Search: “uncertainty-estimation”

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A Ranking Approach for Measuring Calibration

Researchers propose rankECE, a ranking-based calibration error measure with theoretical guarantees that outperforms binned ECE approximations.

The paper introduces rankECE, an alternative to Expected Calibration Error (ECE) that measures miscalibration by comparing points with neighboring predicted-probability values. It addresses the impossibility of estimating ECE with guaranteed accuracy in assumption-free settings. Theoretical guarantees and empirical results establish rankECE as a better proxy for ECE than the binned approximations most commonly used in practice.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 11, 17:34 UTC · 5d agoAI research1

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Kalman Delta Networks: Uncertainty-aware Associative Memory

Researchers propose Kalman Delta Networks, adding Kalman-filter uncertainty tracking to delta-rule linear attention, improving perplexity and accuracy at 750M and 1.3B parameters.

The paper introduces Kalman Delta Networks (KDNs), which reformulate recurrent associative memory in linear-attention models as a linear-Gaussian state-space model where the Kalman gain weights each write by accumulated evidence and observation reliability. Two scan-compatible approximations, Diagonal KDN via online mean-field variational inference and Isotropic KDN with a single uncertainty scalar per head, enable associative scans with logarithmic parallel depth. Delta-rule updates are shown to be a special case of this formulation. KDN variants consistently improve perplexity and mean downstream accuracy over state-of-the-art linear-attention baselines in controlled pretraining at 750M and 1.3B parameters.

Hugging Face daily papers·Sep 6, 20:00 UTC · 10d agoAI research

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The Price of Sparsity: Sufficient Conditions for Sparse Recovery using Sparse and Sparsified Measurements

Researchers derive sufficient sample-size conditions for recovering sparse binary signals from sparse Gaussian measurements, quantifying an information-theoretic threshold of order slog(p/s)/log(ds/p).

The paper studies support recovery of sparse binary signals from noisy linear measurements. For sparse Gaussian designs, the authors identify sufficient minimal sample sizes for maximum-likelihood recovery in the high-SNR regime d*s/p -> infinity, yielding an information-theoretic threshold of order slog(p/s)/log(ds/p) that makes the price of measurement sparsity explicit. They also show a regime where the sample-complexity loss from sparsity is only logarithmic while computational gains are nearly linear, and prove that for independently sparsified dense Gaussian designs a sample size of order p/ψ² suffices for support recovery at any fixed error level.

Hugging Face daily papers·Sep 7, 20:00 UTC · 9d agoAI research

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Kalman Delta Networks: Uncertainty-aware Associative Memory

Kalman Delta Networks add uncertainty tracking to linear-attention associative memory, improving perplexity and downstream accuracy at 750M and 1.3B scales.

Kalman Delta Networks reformulate recurrent associative memory in linear-attention models as a linear-Gaussian state-space model, allowing the Kalman gain to weight each residual write by accumulated evidence and observation reliability; Delta-rule updates emerge as a special case lacking covariance tracking. Two scan-compatible approximations, Diagonal KDN (online mean-field variational inference) and Isotropic KDN (one uncertainty scalar per head), produce Mobius-map uncertainty recurrences enabling associative scans with logarithmic parallel depth. Controlled pretraining at 750M and 1.3B parameters consistently improves perplexity and mean downstream accuracy over state-of-the-art linear-attention models.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 7, 17:53 UTC · 9d agoAI research1

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A positive resolution of the gap-entropy conjecture

New proof resolves the gap-entropy conjecture for Gaussian bandits, bounding optimal best-arm identification samples by H(log(1/delta)+Ent(I)) up to constants.

A paper proves the gap-entropy conjecture for fixed-confidence best-arm identification with independent unit-variance Gaussian arms, means in [0,1], and a unique optimal arm. It shows the optimal expected sample count, averaged over arm-label permutations, is within absolute constant factors of H(log(1/delta)+Ent(I)), where H sums squared gaps and Ent(I) is the instance's gap-entropy. It also gives an instance-independent algorithm bounded by a constant multiple of this quantity plus a g^-2 loglog(e^e/g) term for the smallest gap g.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 9, 17:57 UTC · 7d agoAI research

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Likelihood-free inference with nuisance parameters through normalizing flows

Researchers decompose normalizing flows to derive near-pivotal statistics for likelihood-free inference with nuisance parameters, recovering the t-test and beating Welch limits.

A new paper decomposes neural-network normalizing flows to uncover pivotal statistics in the presence of nuisance parameters using only a sample generator from the distribution of interest. The statistic is near-pivotal in the sense of minimum average KL-divergence of its p-values and can incorporate prior knowledge of group invariances such as translation and scale. Experiments show it recovers the one-sample t-test almost exactly, outperforms the Welch test on worst-case size over a constrained variance-ratio range, and delivers higher power and much faster runtime than profile likelihood-ratio techniques on small-to-moderate samples.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 9, 17:58 UTC · 7d agoAI research

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Quantile-based Loss Filtering for Outlier-Robust Stochastic Gradient Descent

Quantile-k-Loss SGD filters corrupted component losses by quantile sampling, proving linear convergence while outperforming standard and min-k-loss SGD.

The paper proposes Quantile-k-Loss SGD (Q(k)L-SGD), a loss-filtering framework for finite-sum optimization with corrupted components that samples k losses per iteration and updates using an index from the lower empirical q-quantile. The authors prove linear convergence under standard convexity, requiring sample size to scale with the number of corruptions, plus a complementary small-sample probabilistic analysis. Experiments on polynomial regression, regularized logistic regression, and hinge loss show intermediate quantiles often outperform both standard SGD and min-k-loss SGD.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 11, 16:38 UTC · 5d agoAI research

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Securing quantum error correction against misleading advice from AI agents

Researchers design calibration-based certified checks that let quantum error-correction systems safely reject harmful recovery updates proposed by compromised AI advisers.

The paper shows that opposite coherent X rotations in an odd-distance square toric code yield identical passive syndrome histories, creating ambiguity an AI adviser could exploit to recommend harmful recovery updates. It introduces terminal logical measurements on calibration states plus an independent evaluator that accepts updates only when calibration uncertainty and drift bounds certify improvement. Simulated advice attacks showed calibration-confidence checks reject harmful proposals while retaining most beneficial updates, and the authors derive sufficient limits on calibration age.

arXiv cs.CR·Sep 16, 17:26 UTC · 12h agoAI safety & security

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Higher-order pruning of experts in mixture-of-experts language models

New HOPE method uses second-order objectives to prune Mixture-of-Experts LLMs, outperforming REAP at 50% pruning on models up to 122B parameters.

Researchers derive HOPE (Higher-Order Pruning of Experts), a second-order pruning objective for Mixture-of-Experts language models that provably minimizes an upper bound on pruning error by modeling cooperative expert interactions. They show REAP, a state-of-the-art first-order method, is a special case of HOPE with interaction terms ignored. Across three frontier MoE models up to 122B parameters, two calibration sets, and benchmarks covering math, instruction following, coding, and agentic tasks, HOPE achieves the best average rank (1.58 of 5 at 50% pruning versus 2.42 for REAP), with gains up to +6.1% on agentic coding.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 16, 16:55 UTC · 12h agoAI research

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Fast Learning Rates for Physics-Informed Kernel Methods

Theoretical analysis proves finite-sample learning rates for physics-informed kernel estimators, showing differential observations can improve rates from n^-1/4 to n^-1/2.

The paper analyzes a physics-informed kernel estimator combining n value observations and m differential observations for a linear differential operator D, asking how much differential information improves prediction. The authors prove finite-sample bounds, supported by simulations, revealing a two-regime structure: when m is limited the rate depends jointly on n and m, and when m exceeds a problem-dependent threshold the rate saturates to the oracle rate. Examples in Sobolev spaces, including partial Laplacian constraints on the torus and gradient observations on bounded domains, illustrate improvements from the nonparametric n^-1/4 rate to the parametric n^-1/2 rate, plus physically consistent rates in a stronger norm.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 16, 16:39 UTC · 13h agoAI research

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Reduced-Space Multi-Fidelity Bayesian Optimization of Process Simulation Models

RS-MFBO couples global sensitivity analysis with fidelity-augmented Gaussian processes to slash costly high-fidelity simulation runs in industrial flowsheet optimization.

The paper presents RS-MFBO, a reduced-space multi-fidelity Bayesian optimization framework for high-dimensional, expensive black-box functions. It integrates Global Sensitivity Analysis for dimensionality reduction with a fidelity-augmented Gaussian process and a cost-aware acquisition strategy featuring cooldown and promotion mechanisms. Validation on a plasmid DNA bioprocess (SuperPro Designer) and a green fuel synthesis plant (Aspen HYSYS) shows substantial reductions in high-fidelity evaluations while remaining competitive with single-fidelity baselines.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 15, 16:46 UTC · 1d agoAI research

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Exponential Hardness of Off-Policy Evaluation under History-Dependent Logging

Researchers prove off-policy evaluation under history-dependent logging requires exponentially many episodes, resolving a hardness question for model-based POMDP evaluation.

The paper constructs POMDPs with at most two latent states per stage, three actions, and a three-memory-state logger where evaluating a known deterministic target policy to accuracy 1/8 requires Θ((3/2)^H log(1/δ)) episodes for any horizon H≥3. Coverage and outcome-revealing conditions hold with constants independent of H, yet a reset erases the unknown transition that determines the target value. The authors characterize the resulting statistical experiment exactly, derive a matching optimal estimator, and validate predictions on a two-lane gridworld. This settles the history-dependent-logging, model-based case posed by Zhang and Jiang (arXiv:2503.01134).

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 16, 17:56 UTC · 11h agoAI research

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TransNormal-2: Geometry-Grounded Rectified Flow with Edge-Aware Decoding for Precise Normal Estimation

TransNormal-2 improves monocular surface-normal estimation by fixing VAE edge degradation with geometry-aware losses and refinement, matching MoGe-2 with 1.4% of annotations.

TransNormal-2 is a FLUX.2-based rectified-flow framework for monocular surface-normal estimation with single-step deterministic inference. The authors quantify that VAE 8x spatial compression introduces 1.3-8.5 degrees of mean angular error even on ground-truth normals, with edge error up to 2.8x the global error. The method adds geometry-aware pixel-space losses and an RGB-guided Geometric Refinement Module to correct boundary-localized decoding errors. It matches or exceeds MoGe-2 on all eight reported metrics using only 1.4% as many task-specific annotations, and cuts transparent-object MAE by 4.2 degrees on ClearGrasp and 3.1 degrees on ClearPose.

Hugging Face daily papers·Sep 5, 20:00 UTC · 11d agoAI research

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Quenched Ensemble Sampling

Quenched Ensemble Sampling generalizes nested sampling's hard energy constraint to repulsive potentials, traversing first-order phase transitions where tempering fails.

Quenched Ensemble Sampling generalizes nested sampling's hard energy constraint into a family of repulsive potentials at the energy boundary, preserving monotone energy descent while making the constrained target amenable to scalable gradient-based kernels. On synthetic phase-transition models it estimates marginal likelihood and draws posterior samples across first-order transitions where popular alternatives such as tempering fail. Applications include marginal likelihood estimation for Bayesian neural network architecture comparison and partition function estimation in a high-dimensional continuous lattice field theory.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 14, 17:16 UTC · 2d agoAI research1

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Algorithmic stability via ensembling

Theoretical work derives a general framework quantifying stability guarantees for averaging-based ensembles under arbitrary data perturbations via covariance operator norms.

The paper develops a framework for quantifying algorithmic stability of ensembling strategies defined via averaging, for varied types of data perturbation. The main result bounds the stability of the ensembled algorithm in terms of the norm of a covariance operator describing the ensembling process. The framework yields interpretable insights across practical perturbation examples and provides sharper guarantees than those derived from differential privacy considerations.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 9, 16:39 UTC · 7d agoAI research

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General Quantification of Covariate and Concept Shifts

Paper proposes γ*-concept shifts via entropic optimal transport, deriving estimable generalization bounds unifying covariate and concept shift under distribution shift.

The authors show existing definitions of concept shift break when source and target supports mismatch and propose γ*-concept shifts grounded in entropic optimal transport. They derive a general error bound covering broad loss functions, label spaces and stochastic labeling, plus estimators with concentration guarantees. The resulting DataShifts algorithm quantifies distribution shifts and estimates the error bound in most applications, addressing learning bounds that were previously non-estimable from samples.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 10, 17:57 UTC · 6d agoAI research1

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Probabilistic Linear Explanations

Researchers introduce a unified probabilistic explainability framework using sparse anchored linear models that outperforms LIME and MAPLE on relevance error.

The paper proposes probabilistic explanations based on sparse, anchored linear models applicable to both binary classification and continuous regression. It proves that minimizing relevance error for neural-network models is NP-hard and relates it to a tractable fidelity-error surrogate. Solutions are computed via a mixed integer programming formulation with provably optimal empirical solutions and a polynomial-time iterative hard thresholding algorithm with approximation guarantees. Empirical evaluations show lower relevance error than LIME and MAPLE while satisfying anchoring and sparsity constraints by construction.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 16, 17:18 UTC · 12h agoAI research

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Measuring benchmark optimization in speech recognition

Hugging Face examines how much speech recognition systems overfit benchmarks and how to measure benchmark optimization in ASR.

A Hugging Face post on measuring benchmark optimization in automatic speech recognition, analyzing how model improvements on benchmarks reflect genuine capability gains versus overfitting. It is evaluation methodology research with no direct security impact.

Hugging Face Blog·Aug 21, 00:00 UTC · 27d agoAI research

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Robust Policy Optimization via Adversarial Importance Sampling

Adversarial Importance Sampling estimates worst-case RL returns without extra interactions; authors also release the advrl PyTorch library.

The paper introduces Advis, which uses importance sampling over trajectories from standard training to estimate and optimize verifiable worst-case returns, requiring no additional environment interactions or auxiliary networks. It also releases advrl, a modular PyTorch library of single-file robustness methods and adversarial attacks for reproducible evaluation. The authors show adversarial hyperparameters do not transfer across agents, so they evaluate with 6-14x more attacker configurations than prior work. Effectiveness is demonstrated on continuous control environments.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 11, 16:40 UTC · 5d agoAI research1

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ENCP: Episode-Normalized Conformal Prediction for Vision-and-Language Navigation

ENCP calibrates conformal prediction per navigation episode, giving step-level coverage guarantees for vision-language navigation agents despite within-episode dependence.

Episode-Normalized Conformal Prediction (ENCP) rescales a nonconformity score by a VLN policy's residual confidence and calibrates one maximum score per episode, preserving step-level coverage of at least 1−α despite dependence among steps within an episode. Across four VLN policies and three nonconformity scores on R2R and REVERIE, ENCP meets all reported empirical step-coverage targets in seen-to-unseen evaluation. The model-agnostic uncertainty estimates can signal when an agent should defer to a stronger predictor or human assistance.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 15, 17:42 UTC · 1d agoAI research

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Observational Indistinguishability and Integrity Blind Regions in Hybrid Quantum-Classical Workflows

Framework formalizes integrity blind regions in hybrid quantum-classical workflows, validated across 3,600 label interventions with conformal detection rules.

The paper presents a claim-relative evidence and reference framework for integrity of hybrid quantum-classical workflows, distinguishing structural blind regions caused by observational indistinguishability from finite-batch statistical misses. Experiments over 3,600 label interventions show exact label-path invariance for feature and prediction views. The geometry-aligned construction detects 343 of 2,700 conclusion-changing interventions using the conformal rule and 1,183 of 2,700 with the uncorrected union, with executed conformal clean false-action rates of 0.048-0.059.

arXiv cs.CR·Sep 15, 13:16 UTC · 1d agoResearch

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Understanding the Impact of Model Pruning on Long-Tail Forgetting and Explanation Reliability in Medical Imaging

Systematic study finds model pruning causes frequency-dependent long-tail forgetting in medical imaging and that gradient-informed methods best preserve explanations.

Across two long-tailed medical imaging datasets, two CNN architectures, four pruning methods, and sparsity up to 95%, the study measures predictive performance, explanation stability, and faithfulness. Rare classes degrade earlier and more severely than frequent ones, while explanation reliability depends mainly on the pruning strategy, with gradient-informed methods degrading least. Mechanistic analysis ties explanation collapse to loss of class-discriminative gradients rather than vanishing feature activations, recommending class- and explanation-aware evaluation of compression.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 7, 17:44 UTC · 9d agoAI research

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Double descent is the principle of least action

A statistical mechanics analysis explains double descent: finite-time diffusion induces effective weight decay that regularizes models as parameters grow.

The paper models stochastic gradient-based training as a particle diffusing over the training-loss energy landscape at an induced temperature, sampling parameters via a Boltzmann distribution. Finite training time carries an effective weight decay, making every parameter a quadratic degree of freedom governed by the equipartition theorem. Adding parameters at fixed training loss lowers the temperature and the L2 norm of the stationary path, increasing effective regularization and explaining the double descent phenomenon.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 16, 17:17 UTC · 12h agoAI research

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Competence-Gated Pooling of Language Models and Priors for Event Forecasting

Paper proposes a competence gate pooling language model forecasts with external priors, improving Brier score from 0.0771 to 0.0732 across 2,357 binary questions.

The paper defines a language model's relative competence as its marginal value beyond an available external forecast, and derives conditions under Brier loss where model disagreement improves that forecast. A competence gate estimates domain-level source weights from resolved outcomes, shrinks uncertain estimates toward a global weight, and recalibrates the pooled forecast. Across 2,357 resolved binary questions and five language models, it improves the external baseline from 0.0771 to 0.0732 Brier and beats global forecast combinations, though it defers to the market on ForecastBench. Across four Qwen models, verbal confidence failed to identify when the model outperformed the external forecast, while outcome-estimated competence supported better abstention.

Hugging Face daily papers·Sep 9, 20:00 UTC · 7d agoAI research1

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Lightweight Vision Transformer Compression for On-Device Plant Disease Detection in Resource-Constrained Agricultural Field Conditions

A unified ViT compression pipeline (H-BAC pruning, quantization, distillation) cuts plant-disease models 54.5x to 6.01 MB while keeping 95.13% accuracy.

Researchers combined Hessian-Balanced Adaptive Block Pruning (H-BAC), guided by second-order sensitivity estimation, with quantization and attention-based knowledge distillation to compress Vision Transformers for on-device chilli plant disease detection in India. On a 3-class cross-village, cross-device out-of-distribution dataset, the integrated pipeline reduced model size from 327.42 MB to 6.01 MB (54.5x) at 95.13 +/- 2.32% accuracy, matching the 95.13% FP32 baseline. Ablations also show a directly trained 6.01 MB INT8 student reaches 94.87% accuracy, indicating where pruning and distillation add limited value.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 4, 16:40 UTC · 12d agoAI research

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PLC-DPO: Posterior Label Correction in Noisy and Ambiguous Preference Optimization

PLC-DPO corrects noisy preference labels during DPO by routing each pair as clean, flip, or tie using calibrated policy-reference margins.

PLC-DPO addresses reversed, weak, or ambiguous preference labels in Direct Preference Optimization by using the calibrated policy-reference margin as online evidence to route each pair's training signal as clean, flip, or tie. This actively corrects supervision direction and strength rather than only filtering suspicious examples. Across 57 dataset-model-benchmark cells, PLC-DPO achieves the best mean win rate of 60.5 versus 55.5 for the next-best method. Injected-noise and tie stress tests plus human disagreement analysis show the routing stays stable and distinguishes flipped from weakly directional pairs.

Hugging Face daily papers·Aug 30, 20:00 UTC · 17d agoAI research

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SQS: Bayesian DNN Compression through Sparse Quantized Sub-distributions

SQS unifies weight pruning and low-bit quantization via Bayesian variational learning, compressing Llama3.2 and Qwen2.5 at higher rates with comparable accuracy.

SQS introduces a unified Bayesian variational framework performing simultaneous pruning and low-bit quantization, using a spike-and-slab prior for sparsity and Gaussian Mixture Models to model quantized weights. The authors derive an efficient approximation for the intractable objective and provide a consistency result for the variational approach. Experiments on ResNet, BERT-base, Llama3.2, and Qwen2.5 show higher compression rates than prior baselines with comparable performance drops.

Hugging Face daily papers·Sep 6, 20:00 UTC · 10d agoAI research

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Harnessing CLIP and DINO: An Uncertainty-Aware Cascaded Fusion Network for Generalizable Deepfake Image Detection

UCF-Net fuses CLIP and DINO features with entropy-based uncertainty weighting to improve generalizable deepfake image detection across generators.

Researchers propose UCF-Net, an uncertainty-aware cascaded fusion network that combines CLIP's language-aligned semantic priors with DINO's self-supervised visual-structure priors for deepfake detection. It aggregates hierarchical features across transformer depths via layer-wise expert modules and performs weighted fusion driven by entropy-derived uncertainty. The authors consolidate public deepfake datasets into a unified benchmark of roughly 4 million images plus a cross-generator set of over 8,000 faces from eight recent generators, where UCF-Net achieves the best mean AUC among evaluated methods, though zero-shot transfer remains challenging.

Hugging Face daily papers·Sep 6, 20:00 UTC · 10d agoAI research

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A Generalization of Amari's Bayesian Duality

Paper generalizes Amari's Bayesian duality by connecting it to a convex duality of Bayes' rule.

The authors revisit Amari's less-known work on Bayesian duality from information geometry. They connect Bayesian duality to a convex duality formulation of Bayes' rule and present a generalization of it. The paper is purely theoretical and discusses relevance for modern AI, with no experiments or model releases.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 8, 17:51 UTC · 8d agoAI research

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Bridging Control, Inference, Transport, and Thermodynamics: From Theory to Applications in Learning

Review connects control theory, optimal transport, probabilistic inference, thermodynamics, and machine learning via free-energy optimization under constraints.

The review unifies five fields: control theory, optimal transport, probabilistic inference, non-equilibrium thermodynamics, and machine learning. The common conceptual thread is optimization of free-energy-like functionals under dynamical or statistical constraints. Selected applications are presented in reinforcement learning, variational inference, and generative modeling. The tutorial-style text assumes no prior familiarity and begins from physics principles.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 14, 17:16 UTC · 2d agoAI research

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