Search: “autoregressive models”

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Modality-Autoregressive World-Action Models

ModAR autoregressively denoises multiple future modalities (point tracks, DINO features, depth) before predicting actions, beating prior world-action models at all data scales.

ModAR is the first world-action model (WAM) to autoregressively denoise multiple future modalities before predicting actions, letting each prediction condition on previously generated modalities. Training from scratch shows WAMs benefit from predicting point tracks, DINO features, and depth maps, while future RGB adds no consistent benefit. ModAR's sequential generation outperforms existing WAM formulations with the highest average success rate at all evaluated data scales. It slightly beats video-model-initialized Flex-π (75% vs 72% success) using roughly 20x fewer training FLOPs and no pretraining, and wins on three real-world bimanual tasks.

Hugging Face daily papers·Sep 14, 20:00 UTC · 2d agoAI research

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PhysStream: Streaming Physics-Grounded Video Generation with Structured Scene Memory and Fine-Grained Motion Control

PhysStream autoregressive video model enables physics-grounded mid-generation motion control, cutting trajectory error 12% and FVMD 33% versus strongest baselines.

PhysStream is an autoregressive image-to-video model that incorporates structured scene memory—positional maps and object tracking maps derived online from previously generated frames—and supports fine-grained motion control via sparse velocity-increment signals encoding physical quantities. Training proceeds in two stages: a bidirectional model finetuned with motion-control conditioning, then a causal autoregressive model with scene memory. It reduces motion distribution distance (FVMD) by 33% and trajectory error by 12% over the strongest baselines, and human evaluators prefer it in over 85% of in-the-wild comparisons.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 15, 17:55 UTC · 1d agoAI research 2 sources1

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Studying Image Tokenizers as Visual Languages in Unified Multimodal Models

A controlled autoregressive testbed shows validation losses must be analyzed per task, and image tokenizer choice affects joint multimodal text modeling.

Researchers built a pure-autoregressive testbed to study image tokenizers as the 'visual language' of unified multimodal models, tracking task-specific validation losses during multimodal continual pretraining across text, image, text-to-image (T2I), and image-to-text (I2T) prediction. They found that losses exhibit distinct scaling behavior per task and rank tokenizers differently, and that I2T loss over a shared text vocabulary gives a more consistent loss–performance signal than T2I loss. Better reconstruction does not necessarily yield lower task-specific losses or stronger downstream performance, and tokenizer choice can affect text modeling under joint optimization. Case studies examine the discriminator, semantic supervision, and vocabulary size design axes.

Hugging Face daily papers·Sep 7, 20:00 UTC · 9d agoAI research1

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Mask Forcing: Improving Autoregressive Video Diffusion Distillation via Dual-Noise Masking Rollout

Researchers propose Mask Forcing, a dual-noise masking rollout that mitigates mode collapse in autoregressive video diffusion distillation.

The paper targets over-saturation and over-smoothing in autoregressive video diffusion models distilled via Distribution Matching Distillation, attributed to reverse-KL mode-seeking behavior. Mask Forcing perturbs the student self-rollout with random masks along spatial and temporal axes, injecting cleaner tokens that act as denoising guidance for noisier tokens. Experiments show improved visual quality across multiple distillation methods without using real video data or extra post-training stages.

Hugging Face daily papers·Sep 7, 20:00 UTC · 9d agoAI research

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StepAudio 3 Gen Technical Report

StepAudio 3 Gen unifies TTS, voice design, music, and sound effects via discrete autoregressive modeling over RVQ tokens.

StepAudio 3 Gen is a general-purpose audio generation model covering zero-shot TTS, voice design, vocal generation, sound effects, music, vibe speech, and mixed audio in one framework. It uses discrete autoregressive modeling over residual vector quantization (RVQ) tokens rather than the diffusion Transformer paradigm, with a StepAudio Tokenizer representing audio at 12.5 Hz in a shared 16x2048 residual code space. Key design principles include interference-aware progressive pretraining, an RVQ Adaptor for multi-codebook acoustic representations, and shared discrete autoregressive modeling. The model reports state-of-the-art performance on TTS and voice design while retaining strong generation across speech, vocals, sound effects, and music.

Hugging Face daily papers·Sep 10, 20:00 UTC · 6d agoAI research

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NOAH: Learning the Full Patient Journey. A Longitudinal Multimodal Time-Aware Model for Representation and Forecasting

Researchers introduce NOAH, a generative time-aware transformer trained on 559 million MIMIC clinical events to model and forecast patient trajectories.

NOAH is a task-agnostic, time-aware generative transformer designed to represent and forecast the full multimodal patient journey across medical images, time-series signals, categorical events, and clinical text. It was trained on over 559 million clinical events from 431,000 hospital visits covering 299,000 patients in the MIMIC dataset family. The architecture combines bidirectional time integration with a variational latent space to capture continuous patient state evolution and clinical stochasticity. NOAH supports autoregressive forecasting with time control, zero-shot classification, and counterfactual intervention simulation, with evaluations on 15 ICD chapters, 29 comorbidities, and time-to-event prediction.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 8, 17:56 UTC · 8d agoAI research2

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Pelican-Sim 1.0: A General World Model Simulator for Embodied Intelligence

Pelican-Sim 1.0 predicts future observations from visual context and robot actions; four-step autoregressive rollouts yield 5.67x speedup and raise policy success from 70% to 93%.

Pelican-Sim 1.0 is a general world model simulator for embodied intelligence that predicts future observations from visual context and robot actions using a 28-dimensional unified action space valid across heterogeneous embodiments. Sparse mixture-of-experts layers reduce FVD by 6.530 versus the dense backbone, and causal adaptation with few-step distillation yields a four-step autoregressive simulator achieving a 5.67-fold speedup over the 35-step model. Trained on roughly one million real-world and simulated trajectories, PSNR improves over the strongest baselines by 4.636 on AgiBotWorld Beta, 2.080 on RoboMIND, and 10.343 on RoboTwin. Downstream on RoboTwin, adding 500 generated trajectories to 50 demonstrations per task raises policy success from 70% to 93%, and policy evaluation reaches a Pearson correlation of 0.994.

Hugging Face daily papers·Sep 9, 20:00 UTC · 7d agoAI research

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Unlocking Lossless Speedups in LLMs via Discrete Diffusion

Uno pairs autoregressive LLMs with lightweight diffusion weights to draw multiple tokens in parallel, delivering up to 3x lossless speedup without a draft model.

The paper introduces diffusion-augmented LLMs: autoregressive weights trained with the standard next-token objective plus lightweight diffusion weights trained via a Diffusion Distillation phase to emit multiple tokens in parallel. Psi-Spec samplers enable lossless acceleration without the separate draft model required by speculative decoding. The 8B Uno model outperforms the 26B open DiffusionGemma and proprietary Mercury 2 on agentic tool use, coding, and long-context reasoning benchmarks, with up to 3x throughput gains over the base model at all evaluated batch sizes. Code and checkpoints are released publicly.

Hugging Face daily papers·Sep 2, 20:00 UTC · 14d agoAI research

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Google's new AI model predicts the future from sales data, weather, and discount schedules

Google Research released TimesFM-3, a 330M-parameter multivariate time series forecasting model that tops Gift-Eval, FEV-Bench, and Time benchmarks and is on Hugging Face.

Google Research released TimesFM-3, a 330-million-parameter Transformer-based time series forecasting model trained on more than one trillion real and synthetic data points. It works zero-shot and adds multivariate support, ingesting related series, historical-only covariates, and known future events such as discount schedules and weather forecasts, while filling all future time steps in a single one-shot pass. Google reports first place among pretrained forecasting models on Gift-Eval, FEV-Bench, and Time, ahead of Amazon's Chronos-2, the Toto-2.0 family, and its own TimesFM-2.5. Weights are available on GitHub and Hugging Face, with BigQuery integration planned in the coming weeks.

The Decoder·Sep 12, 09:26 UTC · 4d agoModel release2

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Real-Time Intelligence with IBM Time Series Models on Confluent

IBM Research post on the Hugging Face blog describes running IBM time series models on Confluent for real-time intelligence.

Hugging Face's blog published an IBM Research post titled 'Real-Time Intelligence with IBM Time Series Models on Confluent.' No article body was available for classification, so details are limited to the title. The title indicates guidance on deploying IBM time series models alongside Confluent streaming infrastructure for real-time analytics.

Hugging Face Blog·Sep 2, 13:49 UTC · 14d agoAI tools & infra

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How Lossless Is Lossless Speculative Decoding? The Role of Numerical Precision in Orthrus

Reproduction study finds Orthrus speculative-decoding trajectories match the reference model in only ~45% of cases under BF16, but 100% under FP32.

Researchers independently reproduced Orthrus, a hybrid autoregressive-diffusion architecture claiming lossless speculative decoding via intra-model consensus, testing exact trajectory matching on 1,190 prompts across 12 domains. Under BF16, exact matching occurred in only 45% of cases for the authors' checkpoint and 43% for an independently trained model, with matching probability strongly tied to reference-model response-conditional perplexity. Despite trajectory divergence, downstream lm-eval-harness benchmarks showed no systematic degradation, while FP32 evaluation yielded exact matching on all prompts.

Hugging Face daily papers·Sep 13, 20:00 UTC · 3d agoAI research1

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Cadence: Error-Bounded Lossy Compression of Demand Time Series with a Time-Series Foundation Model

Cadence pairs Google's 330M-parameter TimesFM-3 foundation model with adaptive arithmetic coding, gaining 13-28% on 2026 demand series over classical predictors.

Cadence is an error-bounded lossy compressor for numeric time series combining the 330M-parameter Google TimesFM-3 foundation model with an adaptive arithmetic coder, guaranteeing a per-sample error bound. On 49 EIA-930 balancing-authority demand series from 2026 it gains 13.3% over the best of six classical predictors and 28.3% on 50 MTA ridership series, winning all 297 series-tolerance pairs with a 21.4% median gain. The paper also reports negative results, including that foundation models add negligible value for lossless coding and that PyTorch predictions are not bit-identical across batch sizes.

Hugging Face daily papers·Sep 4, 20:00 UTC · 12d agoAI research1

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ActionSplice: In-Flight Action Editing for Interactive World Models

ActionSplice enables in-flight action editing in chunk-autoregressive video world models via a lightweight corrector, avoiding rollback or waiting for the next chunk.

ActionSplice is an inference framework that formulates in-flight action editing for chunk-autoregressive video world models as Counterfactual State Transport (CST), where a lightweight corrector transports the interrupted backbone-native representation toward the matched state induced by the revised action. The world model and sampler remain frozen, and sampling resumes without replaying completed evaluations. Across minWM-Wan Action2V and HY-WM1.5, the retargeting variant CST-R reduces rollback-relative LPIPS by 61.5% and 75.9% versus direct condition swapping, while the temporal-splicing variant CST-T reduces suffix LPIPS by 56.1% and 77.5% with 2.73x and 1.69x pixel-ready speedups over waiting.

Hugging Face daily papers·Sep 7, 20:00 UTC · 9d agoAI research

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Evaluating Time-Series Foundation Models and Multimodal Dietary Context for CGM Forecasting

Study finds zero-shot time-series foundation models underperform on CGM forecasting; fine-tuned Chronos-Bolt cuts RMSE up to 18.4% and dietary context adds signal.

The paper evaluates time-series foundation models for continuous glucose monitoring forecasting across eight public datasets covering Type 1 diabetes, Type 2 diabetes, and non-diabetes populations. Under a unified protocol, zero-shot foundation models did not consistently outperform baselines like Elastic Net and PatchTST, but lightweight fine-tuning did, with fine-tuned Chronos-Bolt reducing RMSE by 6.5%-18.4% in the T1D cohort and 8.6%-18.2% in the non-diabetes/T2D cohort. A residual-based fusion framework adding dietary context from CGMacros reduced overall RMSE by about 3% and postprandial RMSE by about 15% versus CGM-only baselines.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 10, 17:43 UTC · 6d agoAI research

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CanvasAnneal: Curriculum Reinforcement Learning for Diffusion Language Models

CanvasAnneal injects teacher reasoning traces into diffusion canvases during curriculum RL, improving diffusion LLMs on MATH500, Countdown, and Tau2.

CanvasAnneal is a curriculum-guided reinforcement learning framework for diffusion language models that addresses exploration bottlenecks in standard RL. It warm-starts exploration by injecting teacher-generated reasoning traces into the initial diffusion canvas, then gradually removes this guidance so the model generates reasoning trajectories independently. Across mathematical reasoning and tool-use benchmarks, it improves over standard diffu-GRPO on MATH500, Countdown, and Tau2 and accelerates reward improvement, though gains are task-dependent.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 11, 16:59 UTC · 5d agoAI research1

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NOAH: Learning the Full Patient Journey. A Longitudinal Multimodal Time-Aware Model for Representation and Forecasting

Researchers introduce NOAH, a time-aware generative transformer trained on 559 million MIMIC clinical events to forecast multimodal patient trajectories.

NOAH is a task-agnostic, time-aware generative transformer trained on over 559 million clinical events from 431,000 hospital visits by 299,000 patients across the MIMIC dataset family. It uses bidirectional time integration and a variational latent space to model the stochastic evolution of patient states, natively processing medical images, time-series signals, categorical events, and structured or unstructured clinical records. The model supports autoregressive forecasting with optional time control, zero-shot classification, and counterfactual intervention simulation, with strong probing performance across clinical outcomes, 15 ICD chapters, and 29 comorbidities.

Hugging Face daily papers·Sep 7, 20:00 UTC · 9d agoAI research1

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Speculative Decoding in vLLM on AMD GPUs

vLLM benchmarks speculative decoding on AMD Instinct MI300X and MI355X GPUs across five drafting methods including EAGLE-3 and native MTP.

The vLLM project documents draft-and-verify speculative decoding support for AMD GPUs via ROCm, comparing native MTP, Gemma 4 MTP, EAGLE-3, DFlash, and DSpark drafting approaches. Output-token throughput effects varied with drafting method, proposal length, model family, draft checkpoint, workload, and acceptance behavior. The post also covers how to enable each method plus practical tuning and observability considerations.

Hacker News · AI·Sep 7, 09:26 UTC · 9d agoAI tools & infraHN 141↑ · 52 comments1

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Meta FAIR Introduces AI Research Preference Models (RPMs): Ranking ML Experiments Before Spending GPU Hours

Meta FAIR, Oxford and UCL introduce Research Preference Models that rank unexecuted ML experiments, lifting AIRS-Bench scores from 0.684 to 0.729 and cutting compute ~1.6×.

Researchers from Meta FAIR, Oxford, and UCL introduce Research Preference Models (RPMs), which use frozen pretrained LLMs (Qwen3.6-27B backbone, no fine-tuning) to rank unexecuted experiment candidates and execute only the winner of a pairwise knockout tournament. Two variants shipped: an inference-only LLM-as-a-judge and an agentic variant that runs small pilot experiments in an H200 sandbox. On AIRS-Bench (20 tasks, 24 hours on one H200, 10 seeds), scores rise from 0.684 (random) to 0.711 and 0.729 versus a 0.748 validation oracle, and both variants reach the baseline's 24-hour score in roughly 15 hours. The team reports new SOTA on WinoGrande (94.1% with Agentic RPM) and SVAMP (95.7% with inference-only).

MarkTechPost·Sep 6, 20:25 UTC · 10d agoAI research

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Studying Image Tokenizers as Visual Languages in Unified Multimodal Models

A controlled pure-autoregressive testbed shows task-specific validation losses rank image tokenizers differently, with I2T loss the most consistent signal.

Researchers built a controlled pure-autoregressive testbed and tracked task-specific validation losses during multimodal continual pretraining across text, image, text-to-image (T2I), and image-to-text (I2T) prediction. They find losses should be analyzed per task because they exhibit distinct scaling behavior and rank tokenizers differently, and that the loss-performance relationship depends on the predicted token space. I2T loss, computed over a shared text vocabulary, correlates consistently with both generation and visual understanding performance after supervised finetuning. Case studies revisit the discriminator, semantic supervision, and vocabulary size as tokenizer design axes.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 8, 17:57 UTC · 8d agoAI research1

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Discrete Beckmann Transport Models for One-Step Language Modeling and Reasoning

DBTM achieves one-step text generation via a time-independent transport map trained directly from data, removing pretrained teacher distillation.

Discrete Beckmann Transport Models (DBTM) build a time-independent flow whose autonomous transport map provably carries any point in ambient space to a fixed point on simplex vertices in a single step. The fixed-point property is characterized by a conservation equation whose residual can be minimized directly from data, eliminating the need for a teacher flow, distillation, and time conditioning. A partial-context interpolant extension turns additional function evaluations into refinement steps rather than ODE integration steps. On language modeling and reasoning tasks, DBTM's one- and few-step generation improves quality and accuracy over discrete diffusion and continuous flow baselines.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 14, 17:19 UTC · 2d agoAI research1

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MIT creates method to force AI to comply with safety rules

MIT researchers published HardFlow, a method enforcing hard safety constraints on flow-matching generative models' final outputs without retraining.

MIT researchers led by Zeyang Li and Navid Azizan developed HardFlow, a trajectory-optimization method that enforces strict, non-negotiable constraints on flow-matching generative models by checking rule satisfaction only at the final generation step. Published in IEEE TPAMI, it outperformed six rival projection and guidance methods on four simulated benchmarks including D3IL robotic manipulation, Maze2D, physical process control, and image editing. All results are simulation-only, with no independent reproduction yet reported.

Hacker News · security·Sep 14, 16:18 UTC · 2d agoAI researchHN 24↑ · 25 comments

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Causal Foundation Models

A paper introduces causal foundation models (CFMs): pretrained networks that estimate treatment effects on new datasets via in-context learning without fine-tuning.

Causal foundation models (CFMs) apply the foundation-model paradigm to causal inference, replacing bespoke per-problem estimator pipelines with networks pretrained once at scale. CFMs estimate causal quantities such as the average treatment effect on entirely new datasets through in-context learning, without model updates. The work serves as a practical introduction to the emerging area, covering background in causal inference and machine learning and including example code and Jupyter notebooks.

Hugging Face daily papers·Sep 1, 20:00 UTC · 15d agoAI research

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[AINews] Jev: a “System One Model” that only decides/classifies/routes/scores — >100x faster, >200x cheaper than small frontier LLMs

TypeSafe launches Jev, an RLCD-trained decision model claiming 20-200x faster, 40-400x cheaper classification than frontier LLMs, alongside Gemini 3.8 Live and Neon.

TypeSafe's Jev is a 'System One' decision model trained with RLCD, claiming 20-200x faster and 40-400x cheaper classification and routing than frontier LLMs with free output tokens and no hallucinated text. Google launched Gemini 3.8 Live and 3.8 Live Extended Thinking, supporting 97 languages and async tool calls, debuting #1 on Artificial Analysis' speech-to-speech index at 82.6. Periodic Labs' Neon is a ~1T-parameter XRD analysis model trained with RL on proprietary lab data using 1,300 H200s, lifting FrontierXRD success from 2.7% to 55.3% and beating GPT-6 Astra at lower inference cost.

Latent Space·Sep 16, 11:09 UTC · 15h agoModel release1

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A Hybrid LSTM-XGBoost Framework for Multi-Horizon Stock Return Prediction Across Diversified Equity Portfolios

Hybrid LSTM-XGBoost model predicts multi-horizon returns for 14 US equities, cutting 30-day RMSE to about one-third of a standalone LSTM baseline.

The paper combines a two-layer LSTM (64 hidden units) processing 60-day windows of five market features with an XGBoost regressor over a 78-dimensional hybrid feature vector including 14 technical indicators. It is trained on pooled data for 14 US equities across six sectors using chronological splits and per-stock MinMaxScaling to prevent look-ahead bias, and evaluated at 30, 90, 252, and 365 trading-day horizons. The hybrid achieves test RMSE of 0.0949 at 30 days, roughly one-third of the standalone LSTM, while 97.6% directional accuracy at 365 days largely tracks the base rate of positive returns.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 11, 17:51 UTC · 5d agoAI research

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Convergent Emergence of In-Context Learning Across Modalities

Controlled experiments show few-shot in-context learning emerges across six modalities including language, genomes, images, and proteins, partially supporting a convergence hypothesis.

The paper tests the Convergent Emergence Hypothesis: that few-shot in-context learning, when it emerges, shares a common cross-modality difficulty profile. A controlled framework instantiated the same task suite across six modalities: language, genome, integer sequences, time series, images, and proteins. Paired-mapping ICL emerged in all six modalities, surpassed controlled baselines, and showed correlated per-task effects in five of them, providing partial support for the hypothesis.

Hugging Face daily papers·Sep 11, 20:00 UTC · 5d agoAI research

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NCP-ArchPreview Technical Report: Moving towards Latent Space Language Models through Next Concept Prediction

An 8.9B-parameter latent-space language model using next-concept prediction matches OLMo-3-7B pretraining loss with only 51.3% of the training tokens.

NCP-ArchPreview augments next-token prediction with Next Concept Prediction over a product-quantized concept vocabulary built from hidden states, trained jointly end-to-end. The 8.9B model was trained on 5.73T tokens from the Dolma-3 dataset, the largest latent-space language model demonstration to date. It consumes 51.3% of the tokens to reach OLMo-3-7B's final pretraining loss and outperforms it by 2.45 points on the downstream macro-average, including a 5.99-point GSM8K gain. The learned latent space also enables lightweight domain adaptation via a 17M-parameter VQ module and improves speculative drafting accepted length by 4.17%.

Hugging Face daily papers·Sep 8, 20:00 UTC · 8d agoAI research1

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Generative Marketing Mix Modeling: A Causal Inference Framework Linking GEO and GEM to Business Impact

Paper proposes Generative Marketing Mix Modeling to causally estimate Generative Engine Optimization and Marketing effects on business outcomes.

The authors develop GMMM, a causal inference framework for measuring how often users see and notice a firm's name in generated answers, which standard marketing data ignore. For GEO it combines repeated generated answers with question counts, shares of generative-system usage and notice probabilities; for GEM it uses sponsored placement records with notice probabilities. The framework compares expected business responses under alternative treatment sequences, establishes identification conditions, and is evaluated on simulated product-recommendation answers in English and Japanese.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 10, 17:57 UTC · 6d agoAI research

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LongAgent: History-Guided Agentic Search for Longitudinal Outcome Prediction

LongAgent autonomously searches variable sets and temporal windows to predict longitudinal medical outcomes, beating the strongest non-agent baseline on synthetic data.

The paper proposes LongAgent, an agent-based method that searches over combinations of variable sets, temporal windows and aggregation functions for outcome prediction on heterogeneous medical longitudinal data. It uses a history memory of previous searches and numerical evidence to guide exploration. On synthetic data it achieves mean RMSE 1.7376, improving over the best non-agent baseline by 0.0151 (95% CI [0.0045, 0.0260]; p=0.0273), and performs comparably to the best baseline on a real clinical dataset.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 14, 16:51 UTC · 2d agoAI research

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deepseek-ai/DeepSeek-V4.1-Flash — new model trending #28 on Hugging Face

DeepSeek releases DeepSeek-V4.1-Flash, a 552B-parameter multimodal MoE model with 1M-token context and KV cache cut to 890 bytes per token.

DeepSeek-V4.1-Flash is a multimodal Mixture-of-Experts model with a 552B-parameter backbone that activates 8B parameters per token during prefill and 16B during decode. It uses a Causal Encoder-Decoder architecture, Compressed Sparse Attention 2, and FP4 KV caching to reduce the global KV cache footprint to 890 bytes per token, roughly one quarter of DeepSeek-V4-Flash. The model was trained from scratch on 45T tokens with context extended to 1M tokens, includes an Engram conditional-memory module (196B parameters), and is released under the MIT license. Post-training uses SFT, RL, and on-policy distillation with large-scale automated synthesis of agentic tasks and a controllable reasoning effort setting from 1 to 100.

Hugging Face trending models·Sep 10, 02:17 UTC · 7d agoModel release1

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State of Open Models: Summer 2026 Observations

Hugging Face publishes observations on the state of the open-weights model ecosystem as of summer 2026.

A Hugging Face blog post titled 'State of Open Models: Summer 2026 Observations' surveys developments across the open-weights model ecosystem. No article text was available, so specific model releases, benchmarks, and findings are not detailed here.

Hugging Face Blog·Aug 14, 00:00 UTC · Aug 14, 2026AI industry

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Semigroup-JEPA: Latent Dynamics Consistency for Zero-Shot Physics Generalization

SG-JEPA world model conditions latent prediction on physical parameters, halving open-loop prediction error versus DINO-WM and boosting robotic control success.

SG-JEPA extends the LeWorldModel JEPA framework by supplying the governing physics parameter to the temporal model via action-conditioning and jointly training an encoder and predictor through autoregressive latent rollout. On out-of-distribution gravitational-field tasks it reduces open-loop prediction error by up to 2x versus DINO-WM on 2D datasets and increases 3D robotic control success rate up to 2.5x using independently trained diffusion policies. A linear feature analysis attributes most of the gain to the encoder learning features that the predictor can carry forward through rollout.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 9, 17:08 UTC · 7d agoAI research

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Competence-Gated Pooling of Language Models and Priors for Event Forecasting

Paper proposes a competence gate pooling language model forecasts with external priors, improving Brier score from 0.0771 to 0.0732 across 2,357 binary questions.

The paper defines a language model's relative competence as its marginal value beyond an available external forecast, and derives conditions under Brier loss where model disagreement improves that forecast. A competence gate estimates domain-level source weights from resolved outcomes, shrinks uncertain estimates toward a global weight, and recalibrates the pooled forecast. Across 2,357 resolved binary questions and five language models, it improves the external baseline from 0.0771 to 0.0732 Brier and beats global forecast combinations, though it defers to the market on ForecastBench. Across four Qwen models, verbal confidence failed to identify when the model outperformed the external forecast, while outcome-estimated competence supported better abstention.

Hugging Face daily papers·Sep 9, 20:00 UTC · 7d agoAI research

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Target leakage, not model class, explains reported accuracy in survey-based cardiovascular screening: a leakage-tiered audit of glass-box and tabular foundation models

Audits of 10 classifiers on BRFSS show target leakage, not model class, drives the reported 0.89 AUROC in survey-based cardiovascular screening.

The study benchmarks ten model classes, including glass-box and tabular foundation models, for prevalent myocardial infarction on 442,067 respondents of the 2022 BRFSS across five feature tiers of decreasing leakage risk. Removing two post-diagnostic features costs every model 0.049-0.051 AUROC and collapses performance into a 0.0045-wide band, and the explainable boosting machine matches all alternatives within 0.005 while scoring roughly 104x faster than the strongest foundation model. Frozen models transport within 0.002 AUROC to 2023 data; the authors conclude evaluation practice and feature sets, not model capacity, are the binding constraint.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 10, 17:29 UTC · 6d agoAI research1

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[AINews] 10% worse, 100x cheaper, 10000x faster: Why Simulation is taking over

Latent Space argues AI training pipeline stages—rewards, data, teachers, curricula, environments—are flipping from human-made to model-made simulation.

Latent Space's AINews essay traces how each component of AI training has turned synthetic since 2022: reward models (InstructGPT, RLAIF), synthetic pretraining data (Microsoft Phi, NVIDIA Nemotron-4 340B), model teachers (Alpaca, DeepSeek-R1 distillation), and self-generated curricula (Self-Rewarding Language Models, SPIN). In 2026 it highlights Karpathy's autoresearch loop—700 experiments yielding 20 kept improvements, cutting GPT-2 training time from 2.02 to 1.80 hours—and Z.ai's GLM-5.3 fully synthetic RL environment, judging, and verification stack. It frames these shifts as 'simulation': 10% worse but 100x cheaper and 10,000x faster than human equivalents.

Latent Space·Aug 22, 07:36 UTC · 25d agoAI industry

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Decomposition-Guided Diffusion Language Models for Inertial Confinement Fusion Prediction

ICF-DLM, the first language-model-based inertial confinement fusion predictor, cuts peak-timing error from 11.6 to 9.2 steps versus LLaMA-3-8B.

Each National Ignition Facility shot costs roughly one million dollars, motivating accurate AI surrogates for predicting 512-step neutron-rate waveforms from laser pulses and target parameters. ICF-DLM combines physics-typed decomposition into yield, peak timing, and local waveform; bidirectional denoising that defers commitment to peak location; and a physics-driven PPO reward. On ICFBench (50,000 simulations plus 232 experimental shots) it outperforms a matched autoregressive LLaMA-3-8B, classical sequence models, and LLM-based time-series predictors.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 7, 17:00 UTC · 9d agoAI research

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Learning with Covariance Matrices: Principal Component Analysis Meets Learning with Graphs

Theoretical tutorial establishes equivalence between covariance neural networks and PCA, with stability and transferability bounds and brain-age applications.

The paper reviews the theory of coVariance neural networks (VNNs), graph neural networks that operate on covariance matrices as graphs. It derives a conceptual equivalence between VNNs and PCA-based information processing, refined stability bounds under finite-sample covariance perturbations, and transferability characterizations across multiscale datasets. Demonstrated applications include brain age gap estimation for neurodegenerative conditions from neuroimaging data.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 9, 17:28 UTC · 7d agoAI research1

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Jev: New frontier model 40-400x cheaper and 20-200x faster

TypeSafe AI launches Jev, an early-access 'System One' model delivering calibrated structured outputs claimed 40-400x faster and cheaper than LLMs.

TypeSafe AI, founded by former OpenAI researcher Diogo Almeida, released its first 'System One Model' called Jev in early access. Jev forgoes string generation and is trained with Reinforcement Learning for Calibrated Decisions (RLCD) to produce type-safe structured values with calibrated probabilities. The company claims 70-500ms response times (40-200x faster), input pricing of $0.042 per million tokens, and free output tokens via a parallel sampling architecture. Target use cases include AI-powered workflows, real-time applications, and verification/guardrail tasks.

Hacker News · security·Sep 15, 19:25 UTC · 1d agoModel releaseHN 59↑ · 11 comments

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Learning Length-Extrapolatable Recurrent Models

Researchers propose Credit Stabilization through Time, a training method letting recurrent models extrapolate up to 128x their training length.

The paper argues that length extrapolation failure in BPTT-trained recurrent models is better explained through state credit, the signal through which future losses reach earlier recurrent states. It introduces Credit Stabilization through Time (CST), which locally rescales the state-credit signal during backpropagation without rotating the corrected component or changing forward computation. Controlled experiments show improved performance beyond the training horizon, with gains at up to 128x the training length.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 8, 17:59 UTC · 8d agoAI research1

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PhysBrain 1.5: From Vision-Language Models to Physical Foundation Models

PhysBrain 1.5, an 8B physical foundation model, sets open-source state of the art across 28 embodied understanding benchmarks.

The paper presents PhysBrain 1.5, a unified 8B model for understanding physical environments, generating actions, and predicting future states, built from a vision-language model with joint autoregressive next-token prediction over language, end-effector motion, and dense visual targets. Pre-training uses embodied supervision from human interaction videos, followed by supervised fine-tuning on human demonstrations, robot trajectories, and simulated experience. The model averages 72.5 across 28 embodied benchmarks, setting a new open-source state of the art and performing on par with proprietary GPT-6-Astra and Gemini 3.6 Flash, with best open-source results on 14 benchmarks.

Hugging Face daily papers·Sep 13, 20:00 UTC · 3d agoAI research1

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Reference-Based Bias Detection in LLMs via Relative Representations of Hidden States

Researchers propose auditing LLM bias via relative hidden-state representations, detecting bias increases with 3-50x less compute than output-level benchmarks.

The paper introduces a reference-based bias auditing method that compares hidden-state representations across model variants, such as before and after fine-tuning, by encoding sentences relative to a fixed anchor set. The resulting Representational Bias Shift (Delta-B) correlates with output-level bias change in 15 of 18 tested settings, reaching |r| = 0.84 under full fine-tuning across WildGuardMix, DecodingTrust, and ToxiGen benchmarks. Thresholding Delta-B detects checkpoints whose bias increased with ROC AUC between 0.65 and 0.99 and beats a SEAT-based baseline, while auditing a model in about three minutes with 3-50x less compute.

Hugging Face daily papers·Sep 8, 20:00 UTC · 8d agoAI research1

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