Search: “structural-causal-models”

Smart search ranks by meaning as well as keywords (one row per story, last 45 days).

Causal Foundation Models

A paper introduces causal foundation models (CFMs): pretrained networks that estimate treatment effects on new datasets via in-context learning without fine-tuning.

Causal foundation models (CFMs) apply the foundation-model paradigm to causal inference, replacing bespoke per-problem estimator pipelines with networks pretrained once at scale. CFMs estimate causal quantities such as the average treatment effect on entirely new datasets through in-context learning, without model updates. The work serves as a practical introduction to the emerging area, covering background in causal inference and machine learning and including example code and Jupyter notebooks.

Hugging Face daily papers·Sep 1, 20:00 UTC · 15d agoAI research

40

CausalArena: Benchmarking Causal Discovery in the Foundation Model Era

Researchers introduce CausalArena, a unified benchmark revealing that causal discovery rankings shift substantially across structural causal model families and protocols.

The paper presents CausalArena, a unified and evolvable benchmark for causal discovery combining synthetic structural causal models, semantically grounded operational SCMs, formula-grounded scientific SCMs, and public real-world datasets. Experiments across classical, neural, and pretrained causal discovery foundation models show large ranking shifts between benchmark regimes. The authors identify pretraining-evaluation overlap and benchmark diversity as central evaluation challenges.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 10, 17:53 UTC · 6d agoAI research

30

A Chosen Future Can Still Be Rewritten: Causal Writability in Video Models

Study shows video models often learn correct physics but fail to use it; low-dimensional 'causal writability' edits can restore correct motion.

The paper demonstrates 'causal writability' in video generation models: physically correct motion remains available inside the model even when the model outputs incorrect motion. In a red/blue mass oscillation setup, a low-dimensional edit predicted from simple physical variables restores correct fast motion, with a sharp depth boundary marking commitment. Early causal writability predicts which training errors later get corrected, and both writability and closure reproduce in a pretrained 1.3B video model.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 14, 17:58 UTC · 2d agoAI research

33

Diffusion Models and Concept Formation

Paper argues diffusion models implicitly form Cobweb-like concept hierarchies, with a basic level emerging at intermediate noise levels.

The authors draw a formal correspondence between diffusion models and Cobweb, a classic incremental concept-hierarchy learner, noting both are hierarchical Bayesian density models with Gaussian prototypes. Modes of the diffusion model's noisy marginals form a hierarchy whose basic level sits at intermediate noise, where class identity commits. The correspondence is tested on MNIST and Fashion-MNIST via mode-finding. Diffusion is reframed as a cognitive model of concept formation.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 11, 16:43 UTC · 5d agoAI research

15

LimiX-2: A Contextual Mechanism Network Towards General Structured-Data Intelligence

LimiX-2 scales Contextual Mechanism Networks pretrained via context-conditional masked modeling, beating tabular foundation models on TabArena, TALENT, and BCCO benchmarks.

LimiX-2 is a new tabular model in the LimiX family, developed through model and data scaling guided by previously established scaling laws under the Contextual Mechanism Networks (CMNs) paradigm. It is pretrained with Context-Conditional Masked Modeling (CCMM) on synthetic datasets generated by structural causal models spanning diverse graph structures, functional mechanisms, and observation processes. It outperforms dataset-specific models and tabular foundation models on TabArena, TALENT, and BCCO, and its feature attention encodes direct causal relationships, enabling accurate causal skeleton recovery.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 15, 17:30 UTC · 1d agoAI research1

18

Generative Marketing Mix Modeling: A Causal Inference Framework Linking GEO and GEM to Business Impact

Paper proposes Generative Marketing Mix Modeling to causally estimate Generative Engine Optimization and Marketing effects on business outcomes.

The authors develop GMMM, a causal inference framework for measuring how often users see and notice a firm's name in generated answers, which standard marketing data ignore. For GEO it combines repeated generated answers with question counts, shares of generative-system usage and notice probabilities; for GEM it uses sponsored placement records with notice probabilities. The framework compares expected business responses under alternative treatment sequences, establishes identification conditions, and is evaluated on simulated product-recommendation answers in English and Japanese.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 10, 17:57 UTC · 6d agoAI research

20

Thought without systematicity? Evaluating reasoning models on rule induction tasks

Study finds reasoning models often fail on structurally equivalent variants of tasks they solve, suggesting their reasoning lacks systematicity.

The paper extends rule induction tasks from cognitive science using task isomorphisms such as recombination and substitution to test systematicity in reasoning models. Despite solving tasks correctly, models frequently fail on structurally equivalent variants of the same task. The authors conclude many model behaviors lack systematicity, making it difficult to establish cognitive abilities beyond the specific evaluation contexts.

Hugging Face daily papers·Sep 11, 20:00 UTC · 5d agoAI research

35

Evaluating Time-Series Foundation Models and Multimodal Dietary Context for CGM Forecasting

Study finds zero-shot time-series foundation models underperform on CGM forecasting; fine-tuned Chronos-Bolt cuts RMSE up to 18.4% and dietary context adds signal.

The paper evaluates time-series foundation models for continuous glucose monitoring forecasting across eight public datasets covering Type 1 diabetes, Type 2 diabetes, and non-diabetes populations. Under a unified protocol, zero-shot foundation models did not consistently outperform baselines like Elastic Net and PatchTST, but lightweight fine-tuning did, with fine-tuned Chronos-Bolt reducing RMSE by 6.5%-18.4% in the T1D cohort and 8.6%-18.2% in the non-diabetes/T2D cohort. A residual-based fusion framework adding dietary context from CGMacros reduced overall RMSE by about 3% and postprandial RMSE by about 15% versus CGM-only baselines.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 10, 17:43 UTC · 6d agoAI research

28

From Reweighting to Rewriting: Unlocking the Intervention Effects of Influential Samples in Training Data Attribution

Study shows rewriting responses of influence-selected training examples shifts LLM behavior more strongly than reweighting the same samples.

The paper examines training data attribution, arguing that influence functions identify high-leverage examples whose value goes unrealized under conventional weight-based reweighting interventions. It introduces influence-guided response rewriting, which replaces the responses of influence-selected examples with behavior-aligned or behavior-opposed supervision while keeping instructions fixed, tested across four open-weight LLMs using epistemic abstention as the primary testbed. Rewriting produces stronger, more persistent, and bidirectional behavioral shifts, including on safety refusal, while reweighting the same examples yields weak, inconsistent effects. The results motivate intervention-aware evaluation of TDA methods.

Hugging Face daily papers·Sep 1, 20:00 UTC · 15d agoAI research

30

Can Foundation Models Moderate Online Content? Evaluating Instruction- vs. Example-Driven Policy Operationalization

ModerationBench shows foundation models can nearly triple Bluesky's moderation F1 (0.60 vs 0.22), with instruction- and example-driven guidance performing comparably.

Researchers built ModerationBench, a new benchmark of 4,000 manually annotated in-the-wild posts from Bluesky, to test whether foundation models can reliably operationalize content moderation policies. They systematically compare instruction-driven guidance (reasoning from policy precepts) with example-driven guidance (generalizing from precedents) for Vision-Language Models. Both paradigms achieve comparable peak effectiveness, and foundation models nearly triple the F1 of Bluesky's deployed moderation system on Random Posts (0.60 vs 0.22).

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 9, 16:30 UTC · 7d agoAI research1

28

OpenWAM: An Open, Modular Exploration Towards Systematic World-Action Model Pretraining

OpenWAM releases an open modular stack for world-action model pretraining, plus OpenWAM-alpha trained on about 6,400 hours of egocentric and robot data.

OpenWAM is an open research stack that factorizes World-Action Model pretraining into composable infrastructure, study, and model components with unified training, inference, and evaluation. Controlled experiments distill three principles on knowledge inheritance, world-action synergy, and out-of-domain generalization gains from embodied co-training. The resulting OpenWAM-alpha, pretrained on roughly 6,400 hours of egocentric human and robot data, achieves top-tier results across eight simulation benchmarks and real-robot tests spanning single-arm, bimanual, and dexterous embodiments. The full stack, including infrastructure, evaluation protocols, pretrained models, and data recipes, is released openly.

Hugging Face daily papers·Sep 6, 20:00 UTC · 10d agoAI research

44

Reason Through the Latent! Making Latent Visual Reasoning Necessary

Researchers introduce CVRR, forcing multimodal models to rely on recurrent latent computation rather than accessible image tokens, validated via causal interventions and benchmarks.

The paper presents Causal Visual Recurrent Reasoning (CVRR), which makes recurrent hidden-state computation the required image-conditioned path for prediction in vision-language models. Before decoding, visual states and the original multimodal KV cache are removed so only the final recurrent state carries image information to the answer. CVRR retains strong performance on V*, MMVP, BLINK, and MME-RealWorld-Lite while comparable latent reasoners fail under the same constraint. Causal interventions show predictions remain sensitive to recurrent content and that persistent visual evidence causally revises the recurrent trajectory.

Hugging Face daily papers·Sep 5, 20:00 UTC · 11d agoAI research

25

One Symptom, Three Levers: A Critical Review of On-Policy Self-Distillation

A review paper frames on-policy self-distillation collapse as governed by three levers: token weighting, privileged information, and guidance decay.

The paper critically reviews On-Policy Self-Distillation (OPSD), where a language model trains on its own generations scored token-by-token by a teacher conditioned on privileged information such as reference solutions or environment feedback. It identifies collapse, the progressive narrowing of producible reasoning paths, as the dominant failure mode and analyzes it through three levers: signal weighting, the nature of privileged information, and teacher dynamics. The review is restricted to mathematical reasoning, reports no new experiments, and offers a shared vocabulary separating settled findings from disputed ones.

Hugging Face daily papers·Aug 25, 20:00 UTC · 22d agoAI research

45

Necessary or Sufficient? Evaluating LLM Explanations With Behavioural Evidence

New framework tests whether LLM-cited explanation factors are necessary or sufficient, finding weak correlation across Claude, GPT, and Gemini models.

An arXiv paper introduces black-box intervention tests measuring whether factors LLMs cite in their explanations are necessary or sufficient for their outputs in agent oversight workflows. Across eight models from the Claude, GPT, and Gemini families, Spearman correlations between cited rankings and measured influence ranged from 0.349-0.354 (advisor recommendation) to 0.431-0.580 (prompt monitoring). Uncited factors scored above the lowest cited factor in up to 57.6% of advisor responses, showing cited top-three factors do not reliably identify the most influential inputs.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 4, 17:37 UTC · 12d agoAI safety & security1

44

Bag of Tricks or Bag of Myths? Reducing Modeling Complexity with Task Knowledge in Explainable Suicide Risk Assessment

Researchers audit 31 NLP techniques for clinician-annotated suicide risk prediction, finding only 5 of 31 comparisons yield reliable gains.

A study of 1,635 clinician-annotated social media posts ran roughly 300 controlled experiments across 7 methodological families, auditing techniques such as model scaling, synthetic data, ensembling, and threshold tuning under severe class imbalance. The proposed system reformulates risk factor prediction as entailment between posts and codebook definitions, using architecturally diverse ensembles with class-balanced training and deployment-consistent calibration. It scores 0.8203 for risk, 0.7953 for evidence, and 0.7045 macro-F1 for factors, ranking third among 53 teams.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 7, 17:14 UTC · 9d agoAI research

14

Technical Manual for a Toolkit for Measuring Contextual Individuation in Transformer Language Models

An open methodology toolkit measures whether transformer language models contextualize fixed word forms across domains using bridge forms and layer-wise silhouette analysis.

The manual documents an open toolkit built around 'bridge forms' - identical written words recurring across two or more subject domains with a different sense in each - to test whether transformer language models individuate word occurrences by context beyond the embedding layer. It covers declarative specification of bridge forms, Wikipedia corpus acquisition, occurrence localization, layer-wise representation extraction, domain-pairwise silhouette measurement, and visualization, justifying each choice against failure modes such as sense contamination and subword-tokenization misalignment. It is a methodological and implementation reference and reports no empirical results.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 4, 16:38 UTC · 12d agoAI research

14

Convergent Emergence of In-Context Learning Across Modalities

Controlled experiments show few-shot in-context learning emerges across six modalities including language, genomes, images, and proteins, partially supporting a convergence hypothesis.

The paper tests the Convergent Emergence Hypothesis: that few-shot in-context learning, when it emerges, shares a common cross-modality difficulty profile. A controlled framework instantiated the same task suite across six modalities: language, genome, integer sequences, time series, images, and proteins. Paired-mapping ICL emerged in all six modalities, surpassed controlled baselines, and showed correlated per-task effects in five of them, providing partial support for the hypothesis.

Hugging Face daily papers·Sep 11, 20:00 UTC · 5d agoAI research

30

Learning with Covariance Matrices: Principal Component Analysis Meets Learning with Graphs

Theoretical tutorial establishes equivalence between covariance neural networks and PCA, with stability and transferability bounds and brain-age applications.

The paper reviews the theory of coVariance neural networks (VNNs), graph neural networks that operate on covariance matrices as graphs. It derives a conceptual equivalence between VNNs and PCA-based information processing, refined stability bounds under finite-sample covariance perturbations, and transferability characterizations across multiscale datasets. Demonstrated applications include brain age gap estimation for neurodegenerative conditions from neuroimaging data.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 9, 17:28 UTC · 7d agoAI research1

30

DynSHAP: Towards Explainable Dynamic Survival Analysis

DynSHAP extends SHAP explainability to dynamic survival analysis, treating time-feature pairs as Shapley players for longitudinal clinical predictions.

DynSHAP adapts marginal SHAP estimators to dynamic survival analysis by treating time-feature pairs as players in the Shapley game, handling longitudinal irregular inputs and functional survival outputs. Temporal DynSHAP learns linear feature dependencies over time and addresses them with conditional sampling. On synthetic data with ground-truth attributions it recovers temporally dependent features more accurately than marginal estimators, and it produces faithful attributions on two real-world clinical datasets across two DSA architectures.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 11, 16:39 UTC · 5d agoAI research

22

Discovery Foundation Models: Toward Open-Ended Discovery Intelligence

Paper defines Discovery Foundation Models with seven coupled capabilities for open-ended discovery, demonstrated via Zetema and GALILEO systems.

The paper formulates Discovery Foundation Models (DFMs) as general-purpose model systems for open-ended discovery, supporting seven coupled capabilities spanning problem discovery, formulation, representation construction, hypothesis formation, intervention, evidence-grounded revision, and continual improvement. It instantiates the framework with Zetema, which couples explicit research-state dynamics, verification and experimental gating, and cross-task Discovery Skill evolution. The framework is grounded with GALILEO, a real therapeutic-discovery system combining dry-lab reasoning with robotic wet-lab experimentation in a closed physical discovery loop; code is released on GitHub.

Hugging Face daily papers·updated Sep 14, 17:56 UTC · 2d ago·first Sep 13, 20:00 UTC · 3d agoAI research 2 sources

28

Molecular Déjà Vu: Digit-Level Retrieval of Published Values in Frontier Language Models

Audit of 22 frontier models finds widespread verbatim retrieval of published molecular property values, with higher reasoning increasing recall of memorized numbers.

An arXiv audit tests 22 frontier LLMs across 12 molecular regression benchmarks for verbatim retrieval of published values. More than 50% of the LLMs show verbatim retrieval on five datasets, and identical experiments are flagged 89% more often at a high reasoning level than at the lowest one. Suppressing retrieval moves model prediction errors closer together in relative terms, suggesting predictive capability is not determined solely by memorized values.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 4, 17:32 UTC · 12d agoAI research1

42

Transfer Learning for Evolving Domains

TrED formalizes transfer learning for domains whose data availability evolves over time, arguing classical settings are regimes along one trajectory, and remains unsolved.

The paper introduces Transfer Learning for Evolving Domains (TrED), formalizing transfer learning as a trajectory problem where target data and labels are progressively collected. TrED is specified by a data availability process fixed by the environment, a freely chosen learning protocol, and an evaluation criterion scoring the whole trajectory of models. Classical settings like domain generalization, domain adaptation, and multi-domain learning are recovered as regimes within this framework. The authors survey the literature and find most methods are tailored to a single regime, leaving TrED a well-posed open problem.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 11, 16:37 UTC · 5d agoAI research

17

K-Bench: a clinically calibrated benchmark for evaluating large language models in high-risk mental health conversations

Clinician-calibrated K-Bench evaluates 125 LLM configurations on 200 high-risk mental health vignettes, exposing wide variation in suicide and violence risk handling.

K-Bench is a clinician-calibrated, protected benchmark evaluating 125 model configurations from 33 base models across 14 providers on 200 multi-turn vignettes covering suicide, self-harm, domestic violence, substance misuse and no-risk presentations. A frozen GPT-4o judge achieved 94.2% exact agreement with clinician consensus across 6,751 eligible comparisons from 151 clinician-rated transcripts. Leading models combined supportive conversation with combined-risk scores above 95, while risk exploration varied substantially among weaker configurations; therapeutic prompting helped weaker models and elevated reasoning produced no average improvement. A continuously updated public leaderboard is hosted at k-bench.ai with protected test materials.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 14, 16:49 UTC · 2d agoAI safety & security

46

RelateAnything: Real-Time Open-Vocabulary Relation Prediction From Any Inputs

RelateAnything is a 53M-parameter open-vocabulary relation prediction model running at 20 ms/frame, with 2.3-3.5x higher mean recall than comparable open-vocabulary methods.

RelateAnything predicts scored relations between image regions using any predicate vocabulary supplied at inference as text embeddings, with object labels never required as input, so region sources can change without retraining. Training covers 19,103 predicates using positive-unlabeled supervision; the authors release RA-4M (474k images, 4.3M geometrically verified relations over 10,102 free-text predicates) and the OV-SGG-Bench evaluation suite. The 53M-parameter model runs at 20 ms/frame and achieves 2.3-3.5x the mean recall of the strongest comparable open-vocabulary method across cross-dataset and zero-shot benchmarks. Model, corpus, and benchmark are public.

Hugging Face daily papers·Sep 10, 20:00 UTC · 6d agoAI research1

40

Reference-Based Bias Detection in LLMs via Relative Representations of Hidden States

Researchers propose auditing LLM bias via relative hidden-state representations, detecting bias increases with 3-50x less compute than output-level benchmarks.

The paper introduces a reference-based bias auditing method that compares hidden-state representations across model variants, such as before and after fine-tuning, by encoding sentences relative to a fixed anchor set. The resulting Representational Bias Shift (Delta-B) correlates with output-level bias change in 15 of 18 tested settings, reaching |r| = 0.84 under full fine-tuning across WildGuardMix, DecodingTrust, and ToxiGen benchmarks. Thresholding Delta-B detects checkpoints whose bias increased with ROC AUC between 0.65 and 0.99 and beats a SEAT-based baseline, while auditing a model in about three minutes with 3-50x less compute.

Hugging Face daily papers·Sep 8, 20:00 UTC · 8d agoAI research1

42

Structural Jailbreaks Generalize but Do Not Compound: A cross-provider and multilingual study of Involuntary In-Context Learning

Researchers show IICL structural jailbreaks generalize to Google Gemini, lifting attack success to 80-100% on harm and financial benchmarks; non-English prompts attenuate it.

The study red-teams two Google Gemini models with Involuntary In-Context Learning (IICL), a structural jailbreak reframing harmful requests as the final cell of a data-labeling task. IICL lifts attack success from at most 6.7% to 80-90% on HarmBench and 97-100% on financial abuse (FinProof), an order of magnitude above prior results on OpenAI's GPT-5.4. Against a compounding hypothesis, forcing IICL output into Spanish, Hindi, or Arabic attenuates the attack in 11 of 12 conditions, attributed to a 'relevance curse' producing lower-quality harmful content in lower-resource languages. Findings replicate under an independent non-Google judge (Cohen's kappa 0.86 over 377 paired verdicts).

arXiv cs.CR·Sep 8, 07:38 UTC · 8d agoAI safety & security

58

Multi-Vector (Late Interaction) Embedding Models with Sentence Transformers

Hugging Face details building and using multi-vector late-interaction embedding models with Sentence Transformers for retrieval workloads.

Hugging Face published a guide on multi-vector, late-interaction embedding models (ColBERT-style) supported through Sentence Transformers. The post covers how practitioners can build and use these models for retrieval and RAG pipelines. It is a developer tooling and technique write-up, not a security advisory.

Hugging Face Blog·Aug 18, 00:00 UTC · 29d agoAI tools & infra1

42

Large Language Models Develop Belief State Geometry In-Context

Probing six open-source LLMs on HMM-generated data shows belief states are linearly decodable (R² 0.83–0.99), suggesting in-context learning approximates Bayesian prediction.

Researchers prompted six open-source LLMs with data from 40 hidden Markov models selected for non-trivial belief structure and probed residual-stream activations for belief states (posteriors over hidden states). Belief states were linearly decodable with peak R² values of 0.83–0.99 across HMM/LLM combinations, spanning early to late layers. Patching and steering the probe-identified subspace preserved downstream prediction quality while control interventions degraded performance substantially, establishing functional relevance. The results provide representation-level evidence that in-context learning approximates optimal Bayesian prediction over a context-inferred generative model.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 15, 16:17 UTC · 1d agoAI research1

45

When the World Lies: Backdoor Attacks on Latent World Models for Downstream Control

A poisoned world-model checkpoint hijacks downstream controllers without an explicit trigger rule, passing clean-data evaluation while steering 100% of triggered actions.

Researchers show that a released pretrained world-model checkpoint acts as a supply-chain backdoor for downstream control. The poisoned model routes trigger-bearing observations into a chosen latent region and reshapes dynamics so the victim's own Dreamer-style actor training or MPC/CEM planning re-discovers attacker-targeted actions. The attack hijacks 100% of triggered steps in the strongest settings while retaining roughly 75% clean-task success and passing standard clean-data diagnostics. Moderate clean fine-tuning fails to remove the backdoor without substantially degrading clean control.

arXiv cs.CR·Sep 14, 16:01 UTC · 2d agoAI safety & security

40

PhysBrain 1.5: From Vision-Language Models to Physical Foundation Models

PhysBrain 1.5, an 8B physical foundation model, sets open-source state of the art across 28 embodied understanding benchmarks.

The paper presents PhysBrain 1.5, a unified 8B model for understanding physical environments, generating actions, and predicting future states, built from a vision-language model with joint autoregressive next-token prediction over language, end-effector motion, and dense visual targets. Pre-training uses embodied supervision from human interaction videos, followed by supervised fine-tuning on human demonstrations, robot trajectories, and simulated experience. The model averages 72.5 across 28 embodied benchmarks, setting a new open-source state of the art and performing on par with proprietary GPT-6-Astra and Gemini 3.6 Flash, with best open-source results on 14 benchmarks.

Hugging Face daily papers·Sep 13, 20:00 UTC · 3d agoAI research1

45