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ThreatsDay Bulletin: Claude Security Plugin, Azure Priv-Esc, Kali365 MFA Bypass, FIFA Scams +15 More
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Dependency-Aware ROM/CBD Correctness Bounds for ML-KEM-768 at the Heuristic Failure Scale
Researchers certify a dependency-preserving upper bound of 2^-164.81 on honest decapsulation failure for ML-KEM-768 within an explicit ROM/CBD abstraction.
The paper models ML-KEM-768's domain-separated public-matrix streams as independent uniform ring elements and secret polynomials as CBD2 primitives, explicitly not claiming an information-theoretic result about the fixed SHAKE instantiation in FIPS 203. It preserves dependencies from the public matrix and both ciphertext-compression terms, using a graph-coupled reference, a proper-ideal bivariate Fourier transport, and a 256-coordinate union bound. The certified bound is Pr[K' != K] <= 2^-164.81, with the exponent 164.8107162... exceeding the 164.81 threshold by only about 0.0007162 bits; 164.82 is not certified. The bound applies to messages fixed independently of the randomness under honest encryption and decapsulation, and is not an exact DFR, a fixed-SHAKE equivalence, or a new IND-CCA reduction.
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Post-quantum cryptography adoption and the national security implications
Opinion analysis argues quantum computing favors nation-state espionage, leaving lagging post-quantum adoption at critical infrastructure exposed to harvest-now-decrypt-later attacks.
A CSO Online opinion piece argues that the extreme cost and infrastructure requirements of quantum computers will concentrate cryptographically relevant quantum capability among nation-states and a few corporations, favoring espionage and economic espionage over criminal monetization. It highlights harvest-now-decrypt-later risk to long-lived secrets, expert warnings such as Filippo Valsorda's, and diverging CRQC timelines with Google suggesting possibly 2029. The piece predicts governments, banks, and targeted sectors will adopt PQC first while utilities, small hospitals, and local government lag, widening exploitable gaps in critical infrastructure reminiscent of Salt Typhoon-style access.
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