Conformal prediction improves wind forecasts
Regime-specific calibration fixes high-wind undercoverage while narrowing bands.
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Stories tagged #conformal-prediction
Conformal prediction cannot guarantee coverage at performative equilibrium for L >=1
Under total-variation L-sensitivity no finite-sample procedure guarantees both equilibrium-valid coverage and nontrivial prediction sets when L >=1.
Conformal Prediction Sets Quantify Information Gain: A Theoretical Perspective
Paper shows conformal prediction set-size reduction tracks information gain and relates to Shannon mutual information.
Reinforcement Learning with Conformal Action Sets: An Application to Sequential Recommendation
RLCP adapts sequential-recommendation action sets with calibrated pruning, lifting catalog diversity to 1.11–5.21× the best baselines.
CLIFT: Conformal Self-Verification for Web Agent Training and Test-Time Scaling
CLIFT turns judge feedback into conformal self-verification for web-agent training and judge-free test-time trajectory selection.
Watermarking: from Impossibility to Auditable Compliance
Researchers propose auditable text-watermark checks that operationalize EU AI Act Article 50 without claiming universal robustness.
CLIFT: Conformal Self-Verification for Web Agent Training and Test-Time Scaling
CLIFT turns judge feedback into reusable rewards and judge-free test-time selection for web agents.
ReCIRC: Rectified Conformal Risk Control
ReCIRC reparameterizes conformal risk control so thresholds target conditional risk while keeping finite-sample marginal guarantees.
Trust Guided Decision Transformer
Trust Guided Decision Transformer filters drifted context with prediction error before applying value guidance.
Two Conformal Constructions for Adaptive Within-Document AI-Text Screening
Two conformal constructions bound false alerts during adaptive within-document screening for AI-generated text.
Conformalized Quantile Regression and Minimax Limits of Fixed-Score Calibration under Known Covariate Shift
Paper derives nonasymptotic error bounds for split conformalized quantile regression under known covariate shift.
Conformal Privacy Auditing: Calibrated Re-identification Attacks with Statistical Guarantees
Conformal Privacy Auditing certifies per-document re-identification risk against LLM attackers with statistical coverage guarantees.
ENCP: Episode-Normalized Conformal Prediction for Vision-and-Language Navigation
ENCP calibrates conformal prediction per navigation episode, giving step-level coverage guarantees for vision-language navigation agents despite within-episode dependence.
Observational Indistinguishability and Integrity Blind Regions in Hybrid Quantum-Classical Workflows
Framework formalizes integrity blind regions in hybrid quantum-classical workflows, validated across 3,600 label interventions with conformal detection rules.
Conformal Prediction for Offensive Security
Researchers apply conformal prediction to offensive security, presenting initial findings on privacy-attacking machine learning and network traffic analysis.
Unifying Conformal Language Tasks with In-Context Ensembles
Researchers propose Conformal Relevance, which builds conformal score functions via in-context example curation and ensembling to improve conciseness across seven NLP tasks.