Search: “statistical-learning”

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Likelihood-free inference with nuisance parameters through normalizing flows

Researchers decompose normalizing flows to derive near-pivotal statistics for likelihood-free inference with nuisance parameters, recovering the t-test and beating Welch limits.

A new paper decomposes neural-network normalizing flows to uncover pivotal statistics in the presence of nuisance parameters using only a sample generator from the distribution of interest. The statistic is near-pivotal in the sense of minimum average KL-divergence of its p-values and can incorporate prior knowledge of group invariances such as translation and scale. Experiments show it recovers the one-sample t-test almost exactly, outperforms the Welch test on worst-case size over a constrained variance-ratio range, and delivers higher power and much faster runtime than profile likelihood-ratio techniques on small-to-moderate samples.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 9, 17:58 UTC · 6d agoAI research

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General Quantification of Covariate and Concept Shifts

Paper proposes γ*-concept shifts via entropic optimal transport, deriving estimable generalization bounds unifying covariate and concept shift under distribution shift.

The authors show existing definitions of concept shift break when source and target supports mismatch and propose γ*-concept shifts grounded in entropic optimal transport. They derive a general error bound covering broad loss functions, label spaces and stochastic labeling, plus estimators with concentration guarantees. The resulting DataShifts algorithm quantifies distribution shifts and estimates the error bound in most applications, addressing learning bounds that were previously non-estimable from samples.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 10, 17:57 UTC · 5d agoAI research1

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Multi-Task Learning for Sparsely-Labeled Time Series: A Case Study on Cold-Hardiness Modeling

Multi-task RNN architectures pooling sparse cultivar data improve grape cold-hardiness and budbreak prediction over single-task and scientific baselines.

Researchers apply recurrent neural networks to daily grape cold-hardiness prediction from weather time series, where per-cultivar labels are temporally sparse and limited. They design multiple multi-task learning architectures that treat cultivars as tasks and evaluate them in both MTL and transfer learning settings. Certain architectures consistently outperform single-task learning and state-of-the-art scientific models, and a single MTL model jointly learning cold hardiness and budbreak improves accuracy on both tasks.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 8, 17:17 UTC · 7d agoAI research

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Continual Learning Mechanisms Compose for Long-Horizon Memorization

Composing data, function, and weight anchors with merged LoRA raises 100-task long-horizon retention from 1.2% to 34.9% in continual fine-tuning.

The paper introduces long-horizon memorization: a model learns 100 query-answer tasks through continual supervised fine-tuning without retaining earlier examples or receiving task identifiers at inference. No single continual learning mechanism maintains strong retention at this horizon, so the authors compose complementary mechanisms along data/function/weight anchors and low-rank allocation rules. The best method combining all three anchors with merged LoRA ranks among the top 3 methods on all three datasets and raises average final retention from 1.2% to 34.9%, a 28-fold improvement.

Hugging Face daily papers·Sep 6, 20:00 UTC · 9d agoAI research

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Transfer Learning for Evolving Domains

TrED formalizes transfer learning for domains whose data availability evolves over time, arguing classical settings are regimes along one trajectory, and remains unsolved.

The paper introduces Transfer Learning for Evolving Domains (TrED), formalizing transfer learning as a trajectory problem where target data and labels are progressively collected. TrED is specified by a data availability process fixed by the environment, a freely chosen learning protocol, and an evaluation criterion scoring the whole trajectory of models. Classical settings like domain generalization, domain adaptation, and multi-domain learning are recovered as regimes within this framework. The authors survey the literature and find most methods are tailored to a single regime, leaving TrED a well-posed open problem.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 11, 16:37 UTC · 4d agoAI research

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Understanding the Impact of Model Pruning on Long-Tail Forgetting and Explanation Reliability in Medical Imaging

Systematic study finds model pruning causes frequency-dependent long-tail forgetting in medical imaging and that gradient-informed methods best preserve explanations.

Across two long-tailed medical imaging datasets, two CNN architectures, four pruning methods, and sparsity up to 95%, the study measures predictive performance, explanation stability, and faithfulness. Rare classes degrade earlier and more severely than frequent ones, while explanation reliability depends mainly on the pruning strategy, with gradient-informed methods degrading least. Mechanistic analysis ties explanation collapse to loss of class-discriminative gradients rather than vanishing feature activations, recommending class- and explanation-aware evaluation of compression.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 7, 17:44 UTC · 8d agoAI research

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Studying Image Tokenizers as Visual Languages in Unified Multimodal Models

A controlled pure-autoregressive testbed shows task-specific validation losses rank image tokenizers differently, with I2T loss the most consistent signal.

Researchers built a controlled pure-autoregressive testbed and tracked task-specific validation losses during multimodal continual pretraining across text, image, text-to-image (T2I), and image-to-text (I2T) prediction. They find losses should be analyzed per task because they exhibit distinct scaling behavior and rank tokenizers differently, and that the loss-performance relationship depends on the predicted token space. I2T loss, computed over a shared text vocabulary, correlates consistently with both generation and visual understanding performance after supervised finetuning. Case studies revisit the discriminator, semantic supervision, and vocabulary size as tokenizer design axes.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 8, 17:57 UTC · 7d agoAI research1

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Few-Shot Learning for Network Intrusion Detection: Methods, Datasets, and Performance

A PRISMA-style review of 21 few-shot learning studies for network intrusion detection finds meta-learning and CNNs dominant and evaluation inconsistently reported.

The systematic review screened 1,358 records from ACM Digital Library, IEEE Xplore, and Scopus covering 2022-2026 and retained 21 studies on few-shot learning for network intrusion detection. Meta-learning (8 studies) and convolutional neural networks (10) are the most common approaches, while CIC-IDS2017 and CSE-CIC-IDS2018 are the most frequently used datasets. Most evaluations use five or fewer samples per class, and missing parameters and source code limit reproducibility and direct comparison.

arXiv cs.CR·Sep 10, 09:07 UTC · 6d agoResearch1

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Reference-Based Bias Detection in LLMs via Relative Representations of Hidden States

Researchers propose auditing LLM bias via relative hidden-state representations, detecting bias increases with 3-50x less compute than output-level benchmarks.

The paper introduces a reference-based bias auditing method that compares hidden-state representations across model variants, such as before and after fine-tuning, by encoding sentences relative to a fixed anchor set. The resulting Representational Bias Shift (Delta-B) correlates with output-level bias change in 15 of 18 tested settings, reaching |r| = 0.84 under full fine-tuning across WildGuardMix, DecodingTrust, and ToxiGen benchmarks. Thresholding Delta-B detects checkpoints whose bias increased with ROC AUC between 0.65 and 0.99 and beats a SEAT-based baseline, while auditing a model in about three minutes with 3-50x less compute.

Hugging Face daily papers·Sep 8, 20:00 UTC · 7d agoAI research

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Eliciting Weak-to-Strong Generalization with On-Policy Reverse Distillation

OPRD distillation enables weak-to-strong generalization by amplifying verifier-supported policy updates, outperforming existing RL and distillation methods with fewer student updates.

On-Policy Reverse Distillation (OPRD) evaluates a weak teacher's policy shift relative to its reference policy on student rollouts and amplifies the verifier-supported component of the student's policy gradient. This rescaling preserves the stationary points of policy optimization while letting the student learn beyond the teacher's capacity ceiling. In successive model transfer and multi-teacher distillation, OPRD achieves higher performance with fewer student updates than existing RL and distillation approaches, and response-style analysis shows students remain closer to verifier-RL-trained models than to their weak teachers.

Hugging Face daily papers·Sep 7, 20:00 UTC · 8d agoAI research

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Large Language Models Develop Belief State Geometry In-Context

Probing six open-source LLMs on HMM-generated data shows belief states are linearly decodable (R² 0.83–0.99), suggesting in-context learning approximates Bayesian prediction.

Researchers prompted six open-source LLMs with data from 40 hidden Markov models selected for non-trivial belief structure and probed residual-stream activations for belief states (posteriors over hidden states). Belief states were linearly decodable with peak R² values of 0.83–0.99 across HMM/LLM combinations, spanning early to late layers. Patching and steering the probe-identified subspace preserved downstream prediction quality while control interventions degraded performance substantially, establishing functional relevance. The results provide representation-level evidence that in-context learning approximates optimal Bayesian prediction over a context-inferred generative model.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 15, 16:17 UTC · 22h agoAI research

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Diffusion Models and Concept Formation

Paper argues diffusion models implicitly form Cobweb-like concept hierarchies, with a basic level emerging at intermediate noise levels.

The authors draw a formal correspondence between diffusion models and Cobweb, a classic incremental concept-hierarchy learner, noting both are hierarchical Bayesian density models with Gaussian prototypes. Modes of the diffusion model's noisy marginals form a hierarchy whose basic level sits at intermediate noise, where class identity commits. The correspondence is tested on MNIST and Fashion-MNIST via mode-finding. Diffusion is reframed as a cognitive model of concept formation.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 11, 16:43 UTC · 4d agoAI research

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Studying Image Tokenizers as Visual Languages in Unified Multimodal Models

A controlled autoregressive testbed shows validation losses must be analyzed per task, and image tokenizer choice affects joint multimodal text modeling.

Researchers built a pure-autoregressive testbed to study image tokenizers as the 'visual language' of unified multimodal models, tracking task-specific validation losses during multimodal continual pretraining across text, image, text-to-image (T2I), and image-to-text (I2T) prediction. They found that losses exhibit distinct scaling behavior per task and rank tokenizers differently, and that I2T loss over a shared text vocabulary gives a more consistent loss–performance signal than T2I loss. Better reconstruction does not necessarily yield lower task-specific losses or stronger downstream performance, and tokenizer choice can affect text modeling under joint optimization. Case studies examine the discriminator, semantic supervision, and vocabulary size design axes.

Hugging Face daily papers·Sep 7, 20:00 UTC · 8d agoAI research1

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SAS: Simple Attention Sparsification via End-to-End Optimization of Context Ranking

SAS trains attention sparsification end-to-end with the language modeling loss, beating sparse attention baselines especially under tight context budgets.

Simple Attention Sparsification (SAS) injects the selector's continuous scores into attention logits in log form inside the softmax, letting gradients from the language modeling loss directly update the ranking of context units. The method uses normalized softmax gates calibrated against the current block and a memory-efficient Triton kernel integrated into FlashAttention-style computation. Across reasoning, long-context, and agentic tasks, SAS consistently outperforms trainable sparse attention baselines across budgets, with the largest gains under tight attention budgets.

Hugging Face daily papers·updated Sep 11, 17:58 UTC · 4d ago·first Sep 10, 20:00 UTC · 5d agoAI research 2 sources1

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Generative Marketing Mix Modeling: A Causal Inference Framework Linking GEO and GEM to Business Impact

Paper proposes Generative Marketing Mix Modeling to causally estimate Generative Engine Optimization and Marketing effects on business outcomes.

The authors develop GMMM, a causal inference framework for measuring how often users see and notice a firm's name in generated answers, which standard marketing data ignore. For GEO it combines repeated generated answers with question counts, shares of generative-system usage and notice probabilities; for GEM it uses sponsored placement records with notice probabilities. The framework compares expected business responses under alternative treatment sequences, establishes identification conditions, and is evaluated on simulated product-recommendation answers in English and Japanese.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 10, 17:57 UTC · 5d agoAI research

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Domain-Incremental Learning for Multi-Channel Replay Speech Detection

First continual learning benchmark for multi-channel replay speech detection shows task-specific beamforming cuts catastrophic forgetting across 24 acoustic environments.

Researchers frame replay-attack detection for voice-controlled systems as domain-incremental learning over acoustic environments, evaluating a beamformer-based detector across all 24 environment orderings of the ReMASC corpus with five seeds. Naive sequential fine-tuning raises error rates on previously learned environments by 18.8 points, while elastic weight consolidation halves forgetting but loses plasticity and gradient projection memory is statistically indistinguishable from naive fine-tuning. A task-specific beamformer keeping one spatial front-end per environment significantly improves final and incremental accuracy, and the last environment in a sequence dominates final performance.

arXiv cs.CR·Sep 10, 08:03 UTC · 6d agoResearch1

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Data Scarcity and Model Sparsity: Mixtures-of-Experts Overfit More to Repeated Data

Study finds Mixture-of-Experts models overfit faster than dense Transformers under repeated training data, with degradation tied to total parameter sparsity.

Across models from 80M to 1B active parameters (8.5B total), MoE architectures degrade more rapidly than dense models when training data is repeated, with the effect increasing with sparsity as dictated by total parameters. Dense 80M models tolerate 8x repetition with minimal loss while MoEs suffer at 4x and underperform dense models beyond 32x. Masking-based regularization such as dropout mitigates overfitting, letting MoEs beat dense models even at over 64x repetition, though no method matches all-unique training data. Routing stabilizes early and expert specialization correlates with overfitting to repeated data.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 10, 17:57 UTC · 5d agoAI research

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Causal Foundation Models

A paper introduces causal foundation models (CFMs): pretrained networks that estimate treatment effects on new datasets via in-context learning without fine-tuning.

Causal foundation models (CFMs) apply the foundation-model paradigm to causal inference, replacing bespoke per-problem estimator pipelines with networks pretrained once at scale. CFMs estimate causal quantities such as the average treatment effect on entirely new datasets through in-context learning, without model updates. The work serves as a practical introduction to the emerging area, covering background in causal inference and machine learning and including example code and Jupyter notebooks.

Hugging Face daily papers·Sep 1, 20:00 UTC · 14d agoAI research

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Convergent Emergence of In-Context Learning Across Modalities

Controlled experiments show few-shot in-context learning emerges across six modalities including language, genomes, images, and proteins, partially supporting a convergence hypothesis.

The paper tests the Convergent Emergence Hypothesis: that few-shot in-context learning, when it emerges, shares a common cross-modality difficulty profile. A controlled framework instantiated the same task suite across six modalities: language, genome, integer sequences, time series, images, and proteins. Paired-mapping ICL emerged in all six modalities, surpassed controlled baselines, and showed correlated per-task effects in five of them, providing partial support for the hypothesis.

Hugging Face daily papers·Sep 11, 20:00 UTC · 4d agoAI research

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Learning with Covariance Matrices: Principal Component Analysis Meets Learning with Graphs

Theoretical tutorial establishes equivalence between covariance neural networks and PCA, with stability and transferability bounds and brain-age applications.

The paper reviews the theory of coVariance neural networks (VNNs), graph neural networks that operate on covariance matrices as graphs. It derives a conceptual equivalence between VNNs and PCA-based information processing, refined stability bounds under finite-sample covariance perturbations, and transferability characterizations across multiscale datasets. Demonstrated applications include brain age gap estimation for neurodegenerative conditions from neuroimaging data.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 9, 17:28 UTC · 6d agoAI research1

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Quenched Ensemble Sampling

Quenched Ensemble Sampling generalizes nested sampling's hard energy constraint to repulsive potentials, traversing first-order phase transitions where tempering fails.

Quenched Ensemble Sampling generalizes nested sampling's hard energy constraint into a family of repulsive potentials at the energy boundary, preserving monotone energy descent while making the constrained target amenable to scalable gradient-based kernels. On synthetic phase-transition models it estimates marginal likelihood and draws posterior samples across first-order transitions where popular alternatives such as tempering fail. Applications include marginal likelihood estimation for Bayesian neural network architecture comparison and partition function estimation in a high-dimensional continuous lattice field theory.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 14, 17:16 UTC · 1d agoAI research1

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Bridging Control, Inference, Transport, and Thermodynamics: From Theory to Applications in Learning

Review connects control theory, optimal transport, probabilistic inference, thermodynamics, and machine learning via free-energy optimization under constraints.

The review unifies five fields: control theory, optimal transport, probabilistic inference, non-equilibrium thermodynamics, and machine learning. The common conceptual thread is optimization of free-energy-like functionals under dynamical or statistical constraints. Selected applications are presented in reinforcement learning, variational inference, and generative modeling. The tutorial-style text assumes no prior familiarity and begins from physics principles.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 14, 17:16 UTC · 1d agoAI research

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Competence-Gated Pooling of Language Models and Priors for Event Forecasting

Paper proposes a competence gate pooling language model forecasts with external priors, improving Brier score from 0.0771 to 0.0732 across 2,357 binary questions.

The paper defines a language model's relative competence as its marginal value beyond an available external forecast, and derives conditions under Brier loss where model disagreement improves that forecast. A competence gate estimates domain-level source weights from resolved outcomes, shrinks uncertain estimates toward a global weight, and recalibrates the pooled forecast. Across 2,357 resolved binary questions and five language models, it improves the external baseline from 0.0771 to 0.0732 Brier and beats global forecast combinations, though it defers to the market on ForecastBench. Across four Qwen models, verbal confidence failed to identify when the model outperformed the external forecast, while outcome-estimated competence supported better abstention.

Hugging Face daily papers·Sep 9, 20:00 UTC · 6d agoAI research

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Not All Prompts Are Equal: Exploration-Guided Prompt Scaffolding for Multimodal Reinforcement Post-Training

Exploration-guided prompt scaffolding rewrites training prompts by Exploration Potential Score, boosting multimodal RL post-training accuracy up to 11.5%.

The paper proposes dynamically adapting the training prompt distribution during online RL post-training of multimodal LLMs using the Exploration Potential Score (EPS), a lightweight rollout-based proxy for prompt utility computed from on-policy statistics with no additional overhead. Rather than discarding low-utility prompts, a teacher model generates scaffolded rewrites that preserve task intent while making training more informative. Integrated with GRPO on Geo3K and MMK12, the method achieves up to 9.7% relative in-domain improvement plus 11.5% on MathVision and 11.1% on MMMU-Pro.

Hugging Face daily papers·Sep 13, 20:00 UTC · 2d agoAI research

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Forgetting Only What Matters: Layer-Selective Unlearning toward Robust LLMs

Researchers introduce FOM-UL, a layer-selective machine unlearning framework that improves forgetting-utility trade-offs and resists knowledge recovery after quantization.

FOM-UL selects transformer layers for unlearning using a forget-to-retain significance score, concentrating parameter updates on layers highly influential for the forget set while leaving most of the model unchanged. It reduces residual memorization versus GA, NPO, KLD, SURE, ReLearn, and LUNAR-based baselines on TOFU, KnowUnDo, and MUSE-style evaluations while preserving retain-set utility. Under 8-bit and 4-bit post-training quantization and adversarial prompts, it maintains stronger suppression of forgotten content, addressing brittleness of diffuse unlearning updates.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 9, 16:50 UTC · 6d agoAI research1

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Bag of Tricks or Bag of Myths? Reducing Modeling Complexity with Task Knowledge in Explainable Suicide Risk Assessment

Researchers audit 31 NLP techniques for clinician-annotated suicide risk prediction, finding only 5 of 31 comparisons yield reliable gains.

A study of 1,635 clinician-annotated social media posts ran roughly 300 controlled experiments across 7 methodological families, auditing techniques such as model scaling, synthetic data, ensembling, and threshold tuning under severe class imbalance. The proposed system reformulates risk factor prediction as entailment between posts and codebook definitions, using architecturally diverse ensembles with class-balanced training and deployment-consistent calibration. It scores 0.8203 for risk, 0.7953 for evidence, and 0.7045 macro-F1 for factors, ranking third among 53 teams.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 7, 17:14 UTC · 8d agoAI research

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MAxBench: A Multinomial Concept Recovery Benchmark

MAxBench evaluates multinomial concept recovery methods, finding affine subspaces steer most reliably but none consistently beats prompting.

MAxBench is a geometry-agnostic evaluation framework for multinomial concept representations in language models, based on sampling from recovered concept representations. It compares 10 localization methods covering 5 geometry types across 6 concepts and 4 models. Findings show affine subspaces steer more reliably than rank-one or linear subspaces due to better non-zero offsets, manifold steering is competitive where applicable, and no method consistently outperforms prompting.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 11, 17:08 UTC · 4d agoAI research

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SQS: Bayesian DNN Compression through Sparse Quantized Sub-distributions

SQS unifies weight pruning and low-bit quantization via Bayesian variational learning, compressing Llama3.2 and Qwen2.5 at higher rates with comparable accuracy.

SQS introduces a unified Bayesian variational framework performing simultaneous pruning and low-bit quantization, using a spike-and-slab prior for sparsity and Gaussian Mixture Models to model quantized weights. The authors derive an efficient approximation for the intractable objective and provide a consistency result for the variational approach. Experiments on ResNet, BERT-base, Llama3.2, and Qwen2.5 show higher compression rates than prior baselines with comparable performance drops.

Hugging Face daily papers·Sep 6, 20:00 UTC · 9d agoAI research

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Beyond Top-k Skill Retrieval: Diversity-Aware Skill Routing for LLM Agents

DSR reranks LLM agent skills with Determinantal Point Processes to favor complementary, non-redundant sets, improving multi-skill query coverage.

The paper proposes Diverse Skill Routing (DSR), a diversity-aware reranking framework for LLM agent skill routing that uses a Determinantal Point Process to balance query relevance and non-redundancy across large skill registries. DSR introduces a query-residual diversity kernel that penalizes redundant skill overlap while avoiding penalties arising only from shared query relevance. On the SkillRouter benchmark, DSR improves recall and full coverage over a strong pointwise reranking baseline, with the largest gains on multi-skill queries. The authors argue skill routing should be treated as complementary set selection, not just relevance ranking.

Hugging Face daily papers·Sep 4, 20:00 UTC · 11d agoAI research

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Do speech foundation models really learn words?

Researchers show via residualization that later layers of HuBERT and wav2vec 2.0 encode word identity and semantics independently of phonetic content.

The study argues that discriminative ability on words does not imply specialized word representations, since good word discrimination can be explained by phoneme encoding alone. By partialling out phoneme information using residualization, the authors show that later layers of HuBERT and wav2vec 2.0 encode words with reasonable fidelity independently of local phonetic content. Applying this disentanglement approach enhances higher-order linguistic information in word discovery tasks, informing analysis of speech foundation models used for recognition and speech tokens.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 9, 16:47 UTC · 6d agoAI research

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