Search: “risk-perception”

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Toward an Empirical Probabilistic Risk Manifestation Model of Organizational Cybersecurity in SMEs

Empirical study of 22 SME security assessments builds a probabilistic risk model and shows assessments can be cut 24-45% while retaining most critical findings.

Researchers analyzed 281 validated security findings from 22 real-world SME cybersecurity assessments conducted over two years via a pro bono university clinic. They derived an empirical Risk Manifestation Model linking eight organizational security functions to two exposure conditions, five attack mechanisms, and six outcome categories, using probability propagation to identify dominant risk pathways. The dominant pathway runs from asset exposure to credential compromise to unauthorized access, stable under leave-one-organization-out analysis. Retaining six functions reduces assessment burden by 24% while preserving 97% of critical findings; five functions cut burden 45% while preserving 89% of critical findings.

arXiv cs.CR·Sep 14, 01:15 UTC · 2d agoResearch

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Bag of Tricks or Bag of Myths? Reducing Modeling Complexity with Task Knowledge in Explainable Suicide Risk Assessment

Researchers audit 31 NLP techniques for clinician-annotated suicide risk prediction, finding only 5 of 31 comparisons yield reliable gains.

A study of 1,635 clinician-annotated social media posts ran roughly 300 controlled experiments across 7 methodological families, auditing techniques such as model scaling, synthetic data, ensembling, and threshold tuning under severe class imbalance. The proposed system reformulates risk factor prediction as entailment between posts and codebook definitions, using architecturally diverse ensembles with class-balanced training and deployment-consistent calibration. It scores 0.8203 for risk, 0.7953 for evidence, and 0.7045 macro-F1 for factors, ranking third among 53 teams.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 7, 17:14 UTC · 8d agoAI research

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From ‘High/Medium/Low’ to Dollars: Making Cyber Risk Legible to Your CFO

Cyble argues security teams should express cyber risk in financial terms for CFOs instead of high/medium/low ratings, citing its 2025 threat forecast results.

Cyble published guidance on cyber risk quantification, arguing qualitative high/medium/low ratings fail to convey financial exposure to executives. The piece notes that over 80% of its 2025 threat predictions, including AI-driven ransomware and supply-chain attacks, materialized as anticipated.

Cyble·Aug 25, 09:45 UTC · 21d agoIndustry

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TIER: Threat Implicitness Benchmark for Evaluating LLM Safety Behaviors

TIER benchmark shows LLM safety behaviors shift gradually across threat implicitness levels, with jailbreaks exposing the largest robustness gaps.

The TIER benchmark evaluates LLM safety behaviors across four risk domains and four threat levels, from explicit harmful requests to sophisticated jailbreaks, using a six-label behavior scale and two independent LLM judges. Experiments on six open-weight LLMs show safety behaviors evolve gradually across threat levels rather than flipping from refusal to compliance. Models with similar Attack Success Rates can exhibit distinct response distributions, arguing for behavior-aware safety evaluation.

arXiv cs.CR·Sep 4, 13:13 UTC · 11d agoAI safety & security

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Understanding Operator Attitudes Toward AI-Supported Decision Making in Maritime Operations

A survey of maritime professionals finds positive but scenario-sensitive attitudes toward AI collision-avoidance assistants, urging design for calibrated reliance.

The study surveyed maritime stakeholders on attitudes toward AI-supported collision-avoidance assistants for Maritime Autonomous Surface Ships, measuring technology anxiety, trust in automation, and explanation quality with established questionnaires plus thematic analysis of open responses. Results show generally positive disposition, no clear age-related openness differences, stable trust across scenarios, and multidimensional, scenario-sensitive explanation ratings. Participants valued decision support and situation awareness but worried about AI reliability, over-reliance, and skill loss; the authors recommend designing for calibrated reliance with domain experts in the loop rather than maximizing automation or trust.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 10, 16:57 UTC · 5d agoAI research1

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AI vulnerability discovery scores the highest impact of 20 emerging risks

Gartner survey of 316 organizations ranks AI-driven vulnerability discovery as the top emerging risk, with tangible impact expected within roughly two years.

Gartner's quarterly survey had 316 risk managers, auditors, and senior executives rank 20 emerging threats in April and May, with AI discovery of cyber vulnerabilities ranked first, up from outside the top five the prior quarter. Respondents scored the impact time frame at 1.92 on a scale where 1 means under a year and 2 means one to two years, and 76% placed it in their top ten, ranking first in all four regions and highest among banking and financial respondents at 78%. The analysis notes AI now finds unknown flaws at volumes patching teams cannot absorb and that exploit development time has collapsed, citing defensive efforts like Anthropic's Project Glasswing and OpenAI's Daybreak. Gartner recommends recalibrating cyber risk impact, revisiting risk appetite, demanding stronger vendor security validation, and moving toward faster automated remediation.

Help Net Security·Aug 26, 00:00 UTC · 21d agoIndustry

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Perturbation Probing: A New Diagnostic for the Fragility of LLM Safety

Unit 42 research shows LLM safety refusals concentrate in a thin neural layer, motivating external, multi-layered AI security controls.

Palo Alto Networks Unit 42 introduces Perturbation Probing, a diagnostic technique for measuring the fragility of LLM safety mechanisms. The research finds that safety refusal behavior is localized within a thin neural layer, implying small perturbations can undermine built-in refusals. The authors argue this motivates external, multi-layered security defenses on top of model-internal safety training.

Palo Alto Unit 42·Aug 28, 22:00 UTC · 18d agoAI safety & security

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What the AI Warning Letter Completely Missed

Opinion piece argues the recent AI warning letter identifies a risk window but omits which actors pose risks and who can mitigate.

This Dark Reading commentary critiques a recent AI warning letter for correctly identifying an approaching risk window while failing to name who is coming through it or who will close it. The piece is brief opinion commentary on AI risk discourse rather than a technical report.

Dark Reading·Sep 3, 17:23 UTC · 12d agoAI safety & security

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Reference-Based Bias Detection in LLMs via Relative Representations of Hidden States

Researchers propose auditing LLM bias via relative hidden-state representations, detecting bias increases with 3-50x less compute than output-level benchmarks.

The paper introduces a reference-based bias auditing method that compares hidden-state representations across model variants, such as before and after fine-tuning, by encoding sentences relative to a fixed anchor set. The resulting Representational Bias Shift (Delta-B) correlates with output-level bias change in 15 of 18 tested settings, reaching |r| = 0.84 under full fine-tuning across WildGuardMix, DecodingTrust, and ToxiGen benchmarks. Thresholding Delta-B detects checkpoints whose bias increased with ROC AUC between 0.65 and 0.99 and beats a SEAT-based baseline, while auditing a model in about three minutes with 3-50x less compute.

Hugging Face daily papers·Sep 8, 20:00 UTC · 7d agoAI research

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SAFIRE: Safety-Critical Benchmark for Fine-grained Fire and Smoke Understanding in Multimodal LLMs

SAFIRE, an 83K-image fire and smoke benchmark, shows open-source multimodal LLMs average only 61.9% accuracy on safety-critical fire reasoning.

SAFIRE is a large-scale benchmark for fire-smoke understanding in multimodal LLMs with 83K captioned images across 20 scenarios and 193K multiple-choice VQA questions spanning 10 evaluation dimensions from perception to higher-order reasoning. Annotations were built via a GPT-5.4-assisted multi-stage pipeline with MLLM majority voting. Ten open-source MLLMs (8B-38B) average 61.9% accuracy, exposing major gaps in safety-critical reasoning. Adapting vision encoders on 7% of the domain data raises fire-scene classification from 20.1% to 64.5%.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 7, 17:59 UTC · 8d agoAI research

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From Reweighting to Rewriting: Unlocking the Intervention Effects of Influential Samples in Training Data Attribution

Study shows rewriting responses of influence-selected training examples shifts LLM behavior more strongly than reweighting the same samples.

The paper examines training data attribution, arguing that influence functions identify high-leverage examples whose value goes unrealized under conventional weight-based reweighting interventions. It introduces influence-guided response rewriting, which replaces the responses of influence-selected examples with behavior-aligned or behavior-opposed supervision while keeping instructions fixed, tested across four open-weight LLMs using epistemic abstention as the primary testbed. Rewriting produces stronger, more persistent, and bidirectional behavioral shifts, including on safety refusal, while reweighting the same examples yields weak, inconsistent effects. The results motivate intervention-aware evaluation of TDA methods.

Hugging Face daily papers·Sep 1, 20:00 UTC · 14d agoAI research

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Recorded Future Launches 6 New Capabilities for Third-Party Risk

Recorded Future added native risk ratings to its Third-Party Risk product, uniting threat intelligence and risk scoring in one workflow.

Recorded Future launched six new capabilities bringing native risk ratings into its Third-Party Risk product. The integration combines threat intelligence with risk ratings in a single workflow for assessing vendors and external partners. No exploitation or incident is involved; this is a security product capability release.

Recorded Future·Aug 19, 00:00 UTC · 28d agoTools

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Quantifying the Engagement Trap: Impact of Short-form Video Recommender Systems on Users with ADHD

A 302-participant study finds engagement-optimized short-form video recommenders cause disproportionate time blindness and distress for users with ADHD.

Researchers ran a stratified Prolific study with 302 participants comparing short-form video recommendation experiences with and without ADHD. Participants with ADHD reported significantly higher time blindness, post-usage regret, and emotional distress despite perceiving recommendations as similarly relevant. The paper proposes neurodiversity-aware, human-centered design interventions to mitigate these algorithmic harms.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 7, 17:38 UTC · 8d agoAI research

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Engineered Persuasion: Evaluating Personalized Pretexts in LLM-Generated Spear Phishing

A study of 180 US workers found each LLM phishing personalization level raised click-intention odds by 28%, but credibility depends on context fit.

The arXiv paper evaluates how personalized pretexts in LLM-generated spear phishing affect perceived credibility, using 180 US working adults across 1,436 evaluations of emails with four cumulative personalization levels, from workplace context to shared-project details. Convincingness rose 2.40 points per level in sensitivity analysis and click-intention odds increased 28% per level, while non-clickers shifted toward deleting rather than reporting. Qualitative coding showed details matching the recipient's role and routines supported credibility, whereas incorrect, vague, or channel-inappropriate details raised suspicion. The authors argue personalization effectiveness depends on pretext fit, with implications for workplace security training.

arXiv cs.CR·Sep 3, 19:21 UTC · 12d agoResearch

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One resignation turned the embers of AI fear into a wildfire

Interconnects argues a frontier-lab researcher's safety resignation went viral via media coordination, reigniting AI existential-risk discourse.

The essay analyzes why researcher Jacob Coxon's resignation over AI safety risks went viral, aided by a Wall Street Journal exclusive, advocacy-group amplification, and Daniel Kokotajlo's same-day Joe Rogan appearance. It notes Evan Hubinger's >10% extinction-risk figure and criticizes existential-risk discourse for conflating very different meanings of the term. The author assigns near-zero probability to complete extinction but argues concrete risks such as cyberattacks on critical infrastructure and bio-risks merit debate. It also rejects recursive self-improvement forecasts, proposing 'lossy self-improvement' where models excel at math and code but remain limited elsewhere.

Interconnects·Sep 10, 15:28 UTC · 5d agoAI safety & security

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Why judgment is emerging as cybersecurity’s defining skill

CyberScoop op-ed argues CISOs should grant AI autonomy based on reversibility and blast radius rather than model confidence, and measure analyst overrides of AI recommendations.

A CyberScoop op-ed contends that as AI takes over analysis and recommendations in security operations, human judgment about context, reversibility and blast radius becomes the defining skill. The author argues autonomy decisions should rest on how reversible and impactful an action is rather than model confidence, citing examples such as patching vendor-certified medical devices and a service account whose 3 a.m. login spikes were normal quarterly-close activity. It also urges leaders to measure analyst approvals, edits and rejections of AI recommendations, and review latency, instead of automation rates or mean time to resolution.

CyberScoop·Sep 4, 10:00 UTC · 11d agoIndustry

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ReactHuman: A Physics-Grounded Benchmark for Human-Like Reactive Decision-Making in Embodied Multimodal LLMs

ReactHuman benchmark tests whether multimodal LLMs react safely to sudden household hazards; seven evaluated models mishandle roughly one hazard in three.

ReactHuman is the first physics-grounded benchmark for human-like reactive decision-making, placing a multimodal LLM as the brain of a simulated humanoid facing 17 event families of sudden household hazards across over 1,000 bit-for-bit reproducible scenes with annotation-free ground truth from 240 Hz rigid-body simulation, including adversarial objects whose appearance contradicts their physics. A five-metric suite scores each reaction along reasonable, safe, and physically grounded axes, and every committed plan is physically executed. Seven representative MLLMs mishandle roughly one hazard in three, act from fixed dispositions rather than the observed scene, trust appearance over motion, and miss interception points at meter scale; none of these failures shrink with model scale.

Hugging Face daily papers·Sep 8, 20:00 UTC · 7d agoAI research

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AI for Military Support

Study of 2,015 Israeli military personnel found algorithmic aversion toward AI targeting decision support, reduced when explainable AI features were added.

The paper 'Black Box Warfare' reconstructed a real-world military AI decision-support system used in targeting and tested a high-fidelity replica in two experiments with 2,015 Israeli military personnel. Contrary to automation-bias fears, participants showed strong algorithmic aversion, especially in high-collateral-damage scenarios. Integrating explainable AI features reduced aversion and promoted more thoughtful evaluation of algorithmic recommendations. The authors conclude that trust in military AI is dynamic and that human agency remains central in high-stakes decisions.

Schneier on Security·Aug 11, 11:18 UTC · Aug 11, 2026AI research

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What do CISOs need to rest easy about future AI risks?

IANS survey of 113 CISOs finds optimism about managing future AI security risks hinges more on organizational readiness and leadership support than current controls.

An IANS AI Security Survey of 113 CISOs fielded in April and May found 41% optimistic and 38% pessimistic about their organization's ability to manage AI security risks over the next 24 months. Six organizational signals—leadership understanding of AI risk, defined governance ownership, security team effectiveness with AI tools, CISO ownership of the AI-security budget, sustainable workloads, and staffing—separate confident CISOs from pessimistic ones. Interviewed analysts cautioned that these readiness signals measure self-assessed confidence rather than actual security, and recommended hands-on AI use by security teams plus governance of third-party models.

CSO Online·Sep 7, 08:25 UTC · 9d agoIndustry

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What Matters, When? Diagnosing and Improving Conditional Visual Grounding in Visuomotor Imitation Policies

Researchers diagnose conditional visual grounding failures in visuomotor imitation policies and show targeted interventions substantially improve distractor robustness.

The paper studies why ACT-based visuomotor imitation policies fail when visually similar distractor objects or receptacles are introduced, finding sensitivity depends on both distractor type and manipulation stage. Interventions including distractor augmentation, phase-dependent attention regularization, and appearance-based visual prompting improve target selection while preserving spatial control information, with gains in simulation and on a physical UR3e. The same failure pattern is confirmed in a pretrained vision-language-action policy on a state-conditioned medical instrument-handling task.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 4, 17:27 UTC · 11d agoAI research

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Safety for Whom? Boundary-Aware Self-Distillation for Controlled LLM Safety Refusal

A self-distillation safety framework tunes narrow-boundary refusals in Qwen3-8B, raising target-domain refusal to 84.75% while cutting over-refusal from 15.20% to 5.20%.

The paper formulates narrow-boundary safety, where deployments need refusals within specific topics rather than whole subjects, and proposes an offline self-generated framework with controlled topic generation, escalating retries, and harmful-benign boundary pairs. On political persuasion with Qwen3-8B, the method raised target-domain refusal from 9.47% to 84.75% and cut the mean unsafe-response rate across three broader benchmarks from 26.26% to 0.14%. Verified target-model responses reduced over-refusal from 15.20% to 5.20%, and boundary-pair data cut comply-side over-refusal on held-out pairs from 32.94% to 4.16%. Results show data composition controls the safety-usability trade-off and alignment should be evaluated on both sides of the refusal boundary.

Hugging Face daily papers·Sep 2, 20:00 UTC · 13d agoAI safety & security1

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Recorded Future Launches Digital Risk Protection, Unifying Brand and Identity Monitoring

Recorded Future launched Digital Risk Protection, unifying brand and identity monitoring across five external threat surfaces in one workflow.

Recorded Future announced Digital Risk Protection, combining brand threat monitoring and identity exposure monitoring across five use cases: malicious site, impersonation, code repository, dark web brand, and identity exposure monitoring. The platform includes an AI Triage Agent that automates alert evaluation with explicit verdicts and context, expanding social media analysis, OCR, full Telegram coverage, and infostealer log ingestion. Gartner's 2026 Magic Quadrant folded digital risk protection into cyber threat intelligence technologies, and the launch cites $15.9 billion in 2025 US fraud/scam losses, up 28% year over year.

Recorded Future·Sep 9, 00:00 UTC · 7d agoTools

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Batten the Hatches: Cybersecurity with Military Mariners

Interviews with 20 U.S. Navy and Coast Guard mariners reveal informal, safety-oriented shipboard cyber risk models that may delay attribution and containment.

The study conducts semi-structured interviews with 20 military mariners from U.S. Navy and Coast Guard vessels to understand how service members recognize and respond to cyber risk aboard ships. Unique consequences of compromising military systems identified include weapon takeover and purposeful geopolitical escalation. Cybersecurity is organizationally abstract on ships, so mariners build cyber risk models from informal experience rather than formal instruction. A safety-oriented incident-response model creates resilience but may delay cyber attribution and containment.

arXiv cs.CR·Sep 11, 13:04 UTC · 4d agoResearch

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Inoculation Midtraining with Learned Neologisms

Inoculation Midtraining confines unsafe LLM behavior to a neologism-marked context, reducing misalignment after unsafe post-training but leaking under nearby contextual cues.

The paper introduces Inoculation Midtraining, which teaches a base model during midtraining that unsafe behavior belongs to a context marked by a learned neologism token, then post-trains on unsafe data within that context. Across supervised fine-tuning and RL post-training regimes, the technique reduces misalignment while preserving transfer of benign properties like German or Shakespearean prose. However, it does not outperform standard Inoculation Prompting, is sensitive to training configuration, and produces a leaky boundary that nearby contextual cues can reactivate. The authors conclude it is not yet a load-bearing component of a developer safety framework.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 14, 17:12 UTC · 1d agoAI safety & security

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How to build an exposure management program the business trusts: Lessons from Tenable’s CSO

Tenable's CSO describes an AI-driven exposure management program that consolidates tool sprawl and translates cyber risk for boards.

A Tenable blog post shares lessons from CSO Robert Huber on moving to an AI-driven exposure management program. It argues tool sprawl and data silos hinder holistic risk assessment and that exposure management unifies attack-surface data into business-level metrics for the C-suite.

Tenable Blog·Aug 27, 14:30 UTC · 19d agoIndustry

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Do Input-Level Defenses Transfer to Observation-Level Attacks on VideoLLMs?

A systematic study shows input-level adversarial defenses provide inconsistent, often near-zero protection against observation-level attacks on video LLMs.

Researchers introduce DefTEval, a controlled framework testing eleven input-level defenses against five attack types across five video LLMs. Harmful-content detection rates are frequently near zero, and defenses fail even when attacks embed harmful signals in every sampled frame. Token compression discards localized safety features and modality fusion down-weights weakened visual signals, with defense outcomes dominated by model architecture rather than the defense method.

arXiv cs.CR·Sep 8, 06:59 UTC · 8d agoAI safety & security

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Is Cyber Facing an Affordability Crisis?

Dark Reading analysis argues record breach costs and roughly $240 billion in cyber defense spending leave small businesses dangerously exposed, threatening supply chains.

The analysis examines an affordability crisis in cybersecurity, noting breach costs have reached record highs while defense spending approaches $240 billion. It argues small businesses are dangerously under-protected relative to rising attack costs. Weak small-business defenses are framed as a supply chain security risk for larger organizations.

Dark Reading·Aug 25, 14:53 UTC · 21d agoIndustry

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Same Trajectory, Contradictory Rewards (ROBORMBENCH): Paraphrase Fragility in Vision Language Reward Models

New ROBORMBENCH benchmark shows vision-language reward models can flip robot success/failure judgments when goal instructions are paraphrased.

The authors show that paraphrasing the instruction alone can substantially change progress scores from VLM reward models, even flipping identical robot trajectories between failure and success. ROBORMBENCH comprises 2,390 real-robot trajectories with ground-truth progress labels and 21,673 verified paraphrases covering lexical, syntactic, and action-goal rewrites. Instability is widespread across proprietary and open-source VLMs, grows with more divergent rewrites, and is not reliably reduced by scale or explicit reasoning, while trajectory-grounded dedicated reward models are markedly more stable.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 4, 17:47 UTC · 11d agoAI research1

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Financial Stability Board Sounds the Alarm Over Frontier AI Risks

The Financial Stability Board warned G20 banking leaders that frontier AI adoption poses growing cyber and financial stability risks.

The Financial Stability Board (FSB) issued a warning to G20 banking leaders about cyber and financial-stability risks stemming from frontier AI. The alert highlights systemic risk concerns around advanced AI adoption in the financial sector. No specific incidents or regulatory actions were announced.

Infosecurity Magazine·Sep 1, 09:20 UTC · 15d agoAI policy

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Necessary or Sufficient? Evaluating LLM Explanations With Behavioural Evidence

New framework tests whether LLM-cited explanation factors are necessary or sufficient, finding weak correlation across Claude, GPT, and Gemini models.

An arXiv paper introduces black-box intervention tests measuring whether factors LLMs cite in their explanations are necessary or sufficient for their outputs in agent oversight workflows. Across eight models from the Claude, GPT, and Gemini families, Spearman correlations between cited rankings and measured influence ranged from 0.349-0.354 (advisor recommendation) to 0.431-0.580 (prompt monitoring). Uncited factors scored above the lowest cited factor in up to 57.6% of advisor responses, showing cited top-three factors do not reliably identify the most influential inputs.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 4, 17:37 UTC · 11d agoAI safety & security1

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