Search: “risk-quantification”

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Bag of Tricks or Bag of Myths? Reducing Modeling Complexity with Task Knowledge in Explainable Suicide Risk Assessment

Researchers audit 31 NLP techniques for clinician-annotated suicide risk prediction, finding only 5 of 31 comparisons yield reliable gains.

A study of 1,635 clinician-annotated social media posts ran roughly 300 controlled experiments across 7 methodological families, auditing techniques such as model scaling, synthetic data, ensembling, and threshold tuning under severe class imbalance. The proposed system reformulates risk factor prediction as entailment between posts and codebook definitions, using architecturally diverse ensembles with class-balanced training and deployment-consistent calibration. It scores 0.8203 for risk, 0.7953 for evidence, and 0.7045 macro-F1 for factors, ranking third among 53 teams.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 7, 17:14 UTC · 8d agoAI research

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Toward an Empirical Probabilistic Risk Manifestation Model of Organizational Cybersecurity in SMEs

Empirical study of 22 SME security assessments builds a probabilistic risk model and shows assessments can be cut 24-45% while retaining most critical findings.

Researchers analyzed 281 validated security findings from 22 real-world SME cybersecurity assessments conducted over two years via a pro bono university clinic. They derived an empirical Risk Manifestation Model linking eight organizational security functions to two exposure conditions, five attack mechanisms, and six outcome categories, using probability propagation to identify dominant risk pathways. The dominant pathway runs from asset exposure to credential compromise to unauthorized access, stable under leave-one-organization-out analysis. Retaining six functions reduces assessment burden by 24% while preserving 97% of critical findings; five functions cut burden 45% while preserving 89% of critical findings.

arXiv cs.CR·Sep 14, 01:15 UTC · 2d agoResearch

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From ‘High/Medium/Low’ to Dollars: Making Cyber Risk Legible to Your CFO

Cyble argues security teams should express cyber risk in financial terms for CFOs instead of high/medium/low ratings, citing its 2025 threat forecast results.

Cyble published guidance on cyber risk quantification, arguing qualitative high/medium/low ratings fail to convey financial exposure to executives. The piece notes that over 80% of its 2025 threat predictions, including AI-driven ransomware and supply-chain attacks, materialized as anticipated.

Cyble·Aug 25, 09:45 UTC · 21d agoIndustry

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General Quantification of Covariate and Concept Shifts

Paper proposes γ*-concept shifts via entropic optimal transport, deriving estimable generalization bounds unifying covariate and concept shift under distribution shift.

The authors show existing definitions of concept shift break when source and target supports mismatch and propose γ*-concept shifts grounded in entropic optimal transport. They derive a general error bound covering broad loss functions, label spaces and stochastic labeling, plus estimators with concentration guarantees. The resulting DataShifts algorithm quantifies distribution shifts and estimates the error bound in most applications, addressing learning bounds that were previously non-estimable from samples.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 10, 17:57 UTC · 5d agoAI research1

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Reference-Based Bias Detection in LLMs via Relative Representations of Hidden States

Researchers propose auditing LLM bias via relative hidden-state representations, detecting bias increases with 3-50x less compute than output-level benchmarks.

The paper introduces a reference-based bias auditing method that compares hidden-state representations across model variants, such as before and after fine-tuning, by encoding sentences relative to a fixed anchor set. The resulting Representational Bias Shift (Delta-B) correlates with output-level bias change in 15 of 18 tested settings, reaching |r| = 0.84 under full fine-tuning across WildGuardMix, DecodingTrust, and ToxiGen benchmarks. Thresholding Delta-B detects checkpoints whose bias increased with ROC AUC between 0.65 and 0.99 and beats a SEAT-based baseline, while auditing a model in about three minutes with 3-50x less compute.

Hugging Face daily papers·Sep 8, 20:00 UTC · 7d agoAI research

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K-Bench: a clinically calibrated benchmark for evaluating large language models in high-risk mental health conversations

Clinician-calibrated K-Bench evaluates 125 LLM configurations on 200 high-risk mental health vignettes, exposing wide variation in suicide and violence risk handling.

K-Bench is a clinician-calibrated, protected benchmark evaluating 125 model configurations from 33 base models across 14 providers on 200 multi-turn vignettes covering suicide, self-harm, domestic violence, substance misuse and no-risk presentations. A frozen GPT-4o judge achieved 94.2% exact agreement with clinician consensus across 6,751 eligible comparisons from 151 clinician-rated transcripts. Leading models combined supportive conversation with combined-risk scores above 95, while risk exploration varied substantially among weaker configurations; therapeutic prompting helped weaker models and elevated reasoning produced no average improvement. A continuously updated public leaderboard is hosted at k-bench.ai with protected test materials.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 14, 16:49 UTC · 1d agoAI safety & security

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AI vulnerability discovery scores the highest impact of 20 emerging risks

Gartner survey of 316 organizations ranks AI-driven vulnerability discovery as the top emerging risk, with tangible impact expected within roughly two years.

Gartner's quarterly survey had 316 risk managers, auditors, and senior executives rank 20 emerging threats in April and May, with AI discovery of cyber vulnerabilities ranked first, up from outside the top five the prior quarter. Respondents scored the impact time frame at 1.92 on a scale where 1 means under a year and 2 means one to two years, and 76% placed it in their top ten, ranking first in all four regions and highest among banking and financial respondents at 78%. The analysis notes AI now finds unknown flaws at volumes patching teams cannot absorb and that exploit development time has collapsed, citing defensive efforts like Anthropic's Project Glasswing and OpenAI's Daybreak. Gartner recommends recalibrating cyber risk impact, revisiting risk appetite, demanding stronger vendor security validation, and moving toward faster automated remediation.

Help Net Security·Aug 26, 00:00 UTC · 21d agoIndustry

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DynSHAP: Towards Explainable Dynamic Survival Analysis

DynSHAP extends SHAP explainability to dynamic survival analysis, treating time-feature pairs as Shapley players for longitudinal clinical predictions.

DynSHAP adapts marginal SHAP estimators to dynamic survival analysis by treating time-feature pairs as players in the Shapley game, handling longitudinal irregular inputs and functional survival outputs. Temporal DynSHAP learns linear feature dependencies over time and addresses them with conditional sampling. On synthetic data with ground-truth attributions it recovers temporally dependent features more accurately than marginal estimators, and it produces faithful attributions on two real-world clinical datasets across two DSA architectures.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 11, 16:39 UTC · 4d agoAI research

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Attention Quantization for Tabular Foundation Models

FP8 quantization of attention queries, keys, and values speeds tabular foundation model inference up to 1.7x with no accuracy loss.

The paper develops an FP8 quantization strategy targeting attention calculations (queries, keys, values) in tabular foundation models, arguing attention matters more than weight or KV cache quantization given their differing size and serving patterns versus LLMs. Aligning quantization error between test rows and training rows proves crucial, since misalignment causes drastic accuracy drops. A Triton kernel using explicit FP8 matrix multiplication achieves up to 1.7x speedup over regular 16-bit kernels, with no relevant accuracy loss on TabPFN-v3 and TabICLv2 across TabArena and BeyondArena benchmarks.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 11, 16:31 UTC · 4d agoAI research1

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Introducing Continuous Vulnerability Assessment: Real-Time Defense for the AI Threat Era

Wiz launched Continuous Vulnerability Assessment (CVA), alerting customers to exposure against newly published vulnerabilities in real time.

Wiz introduced Continuous Vulnerability Assessment, a capability that detects exposure to newly published vulnerabilities the moment they are disclosed. The company positions CVA as real-time defense for the AI threat era, reducing the window between disclosure and remediation decisions. The item is a vendor product announcement with no incident details.

Wiz Blog·Sep 1, 10:54 UTC · 14d agoTools

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Quantile-based Loss Filtering for Outlier-Robust Stochastic Gradient Descent

Quantile-k-Loss SGD filters corrupted component losses by quantile sampling, proving linear convergence while outperforming standard and min-k-loss SGD.

The paper proposes Quantile-k-Loss SGD (Q(k)L-SGD), a loss-filtering framework for finite-sum optimization with corrupted components that samples k losses per iteration and updates using an index from the lower empirical q-quantile. The authors prove linear convergence under standard convexity, requiring sample size to scale with the number of corruptions, plus a complementary small-sample probabilistic analysis. Experiments on polynomial regression, regularized logistic regression, and hinge loss show intermediate quantiles often outperform both standard SGD and min-k-loss SGD.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 11, 16:38 UTC · 4d agoAI research

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A Ranking Approach for Measuring Calibration

Researchers propose rankECE, a ranking-based calibration error measure with theoretical guarantees that outperforms binned ECE approximations.

The paper introduces rankECE, an alternative to Expected Calibration Error (ECE) that measures miscalibration by comparing points with neighboring predicted-probability values. It addresses the impossibility of estimating ECE with guaranteed accuracy in assumption-free settings. Theoretical guarantees and empirical results establish rankECE as a better proxy for ECE than the binned approximations most commonly used in practice.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 11, 17:34 UTC · 4d agoAI research1

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Target leakage, not model class, explains reported accuracy in survey-based cardiovascular screening: a leakage-tiered audit of glass-box and tabular foundation models

Audits of 10 classifiers on BRFSS show target leakage, not model class, drives the reported 0.89 AUROC in survey-based cardiovascular screening.

The study benchmarks ten model classes, including glass-box and tabular foundation models, for prevalent myocardial infarction on 442,067 respondents of the 2022 BRFSS across five feature tiers of decreasing leakage risk. Removing two post-diagnostic features costs every model 0.049-0.051 AUROC and collapses performance into a 0.0045-wide band, and the explainable boosting machine matches all alternatives within 0.005 while scoring roughly 104x faster than the strongest foundation model. Frozen models transport within 0.002 AUROC to 2023 data; the authors conclude evaluation practice and feature sets, not model capacity, are the binding constraint.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 10, 17:29 UTC · 5d agoAI research1

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TIER: Threat Implicitness Benchmark for Evaluating LLM Safety Behaviors

TIER benchmark shows LLM safety behaviors shift gradually across threat implicitness levels, with jailbreaks exposing the largest robustness gaps.

The TIER benchmark evaluates LLM safety behaviors across four risk domains and four threat levels, from explicit harmful requests to sophisticated jailbreaks, using a six-label behavior scale and two independent LLM judges. Experiments on six open-weight LLMs show safety behaviors evolve gradually across threat levels rather than flipping from refusal to compliance. Models with similar Attack Success Rates can exhibit distinct response distributions, arguing for behavior-aware safety evaluation.

arXiv cs.CR·Sep 4, 13:13 UTC · 11d agoAI safety & security

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Quantum Feature Engineering for Credit Default Prediction: When and Why IQP Circuits Help Linear Classifiers

Quantum IQP circuit features lift logistic-regression credit-default F1 from 0.462 to 0.517, beating Kernel PCA at an equal feature budget.

Using the UCI Default of Credit Card Clients dataset and five-fold cross-validation, an 8-qubit IQP circuit adds 16 features that raise Logistic Regression F1 from 0.462 to 0.517 (+0.055, p < 0.0001). Kernel PCA, the best classical non-linear alternative, reaches only 0.493 at the same feature count, with the gap surviving Benjamini-Hochberg correction across 12 tests (p = 0.00007). Only the linear classifier benefits, pointing to a linear-expressivity mechanism. Feature selection matters: Random Forest importance-guided selection reaches F1 = 0.523 while maximally uncorrelated features drop to 0.496.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 9, 17:41 UTC · 6d agoAI research

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Securing Data in the AI era

Wiz published guidance arguing AI adoption reshapes data risk, urging teams to identify what data is connected to AI services and exposed.

Wiz published a viewpoint on how AI adoption changes the context of data risk. The post argues that understanding what data is connected to AI systems, what is exposed, and why is now critical for managing that risk. No specific incident, vulnerability, or product release is described in the available text.

Wiz Blog·Aug 14, 12:19 UTC · Aug 14, 2026Industry

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From Reweighting to Rewriting: Unlocking the Intervention Effects of Influential Samples in Training Data Attribution

Study shows rewriting responses of influence-selected training examples shifts LLM behavior more strongly than reweighting the same samples.

The paper examines training data attribution, arguing that influence functions identify high-leverage examples whose value goes unrealized under conventional weight-based reweighting interventions. It introduces influence-guided response rewriting, which replaces the responses of influence-selected examples with behavior-aligned or behavior-opposed supervision while keeping instructions fixed, tested across four open-weight LLMs using epistemic abstention as the primary testbed. Rewriting produces stronger, more persistent, and bidirectional behavioral shifts, including on safety refusal, while reweighting the same examples yields weak, inconsistent effects. The results motivate intervention-aware evaluation of TDA methods.

Hugging Face daily papers·Sep 1, 20:00 UTC · 14d agoAI research

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Towards Scalable and Cost-Efficient Vulnerability Detection: A Study on Automatic Query Generation

A study finds LLM-synthesized CodeQL queries improve average F1-score by 82% over baseline queries, offering scalable vulnerability detection versus direct LLM scanning.

Researchers conducted an empirical study evaluating whether LLMs can synthesize executable CodeQL queries from National Vulnerability Database vulnerability data. LLM-generated queries significantly enhanced baseline CodeQL suites, yielding an 82% improvement in average F1-score across a diverse set of real-world vulnerabilities. A cost-benefit analysis shows direct LLM-based scanning of entire repositories is often computationally and financially prohibitive, while LLM query synthesis offers a scalable and cost-effective alternative for large-scale vulnerability detection.

arXiv cs.CR·Sep 9, 16:31 UTC · 6d agoResearch1

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The State of Cloud Risk 2026: Most Security Findings Aren’t Real Attacker Opportunities

Wiz Research's 2026 cloud risk report finds most high-severity findings lack a viable path to compromise, urging exposure-based prioritization.

Wiz Research telemetry underpins a State of Cloud Risk 2026 report arguing that the majority of high-severity security findings are not real attacker opportunities because they lack a path to compromise. The report pushes defenders to prioritize findings by exposure and exploitability rather than raw severity scores. No specific CVEs, victims, or incident counts are provided in the available text.

Wiz Blog·Aug 26, 15:01 UTC · 20d agoResearch

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Studying Image Tokenizers as Visual Languages in Unified Multimodal Models

A controlled autoregressive testbed shows validation losses must be analyzed per task, and image tokenizer choice affects joint multimodal text modeling.

Researchers built a pure-autoregressive testbed to study image tokenizers as the 'visual language' of unified multimodal models, tracking task-specific validation losses during multimodal continual pretraining across text, image, text-to-image (T2I), and image-to-text (I2T) prediction. They found that losses exhibit distinct scaling behavior per task and rank tokenizers differently, and that I2T loss over a shared text vocabulary gives a more consistent loss–performance signal than T2I loss. Better reconstruction does not necessarily yield lower task-specific losses or stronger downstream performance, and tokenizer choice can affect text modeling under joint optimization. Case studies examine the discriminator, semantic supervision, and vocabulary size design axes.

Hugging Face daily papers·Sep 7, 20:00 UTC · 8d agoAI research1

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A Hybrid LSTM-XGBoost Framework for Multi-Horizon Stock Return Prediction Across Diversified Equity Portfolios

Hybrid LSTM-XGBoost model predicts multi-horizon returns for 14 US equities, cutting 30-day RMSE to about one-third of a standalone LSTM baseline.

The paper combines a two-layer LSTM (64 hidden units) processing 60-day windows of five market features with an XGBoost regressor over a 78-dimensional hybrid feature vector including 14 technical indicators. It is trained on pooled data for 14 US equities across six sectors using chronological splits and per-stock MinMaxScaling to prevent look-ahead bias, and evaluated at 30, 90, 252, and 365 trading-day horizons. The hybrid achieves test RMSE of 0.0949 at 30 days, roughly one-third of the standalone LSTM, while 97.6% directional accuracy at 365 days largely tracks the base rate of positive returns.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 11, 17:51 UTC · 4d agoAI research

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Lightweight Vision Transformer Compression for On-Device Plant Disease Detection in Resource-Constrained Agricultural Field Conditions

A unified ViT compression pipeline (H-BAC pruning, quantization, distillation) cuts plant-disease models 54.5x to 6.01 MB while keeping 95.13% accuracy.

Researchers combined Hessian-Balanced Adaptive Block Pruning (H-BAC), guided by second-order sensitivity estimation, with quantization and attention-based knowledge distillation to compress Vision Transformers for on-device chilli plant disease detection in India. On a 3-class cross-village, cross-device out-of-distribution dataset, the integrated pipeline reduced model size from 327.42 MB to 6.01 MB (54.5x) at 95.13 +/- 2.32% accuracy, matching the 95.13% FP32 baseline. Ablations also show a directly trained 6.01 MB INT8 student reaches 94.87% accuracy, indicating where pruning and distillation add limited value.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 4, 16:40 UTC · 11d agoAI research

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What researchers learned about building an LLM security workflow

Oslo and FFI researchers show structured agentic workflows lift LLM alert-triage accuracy from 0% to about 93% on malicious cases.

Researchers at the University of Oslo and the Norwegian Defence Research Establishment tested GPT-5-mini, Claude 3 Haiku, Qwen3:30B, and Gemma 3:27B on alerts from the AIT Log Data Set V1.1; given only alert descriptions and log summaries, all four models correctly flagged zero percent of true-positive cases involving reconnaissance, brute-force logins, and initial access. Wrapping the same models in a workflow with constrained SQL queries over Suricata logs, an evidence summarizer, and a verdict stage with revision loops raised malicious-case accuracy to an average of 93 percent, with GPT-5-mini identifying every malicious case across 100 runs. The authors flag it as a proof-of-concept on one synthetic scenario and note models skewed conservative on benign alerts, with GPT-5-mini marking every benign case uncertain.

Help Net Security·Aug 24, 04:21 UTC · 23d agoAI research1

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Competence-Gated Pooling of Language Models and Priors for Event Forecasting

Paper proposes a competence gate pooling language model forecasts with external priors, improving Brier score from 0.0771 to 0.0732 across 2,357 binary questions.

The paper defines a language model's relative competence as its marginal value beyond an available external forecast, and derives conditions under Brier loss where model disagreement improves that forecast. A competence gate estimates domain-level source weights from resolved outcomes, shrinks uncertain estimates toward a global weight, and recalibrates the pooled forecast. Across 2,357 resolved binary questions and five language models, it improves the external baseline from 0.0771 to 0.0732 Brier and beats global forecast combinations, though it defers to the market on ForecastBench. Across four Qwen models, verbal confidence failed to identify when the model outperformed the external forecast, while outcome-estimated competence supported better abstention.

Hugging Face daily papers·Sep 9, 20:00 UTC · 6d agoAI research

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SAFIRE: Safety-Critical Benchmark for Fine-grained Fire and Smoke Understanding in Multimodal LLMs

SAFIRE, an 83K-image fire and smoke benchmark, shows open-source multimodal LLMs average only 61.9% accuracy on safety-critical fire reasoning.

SAFIRE is a large-scale benchmark for fire-smoke understanding in multimodal LLMs with 83K captioned images across 20 scenarios and 193K multiple-choice VQA questions spanning 10 evaluation dimensions from perception to higher-order reasoning. Annotations were built via a GPT-5.4-assisted multi-stage pipeline with MLLM majority voting. Ten open-source MLLMs (8B-38B) average 61.9% accuracy, exposing major gaps in safety-critical reasoning. Adapting vision encoders on 7% of the domain data raises fire-scene classification from 20.1% to 64.5%.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 7, 17:59 UTC · 8d agoAI research

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Necessary or Sufficient? Evaluating LLM Explanations With Behavioural Evidence

New framework tests whether LLM-cited explanation factors are necessary or sufficient, finding weak correlation across Claude, GPT, and Gemini models.

An arXiv paper introduces black-box intervention tests measuring whether factors LLMs cite in their explanations are necessary or sufficient for their outputs in agent oversight workflows. Across eight models from the Claude, GPT, and Gemini families, Spearman correlations between cited rankings and measured influence ranged from 0.349-0.354 (advisor recommendation) to 0.431-0.580 (prompt monitoring). Uncited factors scored above the lowest cited factor in up to 57.6% of advisor responses, showing cited top-three factors do not reliably identify the most influential inputs.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 4, 17:37 UTC · 11d agoAI safety & security1

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The Price of Sparsity: Sufficient Conditions for Sparse Recovery using Sparse and Sparsified Measurements

Researchers derive sufficient sample-size conditions for recovering sparse binary signals from sparse Gaussian measurements, quantifying an information-theoretic threshold of order slog(p/s)/log(ds/p).

The paper studies support recovery of sparse binary signals from noisy linear measurements. For sparse Gaussian designs, the authors identify sufficient minimal sample sizes for maximum-likelihood recovery in the high-SNR regime d*s/p -> infinity, yielding an information-theoretic threshold of order slog(p/s)/log(ds/p) that makes the price of measurement sparsity explicit. They also show a regime where the sample-complexity loss from sparsity is only logarithmic while computational gains are nearly linear, and prove that for independently sparsified dense Gaussian designs a sample size of order p/ψ² suffices for support recovery at any fixed error level.

Hugging Face daily papers·Sep 7, 20:00 UTC · 8d agoAI research

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Studying Image Tokenizers as Visual Languages in Unified Multimodal Models

A controlled pure-autoregressive testbed shows task-specific validation losses rank image tokenizers differently, with I2T loss the most consistent signal.

Researchers built a controlled pure-autoregressive testbed and tracked task-specific validation losses during multimodal continual pretraining across text, image, text-to-image (T2I), and image-to-text (I2T) prediction. They find losses should be analyzed per task because they exhibit distinct scaling behavior and rank tokenizers differently, and that the loss-performance relationship depends on the predicted token space. I2T loss, computed over a shared text vocabulary, correlates consistently with both generation and visual understanding performance after supervised finetuning. Case studies revisit the discriminator, semantic supervision, and vocabulary size as tokenizer design axes.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 8, 17:57 UTC · 7d agoAI research1

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SQS: Bayesian DNN Compression through Sparse Quantized Sub-distributions

SQS unifies weight pruning and low-bit quantization via Bayesian variational learning, compressing Llama3.2 and Qwen2.5 at higher rates with comparable accuracy.

SQS introduces a unified Bayesian variational framework performing simultaneous pruning and low-bit quantization, using a spike-and-slab prior for sparsity and Gaussian Mixture Models to model quantized weights. The authors derive an efficient approximation for the intractable objective and provide a consistency result for the variational approach. Experiments on ResNet, BERT-base, Llama3.2, and Qwen2.5 show higher compression rates than prior baselines with comparable performance drops.

Hugging Face daily papers·Sep 6, 20:00 UTC · 9d agoAI research

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E2A-Bench: Benchmarking Evidence-to-Action Reliability in Financial Chart Reasoning

E2A-Bench, a 969-query financial chart reasoning benchmark, finds VLMs fail evidence-to-action consistency, with fine-tuning amplifying BUY:SELL bias 4-6x.

E2A-Bench is a 969-query benchmark built from 323 HS300 constituents across three input modalities with deterministic OHLCV-derived evidence anchors, evaluating grounding, reasoning-action consistency, evidence-confidence calibration, and directional coverage via UCR, RCI, ECI, and NDR metrics. Testing 20 VLMs showed the lowest-hallucination model ranked near the bottom on coverage with only 6.4% directional coverage, and oracle-aided verification reduced unsupported claims but could collapse coverage. Financial fine-tuning amplified the BUY:SELL ratio by factors of 4.21 to 4.68 across base-fine-tuned pairs.

Hugging Face daily papers·Sep 12, 20:00 UTC · 3d agoAI research

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