Search: “uncertainty estimation”

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Kalman Delta Networks: Uncertainty-aware Associative Memory

Researchers propose Kalman Delta Networks, adding Kalman-filter uncertainty tracking to delta-rule linear attention, improving perplexity and accuracy at 750M and 1.3B parameters.

The paper introduces Kalman Delta Networks (KDNs), which reformulate recurrent associative memory in linear-attention models as a linear-Gaussian state-space model where the Kalman gain weights each write by accumulated evidence and observation reliability. Two scan-compatible approximations, Diagonal KDN via online mean-field variational inference and Isotropic KDN with a single uncertainty scalar per head, enable associative scans with logarithmic parallel depth. Delta-rule updates are shown to be a special case of this formulation. KDN variants consistently improve perplexity and mean downstream accuracy over state-of-the-art linear-attention baselines in controlled pretraining at 750M and 1.3B parameters.

Hugging Face daily papers·Sep 6, 20:00 UTC · 9d agoAI research

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Kalman Delta Networks: Uncertainty-aware Associative Memory

Kalman Delta Networks add uncertainty tracking to linear-attention associative memory, improving perplexity and downstream accuracy at 750M and 1.3B scales.

Kalman Delta Networks reformulate recurrent associative memory in linear-attention models as a linear-Gaussian state-space model, allowing the Kalman gain to weight each residual write by accumulated evidence and observation reliability; Delta-rule updates emerge as a special case lacking covariance tracking. Two scan-compatible approximations, Diagonal KDN (online mean-field variational inference) and Isotropic KDN (one uncertainty scalar per head), produce Mobius-map uncertainty recurrences enabling associative scans with logarithmic parallel depth. Controlled pretraining at 750M and 1.3B parameters consistently improves perplexity and mean downstream accuracy over state-of-the-art linear-attention models.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 7, 17:53 UTC · 8d agoAI research1

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ENCP: Episode-Normalized Conformal Prediction for Vision-and-Language Navigation

ENCP calibrates conformal prediction per navigation episode, giving step-level coverage guarantees for vision-language navigation agents despite within-episode dependence.

Episode-Normalized Conformal Prediction (ENCP) rescales a nonconformity score by a VLN policy's residual confidence and calibrates one maximum score per episode, preserving step-level coverage of at least 1−α despite dependence among steps within an episode. Across four VLN policies and three nonconformity scores on R2R and REVERIE, ENCP meets all reported empirical step-coverage targets in seen-to-unseen evaluation. The model-agnostic uncertainty estimates can signal when an agent should defer to a stronger predictor or human assistance.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 15, 17:42 UTC · 23h agoAI research

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A Ranking Approach for Measuring Calibration

Researchers propose rankECE, a ranking-based calibration error measure with theoretical guarantees that outperforms binned ECE approximations.

The paper introduces rankECE, an alternative to Expected Calibration Error (ECE) that measures miscalibration by comparing points with neighboring predicted-probability values. It addresses the impossibility of estimating ECE with guaranteed accuracy in assumption-free settings. Theoretical guarantees and empirical results establish rankECE as a better proxy for ECE than the binned approximations most commonly used in practice.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 11, 17:34 UTC · 4d agoAI research1

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Understanding the Privacy-Preserving Potential of HTTP/2 Against Webpage Fingerprinting

Researchers show HTTP/2 features can emulate website fingerprinting defenses like FRONT and Tamaraw with tunable privacy-overhead trade-offs.

An arXiv paper demonstrates that application-layer defenses such as HTTPOS, LLaMA, FRONT, ALPaCA, and Tamaraw can be emulated through HTTP/2 features at both the client and server side, including proactive resource suggestion, multiplexing, and flow control. The authors propose a unified evaluation blueprint that calibrates defense parameters per dataset, combines practical attacks with information-theoretic leakage estimators, and measures overheads to map each defense's privacy-overhead trade-offs.

arXiv cs.CR·Sep 4, 13:16 UTC · 12d agoResearch

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The Price of Sparsity: Sufficient Conditions for Sparse Recovery using Sparse and Sparsified Measurements

Researchers derive sufficient sample-size conditions for recovering sparse binary signals from sparse Gaussian measurements, quantifying an information-theoretic threshold of order slog(p/s)/log(ds/p).

The paper studies support recovery of sparse binary signals from noisy linear measurements. For sparse Gaussian designs, the authors identify sufficient minimal sample sizes for maximum-likelihood recovery in the high-SNR regime d*s/p -> infinity, yielding an information-theoretic threshold of order slog(p/s)/log(ds/p) that makes the price of measurement sparsity explicit. They also show a regime where the sample-complexity loss from sparsity is only logarithmic while computational gains are nearly linear, and prove that for independently sparsified dense Gaussian designs a sample size of order p/ψ² suffices for support recovery at any fixed error level.

Hugging Face daily papers·Sep 7, 20:00 UTC · 8d agoAI research

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What Does an LLM-Agent Leaderboard Rank Actually Compare?

A methodological study shows close LLM-agent leaderboard rank gaps on SWE-bench and similar benchmarks often do not support superiority claims.

The paper defines an estimand-aware pairwise procedure for comparing agents, checking common support and applying explicit uncertainty rules and practical margins. Across SWE-bench, AgentRewardBench, and tau2-bench, close rank differences are frequently unresolved, and proxy labels or utility rules can change which system is selected. The authors argue a leaderboard score summarizes a released evaluation but does not by itself justify pairwise superiority conclusions.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 7, 17:31 UTC · 8d agoAI research

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A positive resolution of the gap-entropy conjecture

New proof resolves the gap-entropy conjecture for Gaussian bandits, bounding optimal best-arm identification samples by H(log(1/delta)+Ent(I)) up to constants.

A paper proves the gap-entropy conjecture for fixed-confidence best-arm identification with independent unit-variance Gaussian arms, means in [0,1], and a unique optimal arm. It shows the optimal expected sample count, averaged over arm-label permutations, is within absolute constant factors of H(log(1/delta)+Ent(I)), where H sums squared gaps and Ent(I) is the instance's gap-entropy. It also gives an instance-independent algorithm bounded by a constant multiple of this quantity plus a g^-2 loglog(e^e/g) term for the smallest gap g.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 9, 17:57 UTC · 6d agoAI research

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Google's new AI model predicts the future from sales data, weather, and discount schedules

Google Research released TimesFM-3, a 330M-parameter multivariate time series forecasting model that tops Gift-Eval, FEV-Bench, and Time benchmarks and is on Hugging Face.

Google Research released TimesFM-3, a 330-million-parameter Transformer-based time series forecasting model trained on more than one trillion real and synthetic data points. It works zero-shot and adds multivariate support, ingesting related series, historical-only covariates, and known future events such as discount schedules and weather forecasts, while filling all future time steps in a single one-shot pass. Google reports first place among pretrained forecasting models on Gift-Eval, FEV-Bench, and Time, ahead of Amazon's Chronos-2, the Toto-2.0 family, and its own TimesFM-2.5. Weights are available on GitHub and Hugging Face, with BigQuery integration planned in the coming weeks.

The Decoder·Sep 12, 09:26 UTC · 4d agoModel release2

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Likelihood-free inference with nuisance parameters through normalizing flows

Researchers decompose normalizing flows to derive near-pivotal statistics for likelihood-free inference with nuisance parameters, recovering the t-test and beating Welch limits.

A new paper decomposes neural-network normalizing flows to uncover pivotal statistics in the presence of nuisance parameters using only a sample generator from the distribution of interest. The statistic is near-pivotal in the sense of minimum average KL-divergence of its p-values and can incorporate prior knowledge of group invariances such as translation and scale. Experiments show it recovers the one-sample t-test almost exactly, outperforms the Welch test on worst-case size over a constrained variance-ratio range, and delivers higher power and much faster runtime than profile likelihood-ratio techniques on small-to-moderate samples.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 9, 17:58 UTC · 6d agoAI research

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Jev: New frontier model 40-400x cheaper and 20-200x faster

TypeSafe AI launches Jev, an early-access 'System One' model delivering calibrated structured outputs claimed 40-400x faster and cheaper than LLMs.

TypeSafe AI, founded by former OpenAI researcher Diogo Almeida, released its first 'System One Model' called Jev in early access. Jev forgoes string generation and is trained with Reinforcement Learning for Calibrated Decisions (RLCD) to produce type-safe structured values with calibrated probabilities. The company claims 70-500ms response times (40-200x faster), input pricing of $0.042 per million tokens, and free output tokens via a parallel sampling architecture. Target use cases include AI-powered workflows, real-time applications, and verification/guardrail tasks.

Hacker News · security·Sep 15, 19:25 UTC · 21h agoModel releaseHN 59↑ · 11 comments

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Quantile-based Loss Filtering for Outlier-Robust Stochastic Gradient Descent

Quantile-k-Loss SGD filters corrupted component losses by quantile sampling, proving linear convergence while outperforming standard and min-k-loss SGD.

The paper proposes Quantile-k-Loss SGD (Q(k)L-SGD), a loss-filtering framework for finite-sum optimization with corrupted components that samples k losses per iteration and updates using an index from the lower empirical q-quantile. The authors prove linear convergence under standard convexity, requiring sample size to scale with the number of corruptions, plus a complementary small-sample probabilistic analysis. Experiments on polynomial regression, regularized logistic regression, and hinge loss show intermediate quantiles often outperform both standard SGD and min-k-loss SGD.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 11, 16:38 UTC · 5d agoAI research

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Verify Before You Distill: Prompt-Level Teacher Gating for On-Policy Distillation

TGOPD verifies teacher reliability per prompt before on-policy distillation, outperforming vanilla OPD across math, code, and instruction benchmarks.

Teacher-Gated On-Policy Distillation (TGOPD) estimates teacher reliability from verifier-scored teacher probes and routes each prompt either to dense on-policy distillation or to verifier-grounded GRPO, avoiding misleading updates from confidently wrong teachers under mode-seeking reverse KL. Across 4B and 35B students in mathematics, code, and instruction following, TGOPD outperforms vanilla OPD in all six single-domain settings and achieves higher seven-benchmark averages under multi-domain training. It also raises teacher-node GPU utilization from 9.8% to 78.9% in the measured 4B single-domain run by reusing idle teacher capacity.

Hugging Face daily papers·Sep 1, 20:00 UTC · 14d agoAI research

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Measuring benchmark optimization in speech recognition

Hugging Face examines how much speech recognition systems overfit benchmarks and how to measure benchmark optimization in ASR.

A Hugging Face post on measuring benchmark optimization in automatic speech recognition, analyzing how model improvements on benchmarks reflect genuine capability gains versus overfitting. It is evaluation methodology research with no direct security impact.

Hugging Face Blog·Aug 21, 00:00 UTC · 26d agoAI research

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What must happen for AI’s trillion-dollar gamble to pay off

Hyperscalers need 2.7x productivity gains by 2030 to justify nearly $1.1 trillion in AI data center spending, or risk bankruptcy and capital misallocation.

Wharton finance professor Jessica Wachter estimates hyperscaler AI expenditure will reach nearly $1.1 trillion through 2027 and that a 2.7x productivity increase is needed to break even by 2030. AI revenues of roughly $150-200 billion this year fall far short of about $750 billion in annual spending, with total investment from Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, and Oracle potentially exceeding $5 trillion over four years. Alphabet reported its first free cash flow deficit (about $5.9 billion) since its 2004 IPO due to AI infrastructure costs. Researchers warn that failed demand could make the buildout the largest capital misallocation in history, with depreciating GPU chips risking stranded assets.

MIT Technology Review · AI·Sep 15, 10:00 UTC · 1d agoAI industry

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Reduced-Space Multi-Fidelity Bayesian Optimization of Process Simulation Models

RS-MFBO couples global sensitivity analysis with fidelity-augmented Gaussian processes to slash costly high-fidelity simulation runs in industrial flowsheet optimization.

The paper presents RS-MFBO, a reduced-space multi-fidelity Bayesian optimization framework for high-dimensional, expensive black-box functions. It integrates Global Sensitivity Analysis for dimensionality reduction with a fidelity-augmented Gaussian process and a cost-aware acquisition strategy featuring cooldown and promotion mechanisms. Validation on a plasmid DNA bioprocess (SuperPro Designer) and a green fuel synthesis plant (Aspen HYSYS) shows substantial reductions in high-fidelity evaluations while remaining competitive with single-fidelity baselines.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 15, 16:46 UTC · 1d agoAI research

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OFAC Sanctions Chinese Scam Platform Xinbi Guarantee

US Treasury's OFAC sanctioned Chinese scam-platform Xinbi Guarantee, which processed $24bn+, and froze $52.8m in linked cryptoassets.

OFAC sanctioned Xinbi Guarantee, a Chinese-language marketplace connecting Southeast Asian scam centers and transnational crime syndicates to merchants offering financial services, technology and crypto exchange. Treasury estimates over $24bn processed since 2022, while TRM Labs estimates over $36bn, with daily inflows nearly doubling between May and December 2025. Two supporting entities were also sanctioned: SafeW Technology (Singapore) and Anwen Technology (Cambodia, maker of XinbiPay). The US Secret Service and Elliptic froze $52.8m in linked cryptoassets, and the marketplace now appears offline with its Telegram channels deleted.

Infosecurity Magazine·updated Sep 10, 21:15 UTC · 5d ago·first Sep 10, 08:00 UTC · 6d agoPolicy & legal 4 sources1

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General Quantification of Covariate and Concept Shifts

Paper proposes γ*-concept shifts via entropic optimal transport, deriving estimable generalization bounds unifying covariate and concept shift under distribution shift.

The authors show existing definitions of concept shift break when source and target supports mismatch and propose γ*-concept shifts grounded in entropic optimal transport. They derive a general error bound covering broad loss functions, label spaces and stochastic labeling, plus estimators with concentration guarantees. The resulting DataShifts algorithm quantifies distribution shifts and estimates the error bound in most applications, addressing learning bounds that were previously non-estimable from samples.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 10, 17:57 UTC · 5d agoAI research1

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When LLM judges agree, should we believe them?

Amazon ICML paper uses Ising models to correct correlated LLM-judge votes, beating accuracy-weighted panels by 9-14%.

Amazon Science describes an ICML paper, "Dependence-aware label aggregation for LLM-as-a-judge via Ising models," addressing how correlated judge outputs inflate majority-vote confidence. The unsupervised method models pairwise dependence between judges, learning both reliability and similarity without human reference labels. Tested on relevance, toxicity, and summarization tasks with 10 judge models at temperature zero, it outperformed accuracy-weighted voting by 9% to 14%.

Hacker News · AI·Sep 14, 16:29 UTC · 2d agoAI researchHN 41↑ · 23 comments

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Quenched Ensemble Sampling

Quenched Ensemble Sampling generalizes nested sampling's hard energy constraint to repulsive potentials, traversing first-order phase transitions where tempering fails.

Quenched Ensemble Sampling generalizes nested sampling's hard energy constraint into a family of repulsive potentials at the energy boundary, preserving monotone energy descent while making the constrained target amenable to scalable gradient-based kernels. On synthetic phase-transition models it estimates marginal likelihood and draws posterior samples across first-order transitions where popular alternatives such as tempering fail. Applications include marginal likelihood estimation for Bayesian neural network architecture comparison and partition function estimation in a high-dimensional continuous lattice field theory.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 14, 17:16 UTC · 1d agoAI research1

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Will AI kill us all within the next decade?

Anthropic alignment lead Evan Hubinger says he personally estimates a greater than 10% chance AI could kill all humans within the next decade.

A Wall Street Journal report says concerns are rising inside AI labs that competition is pushing companies toward self-improving models that could spiral out of human control. Anthropic's Alignment Science lead Evan Hubinger publicly endorsed researcher Jacob Coxon's warning, giving a personal estimate of a greater than 10% chance of AI causing human extinction within a decade, driven by recursive self-improvement. Hubinger described the risk from current models as low, focusing his concern on future systems with far greater autonomy. The piece argues for safeguards such as independent testing, limits on high-risk autonomous uses, transparency, and accountability.

Malwarebytes Labs·Sep 10, 12:18 UTC · 6d agoAI safety & security

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Algorithmic stability via ensembling

Theoretical work derives a general framework quantifying stability guarantees for averaging-based ensembles under arbitrary data perturbations via covariance operator norms.

The paper develops a framework for quantifying algorithmic stability of ensembling strategies defined via averaging, for varied types of data perturbation. The main result bounds the stability of the ensembled algorithm in terms of the norm of a covariance operator describing the ensembling process. The framework yields interpretable insights across practical perturbation examples and provides sharper guarantees than those derived from differential privacy considerations.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 9, 16:39 UTC · 7d agoAI research

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[AINews] GPT-6 Astra: OpenAI’s biggest LLM launch of all time

OpenAI launched GPT-6 Astra, its new flagship model, claiming state-of-the-art computer use, software engineering, math, and cybersecurity capabilities.

OpenAI launched GPT-6 Astra as its new flagship model, describing it as its most intelligent and aligned model with state-of-the-art computer use, software engineering, and math/science capabilities. Pricing is $10/$50 per 1M input/output tokens standard ($20/$100 fast tier), rolling out first to limited organizations, then ChatGPT Plus/Pro/Business/Enterprise, the API, and AWS. OpenAI claims 99.9% on ARC-AGI-3, 98% on FrontierMath Tier 4, and 100% on ExploitBench. Artificial Analysis scored Astra 67 on the Coding Agent Index and 61 on the Intelligence Index, behind Claude Fable 5.1, and the system card drew attention for reporting decreased chain-of-thought monitorability despite alignment gains.

Latent Space·Sep 4, 05:18 UTC · 12d agoModel release3

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TransNormal-2: Geometry-Grounded Rectified Flow with Edge-Aware Decoding for Precise Normal Estimation

TransNormal-2 improves monocular surface-normal estimation by fixing VAE edge degradation with geometry-aware losses and refinement, matching MoGe-2 with 1.4% of annotations.

TransNormal-2 is a FLUX.2-based rectified-flow framework for monocular surface-normal estimation with single-step deterministic inference. The authors quantify that VAE 8x spatial compression introduces 1.3-8.5 degrees of mean angular error even on ground-truth normals, with edge error up to 2.8x the global error. The method adds geometry-aware pixel-space losses and an RGB-guided Geometric Refinement Module to correct boundary-localized decoding errors. It matches or exceeds MoGe-2 on all eight reported metrics using only 1.4% as many task-specific annotations, and cuts transparent-object MAE by 4.2 degrees on ClearGrasp and 3.1 degrees on ClearPose.

Hugging Face daily papers·Sep 5, 20:00 UTC · 10d agoAI research

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Why The Vulnerability Backlog Is About To Get Worse

Recorded Future analysis says AI-driven vulnerability discovery and faster weaponization will grow the triage backlog while shrinking defenders' response windows.

Disclosed vulnerabilities rose from roughly 21,000 in 2021 to nearly 50,000 in 2025, while Recorded Future assessed only 446 as actively exploited in 2025. VulnCheck found nearly 29% of 2025 KEV entries were exploited on or before CVE publication. The authors argue AI-assisted discovery and automated exploit development will multiply credible reports, cut disclosure-to-exploit time toward minutes, and force re-evaluation of medium-severity flaws as exploit-chain components.

Recorded Future·Aug 26, 00:00 UTC · 21d agoResearch

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Understanding the Impact of Model Pruning on Long-Tail Forgetting and Explanation Reliability in Medical Imaging

Systematic study finds model pruning causes frequency-dependent long-tail forgetting in medical imaging and that gradient-informed methods best preserve explanations.

Across two long-tailed medical imaging datasets, two CNN architectures, four pruning methods, and sparsity up to 95%, the study measures predictive performance, explanation stability, and faithfulness. Rare classes degrade earlier and more severely than frequent ones, while explanation reliability depends mainly on the pruning strategy, with gradient-informed methods degrading least. Mechanistic analysis ties explanation collapse to loss of class-discriminative gradients rather than vanishing feature activations, recommending class- and explanation-aware evaluation of compression.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 7, 17:44 UTC · 8d agoAI research

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Cognition launches new SWE-2 model, Rivaling Fable 5.1 and GPT-Astra

Cognition released SWE-2, a coding model post-trained from Kimi K3 that scores 50.0% on FrontierCode 1.1 Main, near Fable 5.1 at 64% lower cost.

Cognition introduced SWE-2, its most advanced coding model, post-trained from the 2.8T-parameter Kimi K3 base model. It achieves 50.0% on FrontierCode 1.1 Main, 73.0% on DeepSWE 1.1, and 92.8% on Terminal-Bench 2.1, beating Grok 4.6 and SWE-1.7 while matching Fable 5.1 and GPT-5.6 Sol at a fraction of the price. The company says it scaled reinforcement learning to the multi-trillion-parameter regime for the first time, using Pareto-informed cost penalties that train all reasoning-effort levels in a single run, tripled RL environments, and NVFP4/FP8 quantization-aware training. SWE-2 is available today in Devin Desktop and CLI, with rollout on Devin Web and Fusion.

Hacker News · AI·updated Sep 12, 20:00 UTC · 3d ago·first Sep 10, 15:29 UTC · 6d agoModel release 10 sourcesHN 58↑ · 15 comments1

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Lightweight Vision Transformer Compression for On-Device Plant Disease Detection in Resource-Constrained Agricultural Field Conditions

A unified ViT compression pipeline (H-BAC pruning, quantization, distillation) cuts plant-disease models 54.5x to 6.01 MB while keeping 95.13% accuracy.

Researchers combined Hessian-Balanced Adaptive Block Pruning (H-BAC), guided by second-order sensitivity estimation, with quantization and attention-based knowledge distillation to compress Vision Transformers for on-device chilli plant disease detection in India. On a 3-class cross-village, cross-device out-of-distribution dataset, the integrated pipeline reduced model size from 327.42 MB to 6.01 MB (54.5x) at 95.13 +/- 2.32% accuracy, matching the 95.13% FP32 baseline. Ablations also show a directly trained 6.01 MB INT8 student reaches 94.87% accuracy, indicating where pruning and distillation add limited value.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 4, 16:40 UTC · 12d agoAI research

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One resignation turned the embers of AI fear into a wildfire

Interconnects argues a frontier-lab researcher's safety resignation went viral via media coordination, reigniting AI existential-risk discourse.

The essay analyzes why researcher Jacob Coxon's resignation over AI safety risks went viral, aided by a Wall Street Journal exclusive, advocacy-group amplification, and Daniel Kokotajlo's same-day Joe Rogan appearance. It notes Evan Hubinger's >10% extinction-risk figure and criticizes existential-risk discourse for conflating very different meanings of the term. The author assigns near-zero probability to complete extinction but argues concrete risks such as cyberattacks on critical infrastructure and bio-risks merit debate. It also rejects recursive self-improvement forecasts, proposing 'lossy self-improvement' where models excel at math and code but remain limited elsewhere.

Interconnects·Sep 10, 15:28 UTC · 6d agoAI safety & security

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PLC-DPO: Posterior Label Correction in Noisy and Ambiguous Preference Optimization

PLC-DPO corrects noisy preference labels during DPO by routing each pair as clean, flip, or tie using calibrated policy-reference margins.

PLC-DPO addresses reversed, weak, or ambiguous preference labels in Direct Preference Optimization by using the calibrated policy-reference margin as online evidence to route each pair's training signal as clean, flip, or tie. This actively corrects supervision direction and strength rather than only filtering suspicious examples. Across 57 dataset-model-benchmark cells, PLC-DPO achieves the best mean win rate of 60.5 versus 55.5 for the next-best method. Injected-noise and tie stress tests plus human disagreement analysis show the routing stays stable and distinguishes flipped from weakly directional pairs.

Hugging Face daily papers·Aug 30, 20:00 UTC · 16d agoAI research

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Competence-Gated Pooling of Language Models and Priors for Event Forecasting

Paper proposes a competence gate pooling language model forecasts with external priors, improving Brier score from 0.0771 to 0.0732 across 2,357 binary questions.

The paper defines a language model's relative competence as its marginal value beyond an available external forecast, and derives conditions under Brier loss where model disagreement improves that forecast. A competence gate estimates domain-level source weights from resolved outcomes, shrinks uncertain estimates toward a global weight, and recalibrates the pooled forecast. Across 2,357 resolved binary questions and five language models, it improves the external baseline from 0.0771 to 0.0732 Brier and beats global forecast combinations, though it defers to the market on ForecastBench. Across four Qwen models, verbal confidence failed to identify when the model outperformed the external forecast, while outcome-estimated competence supported better abstention.

Hugging Face daily papers·Sep 9, 20:00 UTC · 6d agoAI research

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Harnessing CLIP and DINO: An Uncertainty-Aware Cascaded Fusion Network for Generalizable Deepfake Image Detection

UCF-Net fuses CLIP and DINO features with entropy-based uncertainty weighting to improve generalizable deepfake image detection across generators.

Researchers propose UCF-Net, an uncertainty-aware cascaded fusion network that combines CLIP's language-aligned semantic priors with DINO's self-supervised visual-structure priors for deepfake detection. It aggregates hierarchical features across transformer depths via layer-wise expert modules and performs weighted fusion driven by entropy-derived uncertainty. The authors consolidate public deepfake datasets into a unified benchmark of roughly 4 million images plus a cross-generator set of over 8,000 faces from eight recent generators, where UCF-Net achieves the best mean AUC among evaluated methods, though zero-shot transfer remains challenging.

Hugging Face daily papers·Sep 6, 20:00 UTC · 9d agoAI research

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Det-LIME: Detector-Aware, Multi-Instance Local Interpretable Model-Agnostic Explanations for Automated Marine Mammal Detection

Det-LIME extends LIME to multi-instance object detection explanations, improving attribution for harbor seal aerial surveys.

Det-LIME adapts LIME to object detection by combining per-detection weighting, a proximity kernel emphasizing box-adjacent regions, and IoU-based matching to track instances across perturbations. It was evaluated on aerial drone imagery for harbor seal detection plus a seabird case study, and compared against vanilla LIME, Stabilized LIME, Deterministic LIME, and gradient-based attribution. Using Attribution Ratio and Max Saliency Hit Rate metrics, it consistently improved multi-instance attribution and produced box-aligned explanations useful for debugging and data augmentation.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 15, 17:20 UTC · 23h agoAI research

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SQS: Bayesian DNN Compression through Sparse Quantized Sub-distributions

SQS unifies weight pruning and low-bit quantization via Bayesian variational learning, compressing Llama3.2 and Qwen2.5 at higher rates with comparable accuracy.

SQS introduces a unified Bayesian variational framework performing simultaneous pruning and low-bit quantization, using a spike-and-slab prior for sparsity and Gaussian Mixture Models to model quantized weights. The authors derive an efficient approximation for the intractable objective and provide a consistency result for the variational approach. Experiments on ResNet, BERT-base, Llama3.2, and Qwen2.5 show higher compression rates than prior baselines with comparable performance drops.

Hugging Face daily papers·Sep 6, 20:00 UTC · 9d agoAI research

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Observational Indistinguishability and Integrity Blind Regions in Hybrid Quantum-Classical Workflows

Framework formalizes integrity blind regions in hybrid quantum-classical workflows, validated across 3,600 label interventions with conformal detection rules.

The paper presents a claim-relative evidence and reference framework for integrity of hybrid quantum-classical workflows, distinguishing structural blind regions caused by observational indistinguishability from finite-batch statistical misses. Experiments over 3,600 label interventions show exact label-path invariance for feature and prediction views. The geometry-aligned construction detects 343 of 2,700 conclusion-changing interventions using the conformal rule and 1,183 of 2,700 with the uncorrected union, with executed conformal clean false-action rates of 0.048-0.059.

arXiv cs.CR·Sep 15, 13:16 UTC · 1d agoResearch

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A Generalization of Amari's Bayesian Duality

Paper generalizes Amari's Bayesian duality by connecting it to a convex duality of Bayes' rule.

The authors revisit Amari's less-known work on Bayesian duality from information geometry. They connect Bayesian duality to a convex duality formulation of Bayes' rule and present a generalization of it. The paper is purely theoretical and discusses relevance for modern AI, with no experiments or model releases.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 8, 17:51 UTC · 7d agoAI research

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Fine-tuning a 350M Model for Better Structured Outputs in 100 GRPO Steps

Hugging Face guide fine-tunes a 350M-parameter model with 100 GRPO steps to improve structured output reliability.

A Hugging Face blog post demonstrates fine-tuning a 350M-parameter model using GRPO (Group Relative Policy Optimization) with TRL over 100 training steps. The stated goal is more reliable structured outputs from small language models. No article body was available, so details beyond the title are limited.

Hugging Face Blog·Sep 3, 00:00 UTC · 13d agoAI tools & infra

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Robust Policy Optimization via Adversarial Importance Sampling

Adversarial Importance Sampling estimates worst-case RL returns without extra interactions; authors also release the advrl PyTorch library.

The paper introduces Advis, which uses importance sampling over trajectories from standard training to estimate and optimize verifiable worst-case returns, requiring no additional environment interactions or auxiliary networks. It also releases advrl, a modular PyTorch library of single-file robustness methods and adversarial attacks for reproducible evaluation. The authors show adversarial hyperparameters do not transfer across agents, so they evaluate with 6-14x more attacker configurations than prior work. Effectiveness is demonstrated on continuous control environments.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 11, 16:40 UTC · 5d agoAI research1

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Cross-Model Agreement as a Deployment-Time Reliability Signal for Automatic Polyp Segmentation

Referee-Based Quality Estimation flags unreliable polyp segmentations at inference without ground truth, reaching ROC-AUC 0.960 with SegFormer-B0 referees.

RBQE measures agreement between a primary segmentation model and an independently trained referee on a 1,223-image external benchmark drawn from four public datasets. A cross-architecture SegFormer-B0 referee achieves the strongest signal (ROC-AUC 0.960), beating a Test-Time Augmentation baseline by 0.055 ROC-AUC under an identical protocol. Excluding trivially separable empty-mask cases, ROC-AUC falls to 0.876 (SegFormer-B0) and 0.783 (same-architecture control), but RBQE's margin over baselines widens. Progressive rejection of low-agreement predictions increases mean Dice of retained outputs, supporting selective prediction at the cost of one extra forward pass.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 9, 17:32 UTC · 6d agoAI research

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Bridging the Confidence Gap: Temperature Scaling for Calibrating Test-Time Prompt Tuning

CoTS temperature scaling cuts test-time prompt tuning's expected calibration error from 11.90% to 5.38% on ImageNet variants while raising accuracy.

The paper proposes CoTS, a post-hoc calibration method that applies temperature scaling to minimize the confidence gap between test-time-adapted and zero-shot predictions. A weak-strong ensemble variant, E-CoTS, further exploits multiple test-time augmentations to boost accuracy while maintaining calibration. E-CoTS reduces average expected calibration error from 11.90% to 5.38% on ImageNet variants while increasing accuracy from 60.74% to 62.95%.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 15, 16:25 UTC · 1d agoAI research

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