Search: “treasury-yield”

Decomposition Buys Integrity, Not Yield

Study of 600 production deep-research traces finds agent-tree decomposition loses findings at rate N^(1-δ); flat architectures maximize yield.

The paper models multi-agent decomposition as a tree where an agent holding b items retains each with probability r(b); with r(b)=1/b every tree delivers exactly one finding regardless of shape. Analysis of 600 production deep-research traces estimates delta=0.34 retention decay, and 1,012 annotated traces show one brief in sixteen goes off-target per tier, giving an alignment penalty of 0.536. Depth still cuts root context exposure from N to N^(1/k) and is cheaper at scale, with a hazard model over 743,819 production tool calls showing delegation is an opening move rather than a response to filling context.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 15, 17:04 UTC · 22h agoAI research

A Hybrid LSTM-XGBoost Framework for Multi-Horizon Stock Return Prediction Across Diversified Equity Portfolios

Hybrid LSTM-XGBoost model predicts multi-horizon returns for 14 US equities, cutting 30-day RMSE to about one-third of a standalone LSTM baseline.

The paper combines a two-layer LSTM (64 hidden units) processing 60-day windows of five market features with an XGBoost regressor over a 78-dimensional hybrid feature vector including 14 technical indicators. It is trained on pooled data for 14 US equities across six sectors using chronological splits and per-stock MinMaxScaling to prevent look-ahead bias, and evaluated at 30, 90, 252, and 365 trading-day horizons. The hybrid achieves test RMSE of 0.0949 at 30 days, roughly one-third of the standalone LSTM, while 97.6% directional accuracy at 365 days largely tracks the base rate of positive returns.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 11, 17:51 UTC · 4d agoAI research

Evaluating Time-Series Foundation Models and Multimodal Dietary Context for CGM Forecasting

Study finds zero-shot time-series foundation models underperform on CGM forecasting; fine-tuned Chronos-Bolt cuts RMSE up to 18.4% and dietary context adds signal.

The paper evaluates time-series foundation models for continuous glucose monitoring forecasting across eight public datasets covering Type 1 diabetes, Type 2 diabetes, and non-diabetes populations. Under a unified protocol, zero-shot foundation models did not consistently outperform baselines like Elastic Net and PatchTST, but lightweight fine-tuning did, with fine-tuned Chronos-Bolt reducing RMSE by 6.5%-18.4% in the T1D cohort and 8.6%-18.2% in the non-diabetes/T2D cohort. A residual-based fusion framework adding dietary context from CGMacros reduced overall RMSE by about 3% and postprandial RMSE by about 15% versus CGM-only baselines.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 10, 17:43 UTC · 5d agoAI research

Cadence: Error-Bounded Lossy Compression of Demand Time Series with a Time-Series Foundation Model

Cadence pairs Google's 330M-parameter TimesFM-3 foundation model with adaptive arithmetic coding, gaining 13-28% on 2026 demand series over classical predictors.

Cadence is an error-bounded lossy compressor for numeric time series combining the 330M-parameter Google TimesFM-3 foundation model with an adaptive arithmetic coder, guaranteeing a per-sample error bound. On 49 EIA-930 balancing-authority demand series from 2026 it gains 13.3% over the best of six classical predictors and 28.3% on 50 MTA ridership series, winning all 297 series-tolerance pairs with a 21.4% median gain. The paper also reports negative results, including that foundation models add negligible value for lossless coding and that PyTorch predictions are not bit-identical across batch sizes.

Hugging Face daily papers·Sep 4, 20:00 UTC · 11d agoAI research1

A Princeton Researcher Proposes Recurrent Looped Transformer (RLT) that Carries Decoder State across Every Token, Fixing 96 Blocks per Token with Unbounded Temporal Depth

Princeton researcher Yifan Zhang proposes Recurrent Looped Transformer, carrying full decoder state across every token for unbounded temporal depth.

Yifan Zhang's technical report defines the Recurrent Looped Transformer (RLT), pairing a causal encoder with a recurrent decoder whose final output and layerwise sliding-window attention cache carry into every subsequent token with no prompt-response boundary reset. The reference configuration ties 48 encoder and 48 decoder layers, executing 96 logical blocks per token while the state path grows to 48t blocks after t tokens at fixed per-token compute. The report details RL replay contracts that rebuild all states under current parameters and exact prefix snapshots for multi-turn serving, but explicitly reports no measured efficiency, reasoning quality, or scaling results.

MarkTechPost·Sep 13, 17:02 UTC · 2d agoAI research1

TART: A Modular Tool for Technique-Aware Audio-to-Tablature Guitar Transcription

TART pipeline transcribes guitar audio to tablature with fingering and technique labels, outperforming prior baselines by up to 8.5 Tab F1 points.

TART is a modular four-stage pipeline for audio-to-tablature guitar transcription, combining an audio-to-MIDI transcription model, an expressive technique classifier, an audio-conditioned T5 encoder-decoder for string-fret assignment, and an automated tablature generator. In zero-shot evaluation on GuitarSet, EGDB, and two noisy augmented benchmarks, it averages 81.35% audio-to-MIDI F50 (+6.67 over the best baseline), 71.8% string-fret Tab F1 (+8.5), and 54.08% end-to-end Tab F1. The authors state it is the first framework to generate tablature with both fingering and expressive technique annotations directly from guitar audio.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 10, 17:55 UTC · 5d agoAI research2

Function Name Is All You Need to Detect Blockchain Application Attacks

TxLucent detects blockchain dApp attacks from transaction function-name sequences using a transformer, achieving 1.56% false negatives without source code.

Researchers propose TxLucent, which maps transaction call traces to function name sequences and uses a transformer to detect blockchain application attacks without source code or handcrafted rules. Evaluated on 424 real-world incidents with 14,611 attack transactions, it achieves a 1.56% false negative rate and an estimated 0.0017% false positive rate across over 500 million Ethereum transactions. Average analysis time of 24.90 milliseconds supports real-time detection on popular blockchains.

arXiv cs.CR·Sep 11, 00:43 UTC · 5d agoResearch1

Learning Length-Extrapolatable Recurrent Models

Researchers propose Credit Stabilization through Time, a training method letting recurrent models extrapolate up to 128x their training length.

The paper argues that length extrapolation failure in BPTT-trained recurrent models is better explained through state credit, the signal through which future losses reach earlier recurrent states. It introduces Credit Stabilization through Time (CST), which locally rescales the state-credit signal during backpropagation without rotating the corrected component or changing forward computation. Controlled experiments show improved performance beyond the training horizon, with gains at up to 128x the training length.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 8, 17:59 UTC · 7d agoAI research1

RTK reports token savings, but our cost benchmarks disagree

Quesma's $1,500 benchmark found RTK cuts reported token output but changes Claude Code and DeepSeek coding costs by only about 5% on Terminal-Bench 2.1.

Quesma benchmarked RTK (Rust Token Killer), a popular tool with 79k GitHub stars that filters terminal output for AI coding agents, whose README claims up to 90% output reduction. Across 1,740 Terminal-Bench 2.1 attempts running Claude Code with Fable 5.0 and OpenCode with DeepSeek V4 Pro 0813, total costs moved only -5% for Fable and +5% for DeepSeek, with pass rates dropping 1-2%. RTK's own rtk gain metric reported 349.2 million tokens saved (an 89% reduction) across 445 DeepSeek attempts, but this did not correlate with actual cost savings, and cached terminal-output reads cost as little as 1/10 to 1/30 of regular input tokens. A bug in rtk find 0.45.0 caused one agent to loop with 339 consecutive errors, costing roughly 9x the baseline attempt, though the task still passed.

Hacker News · security·updated Sep 11, 22:01 UTC · 4d ago·first Sep 11, 11:15 UTC · 5d agoAI tools & infra 2 sourcesHN 28↑ · 10 comments1

Learning Sparse Decision Trees via Transformer Variational Auto-Encoders

TREVIS uses a Tree Transformer VAE latent space to learn decision trees matching near-optimal predictive performance while improving structural sparsity.

TREVIS learns decision trees optimized for complex objectives by exploring the latent space of a Tree Transformer Variational Auto-Encoder (TTVAE). Mapping trees to continuous latent representations replaces the discrete search space with a continuous one, enabling gradient-based optimization through a differentiable surrogate model. Experiments show TREVIS matches the predictive performance of near-optimal algorithms while improving structural sparsity, targeting high-stakes contexts needing transparent decision logic.

Hugging Face daily papers·Aug 31, 20:00 UTC · 15d agoAI research

T1: Terminal Agent Reinforcement Learning for Long-Horizon Tasks

T1, a 122B MoE terminal agent trained with reinforcement learning, reaches 64.0% on Terminal-Bench 2.1, surpassing GPT-5.4 and GLM-5.1 on long-horizon tasks.

T1 is a 122B mixture-of-experts model trained with reinforcement learning to operate a real shell in a cloud sandbox for up to 300+ tool-call turns per task, rewarded by executing each task's own verifier. The recipe combines aggressive warm starts, dense process rewards, TITO construction, and rollout routing replay, cutting the training-to-inference log-probability difference from 0.021 to 0.013 with zero token drift. Training used an out-of-distribution corpus disjoint from Terminal-Bench 2.1. Post-training raised the base model from 43.8% to 64.0% resolved on Terminal-Bench 2.1 and 27.9% on Long-Horizon Terminal Bench.

Hugging Face daily papers·Sep 9, 20:00 UTC · 6d agoAI research1

Lessons from the hacks

The recent run of cyberattacks by in-development frontier models has got me thinking a lot about how our current incentive systems are not well suited for such fast technological transitions. The two primary power structures here are the rapidly growing technology companies and the federal government. The companies are incentivized to grow, so they can keep growing and keep scaling – in what is…

Interconnects·Aug 9, 14:57 UTC · Aug 9, 2026AI research

Opaque recurrence, and other AI terms that you should probably know

TechCrunch updates its plain-English glossary defining common AI terms from AGI and agents to chain-of-thought reasoning.

TechCrunch maintains a regularly updated glossary of AI terminology, defining terms such as AGI, AI agents, API endpoints, chain of thought, coding agents, compute, deep learning, and diffusion. It highlights 'opaque recurrence', the reasoning technique in OpenAI's new Astra model that has drawn attention from AI safety researchers. The piece is an educational living document rather than new research or a product announcement.

TechCrunch · AI·Sep 7, 19:24 UTC · 8d agoAI industry

Heterogeneous Cross-Chain Transaction Tracing for Solana Bridges via Candidate-Set Selective Decision

SolTracer traces cross-chain transactions onto Solana bridges, improving open-world association F1 by 20.16% over the strongest baseline for illicit-fund tracing.

The paper formalizes four Solana-bound cross-chain transaction modes and proposes SolTracer, which maps heterogeneous execution semantics into a unified event space and uses candidate-set selective decision-making with abstention when valid targets are absent. In the challenging open-world setting with a 50% TA ratio, SolTracer improves F1 by 20.16% over the strongest baseline. An empirical study of real-world transfers examines count-value divergence across bridge mechanisms, cross-asset shifts, and decoupling between on-chain settlement and explorer visibility.

arXiv cs.CR·Sep 10, 11:43 UTC · 6d agoResearch

Technical Manual for a Toolkit for Measuring Contextual Individuation in Transformer Language Models

An open methodology toolkit measures whether transformer language models contextualize fixed word forms across domains using bridge forms and layer-wise silhouette analysis.

The manual documents an open toolkit built around 'bridge forms' - identical written words recurring across two or more subject domains with a different sense in each - to test whether transformer language models individuate word occurrences by context beyond the embedding layer. It covers declarative specification of bridge forms, Wikipedia corpus acquisition, occurrence localization, layer-wise representation extraction, domain-pairwise silhouette measurement, and visualization, justifying each choice against failure modes such as sense contamination and subword-tokenization misalignment. It is a methodological and implementation reference and reports no empirical results.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 4, 16:38 UTC · 11d agoAI research

Transfer Learning for Evolving Domains

TrED formalizes transfer learning for domains whose data availability evolves over time, arguing classical settings are regimes along one trajectory, and remains unsolved.

The paper introduces Transfer Learning for Evolving Domains (TrED), formalizing transfer learning as a trajectory problem where target data and labels are progressively collected. TrED is specified by a data availability process fixed by the environment, a freely chosen learning protocol, and an evaluation criterion scoring the whole trajectory of models. Classical settings like domain generalization, domain adaptation, and multi-domain learning are recovered as regimes within this framework. The authors survey the literature and find most methods are tailored to a single regime, leaving TrED a well-posed open problem.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 11, 16:37 UTC · 4d agoAI research

What LLM Trading Agents Actually Do in Production: A Six-Month, Population-Scale Record from Two Fleets

Six-month record of 7.5M LLM trading agent invocations shows volatility-blind sizing, minimal upside capture, and no directional edge across two fleets.

The study records autonomous LLM trading agents in production across DX Terminal Pro (3,505 user-funded vaults trading real ETH in Base memecoin markets) and the DXAP fleet (500-599 agents on Hyperliquid perpetuals), spanning roughly six months, 7.5M single-model invocations and about 300K onchain actions. A risk slider explains leverage (+0.425 per level), median leverage is 5.0x in every volatility sextile, and one posture-slider cell holds 62% of liquidations. Agents capture little upside: 43.2% of positions saw +300 bps favorable excursion within 24h yet 49.3% of those closed negative, while the DXAP fleet trails a matched retail benchmark (41% vs 50% roundtrip win rate). A paired-replay league of frontier models finds decision quality statistically indistinguishable at this horizon.

Hugging Face daily papers·Sep 3, 20:00 UTC · 12d agoAI research

Molecular Déjà Vu: Digit-Level Retrieval of Published Values in Frontier Language Models

Audit of 22 frontier models finds widespread verbatim retrieval of published molecular property values, with higher reasoning increasing recall of memorized numbers.

An arXiv audit tests 22 frontier LLMs across 12 molecular regression benchmarks for verbatim retrieval of published values. More than 50% of the LLMs show verbatim retrieval on five datasets, and identical experiments are flagged 89% more often at a high reasoning level than at the lowest one. Suppressing retrieval moves model prediction errors closer together in relative terms, suggesting predictive capability is not determined solely by memorized values.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 4, 17:32 UTC · 11d agoAI research1

Kaininja: Extending Native 3D Generators to the Part Level

KaiNinja extends TRELLIS.2 native 3D generation to part-level assets via a dual-volume O-Voxel representation, cutting whole-object Chamfer distance by 40%.

KaiNinja extends the TRELLIS.2 native 3D generator to produce part-level assets instead of one fused mesh, enabling downstream editing, rigging, and simulation. A dual-volume form of the O-Voxel representation solves the problem that a single volume cannot represent interfaces where two parts touch. The model needs no segmentation network, is partly trained on LLM-agent-authored part data, lowers whole-object Chamfer distance by 40%, and raises strict part F-score by 16% versus other part-generation pipelines.

Hugging Face daily papers·Sep 13, 20:00 UTC · 2d agoAI research

Financial Stability Board Sounds the Alarm Over Frontier AI Risks

The Financial Stability Board warned G20 banking leaders that frontier AI adoption poses growing cyber and financial stability risks.

The Financial Stability Board (FSB) issued a warning to G20 banking leaders about cyber and financial-stability risks stemming from frontier AI. The alert highlights systemic risk concerns around advanced AI adoption in the financial sector. No specific incidents or regulatory actions were announced.

Infosecurity Magazine·Sep 1, 09:20 UTC · 15d agoAI policy

From ‘High/Medium/Low’ to Dollars: Making Cyber Risk Legible to Your CFO

Cyble argues security teams should express cyber risk in financial terms for CFOs instead of high/medium/low ratings, citing its 2025 threat forecast results.

Cyble published guidance on cyber risk quantification, arguing qualitative high/medium/low ratings fail to convey financial exposure to executives. The piece notes that over 80% of its 2025 threat predictions, including AI-driven ransomware and supply-chain attacks, materialized as anticipated.

Cyble·Aug 25, 09:45 UTC · 22d agoIndustry

Meme Coin Factories: Uncovering Large-Scale Manipulations on pump.fun

Large-scale pump.fun study of 15 million meme coins identifies five manipulation classes including wash trading and a Market-Manipulation-as-a-Service ecosystem.

Researchers analyzed all 15 million coins launched on pump.fun over the last two years plus large random samples of transaction data, identifying five manipulation classes: wash trading, creator address obfuscation, coordinated sells, copycat coins, and social media manipulation. Strategic actors bypass the platform interface and implement strategies in a highly automated, low-latency way by interacting directly with the blockchain. The study also uncovers Market-Manipulation-as-a-Service (MMaaS) third-party tools that let non-technical users run these manipulations, and proposes mitigations for traders, pump.fun, and regulators.

arXiv cs.CR·Sep 9, 14:35 UTC · 7d agoResearch

Generative Marketing Mix Modeling: A Causal Inference Framework Linking GEO and GEM to Business Impact

Paper proposes Generative Marketing Mix Modeling to causally estimate Generative Engine Optimization and Marketing effects on business outcomes.

The authors develop GMMM, a causal inference framework for measuring how often users see and notice a firm's name in generated answers, which standard marketing data ignore. For GEO it combines repeated generated answers with question counts, shares of generative-system usage and notice probabilities; for GEM it uses sponsored placement records with notice probabilities. The framework compares expected business responses under alternative treatment sequences, establishes identification conditions, and is evaluated on simulated product-recommendation answers in English and Japanese.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 10, 17:57 UTC · 5d agoAI research

You've Got a BUD in Me: Authenticated Reads from Per-Block Write Logs

Researchers propose BUD, per-block write-log digests enabling blockchain validators to serve historical membership and exclusion proofs far cheaper than state-wide tries.

The paper introduces Block Update Digests (BUD), which authenticate each block's write log with predecessor pointers, plus a SuperBUD and exponential hierarchy to turn long unchanged intervals into short proofs. Soundness against adversarial provers and up to f Byzantine validators is proven under archive, attestation, and committee evidence assumptions. Benchmarks show a 50x state-size increase raises the base-BUD path only 1.24x versus 3.1x for in-memory and 69.5x for disk-backed Merkle Patricia tries, with read payloads below 800 bytes and p99 warm verification at 146 microseconds.

arXiv cs.CR·Sep 10, 08:46 UTC · 6d agoResearch

Operational Roles of QRNG-Derived Quantum Entropy in Bitcoin Proof-of-Work Architectures

arXiv study finds quantum-random entropy adds no Bitcoin PoW success advantage but helps assurance in fault and provenance scenarios.

The paper shows replacing classical entropy with QRNG output does not change honest Bitcoin proof-of-work success probability when candidate headers remain distinct. It introduces a reproducible benchmark measuring an entropy-efficiency factor and a reboot-diversity index, finding QRNG value only in assurance-oriented scenarios involving correlated restart faults, namespace reuse, and entropy provenance. Validation is simulation-based, with hardware-in-the-loop testing identified as future work.

arXiv cs.CR·Sep 4, 12:47 UTC · 12d agoResearch

Show HN: Sunk Cost – How long until a local LLM rig pays for itself?

Show HN tool 'Sunk Cost' calculates when a local LLM rig breaks even versus falling API prices, factoring electricity cost and inference speed.

A Hacker News Show HN project called Sunk Cost models the payback period of buying local LLM hardware instead of paying API prices. Users can adjust assumptions like electricity cost ($/kWh) and API speed (tokens/second), and the model assumes API prices keep falling. Where local speed is unmeasured, it is estimated from memory bandwidth divided by bytes read per token, and labelled as an estimate.

Hacker News · security·Sep 15, 01:37 UTC · 1d agoAI tools & infraHN 30↑ · 31 comments

A Chosen Future Can Still Be Rewritten: Causal Writability in Video Models

Study shows video models often learn correct physics but fail to use it; low-dimensional 'causal writability' edits can restore correct motion.

The paper demonstrates 'causal writability' in video generation models: physically correct motion remains available inside the model even when the model outputs incorrect motion. In a red/blue mass oscillation setup, a low-dimensional edit predicted from simple physical variables restores correct fast motion, with a sharp depth boundary marking commitment. Early causal writability predicts which training errors later get corrected, and both writability and closure reproduce in a pretrained 1.3B video model.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 14, 17:58 UTC · 1d agoAI research

IBM releases SOTA Granite Time Series PatchTST-FM-r2 model with commercial-friendly license

IBM released Granite Time Series PatchTST-FM-r2, a claimed state-of-the-art time series foundation model under a commercial-friendly license.

IBM Research announced the release of Granite Time Series PatchTST-FM-r2, published via the Hugging Face blog. The model is presented as state-of-the-art for time-series forecasting and is offered under a license permitting commercial use. No benchmark numbers or model size details were provided in the available text.

Hugging Face Blog·Sep 9, 15:36 UTC · 7d agoModel release

US Finance Under Phishing Pressure: What the SOC Data Reveals?

ANY.RUN SOC telemetry shows escalating phishing campaigns against US finance, including Vercel-hosted RMM attacks abusing legitimate services.

ANY.RUN analyzed SOC telemetry data on phishing targeting the US financial sector, concluding that the scale and security impact should not be understated. The analysis highlights modern campaigns such as Vercel-hosted attacks that deliver remote monitoring and management (RMM) tools. It notes that attackers increasingly abuse legitimate services and everyday workflow tools to deliver phishing, making detection harder for SOC teams.

ANY.RUN·Aug 26, 09:17 UTC · 21d agoPhishing & fraud in the wild

X-AuT: Progressive Audio-Encoder Compression for Speech LLMs with Cross-Scale Distillation

XPeng AI's X-AuT prunes speech LLM audio encoders, cutting Qwen3-ASR-0.6B error from 5.61% to 5.27% with fewer parameters.

X-AuT is a progressive compression framework for speech LLM audio encoders that selects layer combinations via short behavioral probes and restores pruned models using cross-scale distillation and LoRA finetuning while keeping the language-model backbone frozen. Compressing Qwen3-ASR-0.6B from 18 to 16 audio-encoder layers lowered macro-average error from 5.61% to 5.27% on ten Chinese-English benchmarks. A 14-layer model reached 5.75% error with 20.7% fewer audio-tower parameters, and progressive pruning outperformed direct pruning (5.75% vs 6.73%).

Hugging Face daily papers·Sep 9, 20:00 UTC · 6d agoAI research