Search: “roi-analysis”

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From Reweighting to Rewriting: Unlocking the Intervention Effects of Influential Samples in Training Data Attribution

Study shows rewriting responses of influence-selected training examples shifts LLM behavior more strongly than reweighting the same samples.

The paper examines training data attribution, arguing that influence functions identify high-leverage examples whose value goes unrealized under conventional weight-based reweighting interventions. It introduces influence-guided response rewriting, which replaces the responses of influence-selected examples with behavior-aligned or behavior-opposed supervision while keeping instructions fixed, tested across four open-weight LLMs using epistemic abstention as the primary testbed. Rewriting produces stronger, more persistent, and bidirectional behavioral shifts, including on safety refusal, while reweighting the same examples yields weak, inconsistent effects. The results motivate intervention-aware evaluation of TDA methods.

Hugging Face daily papers·Sep 1, 20:00 UTC · 14d agoAI research

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Generative Marketing Mix Modeling: A Causal Inference Framework Linking GEO and GEM to Business Impact

Paper proposes Generative Marketing Mix Modeling to causally estimate Generative Engine Optimization and Marketing effects on business outcomes.

The authors develop GMMM, a causal inference framework for measuring how often users see and notice a firm's name in generated answers, which standard marketing data ignore. For GEO it combines repeated generated answers with question counts, shares of generative-system usage and notice probabilities; for GEM it uses sponsored placement records with notice probabilities. The framework compares expected business responses under alternative treatment sequences, establishes identification conditions, and is evaluated on simulated product-recommendation answers in English and Japanese.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 10, 17:57 UTC · 5d agoAI research

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ActReview: Rebuttal-Guided Training Data and Rubric Rewards for Actionable Peer Review Generation

ActReview post-trains Qwen3-8B-Base on 40K rebuttal-derived instances with rubric rewards to generate actionable, grounded peer-review feedback, plus a 1,000-instance benchmark.

The framework builds ActReview-40K from real OpenReview review-rebuttal threads, aligning reviewer weaknesses with author responses and grounding feedback in localized paper evidence. Qwen3-8B-Base is post-trained with multi-task supervised fine-tuning followed by GRPO using candidate-aware, weakness-specific rubric rewards. Experiments show improved actionability and grounding over prior specialized review-generation models, supported by ActReview-Bench, a human-curated 1,000-instance evaluation set. Human evaluation confirms better revision usefulness while noting a remaining gap in technical accuracy.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 8, 17:30 UTC · 7d agoAI research

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Coding Is Over. Get over It

A JPMorgan Chase engineer reflects on AI agents outpacing hand-coding, questioning ROI while predicting inference costs will become negligible.

A personal essay by a software engineer with 15+ years at JPMorgan Chase describes how AI coding agents now outperform him and have transformed his workflow. He argues AI ROI is unmeasurable, praises cheap small models such as GPT 5.6 Luna, and cites Claude Code head Boris Cherny's advice to discard AGENTS.md/Claude.md rule files. He contends coding is no longer scarce, worries entry-level jobs will be automated first, and predicts AI's bigger impact lies outside coding.

Hacker News · security·Sep 12, 13:16 UTC · 3d agoAI industryHN 20↑ · 26 comments2

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Data Scarcity and Model Sparsity: Mixtures-of-Experts Overfit More to Repeated Data

Study finds Mixture-of-Experts models overfit faster than dense Transformers under repeated training data, with degradation tied to total parameter sparsity.

Across models from 80M to 1B active parameters (8.5B total), MoE architectures degrade more rapidly than dense models when training data is repeated, with the effect increasing with sparsity as dictated by total parameters. Dense 80M models tolerate 8x repetition with minimal loss while MoEs suffer at 4x and underperform dense models beyond 32x. Masking-based regularization such as dropout mitigates overfitting, letting MoEs beat dense models even at over 64x repetition, though no method matches all-unique training data. Routing stabilizes early and expert specialization correlates with overfitting to repeated data.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 10, 17:57 UTC · 5d agoAI research

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ActReview: Rebuttal-Guided Training Data and Rubric Rewards for Actionable Peer Review Generation

ActReview post-trains Qwen3-8B-Base on OpenReview rebuttals to generate actionable peer-review feedback with grounded revision suggestions, benchmarked on 1,000 curated instances.

The paper defines Actionable Peer-review Generation as diagnostic claim generation plus revision suggestion generation and introduces ActReview, a rebuttal-guided post-training framework. From OpenReview review-rebuttal threads the authors build ActReview-40K, aligning reviewer weaknesses with author responses grounded in localized paper evidence, and post-train Qwen3-8B-Base with multi-task SFT followed by GRPO using weakness-specific rubric rewards. They also release ActReview-Bench, a human-curated 1,000-instance benchmark, on which ActReview outperforms prior specialized review-generation models on actionability and grounding while remaining competitive with strong prompt-based LLMs. Human evaluation confirms improved revision usefulness but identifies a remaining gap in technical accuracy.

Hugging Face daily papers·Sep 7, 20:00 UTC · 8d agoAI research

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Reference-Based Bias Detection in LLMs via Relative Representations of Hidden States

Researchers propose auditing LLM bias via relative hidden-state representations, detecting bias increases with 3-50x less compute than output-level benchmarks.

The paper introduces a reference-based bias auditing method that compares hidden-state representations across model variants, such as before and after fine-tuning, by encoding sentences relative to a fixed anchor set. The resulting Representational Bias Shift (Delta-B) correlates with output-level bias change in 15 of 18 tested settings, reaching |r| = 0.84 under full fine-tuning across WildGuardMix, DecodingTrust, and ToxiGen benchmarks. Thresholding Delta-B detects checkpoints whose bias increased with ROC AUC between 0.65 and 0.99 and beats a SEAT-based baseline, while auditing a model in about three minutes with 3-50x less compute.

Hugging Face daily papers·Sep 8, 20:00 UTC · 7d agoAI research

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Necessary or Sufficient? Evaluating LLM Explanations With Behavioural Evidence

New framework tests whether LLM-cited explanation factors are necessary or sufficient, finding weak correlation across Claude, GPT, and Gemini models.

An arXiv paper introduces black-box intervention tests measuring whether factors LLMs cite in their explanations are necessary or sufficient for their outputs in agent oversight workflows. Across eight models from the Claude, GPT, and Gemini families, Spearman correlations between cited rankings and measured influence ranged from 0.349-0.354 (advisor recommendation) to 0.431-0.580 (prompt monitoring). Uncited factors scored above the lowest cited factor in up to 57.6% of advisor responses, showing cited top-three factors do not reliably identify the most influential inputs.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 4, 17:37 UTC · 11d agoAI safety & security1

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The Frontier AEO Tracker: What Astra Chooses (and every other frontier model, and what you can do about it)

Latent Space launches an AEO tracker scoring 7 frontier models' product recommendations across 161 categories, revealing generational bias flips.

Latent Space built a tracker measuring Answer Engine Optimization by running 6 prompt variations across 7 frontier models with search enabled over 161 product categories, scoring first choices, alternatives, mentions, and anti-recommendations. It found 28 categories with a universally dominant primary choice and observed soft biases, such as models favoring their own lab's coding agents. Analysis of Anthropic's Sol→Astra and Opus→Fable generations showed newer models consulting fewer sources and being less likely to change answers when questions are paraphrased.

Latent Space·Sep 7, 21:32 UTC · 8d agoAI research

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A Hybrid LSTM-XGBoost Framework for Multi-Horizon Stock Return Prediction Across Diversified Equity Portfolios

Hybrid LSTM-XGBoost model predicts multi-horizon returns for 14 US equities, cutting 30-day RMSE to about one-third of a standalone LSTM baseline.

The paper combines a two-layer LSTM (64 hidden units) processing 60-day windows of five market features with an XGBoost regressor over a 78-dimensional hybrid feature vector including 14 technical indicators. It is trained on pooled data for 14 US equities across six sectors using chronological splits and per-stock MinMaxScaling to prevent look-ahead bias, and evaluated at 30, 90, 252, and 365 trading-day horizons. The hybrid achieves test RMSE of 0.0949 at 30 days, roughly one-third of the standalone LSTM, while 97.6% directional accuracy at 365 days largely tracks the base rate of positive returns.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 11, 17:51 UTC · 4d agoAI research

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Engineered Persuasion: Evaluating Personalized Pretexts in LLM-Generated Spear Phishing

A study of 180 US workers found each LLM phishing personalization level raised click-intention odds by 28%, but credibility depends on context fit.

The arXiv paper evaluates how personalized pretexts in LLM-generated spear phishing affect perceived credibility, using 180 US working adults across 1,436 evaluations of emails with four cumulative personalization levels, from workplace context to shared-project details. Convincingness rose 2.40 points per level in sensitivity analysis and click-intention odds increased 28% per level, while non-clickers shifted toward deleting rather than reporting. Qualitative coding showed details matching the recipient's role and routines supported credibility, whereas incorrect, vague, or channel-inappropriate details raised suspicion. The authors argue personalization effectiveness depends on pretext fit, with implications for workplace security training.

arXiv cs.CR·Sep 3, 19:21 UTC · 12d agoResearch

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E2A-Bench: Benchmarking Evidence-to-Action Reliability in Financial Chart Reasoning

E2A-Bench, a 969-query financial chart reasoning benchmark, finds VLMs fail evidence-to-action consistency, with fine-tuning amplifying BUY:SELL bias 4-6x.

E2A-Bench is a 969-query benchmark built from 323 HS300 constituents across three input modalities with deterministic OHLCV-derived evidence anchors, evaluating grounding, reasoning-action consistency, evidence-confidence calibration, and directional coverage via UCR, RCI, ECI, and NDR metrics. Testing 20 VLMs showed the lowest-hallucination model ranked near the bottom on coverage with only 6.4% directional coverage, and oracle-aided verification reduced unsupported claims but could collapse coverage. Financial fine-tuning amplified the BUY:SELL ratio by factors of 4.21 to 4.68 across base-fine-tuned pairs.

Hugging Face daily papers·Sep 12, 20:00 UTC · 3d agoAI research

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DataFlex-RL: An Evaluation Platform for RLVR Data Policies

DataFlex-RL benchmark of 13 RLVR data policies on Qwen2.5-7B finds none reproducibly beats uniform sampling under matched GRPO training.

DataFlex-RL is an evaluation platform comparing rollout-selection, reweighting, and mixture data policies for RLVR under a common GRPO recipe. Across 13 configurations and 12 matched seeds with Qwen2.5-7B-Base on 12 math, logic, and science benchmarks, uniform GRPO improved domain-balanced accuracy by 7.76 points, but no alternative policy achieved a statistically significant improvement. A corrected 12-seed Llama-3.1-8B-Base extension found no consistent winner, and math-heavy evaluation summaries were negatively correlated (-0.33) with domain-balanced summaries.

Hugging Face daily papers·Sep 4, 20:00 UTC · 11d agoAI research

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Show HN: LLM Attention Visualization

A developer released a browser-based tool that visualizes which past tokens influence each LLM output token using aggregated, value-weighted attention scores.

A Show HN project presents a React application built on Transformers.js that renders per-token attention influence by aggregating attention weights scaled by value-vector magnitudes across all attention heads and layers. To expose internal tensors, the author instrumented the ONNX computation graph, hosted a modified model on Hugging Face, and pre-generated prompts to avoid long model downloads in the browser. Demos with a 600-million-parameter model show how verbatim copying draws heavily on source tokens and how single outputs blend information from multiple phrases.

Hacker News · AI·Sep 8, 16:59 UTC · 7d agoAI tools & infraHN 41↑ · 9 comments

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Do Input-Level Defenses Transfer to Observation-Level Attacks on VideoLLMs?

A systematic study shows input-level adversarial defenses provide inconsistent, often near-zero protection against observation-level attacks on video LLMs.

Researchers introduce DefTEval, a controlled framework testing eleven input-level defenses against five attack types across five video LLMs. Harmful-content detection rates are frequently near zero, and defenses fail even when attacks embed harmful signals in every sampled frame. Token compression discards localized safety features and modality fusion down-weights weakened visual signals, with defense outcomes dominated by model architecture rather than the defense method.

arXiv cs.CR·Sep 8, 06:59 UTC · 8d agoAI safety & security

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Evaluating Time-Series Foundation Models and Multimodal Dietary Context for CGM Forecasting

Study finds zero-shot time-series foundation models underperform on CGM forecasting; fine-tuned Chronos-Bolt cuts RMSE up to 18.4% and dietary context adds signal.

The paper evaluates time-series foundation models for continuous glucose monitoring forecasting across eight public datasets covering Type 1 diabetes, Type 2 diabetes, and non-diabetes populations. Under a unified protocol, zero-shot foundation models did not consistently outperform baselines like Elastic Net and PatchTST, but lightweight fine-tuning did, with fine-tuned Chronos-Bolt reducing RMSE by 6.5%-18.4% in the T1D cohort and 8.6%-18.2% in the non-diabetes/T2D cohort. A residual-based fusion framework adding dietary context from CGMacros reduced overall RMSE by about 3% and postprandial RMSE by about 15% versus CGM-only baselines.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 10, 17:43 UTC · 5d agoAI research

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Studying Image Tokenizers as Visual Languages in Unified Multimodal Models

A controlled pure-autoregressive testbed shows task-specific validation losses rank image tokenizers differently, with I2T loss the most consistent signal.

Researchers built a controlled pure-autoregressive testbed and tracked task-specific validation losses during multimodal continual pretraining across text, image, text-to-image (T2I), and image-to-text (I2T) prediction. They find losses should be analyzed per task because they exhibit distinct scaling behavior and rank tokenizers differently, and that the loss-performance relationship depends on the predicted token space. I2T loss, computed over a shared text vocabulary, correlates consistently with both generation and visual understanding performance after supervised finetuning. Case studies revisit the discriminator, semantic supervision, and vocabulary size as tokenizer design axes.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 8, 17:57 UTC · 7d agoAI research1

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Cognition hits $48B valuation, signaling investors believe AI coding is far from a winner-take-all market

Cognition, maker of Devin, raised $2 billion at a $48 billion valuation led by a16z, Accel, and Founders Fund, with revenue at $900M annualized.

Cognition raised $2 billion at a $48 billion valuation, four months after a $26 billion round, led by Andreessen Horowitz, Accel, Founders Fund, General Catalyst, and Avenir. Its annualized run-rate revenue grew from $492 million to $900 million since May, with projected $4-5 billion by end of 2026, while compute costs could push 2026 burn to $800 million. The startup, founded by Scott Wu, counts Mercedes-Benz, NASA, Goldman Sachs, and Citi as customers and is training its own model to cut reliance on OpenAI and Anthropic.

TechCrunch · AI·Sep 8, 21:04 UTC · 7d agoAI industry

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Steering Geometry: Validating Human Value Geometry in LLM Steering Space

Researchers show LLM activation steering vectors encode human value geometry predicted by Schwartz's theory, with fidelity improving at scale but degrading after instruction tuning.

The study tests whether latent geometry of activation steering vectors reflects theory-specified structure in human values, using Schwartz's Theory of Basic Human Values and a new 26K-sample benchmark spanning 20 values. Distribution-driven methods (CAA, SphericalSteer, ODESteer) recover predicted value topologies with Spearman correlation up to 0.51 (p < 10^-13), while behavior-centric methods (COLD-Steer, BiPO) steer comparably but show little geometric fidelity. Geometric alignment improves with model scale but drops after instruction tuning. Better geometric alignment also yields more human-consistent cross-value transfer, steering one value lifting compatible values and suppressing opposing ones.

Hugging Face daily papers·Sep 4, 20:00 UTC · 11d agoAI research

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BenchShield: Formal Model-Backed Instrumentation for Reward Integrity in LLM-Agent Evaluation Infrastructure

BenchShield uses lifecycle-model-backed instrumentation to detect reward hacking in LLM-agent benchmarks, lifting full-chain recall to 77-100% at up to 65% lower cost.

The framework grounds reward-hacking detection in a finite lifecycle model of an evaluation's reward-relevant events, combining a static phase-aware taint analysis with runtime infrastructure-side evidence attribution. Evaluation used a human-labeled corpus of 456 adjudicated trajectories drawn from more than 31,000 public agent runs across three benchmarks. BenchShield improves full-chain recall from 23-94% to 77-100% and same-vector coverage from 16-56% to 43-78%, cuts per-task cost by up to 65%, and achieves 96% accuracy detecting reward hacking at runtime.

arXiv cs.CR·Sep 10, 03:10 UTC · 6d agoAI safety & security1

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Distill Globally, Adapt Locally: Reasoning Distillation and Product-Type Test-Time Training for Scalable Trade-Up Recommendation

A distillation framework compresses LLM reasoning into a 15.5M-parameter trade-up recommendation model reaching AUC 0.941 with product-type test-time training.

The paper targets trade-up recommendation, which identifies higher-quality alternatives that preserve customer purchase intent. A retrieval-augmented few-shot LLM teacher generates labels and rationales that supervise a compact embedding-pair classifier; at inference the 15.5M-parameter student uses only two precomputed 768-dimensional embeddings with no LLM calls. On 8,352 annotated pairs, label-only training scored AUC 0.912, reasoning distillation reached 0.924, and product-type test-time training lifted it to 0.941 with average precision 0.940. The distilled student is roughly 5,000x faster and 10,000x cheaper than direct LLM inference on a 100K-pair proxy catalog.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 4, 17:08 UTC · 11d agoAI research

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The Pelican comparison grid for Astra is pretty interesting

Simon Willison's pelican SVG comparison shows GPT-6 Astra producing markedly better images than GPT-5.6 Sol, Terra, and Luna across reasoning levels.

Willison generated pelicans-riding-bicycles SVGs with newly accessed GPT-6 Astra at low through max reasoning levels and rendered them in a comparison grid against GPT-5.6 Sol, Terra, and Luna. Astra's outputs were markedly more coherent, while even the best GPT-5.6-Sol images remained largely abstract shapes. Astra does not support a reasoning=none setting, so all comparisons involved reasoning-enabled runs.

Simon Willison·Sep 4, 23:59 UTC · 11d agoAI research

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Encoded Early, Used Late: Where Transformers Begin to Act on an Inferred Partner's Expertise

Probing finds transformers represent an inferred dialogue partner's expertise in early layers long before it causally influences output.

Using ExpertCollab, a corpus of multi-turn research-planning dialogues between model-played personas at four expertise levels, researchers show that a partner's inferred expertise is most decodable in early transformer layers and decays to near chance before the network's midpoint. Counterfactual patching reveals that injecting the expertise difference at peak decodability barely changes a fixed late-layer readout, while injection past the midpoint propagates almost completely. The result bounds where readout or steering of partner-conditioned behavior must intervene, demonstrated on a single model with a synthetic corpus.

Hugging Face daily papers·Sep 6, 20:00 UTC · 9d agoAI research

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Studying Image Tokenizers as Visual Languages in Unified Multimodal Models

A controlled autoregressive testbed shows validation losses must be analyzed per task, and image tokenizer choice affects joint multimodal text modeling.

Researchers built a pure-autoregressive testbed to study image tokenizers as the 'visual language' of unified multimodal models, tracking task-specific validation losses during multimodal continual pretraining across text, image, text-to-image (T2I), and image-to-text (I2T) prediction. They found that losses exhibit distinct scaling behavior per task and rank tokenizers differently, and that I2T loss over a shared text vocabulary gives a more consistent loss–performance signal than T2I loss. Better reconstruction does not necessarily yield lower task-specific losses or stronger downstream performance, and tokenizer choice can affect text modeling under joint optimization. Case studies examine the discriminator, semantic supervision, and vocabulary size design axes.

Hugging Face daily papers·Sep 7, 20:00 UTC · 8d agoAI research1

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Causal Foundation Models

A paper introduces causal foundation models (CFMs): pretrained networks that estimate treatment effects on new datasets via in-context learning without fine-tuning.

Causal foundation models (CFMs) apply the foundation-model paradigm to causal inference, replacing bespoke per-problem estimator pipelines with networks pretrained once at scale. CFMs estimate causal quantities such as the average treatment effect on entirely new datasets through in-context learning, without model updates. The work serves as a practical introduction to the emerging area, covering background in causal inference and machine learning and including example code and Jupyter notebooks.

Hugging Face daily papers·Sep 1, 20:00 UTC · 14d agoAI research

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You Can't Prefer Emotions You Don't Sample: Intensity Undershoot in DPO-Tuned LLMs

Study quantifies DPO-tuned LLMs undershooting requested emotional intensity, tracing the gap to candidate-pool extremity rather than conditioning format.

Conditioning an instruction-tuned LLM on continuous valence-arousal targets yields gain of only 0.26 for valence and 0.13 for arousal on Llama-3.1-8B, far below faithful control of 1.0. The authors attribute undershoot to neutral-heavy preference corpora like EmoBank and candidate pools lacking extreme affect, leaving DPO without extreme exemplars. Uniform target coverage with a hotter candidate pool raises valence gain to 0.40 on Llama-3.1-8B and 0.44 on Qwen3-8B, with modest in-distribution cost; arousal gains remain unstable across seeds.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 7, 17:47 UTC · 8d agoAI research

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When Agents Slow Down: Understanding LLM Agents' Test-Time Strategies via Elo-per-token Analysis

Elo-per-token analysis shows LLM agents' marginal gains drop below independent sampling at scale; parallel sessions beat one long session.

The paper proposes Elo-per-token analysis, using a Bradley-Terry model to measure how agent performance scales with token budget on open-ended tasks with continuous scoring. Across four agents and four benchmarks with sessions up to 100M tokens, agents initially convert tokens to Elo faster than independent sampling but eventually slow below the linear-in-log-compute reference. The authors define a scaling inflection point and show that splitting 100M tokens across parallel sessions on FrontierCS Polyomino Packing gains +264 Elo over one long session and +355 over ten short sessions. Human contestants on shared AtCoder Heuristic Contest tasks improve superlinearly, indicating headroom over current agents.

Hugging Face daily papers·Sep 13, 20:00 UTC · 2d agoAI research3· 2 reads

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A First-Principles Evaluation of Graph-Based Network Intrusion Detection Systems

GIDS-Eval framework reveals evaluation gaps in graph-based network intrusion detection; two crafted edges fully evade three detector-dataset pairs.

Researchers introduce GIDS-Eval, a framework decomposing graph-based network intrusion detection systems into six interchangeable stages to enable controlled comparisons. Surveying nine GIDS and reimplementing five, they find two crafted edges achieve full evasion against three of eight detector-dataset pairs, snapshot windows alone cause a mean 38.3% relative swing in average precision, and none of 18 replayed detector-dataset pairs can alert as events arrive. Their encoder-free GIDS-Lite control ranks first by AP on two of four datasets at up to 575x lower runtime.

arXiv cs.CR·Sep 10, 22:38 UTC · 5d agoResearch1

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Multi-Vector (Late Interaction) Embedding Models with Sentence Transformers

Hugging Face details building and using multi-vector late-interaction embedding models with Sentence Transformers for retrieval workloads.

Hugging Face published a guide on multi-vector, late-interaction embedding models (ColBERT-style) supported through Sentence Transformers. The post covers how practitioners can build and use these models for retrieval and RAG pipelines. It is a developer tooling and technique write-up, not a security advisory.

Hugging Face Blog·Aug 18, 00:00 UTC · 29d agoAI tools & infra1

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PIDS-Bench: Evaluating Prompt-Injection Detectors Under Over-Defense, Obfuscation, and Distribution Shift

PIDS-Bench shows prompt-injection detectors scoring F1 above 0.98 still misclassify about one-third of external benign security-adjacent prompts, revealing provenance-sensitive over-defense.

PIDS-Bench is a frozen multi-axis benchmark that jointly evaluates prompt-injection detectors on attack detection and benign false-positive behavior at fixed thresholds, spanning in-distribution inputs, hard-benign prompts, obfuscated attacks, and domain/structural distribution shifts. It evaluates seven detectors plus a rule-based lower-bound reference. A detector exceeding F1 = 0.98 on held-out data still misclassifies roughly one-third of an externally-sourced benign security-adjacent subset, and no internal detector reaches F1 >= 0.95 with hard-benign FPR <= 0.10 on the stress distribution. Hard-negative augmentation nearly eliminates over-defense on curated stress inputs but leaves it intact on externally-sourced prompts, a pattern termed provenance-sensitive over-defense.

arXiv cs.CR·Sep 14, 04:28 UTC · 2d agoAI safety & security

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