AlphaBet uses reinforcement learning to train LLM event-forecasting agents
On GLM-4.5-Air, Brier score fell from 0.731 to 0.626 on Forecast-Dojo and from 0.612 to 0.528 on FutureX.
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Stories tagged #brier-score
Competence-Gated Pooling of Language Models and Priors for Event Forecasting
Paper proposes a competence gate pooling language model forecasts with external priors, improving Brier score from 0.0771 to 0.0732 across 2,357 binary questions.