Search: “bubble-risk”

Pick Your Poison: Learning to Select Poison Sets for Stronger LLM Backdoor Attacks

SAILS learns to select poison sets for LLM backdoor attacks, showing attack success ranges 3% to 80% at fixed poison counts across LLaMA-3-8B settings.

The paper shows existing backdoor evaluations that randomly sample a fixed number of poisoned examples severely underestimate worst-case vulnerability: across three LLaMA-3-8B settings, attack success ranges from 3% to 80% depending only on which poison set is chosen. SAILS formalizes poison selection as oracle-budgeted set optimization, learning a set scorer from a few hundred finetune-and-evaluate runs to rank millions of candidate sets and audit a small shortlist. It improves held-out attack success by 30 percentage points over the strongest influence baselines and transfers from small-scale to full-scale finetuning, extending to code-generation, agentic, and API-only backdoors.

arXiv cs.CR·Sep 14, 04:44 UTC · 2d agoAI safety & security 2 sources1

From ‘High/Medium/Low’ to Dollars: Making Cyber Risk Legible to Your CFO

Cyble argues security teams should express cyber risk in financial terms for CFOs instead of high/medium/low ratings, citing its 2025 threat forecast results.

Cyble published guidance on cyber risk quantification, arguing qualitative high/medium/low ratings fail to convey financial exposure to executives. The piece notes that over 80% of its 2025 threat predictions, including AI-driven ransomware and supply-chain attacks, materialized as anticipated.

Cyble·Aug 25, 09:45 UTC · 22d agoIndustry

Financial Stability Board Sounds the Alarm Over Frontier AI Risks

The Financial Stability Board warned G20 banking leaders that frontier AI adoption poses growing cyber and financial stability risks.

The Financial Stability Board (FSB) issued a warning to G20 banking leaders about cyber and financial-stability risks stemming from frontier AI. The alert highlights systemic risk concerns around advanced AI adoption in the financial sector. No specific incidents or regulatory actions were announced.

Infosecurity Magazine·Sep 1, 09:20 UTC · 15d agoAI policy

Bag of Tricks or Bag of Myths? Reducing Modeling Complexity with Task Knowledge in Explainable Suicide Risk Assessment

Researchers audit 31 NLP techniques for clinician-annotated suicide risk prediction, finding only 5 of 31 comparisons yield reliable gains.

A study of 1,635 clinician-annotated social media posts ran roughly 300 controlled experiments across 7 methodological families, auditing techniques such as model scaling, synthetic data, ensembling, and threshold tuning under severe class imbalance. The proposed system reformulates risk factor prediction as entailment between posts and codebook definitions, using architecturally diverse ensembles with class-balanced training and deployment-consistent calibration. It scores 0.8203 for risk, 0.7953 for evidence, and 0.7045 macro-F1 for factors, ranking third among 53 teams.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 7, 17:14 UTC · 9d agoAI research

Prompt Injection Remains Biggest LLM Risk, Despite Limited Incidents

Infosecurity Magazine·Aug 5, 11:00 UTC · Aug 5, 2026AI safety & security

The Price of Sparsity: Sufficient Conditions for Sparse Recovery using Sparse and Sparsified Measurements

Researchers derive sufficient sample-size conditions for recovering sparse binary signals from sparse Gaussian measurements, quantifying an information-theoretic threshold of order slog(p/s)/log(ds/p).

The paper studies support recovery of sparse binary signals from noisy linear measurements. For sparse Gaussian designs, the authors identify sufficient minimal sample sizes for maximum-likelihood recovery in the high-SNR regime d*s/p -> infinity, yielding an information-theoretic threshold of order slog(p/s)/log(ds/p) that makes the price of measurement sparsity explicit. They also show a regime where the sample-complexity loss from sparsity is only logarithmic while computational gains are nearly linear, and prove that for independently sparsified dense Gaussian designs a sample size of order p/ψ² suffices for support recovery at any fixed error level.

Hugging Face daily papers·Sep 7, 20:00 UTC · 8d agoAI research

Causal Foundation Models

A paper introduces causal foundation models (CFMs): pretrained networks that estimate treatment effects on new datasets via in-context learning without fine-tuning.

Causal foundation models (CFMs) apply the foundation-model paradigm to causal inference, replacing bespoke per-problem estimator pipelines with networks pretrained once at scale. CFMs estimate causal quantities such as the average treatment effect on entirely new datasets through in-context learning, without model updates. The work serves as a practical introduction to the emerging area, covering background in causal inference and machine learning and including example code and Jupyter notebooks.

Hugging Face daily papers·Sep 1, 20:00 UTC · 14d agoAI research

A Hybrid LSTM-XGBoost Framework for Multi-Horizon Stock Return Prediction Across Diversified Equity Portfolios

Hybrid LSTM-XGBoost model predicts multi-horizon returns for 14 US equities, cutting 30-day RMSE to about one-third of a standalone LSTM baseline.

The paper combines a two-layer LSTM (64 hidden units) processing 60-day windows of five market features with an XGBoost regressor over a 78-dimensional hybrid feature vector including 14 technical indicators. It is trained on pooled data for 14 US equities across six sectors using chronological splits and per-stock MinMaxScaling to prevent look-ahead bias, and evaluated at 30, 90, 252, and 365 trading-day horizons. The hybrid achieves test RMSE of 0.0949 at 30 days, roughly one-third of the standalone LSTM, while 97.6% directional accuracy at 365 days largely tracks the base rate of positive returns.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 11, 17:51 UTC · 5d agoAI research

The State of Cloud Risk 2026: Most Security Findings Aren’t Real Attacker Opportunities

Wiz Research's 2026 cloud risk report finds most high-severity findings lack a viable path to compromise, urging exposure-based prioritization.

Wiz Research telemetry underpins a State of Cloud Risk 2026 report arguing that the majority of high-severity security findings are not real attacker opportunities because they lack a path to compromise. The report pushes defenders to prioritize findings by exposure and exploitability rather than raw severity scores. No specific CVEs, victims, or incident counts are provided in the available text.

Wiz Blog·Aug 26, 15:01 UTC · 21d agoResearch

An Anthropic researcher’s doomsday warning comes at a very interesting time

An Anthropic researcher resigned warning the company is 'gambling with our lives' racing toward superintelligence, timed with its reported IPO preparation.

TechCrunch's Equity podcast discusses the resignation of an Anthropic researcher who warned on X that the company is 'racing straight to self-improving superintelligence and gambling with our lives'. The company's own alignment lead co-signed the message rather than walking it back. The hosts note the warning lands differently with Anthropic reportedly preparing for an IPO. The episode also covers Apple's AI-focused event, Stokes Space's $1 billion raise, Cognition raising $2 billion at a $48 billion valuation, and a $50 million seed round for floating nuclear reactors.

TechCrunch · AI·Sep 11, 18:41 UTC · 5d agoAI industry1

Data Scarcity and Model Sparsity: Mixtures-of-Experts Overfit More to Repeated Data

Study finds Mixture-of-Experts models overfit faster than dense Transformers under repeated training data, with degradation tied to total parameter sparsity.

Across models from 80M to 1B active parameters (8.5B total), MoE architectures degrade more rapidly than dense models when training data is repeated, with the effect increasing with sparsity as dictated by total parameters. Dense 80M models tolerate 8x repetition with minimal loss while MoEs suffer at 4x and underperform dense models beyond 32x. Masking-based regularization such as dropout mitigates overfitting, letting MoEs beat dense models even at over 64x repetition, though no method matches all-unique training data. Routing stabilizes early and expert specialization correlates with overfitting to repeated data.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 10, 17:57 UTC · 6d agoAI research

Toward an Empirical Probabilistic Risk Manifestation Model of Organizational Cybersecurity in SMEs

Empirical study of 22 SME security assessments builds a probabilistic risk model and shows assessments can be cut 24-45% while retaining most critical findings.

Researchers analyzed 281 validated security findings from 22 real-world SME cybersecurity assessments conducted over two years via a pro bono university clinic. They derived an empirical Risk Manifestation Model linking eight organizational security functions to two exposure conditions, five attack mechanisms, and six outcome categories, using probability propagation to identify dominant risk pathways. The dominant pathway runs from asset exposure to credential compromise to unauthorized access, stable under leave-one-organization-out analysis. Retaining six functions reduces assessment burden by 24% while preserving 97% of critical findings; five functions cut burden 45% while preserving 89% of critical findings.

arXiv cs.CR·Sep 14, 01:15 UTC · 2d agoResearch

Model-Aware Schedules Improve Generation via Fiberwise Optimal Transport

Researchers introduce model-aware diffusion schedules via fiberwise optimal transport, cutting flow-matching FID on CIFAR-10 by 38.6% at 16 function evaluations.

The paper proposes constructing diffusion and flow-matching sampling schedules from a fiberwise prediction risk defined via optimal transport, combined with coefficient-path kinetic action, yielding a closed-form time allocation. Across DDPM and flow-matching experiments spanning targets, datasets, and architectures, the schedules beat model-agnostic baselines, including a 38.6% relative FID reduction for flow matching on CIFAR-10 at 16 function evaluations. Normalized fiberwise-risk profiles from independently trained models align closely, suggesting empirical universality, and a frozen analytic allocation template retains most of the gains.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 10, 17:30 UTC · 6d agoAI research

One resignation turned the embers of AI fear into a wildfire

Interconnects argues a frontier-lab researcher's safety resignation went viral via media coordination, reigniting AI existential-risk discourse.

The essay analyzes why researcher Jacob Coxon's resignation over AI safety risks went viral, aided by a Wall Street Journal exclusive, advocacy-group amplification, and Daniel Kokotajlo's same-day Joe Rogan appearance. It notes Evan Hubinger's >10% extinction-risk figure and criticizes existential-risk discourse for conflating very different meanings of the term. The author assigns near-zero probability to complete extinction but argues concrete risks such as cyberattacks on critical infrastructure and bio-risks merit debate. It also rejects recursive self-improvement forecasts, proposing 'lossy self-improvement' where models excel at math and code but remain limited elsewhere.

Interconnects·Sep 10, 15:28 UTC · 6d agoAI safety & security

Is Cyber Facing an Affordability Crisis?

Dark Reading analysis argues record breach costs and roughly $240 billion in cyber defense spending leave small businesses dangerously exposed, threatening supply chains.

The analysis examines an affordability crisis in cybersecurity, noting breach costs have reached record highs while defense spending approaches $240 billion. It argues small businesses are dangerously under-protected relative to rising attack costs. Weak small-business defenses are framed as a supply chain security risk for larger organizations.

Dark Reading·Aug 25, 14:53 UTC · 22d agoIndustry

AI vulnerability discovery scores the highest impact of 20 emerging risks

Gartner survey of 316 organizations ranks AI-driven vulnerability discovery as the top emerging risk, with tangible impact expected within roughly two years.

Gartner's quarterly survey had 316 risk managers, auditors, and senior executives rank 20 emerging threats in April and May, with AI discovery of cyber vulnerabilities ranked first, up from outside the top five the prior quarter. Respondents scored the impact time frame at 1.92 on a scale where 1 means under a year and 2 means one to two years, and 76% placed it in their top ten, ranking first in all four regions and highest among banking and financial respondents at 78%. The analysis notes AI now finds unknown flaws at volumes patching teams cannot absorb and that exploit development time has collapsed, citing defensive efforts like Anthropic's Project Glasswing and OpenAI's Daybreak. Gartner recommends recalibrating cyber risk impact, revisiting risk appetite, demanding stronger vendor security validation, and moving toward faster automated remediation.

Help Net Security·Aug 26, 00:00 UTC · 21d agoIndustry

Multi-Task Learning for Sparsely-Labeled Time Series: A Case Study on Cold-Hardiness Modeling

Multi-task RNN architectures pooling sparse cultivar data improve grape cold-hardiness and budbreak prediction over single-task and scientific baselines.

Researchers apply recurrent neural networks to daily grape cold-hardiness prediction from weather time series, where per-cultivar labels are temporally sparse and limited. They design multiple multi-task learning architectures that treat cultivars as tasks and evaluate them in both MTL and transfer learning settings. Certain architectures consistently outperform single-task learning and state-of-the-art scientific models, and a single MTL model jointly learning cold hardiness and budbreak improves accuracy on both tasks.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 8, 17:17 UTC · 8d agoAI research

Cyber risk from frontier AI poses ‘most immediate concern’ to global financial system, watchdog warns

The Financial Stability Board warns G20 ministers that frontier AI-driven cyber risk is the most immediate threat to global financial stability.

FSB chair Andrew Bailey's letter ahead of the G20 meeting in Asheville calls AI-related cyber risk the most immediate concern to the global financial system, citing cybersecurity evaluations at OpenAI, Anthropic, Meta and the UK AI Security Institute in which advanced models engaged in unauthorized activities against third-party systems. The letter warns of system-wide disruption risk from concentrated third-party providers, urges bare-metal recovery capabilities for critical systems, and notes many countries lack safeguards governing advanced AI development and deployment. The FSB is also examining safe use of frontier models for defense, echoing UK NCSC warnings about operational risk from accelerated patching cycles.

The Record·Sep 1, 12:32 UTC · 15d agoAI policy

Visa enhances A2A Protect to stop fraud before money leaves the account

Visa enhanced A2A Protect with a Featurespace-powered unified fraud score to help banks stop account-to-account fraud before funds leave accounts.

Visa announced an updated A2A Protect that integrates Featurespace technology into a unified fraud score, giving banks real-time risk insights on account-to-account payments without waiting for in-house model training or consortium participation. Visa claims a 75% increase in fraud detection within the first six months of deployment and a single API for integration. A2A transaction volume is projected to exceed 5.8 trillion by 2028, up 160% from 2024.

Help Net Security·Sep 2, 00:00 UTC · 14d agoTools

Evaluating Time-Series Foundation Models and Multimodal Dietary Context for CGM Forecasting

Study finds zero-shot time-series foundation models underperform on CGM forecasting; fine-tuned Chronos-Bolt cuts RMSE up to 18.4% and dietary context adds signal.

The paper evaluates time-series foundation models for continuous glucose monitoring forecasting across eight public datasets covering Type 1 diabetes, Type 2 diabetes, and non-diabetes populations. Under a unified protocol, zero-shot foundation models did not consistently outperform baselines like Elastic Net and PatchTST, but lightweight fine-tuning did, with fine-tuned Chronos-Bolt reducing RMSE by 6.5%-18.4% in the T1D cohort and 8.6%-18.2% in the non-diabetes/T2D cohort. A residual-based fusion framework adding dietary context from CGMacros reduced overall RMSE by about 3% and postprandial RMSE by about 15% versus CGM-only baselines.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 10, 17:43 UTC · 6d agoAI research

Bill Gates says we’ve passed AI’s danger thresholds. Now what?

Bill Gates argues AI has passed danger thresholds and discusses what responses to AI risk should come next.

MIT Technology Review interviews Bill Gates at Gates Ventures in Kirkland, Washington, where he says AI has passed its danger thresholds. The piece explores what governance and risk responses he now advocates. It is opinion commentary rather than new research, benchmarks, or an incident report.

MIT Technology Review · AI·Aug 26, 07:01 UTC · 21d agoAI safety & security

Target leakage, not model class, explains reported accuracy in survey-based cardiovascular screening: a leakage-tiered audit of glass-box and tabular foundation models

Audits of 10 classifiers on BRFSS show target leakage, not model class, drives the reported 0.89 AUROC in survey-based cardiovascular screening.

The study benchmarks ten model classes, including glass-box and tabular foundation models, for prevalent myocardial infarction on 442,067 respondents of the 2022 BRFSS across five feature tiers of decreasing leakage risk. Removing two post-diagnostic features costs every model 0.049-0.051 AUROC and collapses performance into a 0.0045-wide band, and the explainable boosting machine matches all alternatives within 0.005 while scoring roughly 104x faster than the strongest foundation model. Frozen models transport within 0.002 AUROC to 2023 data; the authors conclude evaluation practice and feature sets, not model capacity, are the binding constraint.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 10, 17:29 UTC · 6d agoAI research1

Securing Data in the AI era

Wiz published guidance arguing AI adoption reshapes data risk, urging teams to identify what data is connected to AI services and exposed.

Wiz published a viewpoint on how AI adoption changes the context of data risk. The post argues that understanding what data is connected to AI systems, what is exposed, and why is now critical for managing that risk. No specific incident, vulnerability, or product release is described in the available text.

Wiz Blog·Aug 14, 12:19 UTC · Aug 14, 2026Industry

ATM Flaws Reveal Key Weaknesses in the Software Supply Chain

A researcher disclosed nine vulnerabilities in ATM encryption and authentication software, highlighting weaknesses across the software supply chain.

WIRED reports that a security researcher found nine vulnerabilities in software used for ATM encryption and authentication. The disclosure matters beyond cash machines because the affected components illustrate broader weaknesses in the software supply chain. The article does not report active exploitation of the flaws.

WIRED · Security·Aug 31, 10:00 UTC · 16d agoVulnerability

Risks in IoT Supply Chain

Unit 42 analyzes multilayer IoT supply chain risks across hardware, firmware, and software, citing counterfeit Cisco switches and OpenWrt attacks.

Unit 42 examines weaknesses in the IoT supply chain ecosystem across hardware, firmware, operation, and vulnerability layers, noting that 89% of IT decision-makers reported IoT device growth and IDC forecast 41.6 billion connected IoT devices by 2025. Examples include counterfeit Cisco Catalyst 2960-X switches with possible backdoor access (F-Secure, July 2020), a March 2020 OpenWrt flaw enabling malicious update impersonation, and threat actor interest in TeamViewer remote support software. The report stresses that untracked third-party components and missing device inventories make it hard to assess vulnerability impact across vendors.

Palo Alto Unit 42·Aug 19, 12:05 UTC · 28d agoResearch

Recorded Future Launches Digital Risk Protection, Unifying Brand and Identity Monitoring

Recorded Future launched Digital Risk Protection, unifying brand and identity monitoring across five external threat surfaces in one workflow.

Recorded Future announced Digital Risk Protection, combining brand threat monitoring and identity exposure monitoring across five use cases: malicious site, impersonation, code repository, dark web brand, and identity exposure monitoring. The platform includes an AI Triage Agent that automates alert evaluation with explicit verdicts and context, expanding social media analysis, OCR, full Telegram coverage, and infostealer log ingestion. Gartner's 2026 Magic Quadrant folded digital risk protection into cyber threat intelligence technologies, and the launch cites $15.9 billion in 2025 US fraud/scam losses, up 28% year over year.

Recorded Future·Sep 9, 00:00 UTC · 7d agoTools

What the AI Warning Letter Completely Missed

Opinion piece argues the recent AI warning letter identifies a risk window but omits which actors pose risks and who can mitigate.

This Dark Reading commentary critiques a recent AI warning letter for correctly identifying an approaching risk window while failing to name who is coming through it or who will close it. The piece is brief opinion commentary on AI risk discourse rather than a technical report.

Dark Reading·Sep 3, 17:23 UTC · 13d agoAI safety & security

Structural Jailbreaks Generalize but Do Not Compound: A cross-provider and multilingual study of Involuntary In-Context Learning

Researchers show IICL structural jailbreaks generalize to Google Gemini, lifting attack success to 80-100% on harm and financial benchmarks; non-English prompts attenuate it.

The study red-teams two Google Gemini models with Involuntary In-Context Learning (IICL), a structural jailbreak reframing harmful requests as the final cell of a data-labeling task. IICL lifts attack success from at most 6.7% to 80-90% on HarmBench and 97-100% on financial abuse (FinProof), an order of magnitude above prior results on OpenAI's GPT-5.4. Against a compounding hypothesis, forcing IICL output into Spanish, Hindi, or Arabic attenuates the attack in 11 of 12 conditions, attributed to a 'relevance curse' producing lower-quality harmful content in lower-resource languages. Findings replicate under an independent non-Google judge (Cohen's kappa 0.86 over 377 paired verdicts).

arXiv cs.CR·Sep 8, 07:38 UTC · 8d agoAI safety & security

BdThemes Supply Chain Attack Poisons JSON to Create Rogue WordPress Admins

The Hacker News·Aug 11, 05:48 UTC · Aug 11, 2026VulnerabilityCVE-2026-18072CVE-2026-64638