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Likelihood-free inference with nuisance parameters through normalizing flows
Researchers decompose normalizing flows to derive near-pivotal statistics for likelihood-free inference with nuisance parameters, recovering the t-test and beating Welch limits.
A new paper decomposes neural-network normalizing flows to uncover pivotal statistics in the presence of nuisance parameters using only a sample generator from the distribution of interest. The statistic is near-pivotal in the sense of minimum average KL-divergence of its p-values and can incorporate prior knowledge of group invariances such as translation and scale. Experiments show it recovers the one-sample t-test almost exactly, outperforms the Welch test on worst-case size over a constrained variance-ratio range, and delivers higher power and much faster runtime than profile likelihood-ratio techniques on small-to-moderate samples.
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Double descent is the principle of least action
A statistical mechanics analysis explains double descent: finite-time diffusion induces effective weight decay that regularizes models as parameters grow.
The paper models stochastic gradient-based training as a particle diffusing over the training-loss energy landscape at an induced temperature, sampling parameters via a Boltzmann distribution. Finite training time carries an effective weight decay, making every parameter a quadratic degree of freedom governed by the equipartition theorem. Adding parameters at fixed training loss lowers the temperature and the L2 norm of the stationary path, increasing effective regularization and explaining the double descent phenomenon.
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Coding Agents Have Converged: Why the SWE-bench Leaderboard Can No Longer Order Its Top Entries, and What to Measure Instead
Audit of 254 SWE-bench submissions finds top coding-agent entries statistically inseparable, so small leaderboard gaps no longer establish rank.
The paper audits 254 SWE-bench submissions across four splits without running models. On Verified, the top two entries each resolve 396 of 500 instances, and exact paired McNemar tests separate none of the 29 adjacent top-thirty pairs at alpha=0.05. Within-model scaffold score ranges reach 29.8 percentage points, versus an 8.8-point spread among the top thirty. The authors release a five-step audit protocol and recommend reporting comparison-set-specific resolution and model-scaffold provenance.
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When LLM judges agree, should we believe them?
Amazon ICML paper uses Ising models to correct correlated LLM-judge votes, beating accuracy-weighted panels by 9-14%.
Amazon Science describes an ICML paper, "Dependence-aware label aggregation for LLM-as-a-judge via Ising models," addressing how correlated judge outputs inflate majority-vote confidence. The unsupervised method models pairwise dependence between judges, learning both reliability and similarity without human reference labels. Tested on relevance, toxicity, and summarization tasks with 10 judge models at temperature zero, it outperformed accuracy-weighted voting by 9% to 14%.
Hacker News · AI40
AlphaGenome Atlas: A predictive map of every possible DNA letter change in the human genome
Google DeepMind released AlphaGenome Atlas, a free 1-petabyte platform predicting the molecular effects of all ~9 billion possible single-letter DNA variants.
Google DeepMind introduced AlphaGenome Atlas, containing precomputed predictions for the effects of roughly 9 billion single-nucleotide variants across the human genome, spanning hundreds of human and mouse cell types. The 1-petabyte dataset is more than 30 times larger than the AlphaFold Database and includes an AlphaGenome Variant Impact (AVI) score combining AlphaGenome and AlphaMissense predictions for both coding and non-coding regions. External collaborators have already used it to identify and experimentally verify variants in unsolved rare disease research. It is available via a free web portal, the AlphaGenome API, and as a skill in Google Antigravity.
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Exponential Hardness of Off-Policy Evaluation under History-Dependent Logging
Researchers prove off-policy evaluation under history-dependent logging requires exponentially many episodes, resolving a hardness question for model-based POMDP evaluation.
The paper constructs POMDPs with at most two latent states per stage, three actions, and a three-memory-state logger where evaluating a known deterministic target policy to accuracy 1/8 requires Θ((3/2)^H log(1/δ)) episodes for any horizon H≥3. Coverage and outcome-revealing conditions hold with constants independent of H, yet a reset erases the unknown transition that determines the target value. The authors characterize the resulting statistical experiment exactly, derive a matching optimal estimator, and validate predictions on a two-lane gridworld. This settles the history-dependent-logging, model-based case posed by Zhang and Jiang (arXiv:2503.01134).
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Agora: Git as Shared Memory for Collective AutoResearch
Agora records multi-agent research as an append-only Git DAG; 13 LLM workers ran nearly 12 days on a weight-transfer problem.
Agora stores every result, hypothesis, and verification as an immutable commit in a Git-stored DAG, with a derived index exposing the frontier and verification status of claims. In a nearly 12-day run, 13 language-model workers with no assigned tasks or central planner published 1,703 contributions on initializing a frozen 119.6M-parameter attention-SSM hybrid from 141 donor models. They improved the evaluator from 3.39 to 1.899 bits per byte, closing 62% of the gap to a trained GPT-2 124M, with 165 independent reproductions posted and none failing.
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Bridging Control, Inference, Transport, and Thermodynamics: From Theory to Applications in Learning
Review connects control theory, optimal transport, probabilistic inference, thermodynamics, and machine learning via free-energy optimization under constraints.
The review unifies five fields: control theory, optimal transport, probabilistic inference, non-equilibrium thermodynamics, and machine learning. The common conceptual thread is optimization of free-energy-like functionals under dynamical or statistical constraints. Selected applications are presented in reinforcement learning, variational inference, and generative modeling. The tutorial-style text assumes no prior familiarity and begins from physics principles.
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Why don't machine learning research agents overfit?
Amazon researchers explain why ML research agents avoid benchmark overfitting, attributing generalization to compressibility of successful strategies.
Amazon Science summarizes the paper "What fits (into few tokens) doesn't overfit: Compression and generalization in ML research agents," which investigates why benchmark hill-climbing loops, whether run by human communities or LLM research agents, do not produce rampant overfitting. The explanation formalizes Occam's razor via a counting argument: successful ML strategies are highly compressible, so short descriptions lack room to memorize benchmark data and must capture real structure. LLM-based agents, being resettable and controllable, allow this hypothesis to be tested empirically.
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Not All Prompts Are Equal: Exploration-Guided Prompt Scaffolding for Multimodal Reinforcement Post-Training
Exploration-guided prompt scaffolding rewrites training prompts by Exploration Potential Score, boosting multimodal RL post-training accuracy up to 11.5%.
The paper proposes dynamically adapting the training prompt distribution during online RL post-training of multimodal LLMs using the Exploration Potential Score (EPS), a lightweight rollout-based proxy for prompt utility computed from on-policy statistics with no additional overhead. Rather than discarding low-utility prompts, a teacher model generates scaffolded rewrites that preserve task intent while making training more informative. Integrated with GRPO on Geo3K and MMK12, the method achieves up to 9.7% relative in-domain improvement plus 11.5% on MathVision and 11.1% on MMMU-Pro.
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Enabling Creative Exploration for Vibe Design Agents
Separating design-direction exploration from code generation via structured specifications broadens UI alternatives without destabilizing output.
The paper proposes an inference architecture for vibe design agents that makes design direction an explicit intermediate decision: a Verbalized Sampling-inspired pre-pass proposes structured design specifications with typicality scores, an external selector samples one, and a downstream generator realizes it under fixed settings. Across 168 prompts with 1,255 paired comparisons per temperature, theme sampling broadens selection coverage and screenshot variation, with LLM-judge preferences varying across interventions and prompt complexity. An online experiment with over 300,000 tasks found the code-export increase statistically uncertain, though negative feedback events decreased alongside modest operational costs.
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Can Edge-Deployable Vision-Language Models Identify Species?
Evaluation of 2-8B VLMs (Qwen3-VL, Gemma3) against BioCLIP on camera-trap species ID shows all models degrade sharply on field imagery.
The study tests whether edge-deployable 2-8B vision-language models carry genuine taxonomic knowledge, comparing Qwen3-VL 2B/4B/8B and Gemma3 4B against the 300M specialist BioCLIP on a 96-species task across clean iNaturalist photos and six LILA.science camera-trap collections. All models degrade 9.6-26.6 percentage points on field imagery, and BioCLIP outperforms every VLM by 33.2-59.2 points on an expanded 200-image sample, suggesting specialized data rather than scale drives the gap. Under open-set prompting, 5.9-9.6% of responses are syntactically valid but taxonomically nonexistent species names, with fabrication rankings replicating across evaluation sets.
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Competence-Gated Pooling of Language Models and Priors for Event Forecasting
Paper proposes a competence gate pooling language model forecasts with external priors, improving Brier score from 0.0771 to 0.0732 across 2,357 binary questions.
The paper defines a language model's relative competence as its marginal value beyond an available external forecast, and derives conditions under Brier loss where model disagreement improves that forecast. A competence gate estimates domain-level source weights from resolved outcomes, shrinks uncertain estimates toward a global weight, and recalibrates the pooled forecast. Across 2,357 resolved binary questions and five language models, it improves the external baseline from 0.0771 to 0.0732 Brier and beats global forecast combinations, though it defers to the market on ForecastBench. Across four Qwen models, verbal confidence failed to identify when the model outperformed the external forecast, while outcome-estimated competence supported better abstention.
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Quantum Feature Engineering for Credit Default Prediction: When and Why IQP Circuits Help Linear Classifiers
Quantum IQP circuit features lift logistic-regression credit-default F1 from 0.462 to 0.517, beating Kernel PCA at an equal feature budget.
Using the UCI Default of Credit Card Clients dataset and five-fold cross-validation, an 8-qubit IQP circuit adds 16 features that raise Logistic Regression F1 from 0.462 to 0.517 (+0.055, p < 0.0001). Kernel PCA, the best classical non-linear alternative, reaches only 0.493 at the same feature count, with the gap surviving Benjamini-Hochberg correction across 12 tests (p = 0.00007). Only the linear classifier benefits, pointing to a linear-expressivity mechanism. Feature selection matters: Random Forest importance-guided selection reaches F1 = 0.523 while maximally uncorrelated features drop to 0.496.
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Learning with Covariance Matrices: Principal Component Analysis Meets Learning with Graphs
Theoretical tutorial establishes equivalence between covariance neural networks and PCA, with stability and transferability bounds and brain-age applications.
The paper reviews the theory of coVariance neural networks (VNNs), graph neural networks that operate on covariance matrices as graphs. It derives a conceptual equivalence between VNNs and PCA-based information processing, refined stability bounds under finite-sample covariance perturbations, and transferability characterizations across multiscale datasets. Demonstrated applications include brain age gap estimation for neurodegenerative conditions from neuroimaging data.
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Fortunate Recall: Ontology-Driven Memory Lifecycle Management for Persistent Coherence in LLMs
Fortunate Recall introduces ontology-based lifecycle policies for LLM memory, cutting confabulation roughly in half (e.g., 45.1% to 22.4%) versus Mem0.
Fortunate Recall (FR) is a composable policy layer that classifies personal facts into a 10+1 behavioral ontology and applies category-specific lifecycle rules including differential temporal decay, slot-key supersession, event-time validity, and retrieval routing. FR-Bank scores 76.9% on the new 516-question LifecycleBench, ahead of Mem0, A-MEM, Memory-R1, and MemoryOS (61%-70.5%), and 75.2% on LongMemEval-S. End-to-end, confabulation drops from Mem0's 45.1% to 22.4% over answered queries, with the ranking replicating on open-weight Kimi K2.5 and transferring to the independent BEAM benchmark (46.8% vs 32.9%).
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Deepmind's AlphaGenome Atlas maps every possible DNA change in the human genome
DeepMind's AlphaGenome Atlas precomputes impact predictions for ~9 billion human DNA variants in a 1-petabyte dataset; its AVI score beats CADD in benchmarks
Google DeepMind released the AlphaGenome Atlas, precomputing functional-effect predictions for roughly 9 billion human genome variants (about 27,000 prediction values per variant) in a one-petabyte dataset more than 30 times the size of the AlphaFold database. The accompanying AlphaGenome Variant Impact Score (AVI), a small neural network combining AlphaGenome, AlphaMissense and evolutionary conservation features (18 inputs versus CADD's 150+), outperformed existing tools on clinically classified variants, ranking causal variants in the top 50 candidates for 29.5% of solved GREGoR cases versus 12.5% for CADD. A GREGoR epilepsy case illustrates the impact: AVI elevated a previously unclear DNM1 splice variant that lab experiments confirmed as likely disease-causing. The atlas is available for noncommercial use via web portal, API and a Google Antigravity skill, with a commercial version planned through Google Cloud.
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Nearly Tight Rademacher Bounds for Sparsely Activated Neural Networks
Theory paper derives nearly tight Rademacher complexity bounds for sparsely activated one-hidden-layer ReLU networks.
Building on Awasthi et al. (COLT 2024), the authors bound statistical complexity for networks where each input activates at most k of s hidden units. A support-preserving cover and normalized chaining argument remove the explicit dimension factor, with matching lower bounds up to logarithms. They also derive agnostic minimax excess-risk bounds of order min{1, sqrt(s/(km))} for a normalized bounded loss and show bias bounds comparable to WR restore worst-case rates even on domains where sparsity holds globally.
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Google DeepMind Releases AlphaGenome Atlas
Google DeepMind released AlphaGenome Atlas, a 1-petabyte database pre-computing effects of all 9 billion single-nucleotide variants in the human genome, with a unified AVI score.
Google DeepMind launched AlphaGenome Atlas, a database that predicts the regulatory impact of every possible single nucleotide variant across the roughly 3 billion base pairs of the human genome, yielding a 1-petabyte dataset. It introduces the AlphaGenome Variant Impact (AVI) score, combining coding and non-coding predictions for rapid variant prioritization. Broad Institute researchers used it to support solving an unsolved rare disease case via a predicted DNM1 splice variant, and analysis of 54,000+ UK Biobank participants uncovered 22% more non-coding genetic associations, including 19 regions linked to BMI. The Atlas is available through a no-code web portal.
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Axis Robotics Releases AXIS: A Browser-Based Data Engine With 207 Robot Manipulation Tasks and 50,129 Trajectories
Axis Robotics and academic partners released AXIS, a browser-based teleoperation system yielding 207 manipulation tasks and 50,129 trajectories that lifts pi0.5 to 88.8 on LIBERO-Plus.
A team from Axis Robotics, UC Berkeley, Georgia Tech, and NTU introduced AXIS, a browser-based data engine where contributors teleoperate a simulated Franka Research 3 in a MuJoCo WebAssembly frontend while GPU backends handle task generation, training, and evaluation. The released snapshot holds 207 tasks, 50,129 episodes, and 60K+ task or scene variants from more than 70,000 community contributors. Continual pretraining of pi0.5 on AXIS data raises LIBERO-Plus performance from 83.9 to 88.8, versus 57.5 for a volume-matched RoboCasa365 control; the 2.36 TB dataset is gated for non-commercial academic use.
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Signed Rescue Routing: Harm-Aware Cascades for Efficient LLM Inference
Signed Rescue Routing improves LLM cascade efficiency by predicting when a larger model actually corrects a smaller one rather than uncertainty.
Signed Rescue Routing (SRR) is a budgeted cascade method that separately predicts rescues and regressions when escalating from a small to a large model, ranking requests by their signed difference. The authors prove this signed conditional gain is Bayes-optimal under a fixed escalation budget and add only a lightweight two-head router needing small-model output statistics at deployment. Evaluation with Qwen3-4B and Qwen3-8B on MMLU, HellaSwag, and ARC-Challenge shows better accuracy-compute tradeoffs than entropy routing and learned error predictors.
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WearableQA: A Benchmark for Health Reasoning over Real-World Wearable Data
WearableQA benchmark tests LLM health reasoning over longitudinal wearable data; the best of 14 evaluated LLMs reaches 72.9% accuracy.
WearableQA comprises 4,084 ten-option multiple-choice questions built from wearable time series, blood biomarkers, and demographics of 200 real users with up to 500 days of daily measurements. It defines 16 question types along two axes: data versus health reasoning, and single- versus cross-signal reasoning. Evaluation of 14 proprietary and open-source LLMs shows performance from 19.6% to 72.9% against a 10% chance baseline, with most models below 60%.
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Online Change-point Detection for Cooperative Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning
Researchers propose Patterns of Past Rewards (PPR), a lightweight reward-based detector that flags environment shifts in cooperative multi-agent reinforcement learning training.
The paper introduces Patterns of Past Rewards (PPR), an algorithm-agnostic detector that smooths cooperative agents' return streams and applies statistical drift testing to flag environment or task changes. Evaluation in a custom Speaker-Listener environment built on the Multi-Agent Particle Environment under two non-stationarity scenarios shows PPR balances detection speed against alarm stability. It avoids the repeated alarms of a smoothed-return baseline and the missed shifts of raw-return detection, enabling MARL systems to reliably identify major changes during training.
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Why AI food looks like that
Experts explain why AI-generated food images look unappetizing, citing diffusion model limitations, weak structural reasoning, and stylized training data.
The Verge examines why AI-generated food imagery from restaurants and brands often appears grotesque, citing researchers from Oxford, Naples, Zurich, and London. Diffusion models recover coarse structure before fine texture, so structural errors like extra fingers or donut shrimp get baked in early. Researchers note the models are weak at thin, continuous, terminating structures such as noodles, and reproduce the glossy conventions of professional food photography without understanding the objects. Odd internet imagery and memes in training data further skew outputs toward strange textures and clustered holes.
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WearableQA: A Benchmark for Health Reasoning over Real-World Wearable Data
WearableQA benchmark introduces 4,084 questions over real longitudinal wearable data, showing 14 LLMs score 19.6-72.9% on health reasoning, far from solved.
WearableQA is a benchmark of 4,084 10-option multiple-choice questions built from wearable time series, blood biomarkers, and demographics of 200 real users with up to 500 days of daily measurements. It defines 16 question types along two axes: data versus health reasoning, and single- versus cross-signal reasoning, using a dual-grounding framework combining literature and population-validated patterns. Evaluations of 14 proprietary and open-source LLMs show accuracy ranging from 19.6% to 72.9% against a 10% chance baseline, with most models below 60%.
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What LLM Trading Agents Actually Do in Production: A Six-Month, Population-Scale Record from Two Fleets
Six-month record of 7.5M LLM trading agent invocations shows volatility-blind sizing, minimal upside capture, and no directional edge across two fleets.
The study records autonomous LLM trading agents in production across DX Terminal Pro (3,505 user-funded vaults trading real ETH in Base memecoin markets) and the DXAP fleet (500-599 agents on Hyperliquid perpetuals), spanning roughly six months, 7.5M single-model invocations and about 300K onchain actions. A risk slider explains leverage (+0.425 per level), median leverage is 5.0x in every volatility sextile, and one posture-slider cell holds 62% of liquidations. Agents capture little upside: 43.2% of positions saw +300 bps favorable excursion within 24h yet 49.3% of those closed negative, while the DXAP fleet trails a matched retail benchmark (41% vs 50% roundtrip win rate). A paired-replay league of frontier models finds decision quality statistically indistinguishable at this horizon.
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