Search: “quantitative-finance”

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A Hybrid LSTM-XGBoost Framework for Multi-Horizon Stock Return Prediction Across Diversified Equity Portfolios

Hybrid LSTM-XGBoost model predicts multi-horizon returns for 14 US equities, cutting 30-day RMSE to about one-third of a standalone LSTM baseline.

The paper combines a two-layer LSTM (64 hidden units) processing 60-day windows of five market features with an XGBoost regressor over a 78-dimensional hybrid feature vector including 14 technical indicators. It is trained on pooled data for 14 US equities across six sectors using chronological splits and per-stock MinMaxScaling to prevent look-ahead bias, and evaluated at 30, 90, 252, and 365 trading-day horizons. The hybrid achieves test RMSE of 0.0949 at 30 days, roughly one-third of the standalone LSTM, while 97.6% directional accuracy at 365 days largely tracks the base rate of positive returns.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 11, 17:51 UTC · 5d agoAI research

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E2A-Bench: Benchmarking Evidence-to-Action Reliability in Financial Chart Reasoning

E2A-Bench, a 969-query financial chart reasoning benchmark, finds VLMs fail evidence-to-action consistency, with fine-tuning amplifying BUY:SELL bias 4-6x.

E2A-Bench is a 969-query benchmark built from 323 HS300 constituents across three input modalities with deterministic OHLCV-derived evidence anchors, evaluating grounding, reasoning-action consistency, evidence-confidence calibration, and directional coverage via UCR, RCI, ECI, and NDR metrics. Testing 20 VLMs showed the lowest-hallucination model ranked near the bottom on coverage with only 6.4% directional coverage, and oracle-aided verification reduced unsupported claims but could collapse coverage. Financial fine-tuning amplified the BUY:SELL ratio by factors of 4.21 to 4.68 across base-fine-tuned pairs.

Hugging Face daily papers·Sep 12, 20:00 UTC · 4d agoAI research

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Benchmarking Qwen3.8 27B quantizations: 4-bit holds up, 1-bit collapses

Quesma benchmarks Qwen3.8 27B quantizations: 4-bit Q4_K_M matches BF16 on key benchmarks while 1-bit collapses to random chance.

Quesma spent roughly $3,000 on Modal GPUs testing Unsloth GGUF quantizations of Qwen3.8 27B across GPQA Diamond, IFBench, and Terminal-Bench 2.1. The 17 GB Q4_K_M quantization matched the 55 GB BF16 model on Terminal-Bench 2.1 and showed little degradation down to 4-bit, while the 2-bit UD-Q2_K_XL dropped noticeably. At 1-bit, scores on GPQA Diamond fell to random-guess levels, with longer reasoning making results worse, and reasoning effort settings significantly affected outcomes.

Hacker News · AI·Sep 8, 14:49 UTC · 8d agoAI researchHN 56↑ · 30 comments1

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Model ML completes finance work more efficiently with GPT-5.6 Sol

OpenAI customer Model ML uses GPT-5.6 Sol to turn finance research into editable, traceable decks and workbooks.

OpenAI published a customer story describing how Model ML uses GPT-5.6 Sol for finance work. The model carries tasks from research and analysis through to editable, traceable PowerPoint decks and Excel workbooks. This is a product adoption case rather than a new model release.

OpenAI News·Aug 10, 12:00 UTC · Aug 10, 2026AI industry

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HyQuant: Hybrid-Precision Quantization for LLM Attention

HyQuant keeps most LLM attention states low-bit while preserving vertical-line tokens and local windows in high precision, maintaining near-lossless accuracy.

HyQuant is a hybrid-precision quantization framework for LLM attention that quantizes most attention states to low bits while keeping accuracy-critical vertical-line tokens and local-window states in full precision, selected via lightweight attention-pattern signals. In the prefill stage it uses a hybrid-precision attention operator, and in the decode stage it applies the same principle to KV-cache compression with fused dequantization and attention computation. Across diverse tasks, models, and datasets it maintains nearly lossless accuracy; code is available on GitHub.

Hugging Face daily papers·Aug 27, 20:00 UTC · 20d agoAI tools & infra1

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From ‘High/Medium/Low’ to Dollars: Making Cyber Risk Legible to Your CFO

Cyble argues security teams should express cyber risk in financial terms for CFOs instead of high/medium/low ratings, citing its 2025 threat forecast results.

Cyble published guidance on cyber risk quantification, arguing qualitative high/medium/low ratings fail to convey financial exposure to executives. The piece notes that over 80% of its 2025 threat predictions, including AI-driven ransomware and supply-chain attacks, materialized as anticipated.

Cyble·Aug 25, 09:45 UTC · 22d agoIndustry

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What building an AI-native finance function taught me

OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar shares five lessons from building an AI-native finance function, covering forecasting, controls, and AI ROI.

OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar outlines five lessons learned from building an AI-native finance function at the company. Topics include automated forecasting, stronger financial controls, and measuring AI return on investment. The piece is a first-person account of enterprise AI adoption within a finance organization rather than a product or research announcement.

OpenAI News·Aug 10, 17:00 UTC · Aug 10, 2026AI industry

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Attention Quantization for Tabular Foundation Models

FP8 quantization of attention queries, keys, and values speeds tabular foundation model inference up to 1.7x with no accuracy loss.

The paper develops an FP8 quantization strategy targeting attention calculations (queries, keys, values) in tabular foundation models, arguing attention matters more than weight or KV cache quantization given their differing size and serving patterns versus LLMs. Aligning quantization error between test rows and training rows proves crucial, since misalignment causes drastic accuracy drops. A Triton kernel using explicit FP8 matrix multiplication achieves up to 1.7x speedup over regular 16-bit kernels, with no relevant accuracy loss on TabPFN-v3 and TabICLv2 across TabArena and BeyondArena benchmarks.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 11, 16:31 UTC · 5d agoAI research1

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Quantum Feature Engineering for Credit Default Prediction: When and Why IQP Circuits Help Linear Classifiers

Quantum IQP circuit features lift logistic-regression credit-default F1 from 0.462 to 0.517, beating Kernel PCA at an equal feature budget.

Using the UCI Default of Credit Card Clients dataset and five-fold cross-validation, an 8-qubit IQP circuit adds 16 features that raise Logistic Regression F1 from 0.462 to 0.517 (+0.055, p < 0.0001). Kernel PCA, the best classical non-linear alternative, reaches only 0.493 at the same feature count, with the gap surviving Benjamini-Hochberg correction across 12 tests (p = 0.00007). Only the linear classifier benefits, pointing to a linear-expressivity mechanism. Feature selection matters: Random Forest importance-guided selection reaches F1 = 0.523 while maximally uncorrelated features drop to 0.496.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 9, 17:41 UTC · 7d agoAI research

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Cadence: Error-Bounded Lossy Compression of Demand Time Series with a Time-Series Foundation Model

Cadence pairs Google's 330M-parameter TimesFM-3 foundation model with adaptive arithmetic coding, gaining 13-28% on 2026 demand series over classical predictors.

Cadence is an error-bounded lossy compressor for numeric time series combining the 330M-parameter Google TimesFM-3 foundation model with an adaptive arithmetic coder, guaranteeing a per-sample error bound. On 49 EIA-930 balancing-authority demand series from 2026 it gains 13.3% over the best of six classical predictors and 28.3% on 50 MTA ridership series, winning all 297 series-tolerance pairs with a 21.4% median gain. The paper also reports negative results, including that foundation models add negligible value for lossless coding and that PyTorch predictions are not bit-identical across batch sizes.

Hugging Face daily papers·Sep 4, 20:00 UTC · 12d agoAI research1

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Causal Foundation Models

A paper introduces causal foundation models (CFMs): pretrained networks that estimate treatment effects on new datasets via in-context learning without fine-tuning.

Causal foundation models (CFMs) apply the foundation-model paradigm to causal inference, replacing bespoke per-problem estimator pipelines with networks pretrained once at scale. CFMs estimate causal quantities such as the average treatment effect on entirely new datasets through in-context learning, without model updates. The work serves as a practical introduction to the emerging area, covering background in causal inference and machine learning and including example code and Jupyter notebooks.

Hugging Face daily papers·Sep 1, 20:00 UTC · 15d agoAI research

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Google's new AI model predicts the future from sales data, weather, and discount schedules

Google Research released TimesFM-3, a 330M-parameter multivariate time series forecasting model that tops Gift-Eval, FEV-Bench, and Time benchmarks and is on Hugging Face.

Google Research released TimesFM-3, a 330-million-parameter Transformer-based time series forecasting model trained on more than one trillion real and synthetic data points. It works zero-shot and adds multivariate support, ingesting related series, historical-only covariates, and known future events such as discount schedules and weather forecasts, while filling all future time steps in a single one-shot pass. Google reports first place among pretrained forecasting models on Gift-Eval, FEV-Bench, and Time, ahead of Amazon's Chronos-2, the Toto-2.0 family, and its own TimesFM-2.5. Weights are available on GitHub and Hugging Face, with BigQuery integration planned in the coming weeks.

The Decoder·Sep 12, 09:26 UTC · 4d agoModel release2

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Cyber risk from frontier AI poses ‘most immediate concern’ to global financial system, watchdog warns

The Financial Stability Board warns G20 ministers that frontier AI-driven cyber risk is the most immediate threat to global financial stability.

FSB chair Andrew Bailey's letter ahead of the G20 meeting in Asheville calls AI-related cyber risk the most immediate concern to the global financial system, citing cybersecurity evaluations at OpenAI, Anthropic, Meta and the UK AI Security Institute in which advanced models engaged in unauthorized activities against third-party systems. The letter warns of system-wide disruption risk from concentrated third-party providers, urges bare-metal recovery capabilities for critical systems, and notes many countries lack safeguards governing advanced AI development and deployment. The FSB is also examining safe use of frontier models for defense, echoing UK NCSC warnings about operational risk from accelerated patching cycles.

The Record·Sep 1, 12:32 UTC · 15d agoAI policy

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Distill Globally, Adapt Locally: Reasoning Distillation and Product-Type Test-Time Training for Scalable Trade-Up Recommendation

A distillation framework compresses LLM reasoning into a 15.5M-parameter trade-up recommendation model reaching AUC 0.941 with product-type test-time training.

The paper targets trade-up recommendation, which identifies higher-quality alternatives that preserve customer purchase intent. A retrieval-augmented few-shot LLM teacher generates labels and rationales that supervise a compact embedding-pair classifier; at inference the 15.5M-parameter student uses only two precomputed 768-dimensional embeddings with no LLM calls. On 8,352 annotated pairs, label-only training scored AUC 0.912, reasoning distillation reached 0.924, and product-type test-time training lifted it to 0.941 with average precision 0.940. The distilled student is roughly 5,000x faster and 10,000x cheaper than direct LLM inference on a 100K-pair proxy catalog.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 4, 17:08 UTC · 12d agoAI research

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What must happen for AI’s trillion-dollar gamble to pay off

Hyperscalers need 2.7x productivity gains by 2030 to justify nearly $1.1 trillion in AI data center spending, or risk bankruptcy and capital misallocation.

Wharton finance professor Jessica Wachter estimates hyperscaler AI expenditure will reach nearly $1.1 trillion through 2027 and that a 2.7x productivity increase is needed to break even by 2030. AI revenues of roughly $150-200 billion this year fall far short of about $750 billion in annual spending, with total investment from Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, and Oracle potentially exceeding $5 trillion over four years. Alphabet reported its first free cash flow deficit (about $5.9 billion) since its 2004 IPO due to AI infrastructure costs. Researchers warn that failed demand could make the buildout the largest capital misallocation in history, with depreciating GPU chips risking stranded assets.

MIT Technology Review · AI·Sep 15, 10:00 UTC · 1d agoAI industry

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Operational Roles of QRNG-Derived Quantum Entropy in Bitcoin Proof-of-Work Architectures

arXiv study finds quantum-random entropy adds no Bitcoin PoW success advantage but helps assurance in fault and provenance scenarios.

The paper shows replacing classical entropy with QRNG output does not change honest Bitcoin proof-of-work success probability when candidate headers remain distinct. It introduces a reproducible benchmark measuring an entropy-efficiency factor and a reboot-diversity index, finding QRNG value only in assurance-oriented scenarios involving correlated restart faults, namespace reuse, and entropy provenance. Validation is simulation-based, with hardware-in-the-loop testing identified as future work.

arXiv cs.CR·Sep 4, 12:47 UTC · 12d agoResearch

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DavidAU/Qwen3.8-27B-TURBO-Fable-Cold-Fusion-735-882-Heretic-Uncensored-NEO-CODER-MAX-MTP-GGUF — new model trending #8 on Hugging Face

A new Qwen3.8-27B GGUF fine-tune claims ARC-C 735 at 8-bit with thinking tokens cut 2x-10x versus the base model.

Independent creator DavidAU released a GGUF fine-tune of Qwen3.8-27B built with Unsloth, claiming ARC-C of 735 at 8-bit and 719 at 4-bit, trending #8 on Hugging Face. The 'TURBO' variant cuts thinking tokens by one half to as much as one tenth while retaining output quality and detail. The repo ships both regular and MTP quants and claims gains over the base model across seven benchmarks, using 'Cold Fusion (GAIN + Unsloth)' and 'Fable Fusion 711' training methods.

Hugging Face trending models·Sep 1, 07:01 UTC · 15d agoModel release

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Real-Time Intelligence with IBM Time Series Models on Confluent

IBM Research post on the Hugging Face blog describes running IBM time series models on Confluent for real-time intelligence.

Hugging Face's blog published an IBM Research post titled 'Real-Time Intelligence with IBM Time Series Models on Confluent.' No article body was available for classification, so details are limited to the title. The title indicates guidance on deploying IBM time series models alongside Confluent streaming infrastructure for real-time analytics.

Hugging Face Blog·Sep 2, 13:49 UTC · 14d agoAI tools & infra

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Generative Marketing Mix Modeling: A Causal Inference Framework Linking GEO and GEM to Business Impact

Paper proposes Generative Marketing Mix Modeling to causally estimate Generative Engine Optimization and Marketing effects on business outcomes.

The authors develop GMMM, a causal inference framework for measuring how often users see and notice a firm's name in generated answers, which standard marketing data ignore. For GEO it combines repeated generated answers with question counts, shares of generative-system usage and notice probabilities; for GEM it uses sponsored placement records with notice probabilities. The framework compares expected business responses under alternative treatment sequences, establishes identification conditions, and is evaluated on simulated product-recommendation answers in English and Japanese.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 10, 17:57 UTC · 6d agoAI research

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After warning AI is too dangerous, Bill Gates bets a billion on its upside

Gates Foundation pledges at least $1 billion over two years to widen AI access in health, education and agriculture, warning of a rich-poor divide.

The Gates Foundation's 2026 Goalkeepers report outlines spending of at least $1 billion over two years on AI access in health, education and farming. Gates notes over 90% of early LLM training data was English, with speech recognition error rates below 6% in English but above 60% in Yoruba. Cited projects include Penda Health clinics in Kenya (16-point diagnostic accuracy gain), Gemini Guided Learning in Sierra Leone (1.7 years of learning gains in eight weeks), and India's MahaVISTAAR reaching 740,000+ farmers at under 18 cents per person.

The Decoder·Sep 15, 14:26 UTC · 1d agoAI industry1

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ZGCM-1: A Fully Open and Extremely Efficient Foundation Model for Math and Agentic Search

ZGCM-1 is a fully open 7B foundation model with 256K context that stays competitive with frontier models on math reasoning and agentic search.

ZGCM-1 is a fully open 7B dense foundation model trained from scratch using an efficiency-focused recipe: interleaved gated sliding-window and full attention, a stable FP8 Muon optimizer, and MDP-based mid-training with context scaling across 16K, 64K, and 256K. On mathematical reasoning and agentic search suites it remains competitive with much larger frontier models such as Qwen3-235B-A22B and GLM-5.1. The recipe yields a ~4.2x improvement in 16K pre-training time-to-loss, and all weights, checkpoints, training code, data recipes, and W&B logs are open-sourced.

Hugging Face daily papers·Sep 10, 20:00 UTC · 6d agoModel release

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Coding Is Over. Get over It

A JPMorgan Chase engineer reflects on AI agents outpacing hand-coding, questioning ROI while predicting inference costs will become negligible.

A personal essay by a software engineer with 15+ years at JPMorgan Chase describes how AI coding agents now outperform him and have transformed his workflow. He argues AI ROI is unmeasurable, praises cheap small models such as GPT 5.6 Luna, and cites Claude Code head Boris Cherny's advice to discard AGENTS.md/Claude.md rule files. He contends coding is no longer scarce, worries entry-level jobs will be automated first, and predicts AI's bigger impact lies outside coding.

Hacker News · security·Sep 12, 13:16 UTC · 4d agoAI industryHN 20↑ · 26 comments2

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A*-Thought-V2: Efficient Latent Reasoning via Geometric Dynamics of LLM

A*-Thought-V2 compresses chain-of-thought into latent tokens using geometric hidden-state dynamics, cutting computation while improving accuracy on Qwen models.

A*-Thought-V2 models chain-of-thought as a hidden-state trajectory and interleaves explicit text with continuous latent tokens, compressing steps whose transitions deviate from the question-to-solution direction. Trained via stepwise embedding forcing and label forcing with soft multi-modal supervision, it was evaluated on Qwen3.5-9B and Qwen3.6-27B across six benchmarks. Reported results include up to 2.6% average accuracy gain, up to 50% shorter responses, 2.29x higher Accuracy per Computation Unit, 94.6% faster preprocessing, and up to 80.3% faster training.

Hugging Face daily papers·Sep 7, 13:56 UTC · 9d agoAI research

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ukisai/Swift-Qwen3.8-27b — new model trending #30 on Hugging Face

UkisAI releases Swift-Qwen3.8-27B, a Qwen3.8-27B derivative using 58.3% fewer thinking tokens with <1% performance loss and ~1.95x speed-up.

UkisAI released Swift-Qwen3.8-27B, a reasoning-efficient derivative of Qwen3.8-27B that cuts thinking-token usage by 58.3% while staying within 1% of base performance, yielding a 1.95x speed-up on several tasks. The model was fine-tuned by penalizing reasoning-marker tokens that trigger overthinking, plus a transfer component from BottleCap AI's ThinkingCap-Qwen3.6-27B. Benchmarks include GPQA-Diamond 88.28% (base 88.38%), MMLU-Pro 84.95% (base 85.47%), and AIME 2026 94.00% (base 98.67%), with mean-token reductions of roughly 27-46% across tests. GGUF weights are available on Hugging Face alongside enterprise licensing options.

Hugging Face trending models·Sep 8, 13:35 UTC · 8d agoModel release

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NVIDIA AI Factory Compute Is Becoming an Investable Asset Class

NVIDIA partners with Apollo, BlackRock, Blackstone, Brookfield, Goldman Sachs and KKR to mobilize over $500 billion of third-party capital for AI infrastructure financing.

NVIDIA announced partnerships with major financial firms including Apollo, BlackRock, Blackstone, Brookfield, Goldman Sachs and KKR. The independent financing platforms are designed to mobilize more than $500 billion of third-party capital to support AI infrastructure buildout. NVIDIA frames the move as positioning AI factory compute as an investable asset class.

NVIDIA Blog·Aug 12, 00:38 UTC · Aug 12, 2026AI industry

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Necessary or Sufficient? Evaluating LLM Explanations With Behavioural Evidence

New framework tests whether LLM-cited explanation factors are necessary or sufficient, finding weak correlation across Claude, GPT, and Gemini models.

An arXiv paper introduces black-box intervention tests measuring whether factors LLMs cite in their explanations are necessary or sufficient for their outputs in agent oversight workflows. Across eight models from the Claude, GPT, and Gemini families, Spearman correlations between cited rankings and measured influence ranged from 0.349-0.354 (advisor recommendation) to 0.431-0.580 (prompt monitoring). Uncited factors scored above the lowest cited factor in up to 57.6% of advisor responses, showing cited top-three factors do not reliably identify the most influential inputs.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 4, 17:37 UTC · 12d agoAI safety & security1

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nvidia/Qwen3.8-Flash-Next-NVFP4 — new model trending #28 on Hugging Face

NVIDIA released an NVFP4 4-bit quantized build of Alibaba's Qwen3.8-Flash-Next, a 125B-parameter MoE vision-language model, via Model Optimizer.

The checkpoint quantizes Qwen3.8-Flash-Next — a hybrid-attention (Gated DeltaNet and Qwen Sparse Attention) Mixture-of-Experts model with 125B total and 6B activated parameters, plus 51B n-gram embeddings and 4B MTP — using NVIDIA Model Optimizer v0.46.0. NVFP4 benchmarks stay close to FP8: GPQA Diamond 91.5 vs 92.0, MMMU Pro 78.3 vs 77.1, Terminal-Bench 2.1 82.9 vs 83.3. It targets Blackwell B200/B300 GPUs, runs on vLLM, supports 262K context extendable to 1M tokens, and is licensed under the NVIDIA Open Model License with Qwen Community License 1.0.

Hugging Face trending models·Sep 2, 04:03 UTC · 15d agoModel release

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ISTA-DASLab/Qwen3.8-27B-GSQ-RCO-GGUF — new model trending #3 on Hugging Face

ISTA-DASLab releases GSQ-RCO non-uniform GGUF quantizations of Qwen3.8-27B down to 2.5 bpw, with task-lossless IQ3_S matching BF16 benchmark scores.

ISTA-DASLab released GGUF quantizations of Qwen3.8-27B produced with GSQ (Gumbel-Softmax Quantization) and RCO (Riemannian Constrained Optimization), non-uniform methods that allocate per-tensor precision via gradient-based search under a total size budget. Four checkpoints range from 2.50 bpw (8.4 GB) to 3.50 bpw (11.8 GB), plus a BF16 vision projector (mmproj) enabling multimodal use. The recommended IQ3_S build is task-lossless, matching the BF16 base exactly on AIME25 (100.00) and LiveCodeBench v6 (85.71) at roughly one fifth of the BF16 size. Optional -mtp variants add a Multi-Token Prediction head for speculative decoding in llama.cpp.

Hugging Face trending models·Aug 28, 18:38 UTC · 19d agoModel release1

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Competence-Gated Pooling of Language Models and Priors for Event Forecasting

Paper proposes a competence gate pooling language model forecasts with external priors, improving Brier score from 0.0771 to 0.0732 across 2,357 binary questions.

The paper defines a language model's relative competence as its marginal value beyond an available external forecast, and derives conditions under Brier loss where model disagreement improves that forecast. A competence gate estimates domain-level source weights from resolved outcomes, shrinks uncertain estimates toward a global weight, and recalibrates the pooled forecast. Across 2,357 resolved binary questions and five language models, it improves the external baseline from 0.0771 to 0.0732 Brier and beats global forecast combinations, though it defers to the market on ForecastBench. Across four Qwen models, verbal confidence failed to identify when the model outperformed the external forecast, while outcome-estimated competence supported better abstention.

Hugging Face daily papers·Sep 9, 20:00 UTC · 7d agoAI research1

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Quantile-based Loss Filtering for Outlier-Robust Stochastic Gradient Descent

Quantile-k-Loss SGD filters corrupted component losses by quantile sampling, proving linear convergence while outperforming standard and min-k-loss SGD.

The paper proposes Quantile-k-Loss SGD (Q(k)L-SGD), a loss-filtering framework for finite-sum optimization with corrupted components that samples k losses per iteration and updates using an index from the lower empirical q-quantile. The authors prove linear convergence under standard convexity, requiring sample size to scale with the number of corruptions, plus a complementary small-sample probabilistic analysis. Experiments on polynomial regression, regularized logistic regression, and hinge loss show intermediate quantiles often outperform both standard SGD and min-k-loss SGD.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 11, 16:38 UTC · 5d agoAI research

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