling with sesteric complexity from a cold start

Thin-shell stability proof along the Gaussian cooling path improves cold-start logconcave sampling complexity to near n^2.5 from n^2.75.

The authors prove that logconcave probability measures along the Gaussian cooling path have thin-shell stability, generalizing the thin-shell theorem. This yields improved complexity for sampling an arbitrary logconcave distribution from a cold start. For (near-)isotropic logconcave distributions the complexity is nearly n^2.5, improving the previous n^2.75 bound and matching the abstract Speedy walk.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 14, 17:10 UTC · 2d agoAI research

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Studying Without a Syllabus: Task-Agnostic Environment Preprocessing

Paper formalizes task-agnostic environment preprocessing, where agents study unfamiliar environments under a budget to build reusable artifacts for a frozen solver.

The paper formalizes task-agnostic environment preprocessing, where a studying system explores an environment under a budget and produces artifacts like indices, scripts, or procedural guidance for a frozen solver, without task examples or evaluation feedback. The authors compare unaided and archive-equipped meta-agents against fixed synthetic-practice and corpus-processing methods across six heterogeneous benchmarks. A meta-agent variant achieves the highest Avg@3 reward on five benchmarks, while fixed corpus processing remains best on the largest corpus benchmark. Studied artifacts reduce the test-time sampling needed to reach a given score, shifting computation from repeated test-time attempts to a pre-task study phase.

Hugging Face daily papers·Sep 8, 20:00 UTC · 8d agoAI research

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Mask Forcing: Improving Autoregressive Video Diffusion Distillation via Dual-Noise Masking Rollout

Researchers propose Mask Forcing, a dual-noise masking rollout that mitigates mode collapse in autoregressive video diffusion distillation.

The paper targets over-saturation and over-smoothing in autoregressive video diffusion models distilled via Distribution Matching Distillation, attributed to reverse-KL mode-seeking behavior. Mask Forcing perturbs the student self-rollout with random masks along spatial and temporal axes, injecting cleaner tokens that act as denoising guidance for noisier tokens. Experiments show improved visual quality across multiple distillation methods without using real video data or extra post-training stages.

Hugging Face daily papers·Sep 7, 20:00 UTC · 9d agoAI research

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Quantile-based Loss Filtering for Outlier-Robust Stochastic Gradient Descent

Quantile-k-Loss SGD filters corrupted component losses by quantile sampling, proving linear convergence while outperforming standard and min-k-loss SGD.

The paper proposes Quantile-k-Loss SGD (Q(k)L-SGD), a loss-filtering framework for finite-sum optimization with corrupted components that samples k losses per iteration and updates using an index from the lower empirical q-quantile. The authors prove linear convergence under standard convexity, requiring sample size to scale with the number of corruptions, plus a complementary small-sample probabilistic analysis. Experiments on polynomial regression, regularized logistic regression, and hinge loss show intermediate quantiles often outperform both standard SGD and min-k-loss SGD.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 11, 16:38 UTC · 5d agoAI research

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Toward an Empirical Probabilistic Risk Manifestation Model of Organizational Cybersecurity in SMEs

Empirical study of 22 SME security assessments builds a probabilistic risk model and shows assessments can be cut 24-45% while retaining most critical findings.

Researchers analyzed 281 validated security findings from 22 real-world SME cybersecurity assessments conducted over two years via a pro bono university clinic. They derived an empirical Risk Manifestation Model linking eight organizational security functions to two exposure conditions, five attack mechanisms, and six outcome categories, using probability propagation to identify dominant risk pathways. The dominant pathway runs from asset exposure to credential compromise to unauthorized access, stable under leave-one-organization-out analysis. Retaining six functions reduces assessment burden by 24% while preserving 97% of critical findings; five functions cut burden 45% while preserving 89% of critical findings.

arXiv cs.CR·Sep 14, 01:15 UTC · 2d agoResearch

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Semigroup-JEPA: Latent Dynamics Consistency for Zero-Shot Physics Generalization

SG-JEPA world model conditions latent prediction on physical parameters, halving open-loop prediction error versus DINO-WM and boosting robotic control success.

SG-JEPA extends the LeWorldModel JEPA framework by supplying the governing physics parameter to the temporal model via action-conditioning and jointly training an encoder and predictor through autoregressive latent rollout. On out-of-distribution gravitational-field tasks it reduces open-loop prediction error by up to 2x versus DINO-WM on 2D datasets and increases 3D robotic control success rate up to 2.5x using independently trained diffusion policies. A linear feature analysis attributes most of the gain to the encoder learning features that the predictor can carry forward through rollout.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 9, 17:08 UTC · 7d agoAI research

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DRIFT: Removing Diffusion Watermarks by Deflecting the Generative Trajectory

Introduces DRIFT, a black-box attack removing diffusion watermarks by deflecting generative trajectories, achieving 98-100% success across nine watermarking schemes.

Researchers propose DRIFT, a black-box watermark removal attack combining partial forward diffusion with stochastic reverse resampling to break trajectory-dependent verification. The paper derives information-theoretic and Wasserstein source-dependence bounds and shows the first verifier-rejected rung is least distorted among rejected rungs. Across nine watermarks spanning three paradigms, DRIFT achieves 98-100% attack success with the best image quality among compared attacks, without secret keys, verifier internals, or per-image gradient optimization.

arXiv cs.CR·Sep 8, 03:54 UTC · 8d agoResearch

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Generative Marketing Mix Modeling: A Causal Inference Framework Linking GEO and GEM to Business Impact

Paper proposes Generative Marketing Mix Modeling to causally estimate Generative Engine Optimization and Marketing effects on business outcomes.

The authors develop GMMM, a causal inference framework for measuring how often users see and notice a firm's name in generated answers, which standard marketing data ignore. For GEO it combines repeated generated answers with question counts, shares of generative-system usage and notice probabilities; for GEM it uses sponsored placement records with notice probabilities. The framework compares expected business responses under alternative treatment sequences, establishes identification conditions, and is evaluated on simulated product-recommendation answers in English and Japanese.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 10, 17:57 UTC · 6d agoAI research

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Quenched Ensemble Sampling

Quenched Ensemble Sampling generalizes nested sampling's hard energy constraint to repulsive potentials, traversing first-order phase transitions where tempering fails.

Quenched Ensemble Sampling generalizes nested sampling's hard energy constraint into a family of repulsive potentials at the energy boundary, preserving monotone energy descent while making the constrained target amenable to scalable gradient-based kernels. On synthetic phase-transition models it estimates marginal likelihood and draws posterior samples across first-order transitions where popular alternatives such as tempering fail. Applications include marginal likelihood estimation for Bayesian neural network architecture comparison and partition function estimation in a high-dimensional continuous lattice field theory.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 14, 17:16 UTC · 2d agoAI research1

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Unlocking Lossless Speedups in LLMs via Discrete Diffusion

Uno pairs autoregressive LLMs with lightweight diffusion weights to draw multiple tokens in parallel, delivering up to 3x lossless speedup without a draft model.

The paper introduces diffusion-augmented LLMs: autoregressive weights trained with the standard next-token objective plus lightweight diffusion weights trained via a Diffusion Distillation phase to emit multiple tokens in parallel. Psi-Spec samplers enable lossless acceleration without the separate draft model required by speculative decoding. The 8B Uno model outperforms the 26B open DiffusionGemma and proprietary Mercury 2 on agentic tool use, coding, and long-context reasoning benchmarks, with up to 3x throughput gains over the base model at all evaluated batch sizes. Code and checkpoints are released publicly.

Hugging Face daily papers·Sep 2, 20:00 UTC · 14d agoAI research

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Transfer Learning for Evolving Domains

TrED formalizes transfer learning for domains whose data availability evolves over time, arguing classical settings are regimes along one trajectory, and remains unsolved.

The paper introduces Transfer Learning for Evolving Domains (TrED), formalizing transfer learning as a trajectory problem where target data and labels are progressively collected. TrED is specified by a data availability process fixed by the environment, a freely chosen learning protocol, and an evaluation criterion scoring the whole trajectory of models. Classical settings like domain generalization, domain adaptation, and multi-domain learning are recovered as regimes within this framework. The authors survey the literature and find most methods are tailored to a single regime, leaving TrED a well-posed open problem.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 11, 16:37 UTC · 5d agoAI research

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Bridging the Gap Between Homogeneous and Heterogeneous Asynchronous Optimization Is Surprisingly Difficult

Lower bounds show heterogeneous asynchronous optimization cannot match homogeneous rates under standard similarity assumptions; strong interpolation plus local PL condition closes the gap.

The paper examines whether pessimistic optimal time complexities for asynchronous distributed optimization with heterogeneous workers (different data distributions) can be overcome. It proves improvement is provably impossible under widely used first- and second-order similarity assumptions for any randomized algorithm, and that the weak interpolation assumption alone is also insufficient. Combining strong interpolation with the local Polyak-Lojasiewicz condition yields a new time complexity bound matching the best-known homogeneous dependence on worker computation times without requiring identical data distributions.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 15, 17:24 UTC · 1d agoAI research

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Bag of Tricks or Bag of Myths? Reducing Modeling Complexity with Task Knowledge in Explainable Suicide Risk Assessment

Researchers audit 31 NLP techniques for clinician-annotated suicide risk prediction, finding only 5 of 31 comparisons yield reliable gains.

A study of 1,635 clinician-annotated social media posts ran roughly 300 controlled experiments across 7 methodological families, auditing techniques such as model scaling, synthetic data, ensembling, and threshold tuning under severe class imbalance. The proposed system reformulates risk factor prediction as entailment between posts and codebook definitions, using architecturally diverse ensembles with class-balanced training and deployment-consistent calibration. It scores 0.8203 for risk, 0.7953 for evidence, and 0.7045 macro-F1 for factors, ranking third among 53 teams.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 7, 17:14 UTC · 9d agoAI research

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Understanding the Impact of Model Pruning on Long-Tail Forgetting and Explanation Reliability in Medical Imaging

Systematic study finds model pruning causes frequency-dependent long-tail forgetting in medical imaging and that gradient-informed methods best preserve explanations.

Across two long-tailed medical imaging datasets, two CNN architectures, four pruning methods, and sparsity up to 95%, the study measures predictive performance, explanation stability, and faithfulness. Rare classes degrade earlier and more severely than frequent ones, while explanation reliability depends mainly on the pruning strategy, with gradient-informed methods degrading least. Mechanistic analysis ties explanation collapse to loss of class-discriminative gradients rather than vanishing feature activations, recommending class- and explanation-aware evaluation of compression.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 7, 17:44 UTC · 9d agoAI research

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MasterControl Seventeen Every Time

Governed enterprise analytics study shows deterministic policy execution matched 110/110 answer-and-evidence contracts while runtime agent planning matched none.

The paper studies a governed approach where a language model interprets the question while deterministic policy selects and runs a pre-approved analytical program returning results and evidence. Across 440 runs, three 8B models generated SQL and selected tools at runtime, while Qwen3-8B only interpreted intent and policy executed the approved program. None of 330 runtime-planning episodes satisfied the full answer-and-evidence contract, whereas the policy-executed analyzer matched 110 of 110. The authors note this is configuration-specific and expressiveness is preserved via relational operations, aggregation, comparison, windows, ranking, and similarity with replayable results.

Hugging Face daily papers·Sep 1, 20:00 UTC · 15d agoAI research

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Multi-Task Learning for Sparsely-Labeled Time Series: A Case Study on Cold-Hardiness Modeling

Multi-task RNN architectures pooling sparse cultivar data improve grape cold-hardiness and budbreak prediction over single-task and scientific baselines.

Researchers apply recurrent neural networks to daily grape cold-hardiness prediction from weather time series, where per-cultivar labels are temporally sparse and limited. They design multiple multi-task learning architectures that treat cultivars as tasks and evaluate them in both MTL and transfer learning settings. Certain architectures consistently outperform single-task learning and state-of-the-art scientific models, and a single MTL model jointly learning cold hardiness and budbreak improves accuracy on both tasks.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 8, 17:17 UTC · 8d agoAI research

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Algorithmic stability via ensembling

Theoretical work derives a general framework quantifying stability guarantees for averaging-based ensembles under arbitrary data perturbations via covariance operator norms.

The paper develops a framework for quantifying algorithmic stability of ensembling strategies defined via averaging, for varied types of data perturbation. The main result bounds the stability of the ensembled algorithm in terms of the norm of a covariance operator describing the ensembling process. The framework yields interpretable insights across practical perturbation examples and provides sharper guarantees than those derived from differential privacy considerations.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 9, 16:39 UTC · 7d agoAI research

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LongAgent: History-Guided Agentic Search for Longitudinal Outcome Prediction

LongAgent autonomously searches variable sets and temporal windows to predict longitudinal medical outcomes, beating the strongest non-agent baseline on synthetic data.

The paper proposes LongAgent, an agent-based method that searches over combinations of variable sets, temporal windows and aggregation functions for outcome prediction on heterogeneous medical longitudinal data. It uses a history memory of previous searches and numerical evidence to guide exploration. On synthetic data it achieves mean RMSE 1.7376, improving over the best non-agent baseline by 0.0151 (95% CI [0.0045, 0.0260]; p=0.0273), and performs comparably to the best baseline on a real clinical dataset.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 14, 16:51 UTC · 2d agoAI research

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OracleZoom: On-Policy Self-Distillation Inspired Reference-Constrained Recursive Image Super Resolution

OracleZoom enables recursive extreme-scale image super-resolution via reference-constrained on-policy distillation, reducing hallucinations at deep zoom scales.

OracleZoom tackles recursive super-resolution, where repeated feeding of predictions back into the same model leaves deeper-scale outputs unsupervised as required source resolution grows geometrically. The framework trains on its own trajectory while carrying the last ground-truth evidence beyond the supervision boundary, combining direct and cross-scale supervision, a no-reference quality objective, a KL-constrained pretrained latent prior, and EMA consistency. Across seven datasets it achieves state-of-the-art SR quality across zoom scales, averaging 0.713 CLIPIQA with larger gains at deeper scales and significantly reduced hallucinations. Code, data, and models are publicly released.

Hugging Face daily papers·Sep 5, 20:00 UTC · 11d agoAI research

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