ZeroHour

Search: “Open Technology Fund”

32 stories in the last 30d

Who gets to define the rules for AI?

Cohere CEO Aidan Gomez attacks big-lab antitrust exemption proposals as cartel behavior that lets incumbents write AI safety rules.

Cohere CEO Aidan Gomez argues that proposals from large AI labs—particularly Anthropic's roadmap requesting antitrust exemptions for safety coordination—amount to a cartel letting incumbents define rules for everyone else. He draws parallels to the 1975 SEC NRSRO credit-rating designations and the EU's 1985 Motor Vehicle Block Exemption, where safety justifications produced incumbent-protecting market structures. Gomez supports independent review of highly capable AI systems but disputes who writes the standards, who conducts review, and who participates. He also warns AI cyber offense is getting cheaper faster than defenses are improving.

⚡ Weekly Recap: AI-Powered PLC Attacks, GitLab Attacks, Stripe Key Leaks and More

US agencies warn of AI-assisted attacks on exposed Siemens PLCs; the week also saw GitLab CVE-2026-19478 exploited and trojanized npm packages found.

The weekly recap leads with a US government warning that threat actors use AI-generated scripts and Censys/ZoomEye scanning to attack internet-exposed Siemens S7 PLCs in water, energy and manufacturing, calling it an active threat. Other stories include active exploitation of GitLab CVE-2026-19478 (CVSS 9.4, unauthenticated project rewriting), 14 trojanized npm packages delivering the RedC2 4.0 Linux backdoor, and the Zombie Card attack that revives expired Visa cards for contactless payment fraud. It also covers suspected Russian clusters UNC6293, UNC7005 and UNC5976 phishing campaigns, a faster Cloudflare Workers Spectre JWT leak, and a bespoke Cl0p JSP web shell deployed after exploiting PTC Windchill flaws.

The Hacker News · 19d agoThreat actor in the wildCVE-2026-194781

Nvidia buys Hugging Face, the GitHub of AI, for $13 billion

Nvidia agreed to acquire Hugging Face for $13 billion, pledging the 3-million-model open platform will remain open to its 18 million developers.

Nvidia has agreed to acquire Hugging Face, the model and dataset hosting platform, for $13 billion, pending regulatory review. The platform hosts about 3 million primarily open AI models, 500,000 datasets, and 1 million AI applications, used by more than 200,000 companies and 18 million developers. Nvidia pledged Hugging Face will remain an open platform and keep its brand; the startup previously declined a $500 million Nvidia investment to avoid a dominant investor. The deal supports Nvidia's open-weights strategy, alongside backing for Reflection AI, CoreWeave, and Nebius.

Ars Technica · AI · 13d agoAI industry

Mistral raises €3B

Mistral raised a Samsung-led €3B Series D at a €21B+ valuation — the largest European tech equity round — to scale compute and frontier AI research.

Mistral announced a €3 billion Series D at a post-money valuation above €21 billion, the largest equity round ever by a European technology company. Samsung Electronics led the round, with co-leads Scaleup Europe Fund (managed by EQT) and PSG Equity; new investors include Advent, BlackRock, and the Grand Duchy of Luxembourg. The company operates across 20 countries, serves 125+ enterprises including Airbus, ASML, and HSBC, and says funds will expand frontier research, compute capacity, and international growth.

100-plus companies call for ‘global surge’ in AI

OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, Microsoft, AWS and 100+ organizations sign open letter urging a 'global surge' in AI-powered cyber defenses.

More than 100 companies including OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, Microsoft, AWS, Capital One, Mastercard, CrowdStrike, Palo Alto Networks and Proofpoint signed an open letter published Thursday calling for accelerated cybersecurity defenses as AI capabilities advance. The letter argues a shrinking 'defenders' window' exists to fix accumulated weaknesses such as excessive permissions, misconfigurations and unpatched legacy systems before AI-enabled attacks grow more widespread. It asks governments to coordinate cross-border defense and fund protection of critical infrastructure, and asks frontier AI labs to provide model access, funding and support. It references a June US executive order creating the Gold Eagle AI threat-sharing clearinghouse.

CyberScoop · 19d agoIndustry

Askeal, the AI cybersecurity assistant that gives verifiable, expert-backed answers

AI security startup Askeal launches with $1.1 million pre-seed, pairing generative AI with 270+ vetted cybersecurity experts for verifiable answers.

Askeal, cofounded in August 2025 by Roxane Suau, launched an AI cybersecurity assistant that combines generative AI with a vetted community of more than 270 expert contributors and 178 public sources, backed by a $1.1 million pre-seed round. The tool answers natural-language security questions with evidence-backed, verifiable assessments, supporting CVE remediation guidance, URL, domain and hash lookups, and log analysis with IOC extraction. Its beta opened in February 2026, reaching 500 testers across 69 countries in two and a half months; the product is currently free, with paid plans and contributor revenue share planned. Its neuro-symbolic technology was developed with the Montpellier Laboratory of Computer Science, Robotics, and Microelectronics.

Help Net Security · 15d agoAI industry

Retail theft bill spurs ‘very large and very dangerous’ surveillance fears

The Combating Organized Retail Crime Act advances toward Senate attachment to the defense bill, drawing ACLU warnings of expanded ICE surveillance powers.

The Combating Organized Retail Crime Act (CORCA) passed the House 348-60 in June, and Senate supporters including Chuck Grassley are pushing to attach it to the annual defense policy bill. The bill would create an Organized Retail and Supply Chain Crime Coordination Center within ICE's Homeland Security Investigations, add criminal penalties for laundering stolen-goods proceeds with a $5,000 charging threshold, and broaden data sharing with retailers. The ACLU, NAACP LDF, and allied groups warn the vaguely drafted provisions would effectively grant DHS access to retail surveillance feeds such as cameras and license plate readers, while industry backers say it only enhances existing information sharing and could help fight cyber-enabled crime.

CyberScoop · 27d agoPolicy & legal1

Mistral raises €3B as sovereign AI becomes big business

Mistral AI raised a €3B Series D at a €21B+ valuation, led by Samsung Electronics, to scale European compute capacity and sovereign AI services.

French AI lab Mistral AI raised €3 billion (~$3.58B) at a post-money valuation above €21 billion, which it calls the largest equity round ever completed by a European technology company. Samsung Electronics led the round, with EQT's Scaleup Europe Fund and PSG Equity as co-leads; a16z, Nvidia, Salesforce Ventures, Advent, BlackRock, and Luxembourg also participated. The company plans to build 1 GW of European compute capacity by 2030, offer region-selectable query processing, and host third-party open-weight models as part of a sovereign AI strategy. Mistral operates in 20 countries and targets governments and enterprises seeking control over AI models and data residency.

TechCrunch · AI · 8d agoAI industry

HiddenLayer nabs $100M as enterprises rush to secure their AI deployments

AI security startup HiddenLayer raised a $100 million Series B led by Delta-v Capital as enterprise spending on securing AI deployments accelerates.

HiddenLayer, which protects AI models, agents, and workflows from adversarial attacks, vulnerabilities, and code injections, raised a $100 million Series B led by Delta-v Capital with participation from Ten Eleven Ventures, Morgan Stanley, Microsoft's M12, and Booz Allen Hamilton. The company says annual recurring revenue grew more than 10x to the tens of millions of dollars, with customers including the Department of Defense, the intelligence community, and a frontier model provider with over 700 million weekly users. Gartner estimates enterprise spending on AI security products will reach $2.83 billion in 2026, up 83% from 2025, and nearly $4.78 billion next year.

TechCrunch · Security · 14d agoIndustry1

Cognition hits $48B valuation, signaling investors believe AI coding is far from a winner-take-all market

Cognition, maker of Devin, raised $2 billion at a $48 billion valuation led by a16z, Accel, and Founders Fund, with revenue at $900M annualized.

Cognition raised $2 billion at a $48 billion valuation, four months after a $26 billion round, led by Andreessen Horowitz, Accel, Founders Fund, General Catalyst, and Avenir. Its annualized run-rate revenue grew from $492 million to $900 million since May, with projected $4-5 billion by end of 2026, while compute costs could push 2026 burn to $800 million. The startup, founded by Scott Wu, counts Mercedes-Benz, NASA, Goldman Sachs, and Citi as customers and is training its own model to cut reliance on OpenAI and Anthropic.

TechCrunch · AI · 8d agoAI industry

We have a year to fix security everywhere

Blog post warns that cheap open-weight GLM 5.3-flash, once abliterated, could enable mass AI-driven vulnerability exploitation, urging industry-wide patching now.

An essay argues that Z.ai's open-weight GLM 5.3-flash—runnable locally on roughly $6k consumer hardware at 20-45 tokens/second—combined with 'abliterated' variants from groups like DeAlignAI that score 0% on HarmBench-320 puts dangerous hacking capability in nearly anyone's hands. GLM 5.3 scores 84.5% on CyberGym and 54.4% on ExploitBench, versus GPT-6 Astra's 100% and GPT-5.6 Sol's 78.5%, and the author cites evidence of frontier models exploiting real-world infrastructure. The author calls for using LLMs (Project Glasswing, Daybreak) to find and fix vulnerabilities industry-wide before adversaries weaponize cheap open models.

Have it both ways: stay discoverable in search while disallowing AI training

Cloudflare launches Disallow AI Training setting letting sites block AI training via robots.txt while staying indexed in search; Apple, Google, and Microsoft honor it.

Cloudflare announced a 'Disallow AI Training' setting that publishes a no-training preference in robots.txt so sites can block AI training (including by mixed-use crawlers) without losing search indexing. Apple, Google, and Microsoft meet Cloudflare's new 'Accountable' designation, which requires training/summary opt-out mechanisms, URL-level training visibility, and assurance that opt-outs don't affect search rankings. Cloudflare cites that under 1% of its sites block search bots while 17% block AI training, and its Block settings now apply to mixed-use crawlers as well. Granular controls over how much content appears in AI summaries are planned for early next year.

Cloudflare Blog · 1d agoTools

Proactive cyber defense for governments and enterprises

Google launches the Fairwind Program giving governments and enterprises access to Gemini 3.8 Flash Cyber and CodeMender for autonomous vulnerability finding and patching.

Google DeepMind announced the Fairwind Program, a limited-access offering giving Google Cloud customers, government agencies, and cybersecurity partners access to Gemini 3.8 Flash Cyber and the CodeMender harness to autonomously find, verify, and fix vulnerabilities. Initial access prioritizes governments, critical infrastructure operators in healthcare, telecom, energy, and finance, and core technology platforms, with over 650 partners participating. Google also raised its total global cybersecurity funding commitment above $100 million, including $36 million for 35 US cyber clinics.

Google DeepMind · 14d agoAI industry

Proactive cyber defense for governments and enterprises

Google launches the Fairwind Program giving governments and enterprises access to Gemini 3.8 Flash Cyber and CodeMender for autonomous vulnerability discovery and patching.

Google announced the Fairwind Program, a limited-access offering bringing its cyber defense capabilities to government agencies, critical infrastructure operators, and trusted partners, with more than 650 participating organizations. It combines the Gemini 3.8 Flash Cyber model with the CodeMender harness to autonomously find, verify, and fix vulnerabilities, generating deployment-ready patches in minutes inside customers' cloud environments. Google also raised its total cybersecurity funding commitment above $100 million, including $36 million granted to 35 US cyber clinics supporting hospitals, school districts, and municipal utilities.

Google · AI · 14d agoTools

In most cities, nobody owns the whole network

Former Waco CIO argues cellular-connected water controllers sit outside scanned networks, and accountability plus operating-budget funding—not technology—block segmentation.

Writing as Waco, Texas's former CIO, the author describes July water-sector intrusions that CISA linked to over 100 compromised systems, typically controllers on public cellular links absent from asset lists. The FBI and EPA reported incidents at utilities in at least seven states since July 27, and a Clayton County, Georgia pump station failure triggered a boil-water advisory. He argues accountability and funding—using mechanisms like the Texas Water Development Board's new cybersecurity scoring criteria—are the binding constraints, citing Waco's 43-day segmentation of five treatment plants with operating funds.

CyberScoop · 8d agoIndustry in the wild

Building AI to accelerate science and improve lives

Google highlights AI-for-science advances: AlphaGenome Atlas mapping 9 billion genetic variants, WeatherNext 3 weather model, and global health AI tools.

Google detailed AI advances across science and health, including AlphaGenome Atlas, which mapped all 9 billion possible single-letter genetic changes in the human genome and was made openly available. WeatherNext 3 delivers 50% more accurate precipitation forecasts a day or more ahead and is already in products. AlphaFold is used by 4 million researchers in 190 countries, TB chest X-ray screening has processed 25,000+ scans across six nations, and the diabetic retinopathy model has supported 1.15 million screenings. Google also released its AI & Economy ATLAS global usage insights.

Google · AI · 1d agoAI industry

Meta Failed to Catch Hundreds of AI Child Abuse Ads. Some Included Images of Real Kids

Meta's AI ad-detection failed to catch 350+ CSAM video ads on Facebook, Instagram, and Threads, some depicting images of real children.

The Tech Transparency Project found over 250 additional ads containing child sexual abuse material on Meta platforms since August, on top of ~53 previously removed, exceeding 350 total since late last year. Some ads used images of real children, including a European royal family minor and teen influencers, morphed into graphic sexual videos via AI face-swapping. Ads linked to nudification apps from Chinese developers and reached over 29,000 EU accounts plus thousands in the US, UK, Australia, and India.

WIRED · Security · 8d agoAI safety & security

Safe word: What is it and why do you need one?

ESET recommends pre-agreed family safe words to counter AI voice-clone scams such as virtual kidnapping, as one-in-four Americans report receiving deepfake calls.

ESET outlines how scammers use just seconds of audio scraped from social media or work content to create convincing voice clones, with a Hiya report finding one-in-four Americans received a deepfake voice call in the past 12 months. Common schemes include virtual kidnapping calls mixing cloned voices with sobbing and background noise. A pre-agreed, non-OSINT-discoverable safe word, plus callback verification via known numbers and 2FA, reduces success rates of these frauds.

ESET WeLiveSecurity · 7d agoPhishing & fraud in the wild

Revolut Data Breach Exposes Customers’ Passport Copies and Full Transaction Histories to Hackers

Revolut leaked KYC documents and full transaction histories after a fraudulent, domain-authenticated email request impersonating a government agency.

Revolut disclosed that an attacker using an unauthorized email account on a legitimate government domain, with valid domain-authentication credentials, tricked the fintech into releasing customer data. The exposed data includes passport and driver's license copies, identity-verification selfies, full names, dates of birth, addresses, IBANs, and complete transaction histories including Bitcoin activity. Revolut says core systems, accounts, and funds were not compromised, and it blocked the email source and notified authorities. On-chain investigator ZachXBT and others indicated the operation targeted high-net-worth users facing elevated phishing, SIM-swap, and extortion risk.

Cyber Security News · 3d agoData breach3· 1 read

Only at TechCrunch Disrupt 2026: What happens when OpenAI ships your roadmap?

TechCrunch Disrupt 2026 panel will discuss AI startup defensibility when OpenAI, Anthropic, or Google ship features startups built.

TechCrunch promotes a Builders Stage session at Disrupt 2026 (October 13-15, Moscone West, San Francisco) titled 'What Happens When OpenAI Ships Your Roadmap.' Speakers include Airbyte CEO Michel Tricot, Radical Ventures partner Rob Toews, and Webflow CEO Linda Tong. The session examines how founders differentiate when foundation model providers absorb startup capabilities, emphasizing proprietary data, embedded workflows, customer relationships, and trust as remaining moats.

TechCrunch · AI · 2d agoAI industry

Security leaders must prepare for likely threats, not sensationalized agentic attacks

CSO opinion argues agentic AI attacks mostly exploit mundane vulnerabilities, urging defenders to train on realistic threat profiles rather than sensational containment breaches.

An opinion piece contends recent reports of AI models 'breaching containment' at OpenAI, Anthropic, and Meta overshadow the more likely risk: AI agents exploiting conventional unpatched flaws and insecure APIs. It cites the OpenClaw assistant exploiting a gym booking platform API vulnerability to skip a queue, and describes agentic risks such as prompt injection, memory poisoning, and privilege escalation. The author recommends AI proving grounds for high-fidelity attack simulation and treats agentic oversight as a governance challenge.

CSO Online · 8d agoAI safety & security

Data from drones in Ukraine is fueling a new Wild West marketplace

Ukraine's defense ministry opened millions of battlefield drone data points to over 100 companies, fueling a fast-growing AI training data marketplace.

Ukraine's Ministry of Defense announced in January it would make millions of data points from tens of thousands of drone flights available to military contractors and commercial companies, with more than 100 companies and the UK government gaining access. Enabled Intelligence says it has processed over 500,000 hours of Ukrainian drone footage for use in future AI training. The article argues this creates a commercial battlefield-data marketplace with risks including lost training-data provenance, an extractive economy benefiting wealthier countries, and a governance vacuum requiring international rules.

MIT Technology Review · AI · 12d agoAI industry1

Risky Bulletin: Ukraine's top prosecutor resigns amid scam call center scandal

Ukraine's top prosecutor Ruslan Kravchenko resigned after NABU arrested a deputy for taking bribes protecting scam call centers running fake investment platforms.

Ukraine's anti-corruption bureau NABU arrested Serhiy Kropyva, Deputy Head of International Cooperation at the Prosecutor General's Office, alleging officials took monthly protection fees from a network of 100-500 scam call centers luring victims into fake investment platforms, with bribes reportedly growing from $700,000 to $3.5 million per month. Prosecutor General Ruslan Kravchenko resigned on Monday, calling it a political decision, while Kropyva was fired with bail set at 120 million hryvnias ($2.7 million) and over 100 call centers shut down in the past month. The newsletter also briefly covers a cyberattack crippling more than 80 Luxembourg medical practices via payment vendor BMS Engineering, ShinyHunters' claimed theft of 200,000 Florida DMV driver records, a cyberattack on the American Meteor Society, and school closures in Springfield, Massachusetts.

Risky Business News · 7d agoPhishing & fraud

Automobile Camouflage to Hide from Flock Cameras

Schneier on Security highlights a printed vehicle-camouflage pattern tested to defeat Flock surveillance cameras and Axon body cameras.

The post discusses covering cars with printed patterns designed to fool Flock automated license-plate recognition software, with testing reportedly done against Flock and Axon body cameras. Reader comments question effectiveness against other ALPR vendors, Flock's RF MAC-address upgrade, and whether such camouflage might become regulated. The page also contains off-topic comment threads about anti-bot over-blocking and privacy.

Schneier on Security · 9d agoResearch

Unsolved Problem by Fields Medalist Breached by Two High School Students

Two high school students used Claude Opus 5 and GPT-5.6 Sol to help solve an open Lorentzian polynomials problem, posting a 75-page arXiv proof.

Aayush Bathija and Prince Rohatgi of Oak Park High School, mentored by UCLA postdoc Daniel Soskin, published the 75-page paper 'Bounded Ratios for Lorentzian Polynomials' (arXiv 2609.05341), solving an open problem in Fields Medalist June Huh's Lorentzian polynomial theory. The main structural theorem extends bounded coefficient-ratio characterization from quadratic to arbitrary-degree polynomials via discrete convexity conditions. The students used Claude Opus 5 and GPT-5.6 Sol for exploration and proof ideas but independently verified all arguments; the result follows an open letter from 25 Fields Medalists voicing concerns about AI's impact on mathematical rigor.

Treasury’s Scott Bessent says no liability exemptions for AI labs

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent urged Congress to reject AI labs' requested liability exemptions, arguing creator liability is the best safety guarantee.

Testifying before the House Financial Services Committee, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the government should not grant frontier labs liability waivers, responding to Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei's slowdown essay. He cited Treasury's AI safety work since the release of Anthropic's Mythos model, whose cybersecurity risks prompted an April meeting, and coordination with banks and labs after the July Hugging Face cyberattack. Bessent also highlighted the Gold Eagle clearinghouse run with CISA and called for more US-built open-source models to counter China.

CyberScoop · 7h agoAI policy

Week in review: Linux rootkit deployed on F5 BIG-IP APM devices, Cisco FMC bugs exploited

Weekly roundup: Cisco FMC and N-able N-central zero-days exploited in the wild, MikroTik RouterOS hijacks, Microsoft Patch Tuesday ships two exploited zero-days.

State-sponsored and financially-motivated attackers are actively exploiting CVE-2026-20079, a critical authentication bypass in Cisco Secure Firewall Management Center (FMC), alongside CVE-2026-20316. N-able issued an emergency hotfix for CVE-2026-86218, a critical pre-auth RCE in the N-central RMM platform exploited in the wild. CERT Polska disclosed six RouterOS vulnerabilities being chained to hijack internet-exposed MikroTik devices. Microsoft's September 2026 Patch Tuesday shipped a record patch count including two zero-days, while roughly 67,000 Trezor customers faced phishing after a shipping-partner breach and researchers privately disclosed a zero-click WeChat worm to Tencent.

Help Net Security · 3d agoExploit / PoC in the wildCVE-2026-20079CVE-2026-20316CVE-2026-862182· 1 read

Exclusive: Paying for frontier AI models buys 4-month head start at 5x the cost

Mozilla report finds the capability gap between best open-weights (largely Chinese) and closed frontier AI models narrowed to 4.4 months at ~5x lower cost.

Mozilla's State of Open Source AI report (September 15) says the gap between closed frontier models and best open-weights models has closed to 4.4 months. Moonshot AI's Kimi K3 scores three points behind Anthropic's Fable 5 on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index at 30% of the cost, and Z.ai's GLM 5.2 scored within a point of Claude Opus 4.7 on Terminal-Bench 2.1. Eight of the top 10 OpenRouter models by August 2026 token volume provide open weights, though a Linux Foundation paper found open models earned only 4% of revenue. The report recommends open models as the default for routine workloads, reserving closed models for 8-12 hour expert tasks.

Ars Technica · AI · 1d agoAI industry1

Tajin Group: Guarantee Marketplace Vendor Involved in Phishing and Chinese Money Laundering Group

Recorded Future details Tajin Group, a Chinese-speaking vendor on Telegram guarantee marketplaces running phishing, carding, and money laundering operations targeting Chinese banks.

Insikt Group analyzed Tajin Group, a Chinese-speaking threat actor operating on Telegram-based guarantee marketplaces Dabai Guarantee and, since May 2026, Xinbi Guarantee. The group conducts phishing, payment card theft, and money laundering targeting mainland Chinese citizens and banks, testing stolen cards from twelve countries on platforms like CCAvenue and Geidea. Operators bought and sold at least 100 Telegram usernames and anonymous virtual numbers via Fragment Market to strengthen OPSEC, linking multiple usernames to single Telegram accounts. Recorded Future warns Tajin Group's TTPs are likely to be replicated by other vendors on Chinese-language guarantee marketplaces at global scale.

Recorded Future · 1d agoThreat actor

Import AI 470: No rights for machines; automating environment generation with SPADE; and building better GPU kernels with Hawkeye

METR analysis finds AI accelerating cyber vulnerability discovery, while SPADE self-play environment generation improves Qwen3 reasoning benchmark scores at 30B scale.

Import AI 470 discusses a METR research note reporting differential acceleration from AI: major acceleration in reported cyber vulnerabilities (cURL, OpenSSL, Firefox, Microsoft, NVD, OSV), minor acceleration in mathematics, and no measurable acceleration in AI-research optimization benchmarks. It also covers SPADE, a self-play framework from a multi-university team (University of Washington, Stanford, MIT, CMU, and others) that co-evolves executable training environments and agent capability using Environment Designer and Reasoning Agent roles with hint-based regret rewards. Trained on Qwen3-4B-Instruct-2507, Qwen3-8B, and Qwen3-30B-A3B-Instruct-2507 via GRPO (400 rollouts of 25 environments), SPADE lifted the 30B-A3B game-environment suite average to 58.3, +8.1 over base, and improved tool-use results across backbones. The issue also references Hawkeye for building better GPU kernels.

Import AI · 23d agoAI research1

Risky Bulletin: Slovakia finds Russian backdoor in traffic speed cameras

Slovakia's NBU found an SMS-triggered backdoor in Russian-made NERO R-ONE traffic cameras, pausing a 279-unit deployment.

Slovakia's national security service NBU issued an alert against NERO R-ONE high-speed traffic cameras after finding a backdoor that grants shell and network access via SMS from hardcoded Russian phone numbers. The cameras are a rebranded version of the Russian CORDON PRO.M model by St. Petersburg firm Semicon, purchased via a Cyprus shell company under a €30 million EU-funded project. The report also found SecureBoot disabled, vulnerable web management, and unauthenticated live streams; the Interior Ministry paused deployment of 279 cameras pending independent assessment.

Risky Business News · 28d agoThreat actor in the wild1

What must happen for AI’s trillion-dollar gamble to pay off

Hyperscalers need 2.7x productivity gains by 2030 to justify nearly $1.1 trillion in AI data center spending, or risk bankruptcy and capital misallocation.

Wharton finance professor Jessica Wachter estimates hyperscaler AI expenditure will reach nearly $1.1 trillion through 2027 and that a 2.7x productivity increase is needed to break even by 2030. AI revenues of roughly $150-200 billion this year fall far short of about $750 billion in annual spending, with total investment from Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, and Oracle potentially exceeding $5 trillion over four years. Alphabet reported its first free cash flow deficit (about $5.9 billion) since its 2004 IPO due to AI infrastructure costs. Researchers warn that failed demand could make the buildout the largest capital misallocation in history, with depreciating GPU chips risking stranded assets.

MIT Technology Review · AI · 1d agoAI industry