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A Hybrid LSTM-XGBoost Framework for Multi-Horizon Stock Return Prediction Across Diversified Equity Portfolios

Hybrid LSTM-XGBoost model predicts multi-horizon returns for 14 US equities, cutting 30-day RMSE to about one-third of a standalone LSTM baseline.

The paper combines a two-layer LSTM (64 hidden units) processing 60-day windows of five market features with an XGBoost regressor over a 78-dimensional hybrid feature vector including 14 technical indicators. It is trained on pooled data for 14 US equities across six sectors using chronological splits and per-stock MinMaxScaling to prevent look-ahead bias, and evaluated at 30, 90, 252, and 365 trading-day horizons. The hybrid achieves test RMSE of 0.0949 at 30 days, roughly one-third of the standalone LSTM, while 97.6% directional accuracy at 365 days largely tracks the base rate of positive returns.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CLSep 11, 17:51 UTC · 5d agoAI research

Quantum Feature Engineering for Credit Default Prediction: When and Why IQP Circuits Help Linear Classifiers

Quantum IQP circuit features lift logistic-regression credit-default F1 from 0.462 to 0.517, beating Kernel PCA at an equal feature budget.

Using the UCI Default of Credit Card Clients dataset and five-fold cross-validation, an 8-qubit IQP circuit adds 16 features that raise Logistic Regression F1 from 0.462 to 0.517 (+0.055, p < 0.0001). Kernel PCA, the best classical non-linear alternative, reaches only 0.493 at the same feature count, with the gap surviving Benjamini-Hochberg correction across 12 tests (p = 0.00007). Only the linear classifier benefits, pointing to a linear-expressivity mechanism. Feature selection matters: Random Forest importance-guided selection reaches F1 = 0.523 while maximally uncorrelated features drop to 0.496.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CLSep 9, 17:41 UTC · 7d agoAI research

Unsolved Problem by Fields Medalist Breached by Two High School Students

Two high school students used Claude Opus 5 and GPT-5.6 Sol to help solve an open Lorentzian polynomials problem, posting a 75-page arXiv proof.

Aayush Bathija and Prince Rohatgi of Oak Park High School, mentored by UCLA postdoc Daniel Soskin, published the 75-page paper 'Bounded Ratios for Lorentzian Polynomials' (arXiv 2609.05341), solving an open problem in Fields Medalist June Huh's Lorentzian polynomial theory. The main structural theorem extends bounded coefficient-ratio characterization from quadratic to arbitrary-degree polynomials via discrete convexity conditions. The students used Claude Opus 5 and GPT-5.6 Sol for exploration and proof ideas but independently verified all arguments; the result follows an open letter from 25 Fields Medalists voicing concerns about AI's impact on mathematical rigor.

Hacker News · securitySep 14, 12:23 UTC · 3d agoAI research HN 22↑ · 19 comments

Can Skills Learned in Games Transfer to Real-World Work?

Good Start Labs trains models in strategy games like 1830 and Diplomacy, showing terminal-agent training transfers to financial research benchmarks.

Good Start Labs, spun out of Every with $3.6M from General Catalyst and Inovia, trains AI models in verifiable strategy games. A 30B model trained as a multi-turn terminal agent in 1830: The Game of Railroads and Robber Barons improved Finance-Agent benchmark performance, while single-turn QA training did not transfer. The founders also co-authored COS-PLAY, a paper on co-evolving LLM decision and skill-bank agents for long-horizon tasks.

Latent SpaceSep 15, 20:11 UTC · 1d agoAI research

AI agents are flooding public services with new requests

Researcher documents 'agentic flooding' across 84 cases in 11 jurisdictions as AI tools drive surging complaint volumes at public services worldwide.

TechCrunch covers researcher Chris Schmitz's paper documenting 'agentic flooding' across 84 potential cases in 11 jurisdictions, where AI tools drive surges in filings to public services. UK housing ombudsman complaints rose from 2,600 in 2022 to over 7,000, and CFPB complaints grew fivefold over the same period, with similar jumps in Brazilian and German petitions. The paper, set for presentation at the AI Ethics and Society conference, argues most new filings are legitimate claims previously blocked by administrative burden, and its dataset is publicly released.

TechCrunch · AISep 10, 14:53 UTC · 6d agoAI research