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Bridging the Confidence Gap: Temperature Scaling for Calibrating Test-Time Prompt Tuning

CoTS temperature scaling cuts test-time prompt tuning's expected calibration error from 11.90% to 5.38% on ImageNet variants while raising accuracy.

The paper proposes CoTS, a post-hoc calibration method that applies temperature scaling to minimize the confidence gap between test-time-adapted and zero-shot predictions. A weak-strong ensemble variant, E-CoTS, further exploits multiple test-time augmentations to boost accuracy while maintaining calibration. E-CoTS reduces average expected calibration error from 11.90% to 5.38% on ImageNet variants while increasing accuracy from 60.74% to 62.95%.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL · 1d agoAI research

Coupled Calibration and Learning: Mitigating Teacher Bias in LLM Distillation without Target-Domain Reward Feedback

CCL couples teacher calibration with student updates via token-level branching, provably removing teacher bias in LLM distillation.

The paper proposes Coupled Calibration and Learning (CCL), an LLM distillation algorithm that alternates teacher calibration using source-question reward feedback with student training on target questions under covariate shift. Each iteration calibrates the teacher on source feedback, trains the student on target questions, and lets the updated student inform subsequent calibration. The authors prove the student's expected KL divergence to the oracle student converges to zero at a polynomial rate, and show regularized direct matching error can remain bounded away from zero.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL · 1d agoAI research1

A Ranking Approach for Measuring Calibration

Researchers propose rankECE, a ranking-based calibration error measure with theoretical guarantees that outperforms binned ECE approximations.

The paper introduces rankECE, an alternative to Expected Calibration Error (ECE) that measures miscalibration by comparing points with neighboring predicted-probability values. It addresses the impossibility of estimating ECE with guaranteed accuracy in assumption-free settings. Theoretical guarantees and empirical results establish rankECE as a better proxy for ECE than the binned approximations most commonly used in practice.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL · 5d agoAI research1

SyncWorld: Visual Calibration Enables World Models as Zero-Shot Simulators

SyncWorld is an action-conditioned world model acting as a zero-shot robotics simulator across unseen environments via visual calibration.

Researchers propose SyncWorld, an action-conditioned world model that simulates robot action outcomes in unseen environments without additional training. It uses a visual calibration episode of paired frames and actions to establish the setup-specific Action-Visual Mapping in context. Experiments show accurate simulation of action outcomes in novel settings and that simulated rollouts enable test-time policy improvement without training.

Hugging Face daily papers · 9d agoAI research

ENCP: Episode-Normalized Conformal Prediction for Vision-and-Language Navigation

ENCP calibrates conformal prediction per navigation episode, giving step-level coverage guarantees for vision-language navigation agents despite within-episode dependence.

Episode-Normalized Conformal Prediction (ENCP) rescales a nonconformity score by a VLN policy's residual confidence and calibrates one maximum score per episode, preserving step-level coverage of at least 1−α despite dependence among steps within an episode. Across four VLN policies and three nonconformity scores on R2R and REVERIE, ENCP meets all reported empirical step-coverage targets in seen-to-unseen evaluation. The model-agnostic uncertainty estimates can signal when an agent should defer to a stronger predictor or human assistance.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL · 1d agoAI research

Confidence Comes from Experience: Experiential Confidence Estimation from Reasoning to Agents

XConf estimates LLM confidence from accumulated past episodes, improving calibration and discrimination across nine benchmarks at one-tenth self-consistency cost.

Researchers propose XConf, an experiential confidence estimator that augments current inference with a stored record of the model's graded past episodes, including reflections, stated confidence, outcomes, and lessons. A Recall stage retrieves episodes from similar tasks with similar stated confidence and reads off historical success rates, while a Reflect stage prompts the model to name recurring failure modes and restate confidence. Across nine benchmarks in reasoning, coding, multimodal QA, and interactive agents, and four models from three families, XConf beats or matches ten-sample self-consistency in AUROC on 23 of 24 comparisons with much lower ECE, at a tenth of the generation cost. For selective prediction, abstaining on the 10% least-confident episodes raises delivered success rate by up to 8.7 points on agent tasks.

Hugging Face daily papers · 2d agoAI research

Building a Production Greek-English Speech Recognizer

Engineering report details Sophea, a production Greek-English ASR reaching 4.26% WER on public English sets via ROVER ensemble and data-pipeline calibration.

Across 23 training iterations, two architectures, and nine production gates, no single data composition passed all gates; a three-model ROVER ensemble reached 9 of 9 gates and cut overlapping-speech WER from 53.35% to 37.87%. Calibrating an audio-quality filter against in-domain anchors reduced discarded scored Greek audio from 98.7% to 10.6%, and a pre-registered ablation traced a hallucination defect to one training-data package. The sophea/asr-k1 preview arbiter lists 4.26% average WER on eight public English test sets and 25.88% WER on live Greek noisy traffic; no weights or training data are released.

Hugging Face daily papers · 6d agoAI research

Understanding Operator Attitudes Toward AI-Supported Decision Making in Maritime Operations

A survey of maritime professionals finds positive but scenario-sensitive attitudes toward AI collision-avoidance assistants, urging design for calibrated reliance.

The study surveyed maritime stakeholders on attitudes toward AI-supported collision-avoidance assistants for Maritime Autonomous Surface Ships, measuring technology anxiety, trust in automation, and explanation quality with established questionnaires plus thematic analysis of open responses. Results show generally positive disposition, no clear age-related openness differences, stable trust across scenarios, and multidimensional, scenario-sensitive explanation ratings. Participants valued decision support and situation awareness but worried about AI reliability, over-reliance, and skill loss; the authors recommend designing for calibrated reliance with domain experts in the loop rather than maximizing automation or trust.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL · 6d agoAI research1

Train Smarter, Not Harder: Switching Signal-Guided Training in Active Learning

HybridAL is an active-learning training schedule that switches from retraining to fine-tuning on stabilization signals, saving up to 49% time.

Researchers find that choosing between retraining from scratch and fine-tuning is an exploitable decision variable in active learning: retraining helps in early rounds while fine-tuning is safer once the model trajectory stabilizes. HybridAL monitors an online stabilization signal using spectral exponent change and accuracy change, switching from retraining to fine-tuning after sustained stabilization. Across three encoder backbones and six text-classification tasks with five seeds each, HybridAL keeps endpoint macro-F1 non-inferior within a 0.010 margin, saves up to 49% of retraining time, and improves the time-calibration trade-off measured by negative log-likelihood.

Hugging Face daily papers · 11d agoAI research

PLC-DPO: Posterior Label Correction in Noisy and Ambiguous Preference Optimization

PLC-DPO corrects noisy preference labels during DPO by routing each pair as clean, flip, or tie using calibrated policy-reference margins.

PLC-DPO addresses reversed, weak, or ambiguous preference labels in Direct Preference Optimization by using the calibrated policy-reference margin as online evidence to route each pair's training signal as clean, flip, or tie. This actively corrects supervision direction and strength rather than only filtering suspicious examples. Across 57 dataset-model-benchmark cells, PLC-DPO achieves the best mean win rate of 60.5 versus 55.5 for the next-best method. Injected-noise and tie stress tests plus human disagreement analysis show the routing stays stable and distinguishes flipped from weakly directional pairs.

Hugging Face daily papers · 17d agoAI research

Target leakage, not model class, explains reported accuracy in survey-based cardiovascular screening: a leakage-tiered audit of glass-box and tabular foundation models

Audits of 10 classifiers on BRFSS show target leakage, not model class, drives the reported 0.89 AUROC in survey-based cardiovascular screening.

The study benchmarks ten model classes, including glass-box and tabular foundation models, for prevalent myocardial infarction on 442,067 respondents of the 2022 BRFSS across five feature tiers of decreasing leakage risk. Removing two post-diagnostic features costs every model 0.049-0.051 AUROC and collapses performance into a 0.0045-wide band, and the explainable boosting machine matches all alternatives within 0.005 while scoring roughly 104x faster than the strongest foundation model. Frozen models transport within 0.002 AUROC to 2023 data; the authors conclude evaluation practice and feature sets, not model capacity, are the binding constraint.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL · 6d agoAI research1

FlowBalance: Verifier-Grounded Self-Improvement from On-Policy Reasoning Experience

FlowBalance is a verifier-grounded self-improvement method that beats FlowRL on Qwen3-4B and Qwen3-8B math reasoning while improving training stability.

FlowBalance calibrates dense self-guidance scores with verifier-derived group advantages: guidance is retained on positive-advantage trajectories, reversed on negative-advantage trajectories, and disabled when rollout groups show no outcome preference. The method exponentially reweights a reference policy via trajectory balance, with guarantees including within-group contrast preservation and a minimum-change reverse-KL characterization. On mathematical reasoning it outperforms FlowRL on Qwen3-4B and Qwen3-8B, trains faster and more stably, avoids direct OPSD's response-length collapse, and shows higher correct-strategy diversity on AIME24.

Hugging Face daily papers · 14d agoAI research

Higher-order pruning of experts in mixture-of-experts language models

New HOPE method uses second-order objectives to prune Mixture-of-Experts LLMs, outperforming REAP at 50% pruning on models up to 122B parameters.

Researchers derive HOPE (Higher-Order Pruning of Experts), a second-order pruning objective for Mixture-of-Experts language models that provably minimizes an upper bound on pruning error by modeling cooperative expert interactions. They show REAP, a state-of-the-art first-order method, is a special case of HOPE with interaction terms ignored. Across three frontier MoE models up to 122B parameters, two calibration sets, and benchmarks covering math, instruction following, coding, and agentic tasks, HOPE achieves the best average rank (1.58 of 5 at 50% pruning versus 2.42 for REAP), with gains up to +6.1% on agentic coding.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL · 20h agoAI research

How Much is a Human Right Worth? ECtHR-NPD: A Benchmark for Predicting Non-Pecuniary Damage Awards

ECtHR-NPD benchmark covers 14,575 European Court of Human Rights cases for predicting non-pecuniary damage awards; LLMs struggle with zero and high awards.

Researchers introduce ECtHR-NPD, described as the first benchmark for predicting non-pecuniary damage awards at the European Court of Human Rights from case information where no statutory formula exists. It contains 14,575 cases with case-level awards in nominal euros, chronological splits, and a protocol separating target construction from model input. Evaluations covering constant predictors, gradient-boosted trees, retrieval methods, fine-tuned encoder LMs, prompted decoder LMs, and knowledge-augmented agents show sophisticated LM approaches do not consistently outperform the strongest feature-based baseline. All model families struggle to identify zero awards and to calibrate high-award predictions, with further degradation on a Challenging test view.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL · 21h agoAI research

Evaluating Verified Autonomy in Quantum Engineering

Quantum-Harbor lab and QIQCBench (49 tasks) expose wide performance gaps across 17 frontier agentic systems in verified quantum engineering.

Researchers built Quantum-Harbor, a virtual laboratory providing a controlled execution environment where scientific AI agents interacting with quantum systems can have both actions and conclusions directly verified. QIQCBench contributes 49 expert-authored tasks spanning calibration and control, error correction and compilation, and sensing and networking. Across 17 frontier agentic systems, verified performance varied widely, exposing a substantial gap between demonstrated capability and reliable autonomous operation.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL · 1d agoAI research1

E2A-Bench: Benchmarking Evidence-to-Action Reliability in Financial Chart Reasoning

E2A-Bench, a 969-query financial chart reasoning benchmark, finds VLMs fail evidence-to-action consistency, with fine-tuning amplifying BUY:SELL bias 4-6x.

E2A-Bench is a 969-query benchmark built from 323 HS300 constituents across three input modalities with deterministic OHLCV-derived evidence anchors, evaluating grounding, reasoning-action consistency, evidence-confidence calibration, and directional coverage via UCR, RCI, ECI, and NDR metrics. Testing 20 VLMs showed the lowest-hallucination model ranked near the bottom on coverage with only 6.4% directional coverage, and oracle-aided verification reduced unsupported claims but could collapse coverage. Financial fine-tuning amplified the BUY:SELL ratio by factors of 4.21 to 4.68 across base-fine-tuned pairs.

Hugging Face daily papers · 4d agoAI research

SAS: Simple Attention Sparsification via End-to-End Optimization of Context Ranking

SAS trains a gated sparse attention selector end-to-end with the language modeling loss, beating distillation-based sparsifiers on reasoning, long-context, and agentic tasks.

The paper proposes Simple Attention Sparsification (SAS), which injects a selector's continuous scores into attention softmax logits so the language modeling loss directly optimizes context ranking instead of distilling dense attention distributions. Key design choices include log-form gates inside the softmax, normalized gates calibrated against the current block, and preserved continuous selector scores. A memory-efficient Triton kernel integrates SAS into FlashAttention-style computation for long-sequence training. SAS outperforms trainable sparse attention baselines across budgets, with the largest gains under tight attention budgets.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL · 5d agoAI research 2 sources2

Domain-Specific Hallucination Detection in Large Language Models

A multi-signal pipeline detects LLM hallucinations, reaching F1 0.915 on HaluEval and cutting Qwen2.5-0.5B hallucination rates from 85.5% to 37.7% via DPO.

The paper presents a hallucination detection pipeline combining fine-tuned DeBERTa-v3 classification, Monte Carlo Dropout uncertainty, and temperature-scaled calibration. It achieves F1 0.915 and AUROC 0.977 on general-domain HaluEval tasks, with MC Dropout inference raising accuracy to 93.2%. Applying DPO to a Qwen2.5-0.5B generator reduces its hallucination rate from 85.5% to 37.7%, while cross-domain evaluation shows poor general-domain transfer to SciFact (F1 0.52) and PubMedBERT fine-tuning as the strongest adaptation (F1 0.63).

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL · 6d agoAI research1

Memory as Plans: World-Action Modeling with Memory-Grounded Planning

Researchers introduce MaP-WAM, decomposing memory-dependent robot manipulation into memory-grounded planning and plan-conditioned execution, achieving 83.3% on RMBench and 78% on real robots.

MaP-WAM converts long-term multimodal episodic memory — segment records with language instructions and sparse visual context — into compact plans of next-segment language goals and visual guidance. A World-Action-Progress model jointly predicts action chunks and execution progress, calibrating predictions via plan-observation alignment for adaptive segment transitions and closed-loop context updates. Structured attention keeps the executor context length fixed and enables key-value caching, yielding state-of-the-art 83.3% success on RMBench, 78.0% on real-robot tasks, and roughly constant inference latency as task history grows.

Hugging Face daily papers · 7d agoAI research

Attention-DP3: Spatially Object-aware 3D Diffusion Policy via Geometry-aligned Attentional Conditioning

Attention-DP3 adds spatially object-aware attentional conditioning to 3D diffusion policies, improving robotic manipulation by up to 31% under heavy clutter.

Attention-DP3 injects object-level geometric cues into the unchanged DP3 diffusion policy via Tri-field Attentional Conditioning, using targetness, intra-target saliency, and backgroundness fields. Open-vocabulary 2D segmentation masks are lifted to 3D with calibrated camera geometry to build object-centric priors. Experiments on Adroit, DexArt, MetaWorld, and a real-world SO101 platform show state-of-the-art results, outperforming DP3 by up to 31% under heavy distractor clutter; the code is publicly available on GitHub.

Hugging Face daily papers · 7d agoAI research

Likelihood-free inference with nuisance parameters through normalizing flows

Researchers decompose normalizing flows to derive near-pivotal statistics for likelihood-free inference with nuisance parameters, recovering the t-test and beating Welch limits.

A new paper decomposes neural-network normalizing flows to uncover pivotal statistics in the presence of nuisance parameters using only a sample generator from the distribution of interest. The statistic is near-pivotal in the sense of minimum average KL-divergence of its p-values and can incorporate prior knowledge of group invariances such as translation and scale. Experiments show it recovers the one-sample t-test almost exactly, outperforms the Welch test on worst-case size over a constrained variance-ratio range, and delivers higher power and much faster runtime than profile likelihood-ratio techniques on small-to-moderate samples.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL · 7d agoAI research

Fortunate Recall: Ontology-Driven Memory Lifecycle Management for Persistent Coherence in LLMs

Fortunate Recall introduces ontology-based lifecycle policies for LLM memory, cutting confabulation roughly in half (e.g., 45.1% to 22.4%) versus Mem0.

Fortunate Recall (FR) is a composable policy layer that classifies personal facts into a 10+1 behavioral ontology and applies category-specific lifecycle rules including differential temporal decay, slot-key supersession, event-time validity, and retrieval routing. FR-Bank scores 76.9% on the new 516-question LifecycleBench, ahead of Mem0, A-MEM, Memory-R1, and MemoryOS (61%-70.5%), and 75.2% on LongMemEval-S. End-to-end, confabulation drops from Mem0's 45.1% to 22.4% over answered queries, with the ranking replicating on open-weight Kimi K2.5 and transferring to the independent BEAM benchmark (46.8% vs 32.9%).

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL · 7d agoAI research

HybridFLow: SDN-Orchestrated Client Partitioning for Hybrid Federated Learning

HybridFLow uses SDN topology visibility to partition federated-learning clients into sync/async groups, reaching 80% accuracy 33-40% faster than SmartFLow.

HybridFLow is a closed-loop, SDN-driven orchestration framework for hybrid federated learning that integrates network-layer intelligence into cross-silo training. It leverages the SDN controller's global topology view to generate calibrated per-client communication-time estimates, partitioning clients into synchronous and asynchronous groups while balancing round latency and update staleness, with measured times fed back after each round. Across multiple network topologies it reaches 80% target accuracy 33-40% faster than SmartFLow and cuts average round duration by 30-40 seconds, while FedAsync fails to reach target accuracy under non-IID data.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL · 7d agoAI research

Curriculum Learning as Transport: Understanding Curricula with Wasserstein Geodesics

Researchers model curriculum learning as Wasserstein transport over difficulty distributions, finding curriculum benefits are strongly task- and budget-dependent with no dominant strategy.

The framework represents curricula as trajectories of training distributions over discrete difficulty levels, decoupling ordering, matched exposure, endpoint smoothness, and pacing. Across a calibrated suite of 12 tasks and 33 difficulty axes under fixed training budgets, no single strategy dominates, though easy-to-hard ordering improves hard-level performance relative to exposure-matched static sampling. Endpoint smoothness and pacing substantially affect where along the difficulty spectrum a curriculum is effective, and the transport view supports extensions to learned pacing and structured difficulty spaces.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL · 8d agoAI research1

Everything in Moderation: Per-Domain Coverage Optima and Alignment-Resistant Domain Gaps in Multi-Domain Mid-Training

Controlled mid-training experiments on Qwen3-8B-Base find each domain has a 10-40% coverage optimum and domain gaps survive alignment SFT.

Using Qwen3-8B-Base (with a 4B replication) across five semantically rule-disjoint KOR-Bench domains, the authors train 30 data allocations spanning the five-domain simplex at five seeds each. All five domains show interior optima in the moderate 10-40% coverage band, and domain gaps persist after a fixed-budget compensatory SFT pass, which raises 116/120 cells yet bridges 0/240 pairs at a 5% threshold. Zero coverage collapses mid-training-only accuracy, though a FineWeb-Edu-only control shows the collapse is partly generic drift. The results argue mid-training data composition requires principled design rather than reliance on later alignment.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL · 8d agoAI research1

Bag of Tricks or Bag of Myths? Reducing Modeling Complexity with Task Knowledge in Explainable Suicide Risk Assessment

Researchers audit 31 NLP techniques for clinician-annotated suicide risk prediction, finding only 5 of 31 comparisons yield reliable gains.

A study of 1,635 clinician-annotated social media posts ran roughly 300 controlled experiments across 7 methodological families, auditing techniques such as model scaling, synthetic data, ensembling, and threshold tuning under severe class imbalance. The proposed system reformulates risk factor prediction as entailment between posts and codebook definitions, using architecturally diverse ensembles with class-balanced training and deployment-consistent calibration. It scores 0.8203 for risk, 0.7953 for evidence, and 0.7045 macro-F1 for factors, ranking third among 53 teams.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL · 9d agoAI research

Scores Alone Do Not Prove Discovery: The Discovery Certification Protocol for Auditing AI Research Agents

Researchers introduce the Discovery Certification Protocol, an auditable test framework that verifies whether AI research agents' claimed discoveries are genuine.

The Discovery Certification Protocol (DCP) converts AI research agents' discovery claims into executable recovery and feedback tests organized as gated audits. Controlled audits in SQLite optimization and virtual catalyst control produced zero recoveries in 96 episodes, with an upper bound of 0.0468. A deterministic, LLM-free verifier reproduces audit decisions from frozen evidence, giving AI research a common evidence language for outcomes, alternative routes, and feedback effects.

Hugging Face daily papers · 10d agoAI research

Bilevel Coordinated Reflection: A Game-Theoretic Approach to Multi-Agent LLM Systems

Paper models multi-agent LLM orchestration as a bilevel game, proving transcript-only gating limits and introducing grounded-memory SRMA.

A new paper frames orchestrator-worker coordination in multi-agent LLM systems as a bilevel coordination game and analyzes free-form reflection as stochastic movement over semantic memory states, deriving finite-time bounds and an information-theoretic impossibility result: no gate observing only the generated transcript can uniformly improve over text-indistinguishable environments, while an environment-grounded gate can. The authors propose Stochastic Reflective Memory Ascent (SRMA), which accepts candidate memory only when grounded evaluation risk strictly decreases, with geometric or polynomial convergence guarantees. On 500 SWE-bench instances, a Kimi-based instantiation of the full system resolves 72.2% versus a 70.8% public mini-SWE-agent reference.

Hugging Face daily papers · 15d agoAI research1