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LongAgent: History-Guided Agentic Search for Longitudinal Outcome Prediction

LongAgent autonomously searches variable sets and temporal windows to predict longitudinal medical outcomes, beating the strongest non-agent baseline on synthetic data.

The paper proposes LongAgent, an agent-based method that searches over combinations of variable sets, temporal windows and aggregation functions for outcome prediction on heterogeneous medical longitudinal data. It uses a history memory of previous searches and numerical evidence to guide exploration. On synthetic data it achieves mean RMSE 1.7376, improving over the best non-agent baseline by 0.0151 (95% CI [0.0045, 0.0260]; p=0.0273), and performs comparably to the best baseline on a real clinical dataset.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL · 1d agoAI research

Competence-Gated Pooling of Language Models and Priors for Event Forecasting

Paper proposes a competence gate pooling language model forecasts with external priors, improving Brier score from 0.0771 to 0.0732 across 2,357 binary questions.

The paper defines a language model's relative competence as its marginal value beyond an available external forecast, and derives conditions under Brier loss where model disagreement improves that forecast. A competence gate estimates domain-level source weights from resolved outcomes, shrinks uncertain estimates toward a global weight, and recalibrates the pooled forecast. Across 2,357 resolved binary questions and five language models, it improves the external baseline from 0.0771 to 0.0732 Brier and beats global forecast combinations, though it defers to the market on ForecastBench. Across four Qwen models, verbal confidence failed to identify when the model outperformed the external forecast, while outcome-estimated competence supported better abstention.

Hugging Face daily papers · 6d agoAI research

NOAH: Learning the Full Patient Journey. A Longitudinal Multimodal Time-Aware Model for Representation and Forecasting

Researchers introduce NOAH, a time-aware generative transformer trained on 559 million MIMIC clinical events to forecast multimodal patient trajectories.

NOAH is a task-agnostic, time-aware generative transformer trained on over 559 million clinical events from 431,000 hospital visits by 299,000 patients across the MIMIC dataset family. It uses bidirectional time integration and a variational latent space to model the stochastic evolution of patient states, natively processing medical images, time-series signals, categorical events, and structured or unstructured clinical records. The model supports autoregressive forecasting with optional time control, zero-shot classification, and counterfactual intervention simulation, with strong probing performance across clinical outcomes, 15 ICD chapters, and 29 comorbidities.

Hugging Face daily papers · 8d agoAI research1

NOAH: Learning the Full Patient Journey. A Longitudinal Multimodal Time-Aware Model for Representation and Forecasting

Researchers introduce NOAH, a generative time-aware transformer trained on 559 million MIMIC clinical events to model and forecast patient trajectories.

NOAH is a task-agnostic, time-aware generative transformer designed to represent and forecast the full multimodal patient journey across medical images, time-series signals, categorical events, and clinical text. It was trained on over 559 million clinical events from 431,000 hospital visits covering 299,000 patients in the MIMIC dataset family. The architecture combines bidirectional time integration with a variational latent space to capture continuous patient state evolution and clinical stochasticity. NOAH supports autoregressive forecasting with time control, zero-shot classification, and counterfactual intervention simulation, with evaluations on 15 ICD chapters, 29 comorbidities, and time-to-event prediction.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL · 7d agoAI research2

Bag of Tricks or Bag of Myths? Reducing Modeling Complexity with Task Knowledge in Explainable Suicide Risk Assessment

Researchers audit 31 NLP techniques for clinician-annotated suicide risk prediction, finding only 5 of 31 comparisons yield reliable gains.

A study of 1,635 clinician-annotated social media posts ran roughly 300 controlled experiments across 7 methodological families, auditing techniques such as model scaling, synthetic data, ensembling, and threshold tuning under severe class imbalance. The proposed system reformulates risk factor prediction as entailment between posts and codebook definitions, using architecturally diverse ensembles with class-balanced training and deployment-consistent calibration. It scores 0.8203 for risk, 0.7953 for evidence, and 0.7045 macro-F1 for factors, ranking third among 53 teams.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL · 8d agoAI research

DynSHAP: Towards Explainable Dynamic Survival Analysis

DynSHAP extends SHAP explainability to dynamic survival analysis, treating time-feature pairs as Shapley players for longitudinal clinical predictions.

DynSHAP adapts marginal SHAP estimators to dynamic survival analysis by treating time-feature pairs as players in the Shapley game, handling longitudinal irregular inputs and functional survival outputs. Temporal DynSHAP learns linear feature dependencies over time and addresses them with conditional sampling. On synthetic data with ground-truth attributions it recovers temporally dependent features more accurately than marginal estimators, and it produces faithful attributions on two real-world clinical datasets across two DSA architectures.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL · 4d agoAI research

CausalArena: Benchmarking Causal Discovery in the Foundation Model Era

Researchers introduce CausalArena, a unified benchmark revealing that causal discovery rankings shift substantially across structural causal model families and protocols.

The paper presents CausalArena, a unified and evolvable benchmark for causal discovery combining synthetic structural causal models, semantically grounded operational SCMs, formula-grounded scientific SCMs, and public real-world datasets. Experiments across classical, neural, and pretrained causal discovery foundation models show large ranking shifts between benchmark regimes. The authors identify pretraining-evaluation overlap and benchmark diversity as central evaluation challenges.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL · 5d agoAI research

Same Trajectory, Contradictory Rewards (ROBORMBENCH): Paraphrase Fragility in Vision Language Reward Models

New ROBORMBENCH benchmark shows vision-language reward models can flip robot success/failure judgments when goal instructions are paraphrased.

The authors show that paraphrasing the instruction alone can substantially change progress scores from VLM reward models, even flipping identical robot trajectories between failure and success. ROBORMBENCH comprises 2,390 real-robot trajectories with ground-truth progress labels and 21,673 verified paraphrases covering lexical, syntactic, and action-goal rewrites. Instability is widespread across proprietary and open-source VLMs, grows with more divergent rewrites, and is not reliably reduced by scale or explicit reasoning, while trajectory-grounded dedicated reward models are markedly more stable.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL · 11d agoAI research1

NCP-ArchPreview Technical Report: Moving towards Latent Space Language Models through Next Concept Prediction

An 8.9B-parameter latent-space language model using next-concept prediction matches OLMo-3-7B pretraining loss with only 51.3% of the training tokens.

NCP-ArchPreview augments next-token prediction with Next Concept Prediction over a product-quantized concept vocabulary built from hidden states, trained jointly end-to-end. The 8.9B model was trained on 5.73T tokens from the Dolma-3 dataset, the largest latent-space language model demonstration to date. It consumes 51.3% of the tokens to reach OLMo-3-7B's final pretraining loss and outperforms it by 2.45 points on the downstream macro-average, including a 5.99-point GSM8K gain. The learned latent space also enables lightweight domain adaptation via a 17M-parameter VQ module and improves speculative drafting accepted length by 4.17%.

Hugging Face daily papers · 7d agoAI research1

ENCP: Episode-Normalized Conformal Prediction for Vision-and-Language Navigation

ENCP calibrates conformal prediction per navigation episode, giving step-level coverage guarantees for vision-language navigation agents despite within-episode dependence.

Episode-Normalized Conformal Prediction (ENCP) rescales a nonconformity score by a VLN policy's residual confidence and calibrates one maximum score per episode, preserving step-level coverage of at least 1−α despite dependence among steps within an episode. Across four VLN policies and three nonconformity scores on R2R and REVERIE, ENCP meets all reported empirical step-coverage targets in seen-to-unseen evaluation. The model-agnostic uncertainty estimates can signal when an agent should defer to a stronger predictor or human assistance.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL · 19h agoAI research

Generative Marketing Mix Modeling: A Causal Inference Framework Linking GEO and GEM to Business Impact

Paper proposes Generative Marketing Mix Modeling to causally estimate Generative Engine Optimization and Marketing effects on business outcomes.

The authors develop GMMM, a causal inference framework for measuring how often users see and notice a firm's name in generated answers, which standard marketing data ignore. For GEO it combines repeated generated answers with question counts, shares of generative-system usage and notice probabilities; for GEM it uses sponsored placement records with notice probabilities. The framework compares expected business responses under alternative treatment sequences, establishes identification conditions, and is evaluated on simulated product-recommendation answers in English and Japanese.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL · 5d agoAI research

K-Bench: a clinically calibrated benchmark for evaluating large language models in high-risk mental health conversations

Clinician-calibrated K-Bench evaluates 125 LLM configurations on 200 high-risk mental health vignettes, exposing wide variation in suicide and violence risk handling.

K-Bench is a clinician-calibrated, protected benchmark evaluating 125 model configurations from 33 base models across 14 providers on 200 multi-turn vignettes covering suicide, self-harm, domestic violence, substance misuse and no-risk presentations. A frozen GPT-4o judge achieved 94.2% exact agreement with clinician consensus across 6,751 eligible comparisons from 151 clinician-rated transcripts. Leading models combined supportive conversation with combined-risk scores above 95, while risk exploration varied substantially among weaker configurations; therapeutic prompting helped weaker models and elevated reasoning produced no average improvement. A continuously updated public leaderboard is hosted at k-bench.ai with protected test materials.

The 2026 PNPL Competition: Word Classification and Efficient Cross-Subject Generalisation in LibriBrain100

The 2026 PNPL competition releases LibriBrain100, a MEG speech dataset with 32 extra subjects, targeting word classification and cross-subject BCI generalization.

The 2025 PNPL competition on non-invasive speech decoding from MEG achieved F1-macro scores of 95.6% for speech detection and 73.6% for phoneme classification, built on LibriBrain's ~50 hours of single-subject data. The 2026 edition extends this with LibriBrain100, adding 32 subjects (~40 minutes each) plus ~80 hours of within-subject data. Two tracks target within-subject word classification at scale and cross-subject generalization with subject-specific fine-tuning shrinking from ~40 to ~20 to ~10 minutes, aiming at clinically feasible non-invasive BCIs for people with profound paralysis.

Hugging Face daily papers · 13d agoAI research

Design Docs Are All You Need: An AI-native Machine-Learning Performance Tool

Researchers present SMART, an ML performance-modeling library regenerated by AI coding agents from natural-language design docs instead of code.

The paper describes SMART, a symbolic performance-modeling library whose main branch contains almost no code: the repository is a DAG of self-contained design documents, and coding sub-agents regenerate implementations from only the docs on version updates. Reliability rests on a worked-example doc style used as in-context demonstrations and a minimal operator IR with SymPy cost expressions, offering both fast analytical roll-up and fine-grained modulo-scheduling modes. Regenerated implementations reproduce hand-audited reference models, including DeepSeek-V3 serving on a TPU pod slice, to round-off precision.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL · 11d agoAI research1

Cognition Releases SWE-2: A Kimi K3 Post-Trained Coding Model That Matches Fable 5.1 on FrontierCode at 64% Lower Cost

Cognition released SWE-2, an RL post-trained coding model from Kimi K3, scoring 50.0% on FrontierCode 1.1 Main and available only inside Devin.

Cognition released SWE-2, its most capable coding model, post-trained with reinforcement learning from Moonshot AI's 2.8T-parameter Kimi K3 base. It scores 50.0% on FrontierCode 1.1 Main, within 1 point of Fable 5.1 at 64% lower cost, and RL reportedly adds 5-6 points over the K3 base on many benchmarks. It is the first Cognition model with selectable reasoning-effort levels all trained in a single RL run using Pareto-slope-matched cost penalties. There are no open weights and no standalone API; it runs only inside Devin (Desktop, CLI, with Web and Fusion rolling out), free for paid tiers through October 10, 2026.

MarkTechPost · 3d agoModel release1

Reference-Based Bias Detection in LLMs via Relative Representations of Hidden States

Researchers propose auditing LLM bias via relative hidden-state representations, detecting bias increases with 3-50x less compute than output-level benchmarks.

The paper introduces a reference-based bias auditing method that compares hidden-state representations across model variants, such as before and after fine-tuning, by encoding sentences relative to a fixed anchor set. The resulting Representational Bias Shift (Delta-B) correlates with output-level bias change in 15 of 18 tested settings, reaching |r| = 0.84 under full fine-tuning across WildGuardMix, DecodingTrust, and ToxiGen benchmarks. Thresholding Delta-B detects checkpoints whose bias increased with ROC AUC between 0.65 and 0.99 and beats a SEAT-based baseline, while auditing a model in about three minutes with 3-50x less compute.

Hugging Face daily papers · 7d agoAI research

Molecular Déjà Vu: Digit-Level Retrieval of Published Values in Frontier Language Models

Audit of 22 frontier models finds widespread verbatim retrieval of published molecular property values, with higher reasoning increasing recall of memorized numbers.

An arXiv audit tests 22 frontier LLMs across 12 molecular regression benchmarks for verbatim retrieval of published values. More than 50% of the LLMs show verbatim retrieval on five datasets, and identical experiments are flagged 89% more often at a high reasoning level than at the lowest one. Suppressing retrieval moves model prediction errors closer together in relative terms, suggesting predictive capability is not determined solely by memorized values.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL · 11d agoAI research1

Evaluating Time-Series Foundation Models and Multimodal Dietary Context for CGM Forecasting

Study finds zero-shot time-series foundation models underperform on CGM forecasting; fine-tuned Chronos-Bolt cuts RMSE up to 18.4% and dietary context adds signal.

The paper evaluates time-series foundation models for continuous glucose monitoring forecasting across eight public datasets covering Type 1 diabetes, Type 2 diabetes, and non-diabetes populations. Under a unified protocol, zero-shot foundation models did not consistently outperform baselines like Elastic Net and PatchTST, but lightweight fine-tuning did, with fine-tuned Chronos-Bolt reducing RMSE by 6.5%-18.4% in the T1D cohort and 8.6%-18.2% in the non-diabetes/T2D cohort. A residual-based fusion framework adding dietary context from CGMacros reduced overall RMSE by about 3% and postprandial RMSE by about 15% versus CGM-only baselines.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL · 5d agoAI research

From Reweighting to Rewriting: Unlocking the Intervention Effects of Influential Samples in Training Data Attribution

Study shows rewriting responses of influence-selected training examples shifts LLM behavior more strongly than reweighting the same samples.

The paper examines training data attribution, arguing that influence functions identify high-leverage examples whose value goes unrealized under conventional weight-based reweighting interventions. It introduces influence-guided response rewriting, which replaces the responses of influence-selected examples with behavior-aligned or behavior-opposed supervision while keeping instructions fixed, tested across four open-weight LLMs using epistemic abstention as the primary testbed. Rewriting produces stronger, more persistent, and bidirectional behavioral shifts, including on safety refusal, while reweighting the same examples yields weak, inconsistent effects. The results motivate intervention-aware evaluation of TDA methods.

Hugging Face daily papers · 14d agoAI research

Guiding Worker Self-Selection in Crowdsourcing Contests: An LLM-Augmented Algorithmic Approach

Researchers introduce GRAF, a greedy framework for crowdsourcing contest self-selection, and LLMScore, an LLM-driven method that auto-designs its scoring algorithm.

The paper studies self-selection in Tullock contests (SSTC), where workers choose contests and then compete within them. GRAF is a greedy polynomial-time framework that orders workers by a score vector with zero worker regret and platform optimality guarantees in special cases. LLMScore is an LLM-driven evolutionary framework that produces human-readable, inspectable scoring code, jointly optimizing platform utility and worker satisfaction. Across 1,000 synthetic instances in four settings, GRAF with LLMScore achieves high-quality, often near-optimal outcomes with low worker regret, transferring from small training instances to larger, structurally different settings.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL · 8d agoAI research1

GE-Act 2.0: Pretraining and Scaling a World-Action Model for Robotic Manipulation

GE-Act 2.0 is a from-scratch pretrained world-action model for robotic manipulation, with success rising from 17.1% to 44.1% as co-training data scales to 30,000 hours.

Genie Envisioner Act 2.0 (GE-Act 2.0) is a world-action model whose generative and action components are all initialized from scratch on manipulation data, combining a control-oriented autoencoder (CoAE), single-step visual planner (SVP), and inverse dynamics model (IDM) trained jointly via knowledge-aligned selective optimization (KASO). Scaling co-training data from 300 to 30,000 hours raises zero-shot success from 17.1% to 44.1% on G1-OP and 13.4% to 31.1% on G2-90D, despite the latter comprising under 2% of data, suggesting cross-embodiment transfer. Gains span 19/20 and 18/20 skill groups, and skill-specific coverage correlates with zero-shot OOD success (Pearson r=0.80).

Hugging Face daily papers · 12d agoAI research

τ^τ-Bench: An Environment for End-To-End, Realistic Agent Construction

New τ^τ-bench tasks coding agents with building deployable customer-service agents; best config, Claude Opus 5, passes only 23.9% of simulations.

Researchers introduce τ^τ-bench, an end-to-end benchmark where a developer agent must build a complete customer-service agent from real business records, a client with requirements, a production API, an inherited codebase, and cost/model limits, then is scored by deploying it against held-out simulated users. Across 53 tasks in four domains, the strongest configuration, Claude Opus 5 under Claude Code, passes just 23.9% of evaluation simulations versus an 82.2% expert-authored reference ceiling. Failure modes mirror those of human developers: shallow queries instead of deep record comprehension, almost no client communication, and shipping the first architecture that runs rather than experimenting.

Hugging Face daily papers · 12d agoAI research

Emergency Department Revisit Quality Review Screening: Exploring Human Decision-Making and Artificial Intelligence Support

A retrospective study found GPT-4 over-flagged emergency department revisit cases while an LLM knowledge-graph screener achieved 83-100% positive predictive value.

In an exploratory retrospective study of 99 emergency department diagnosis pairs from a multihospital health system, clinicians and GPT-4 independently judged whether revisit pairs warranted further assessment. GPT-4 responses correlated poorly with clinicians, flagging 94% of pairs for follow-up, 4.4-13.3 times more than clinicians, though prompt engineering was minimal. An algorithm leveraging an LLM-populated knowledge graph (KGA) achieved 83-100% positive predictive value against at least one clinician rater, suggesting LLM-based screening could broaden revisit quality review without substantially increasing reviewer workload.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL · 6d agoAI research1

Large Language Models Develop Belief State Geometry In-Context

Probing six open-source LLMs on HMM-generated data shows belief states are linearly decodable (R² 0.83–0.99), suggesting in-context learning approximates Bayesian prediction.

Researchers prompted six open-source LLMs with data from 40 hidden Markov models selected for non-trivial belief structure and probed residual-stream activations for belief states (posteriors over hidden states). Belief states were linearly decodable with peak R² values of 0.83–0.99 across HMM/LLM combinations, spanning early to late layers. Patching and steering the probe-identified subspace preserved downstream prediction quality while control interventions degraded performance substantially, establishing functional relevance. The results provide representation-level evidence that in-context learning approximates optimal Bayesian prediction over a context-inferred generative model.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL · 20h agoAI research

When LLM judges agree, should we believe them?

Amazon ICML paper uses Ising models to correct correlated LLM-judge votes, beating accuracy-weighted panels by 9-14%.

Amazon Science describes an ICML paper, "Dependence-aware label aggregation for LLM-as-a-judge via Ising models," addressing how correlated judge outputs inflate majority-vote confidence. The unsupervised method models pairwise dependence between judges, learning both reliability and similarity without human reference labels. Tested on relevance, toxicity, and summarization tasks with 10 judge models at temperature zero, it outperformed accuracy-weighted voting by 9% to 14%.

Cognition's SWE-2 achieves 92.8 on Terminal-Bench 2.1

Cognition releases SWE-2, a 2.8T-parameter MoE coding model post-trained from Kimi K3, scoring 92.8 on Terminal-Bench 2.1.

SWE-2 is a proprietary mixture-of-experts model with 2.8T total parameters and 104B active per token, built on the Kimi K3 base with additional Cognition reinforcement-learning post-training for agentic coding. Vendor-reported benchmarks include FrontierCode 1.1 Main 50.0, DeepSWE 1.1 73.0, Terminal-Bench 2.1 92.8, and Terminal-Bench 4.0 27.3. It claims to be one point behind Claude Fable 5.1 on FrontierCode at a claimed 64% lower cost, but trails Fable 5.1 and GPT-6 Astra by a wide margin on long-horizon Terminal-Bench 4.0 tasks. The model is available today in Devin Desktop and CLI, with no published weights, no per-token API pricing, and all figures pending independent replication.

Hacker News · AIupdated · 3d agofirst · 5d agoModel release 10 sourcesHN 40↑ · 18 comments

Studying Image Tokenizers as Visual Languages in Unified Multimodal Models

A controlled pure-autoregressive testbed shows task-specific validation losses rank image tokenizers differently, with I2T loss the most consistent signal.

Researchers built a controlled pure-autoregressive testbed and tracked task-specific validation losses during multimodal continual pretraining across text, image, text-to-image (T2I), and image-to-text (I2T) prediction. They find losses should be analyzed per task because they exhibit distinct scaling behavior and rank tokenizers differently, and that the loss-performance relationship depends on the predicted token space. I2T loss, computed over a shared text vocabulary, correlates consistently with both generation and visual understanding performance after supervised finetuning. Case studies revisit the discriminator, semantic supervision, and vocabulary size as tokenizer design axes.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL · 7d agoAI research1

NeoHorse-1: Towards Recursive Self-Improvement via Agentic Post-Training with Routing Harness

NeoHorse-1 introduces agentic post-training with intelligent routing that lifts agent benchmark scores at 4B and 9B scales, prototyping recursive self-improvement.

NeoHorse-1 is a family of agent-native models trained through agentic post-training: routing-harness logs (predicted capability demand, service tier, interaction) become structurally validated training data organized into a three-stage SFT curriculum plus routing-guided on-policy distillation. Capability-guided allocation converts evaluation feedback into the next training mixture, closing an evaluation-selection-update loop. Post-training raises the macro-average from 58.94 to 64.87 at 4B and from 65.60 to 69.04 at 9B across eleven agent, tool-use, coding, and instruction-following benchmarks. The authors position it as a prototype of harness-mediated recursive self-improvement.

Hugging Face daily papers · 8d agoAI research

Benchmark Radar: A Living Database and Search Engine for AI Benchmarks and Evaluation

Benchmark Radar provides a living searchable database of 1,283 AI benchmark records and 12,916 score observations drawn from 37 daily discovery sources.

Benchmark Radar combines daily discovery of benchmark papers, repositories, datasets, and releases from 13 direct connectors and 24 first-party feeds into a searchable catalog with model card mentions and score histories. The catalog contains 1,283 source records drawn from 4 benchmark catalogs plus 12,916 numeric observations on 790 records. The release includes a web dashboard with leaderboard, Pareto frontier of score versus usage, saturation and trend views, daily feeds, a CLI, and reproducible analysis. The paper audits the full catalog and examines benchmark saturation and limits of score comparisons.

Hugging Face daily papers · 6d agoAI research

The Router Within: Eliciting Native Skill Routing from a Frozen LLM

Gavel reads native skill-routing signals from a frozen LLM's forward passes with two linear maps, beating retrieve-and-rerank pipelines by up to 21.9 points on Qwen3-32B.

Gavel (Glance And Verdict from a frozen LLM) elicits skill routing from a frozen agent LLM using two trained linear maps that read mid-layer states, keeping all skill text out of context. A glance step scores the full library against compact per-skill banks built in one forward pass at installation; a verdict step resumes shortlisted skills' forward passes and fuses likelihood and yes/no judgments as a product of experts. It transfers zero-shot to three public benchmarks plus SkillTraj, a new benchmark of 372 simulated agent trajectories. On Qwen3-32B it beats progressive disclosure and retrieve-and-rerank pipelines adding 1.2B–16B external parameters by up to 13.4 points on written tasks and 21.9 when skills are needed mid-rollout.

Hugging Face daily papersupdated · 1d agofirst · 2d agoAI research 2 sources