Search: “risk-scoring”

Bag of Tricks or Bag of Myths? Reducing Modeling Complexity with Task Knowledge in Explainable Suicide Risk Assessment

Researchers audit 31 NLP techniques for clinician-annotated suicide risk prediction, finding only 5 of 31 comparisons yield reliable gains.

A study of 1,635 clinician-annotated social media posts ran roughly 300 controlled experiments across 7 methodological families, auditing techniques such as model scaling, synthetic data, ensembling, and threshold tuning under severe class imbalance. The proposed system reformulates risk factor prediction as entailment between posts and codebook definitions, using architecturally diverse ensembles with class-balanced training and deployment-consistent calibration. It scores 0.8203 for risk, 0.7953 for evidence, and 0.7045 macro-F1 for factors, ranking third among 53 teams.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 7, 17:14 UTC · 9d agoAI research

Toward an Empirical Probabilistic Risk Manifestation Model of Organizational Cybersecurity in SMEs

Empirical study of 22 SME security assessments builds a probabilistic risk model and shows assessments can be cut 24-45% while retaining most critical findings.

Researchers analyzed 281 validated security findings from 22 real-world SME cybersecurity assessments conducted over two years via a pro bono university clinic. They derived an empirical Risk Manifestation Model linking eight organizational security functions to two exposure conditions, five attack mechanisms, and six outcome categories, using probability propagation to identify dominant risk pathways. The dominant pathway runs from asset exposure to credential compromise to unauthorized access, stable under leave-one-organization-out analysis. Retaining six functions reduces assessment burden by 24% while preserving 97% of critical findings; five functions cut burden 45% while preserving 89% of critical findings.

arXiv cs.CR·Sep 14, 01:15 UTC · 2d agoResearch

Target leakage, not model class, explains reported accuracy in survey-based cardiovascular screening: a leakage-tiered audit of glass-box and tabular foundation models

Audits of 10 classifiers on BRFSS show target leakage, not model class, drives the reported 0.89 AUROC in survey-based cardiovascular screening.

The study benchmarks ten model classes, including glass-box and tabular foundation models, for prevalent myocardial infarction on 442,067 respondents of the 2022 BRFSS across five feature tiers of decreasing leakage risk. Removing two post-diagnostic features costs every model 0.049-0.051 AUROC and collapses performance into a 0.0045-wide band, and the explainable boosting machine matches all alternatives within 0.005 while scoring roughly 104x faster than the strongest foundation model. Frozen models transport within 0.002 AUROC to 2023 data; the authors conclude evaluation practice and feature sets, not model capacity, are the binding constraint.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 10, 17:29 UTC · 6d agoAI research1

From ‘High/Medium/Low’ to Dollars: Making Cyber Risk Legible to Your CFO

Cyble argues security teams should express cyber risk in financial terms for CFOs instead of high/medium/low ratings, citing its 2025 threat forecast results.

Cyble published guidance on cyber risk quantification, arguing qualitative high/medium/low ratings fail to convey financial exposure to executives. The piece notes that over 80% of its 2025 threat predictions, including AI-driven ransomware and supply-chain attacks, materialized as anticipated.

Cyble·Aug 25, 09:45 UTC · 22d agoIndustry

AI vulnerability discovery scores the highest impact of 20 emerging risks

Gartner survey of 316 organizations ranks AI-driven vulnerability discovery as the top emerging risk, with tangible impact expected within roughly two years.

Gartner's quarterly survey had 316 risk managers, auditors, and senior executives rank 20 emerging threats in April and May, with AI discovery of cyber vulnerabilities ranked first, up from outside the top five the prior quarter. Respondents scored the impact time frame at 1.92 on a scale where 1 means under a year and 2 means one to two years, and 76% placed it in their top ten, ranking first in all four regions and highest among banking and financial respondents at 78%. The analysis notes AI now finds unknown flaws at volumes patching teams cannot absorb and that exploit development time has collapsed, citing defensive efforts like Anthropic's Project Glasswing and OpenAI's Daybreak. Gartner recommends recalibrating cyber risk impact, revisiting risk appetite, demanding stronger vendor security validation, and moving toward faster automated remediation.

Help Net Security·Aug 26, 00:00 UTC · 21d agoIndustry

Recorded Future Launches 6 New Capabilities for Third-Party Risk

Recorded Future added native risk ratings to its Third-Party Risk product, uniting threat intelligence and risk scoring in one workflow.

Recorded Future launched six new capabilities bringing native risk ratings into its Third-Party Risk product. The integration combines threat intelligence with risk ratings in a single workflow for assessing vendors and external partners. No exploitation or incident is involved; this is a security product capability release.

Recorded Future·Aug 19, 00:00 UTC · 28d agoTools

TIER: Threat Implicitness Benchmark for Evaluating LLM Safety Behaviors

TIER benchmark shows LLM safety behaviors shift gradually across threat implicitness levels, with jailbreaks exposing the largest robustness gaps.

The TIER benchmark evaluates LLM safety behaviors across four risk domains and four threat levels, from explicit harmful requests to sophisticated jailbreaks, using a six-label behavior scale and two independent LLM judges. Experiments on six open-weight LLMs show safety behaviors evolve gradually across threat levels rather than flipping from refusal to compliance. Models with similar Attack Success Rates can exhibit distinct response distributions, arguing for behavior-aware safety evaluation.

arXiv cs.CR·Sep 4, 13:13 UTC · 12d agoAI safety & security

K-Bench: a clinically calibrated benchmark for evaluating large language models in high-risk mental health conversations

Clinician-calibrated K-Bench evaluates 125 LLM configurations on 200 high-risk mental health vignettes, exposing wide variation in suicide and violence risk handling.

K-Bench is a clinician-calibrated, protected benchmark evaluating 125 model configurations from 33 base models across 14 providers on 200 multi-turn vignettes covering suicide, self-harm, domestic violence, substance misuse and no-risk presentations. A frozen GPT-4o judge achieved 94.2% exact agreement with clinician consensus across 6,751 eligible comparisons from 151 clinician-rated transcripts. Leading models combined supportive conversation with combined-risk scores above 95, while risk exploration varied substantially among weaker configurations; therapeutic prompting helped weaker models and elevated reasoning produced no average improvement. A continuously updated public leaderboard is hosted at k-bench.ai with protected test materials.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 14, 16:49 UTC · 2d agoAI safety & security

The State of Cloud Risk 2026: Most Security Findings Aren’t Real Attacker Opportunities

Wiz Research's 2026 cloud risk report finds most high-severity findings lack a viable path to compromise, urging exposure-based prioritization.

Wiz Research telemetry underpins a State of Cloud Risk 2026 report arguing that the majority of high-severity security findings are not real attacker opportunities because they lack a path to compromise. The report pushes defenders to prioritize findings by exposure and exploitability rather than raw severity scores. No specific CVEs, victims, or incident counts are provided in the available text.

Wiz Blog·Aug 26, 15:01 UTC · 21d agoResearch

CTEM Technology Evaluation Scorecard

Horizon3.ai releases a scorecard for evaluating CTEM technologies on demonstrated exploitability and remediation evidence.

Horizon3.ai published a downloadable CTEM Technology Evaluation Scorecard for assessing security technologies across the six-stage Continuous Threat Exposure Management operating model, from discovering exposure through verifying risk removal. The scorecard uses a 0-3 scale based on repeatable evidence demonstrated in the evaluator's environment rather than stated feature claims, with emphasis on validating exploitability and verifying remediation. It is vendor marketing material aimed at security leaders and evaluation teams.

Horizon3.ai·16:56 UTC · 5h agoIndustry 2 sources

Reference-Based Bias Detection in LLMs via Relative Representations of Hidden States

Researchers propose auditing LLM bias via relative hidden-state representations, detecting bias increases with 3-50x less compute than output-level benchmarks.

The paper introduces a reference-based bias auditing method that compares hidden-state representations across model variants, such as before and after fine-tuning, by encoding sentences relative to a fixed anchor set. The resulting Representational Bias Shift (Delta-B) correlates with output-level bias change in 15 of 18 tested settings, reaching |r| = 0.84 under full fine-tuning across WildGuardMix, DecodingTrust, and ToxiGen benchmarks. Thresholding Delta-B detects checkpoints whose bias increased with ROC AUC between 0.65 and 0.99 and beats a SEAT-based baseline, while auditing a model in about three minutes with 3-50x less compute.

Hugging Face daily papers·Sep 8, 20:00 UTC · 8d agoAI research1

Benchmark Radar: A Living Database and Search Engine for AI Benchmarks and Evaluation

Benchmark Radar provides a living searchable database of 1,283 AI benchmark records and 12,916 score observations drawn from 37 daily discovery sources.

Benchmark Radar combines daily discovery of benchmark papers, repositories, datasets, and releases from 13 direct connectors and 24 first-party feeds into a searchable catalog with model card mentions and score histories. The catalog contains 1,283 source records drawn from 4 benchmark catalogs plus 12,916 numeric observations on 790 records. The release includes a web dashboard with leaderboard, Pareto frontier of score versus usage, saturation and trend views, daily feeds, a CLI, and reproducible analysis. The paper audits the full catalog and examines benchmark saturation and limits of score comparisons.

Hugging Face daily papers·Sep 9, 20:00 UTC · 7d agoAI research

OWASP Flags Top AI Skill Risks in New Security Blueprint

OWASP released a new top 10 security list for AI skills and introduced a Universal Skill Format to standardize security of AI add-ons.

The Open Worldwide Application Security Project (OWASP) published a new top 10 risk list tailored to AI skills, the add-on capabilities extending AI agents. It also debuts a Universal Skill Format intended to add consistency and security to these AI add-ons. The blueprint gives defenders a structured way to assess risks introduced by third-party skills.

Dark Reading·Aug 21, 17:36 UTC · 26d agoAI safety & security

Evaluating Time-Series Foundation Models and Multimodal Dietary Context for CGM Forecasting

Study finds zero-shot time-series foundation models underperform on CGM forecasting; fine-tuned Chronos-Bolt cuts RMSE up to 18.4% and dietary context adds signal.

The paper evaluates time-series foundation models for continuous glucose monitoring forecasting across eight public datasets covering Type 1 diabetes, Type 2 diabetes, and non-diabetes populations. Under a unified protocol, zero-shot foundation models did not consistently outperform baselines like Elastic Net and PatchTST, but lightweight fine-tuning did, with fine-tuned Chronos-Bolt reducing RMSE by 6.5%-18.4% in the T1D cohort and 8.6%-18.2% in the non-diabetes/T2D cohort. A residual-based fusion framework adding dietary context from CGMacros reduced overall RMSE by about 3% and postprandial RMSE by about 15% versus CGM-only baselines.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 10, 17:43 UTC · 6d agoAI research

Your Critical Vulnerabilities Might Not Be Your Biggest Risk

Autonomous penetration testing advocates prioritize exploitable attack paths over raw vulnerability severity for continuous security validation.

The article argues that scanner severity scores lack context: a critical flaw behind strong segmentation may be low priority, while a medium flaw on internet-facing systems can provide a foothold chained toward sensitive data. It positions autonomous penetration testing and attack path validation as the execution layer for continuous security validation, replacing point-in-time assessments. The piece is vendor-authored thought leadership rather than incident or vulnerability news.

The Hacker News·Sep 11, 11:30 UTC · 5d agoIndustry1

Benchmark Scores Are Pipeline-Dependent: A Reliability Audit of Cybersecurity LLM Benchmarks

Audit of eight cybersecurity LLM benchmarks shows evaluation pipeline choices can swing scores by over 80 points and reshuffle most model rankings.

Researchers modeled eight cybersecurity benchmarks as configurable measurement pipelines and audited 10 proprietary, open-weight, and cybersecurity-specialized LLMs. They identified 15 systematic failure modes and showed a single pipeline choice can change a model's score by more than 80 percentage points and alter rankings; semantically similar task pairs rank the same models differently. Under a standardized harness, nine of 10 models shifted at least three ranks on at least one benchmark, motivating pipeline-aware auditing for reliable model evaluation.

arXiv cs.CR·Sep 8, 14:01 UTC · 8d agoAI research1

One in four MCP servers opens AI agent security to code execution risk

Noma Security whitepaper finds most popular AI Skills and many MCP servers carry high-risk capabilities, with state changes most prevalent.

Noma Security analyzed hundreds of popular MCP servers and Skills across eight risk categories, finding most widely used Skills carry at least one risky characteristic and a typical enterprise runs well over a hundred high-risk agent tools, with arbitrary code execution common across MCP servers. The most prevalent risk is the ability to change state or data, and named toxic combinations include ContextCrush data leakage, ForcedLeak via poisoned Salesforce CRM records, DockerDash supply-chain compromise, the Replit production database deletion, and the hijacked Amazon Q VS Code extension. Building on OWASP LLM06:2025, the paper proposes the No Excessive CAP framework of capabilities, autonomy, and permissions, recommending allowlisting, MCP version pinning, approval gates on irreversible actions, and user-scoped expiring credentials.

Help Net Security·Aug 24, 04:21 UTC · 23d agoAI safety & security

PIDS-Bench: Evaluating Prompt-Injection Detectors Under Over-Defense, Obfuscation, and Distribution Shift

PIDS-Bench shows prompt-injection detectors scoring F1 above 0.98 still misclassify about one-third of external benign security-adjacent prompts, revealing provenance-sensitive over-defense.

PIDS-Bench is a frozen multi-axis benchmark that jointly evaluates prompt-injection detectors on attack detection and benign false-positive behavior at fixed thresholds, spanning in-distribution inputs, hard-benign prompts, obfuscated attacks, and domain/structural distribution shifts. It evaluates seven detectors plus a rule-based lower-bound reference. A detector exceeding F1 = 0.98 on held-out data still misclassifies roughly one-third of an externally-sourced benign security-adjacent subset, and no internal detector reaches F1 >= 0.95 with hard-benign FPR <= 0.10 on the stress distribution. Hard-negative augmentation nearly eliminates over-defense on curated stress inputs but leaves it intact on externally-sourced prompts, a pattern termed provenance-sensitive over-defense.

arXiv cs.CR·Sep 14, 04:28 UTC · 2d agoAI safety & security

Credential Risk Report

Enzoic's 2026 Credential Risk Report finds 85% of professionals cite compromised credentials as a primary attack path, yet only 19% monitor continuously.

The 2026 Credential Risk Report from Enzoic examines where credential security programs fall short across detection, monitoring, and response. It argues that MFA and point-in-time password screening do not fully address credential exposure. The report advocates shifting from reactive password controls toward a continuous credential defense model with automated remediation.

Help Net Security·Aug 18, 00:00 UTC · 29d agoIndustry

Building a risk-based vulnerability management program that scales

Asimily CEO Shankar Somasundaram outlines a risk-based vulnerability management approach using inventory, attack paths, KEV and EPSS data.

In a Help Net Security video, Asimily CEO Shankar Somasundaram argues patching everything is infeasible as AI-driven attacks inflate vulnerability counts, with one customer finding a thousand unknowns for each known one. He recommends building a full inventory of devices, applications, and data flows, mapping attack paths for reachability, and prioritizing with KEV, EPSS, and business impact. Mitigations include patching, virtual patching via NACs and firewalls, segmentation, and configuration snapshots to detect drift.

Help Net Security·Aug 24, 04:21 UTC · 23d agoIndustry

HazardAuditor: From Executable Threats to Safer Computer-Use Agents

HazardAuditor trains execution-grounded guard models for computer-use agents, improving safety verdict accuracy by up to 16.5 points.

HazardAuditor runs heterogeneous agents (Claude Code, Codex, Hermes, OpenClaw) in controlled environments and normalizes their interactions into a canonical event representation for cross-framework supervision. It introduces Guard Policy Optimization (GuardPO), which converts deterministic safety outcomes into sequence-level advantages and normalizes rationale and verdict regions so the safety decision becomes the effective optimization unit. Across multiple benchmarks and heterogeneous computer-use systems, HazardAuditor improves accuracy by up to 16.5 percentage points over the strongest prior guard model. Code, models, and evaluation artifacts are being released.

Hugging Face daily papers·Sep 13, 20:00 UTC · 3d agoAI safety & security

When the prompt becomes the payload: A practical pen-testing guide for GenAI, LLM and RAG applications

CSO Online publishes a practical penetration-testing guide for GenAI, LLM, and RAG applications, covering prompt injection, retrieval poisoning, and tenant isolation testing.

The guide frames LLM applications as attack graphs spanning prompts, retrieval layers, vector stores, tools, identities, and downstream APIs, arguing that conventional web testing misses instruction-vs-data channel risks. It builds on OWASP prompt injection guidance (direct vs. indirect injection) and NIST's 2025 adversarial machine-learning taxonomy, noting that RAG and fine-tuning do not remove injection risk. Recommended practices include documenting trust transitions across components, using canaries and synthetic records to avoid test side effects, running multi-turn and obfuscated injection campaigns, and verifying chains from poisoned documents to observable state changes. It also details testing RAG pipelines via controlled document poisoning across metadata, OCR layers, and code comments, plus cross-tenant isolation checks on retrieved document IDs.

CSO Online·Sep 9, 10:00 UTC · 7d agoAI safety & security1

Bad Likert Judge: A Novel Multi-Turn Technique to Jailbreak LLMs by Misusing Their Evaluation Capability

Unit 42 details the Bad Likert Judge multi-turn jailbreak that abuses LLMs' evaluation capability, raising attack success rates over 60% across six frontier models.

Palo Alto Networks Unit 42 describes the Bad Likert Judge technique, a multi-turn jailbreak that asks a target LLM to act as a Likert-scale judge scoring the harmfulness of example responses. The highest-rated example in each scale can carry harmful content, bypassing the model's internal guardrails. Testing across six state-of-the-art text-generation LLMs showed an average attack success rate increase of more than 60% versus plain attack prompts, with tested models anonymized. The technique targets edge cases rather than typical use, and the article positions the work as guidance for defenders on potential jailbreak risks.

Palo Alto Unit 42·Aug 17, 12:34 UTC · Aug 17, 2026AI safety & security

Introducing Unit 42’s Attribution Framework

Unit 42 releases its Attribution Framework, a systematic method using Diamond Model and Admiralty scores to attribute activity clusters to named threat actors.

Palo Alto Networks' Unit 42 introduced a structured framework for threat actor attribution built on the Diamond Model of Intrusion Analysis and Admiralty reliability/credibility scoring. The framework tracks activity at three levels: activity clusters (named CL-STA, CL-CRI, CL-UNK, or CL-MIX), temporary threat groups, and named threat actors using the constellation naming schema. Analysts score evidence across TTPs, tooling, malware code, OPSEC, infrastructure, timelines, and victimology to decide when to merge or elevate clusters, avoiding premature group naming.

Palo Alto Unit 42·Aug 17, 10:52 UTC · Aug 17, 2026Research

Pick Your Poison: Learning to Select Poison Sets for Stronger LLM Backdoor Attacks

SAILS learns to select poison sets for LLM backdoor attacks, showing attack success ranges 3% to 80% at fixed poison counts across LLaMA-3-8B settings.

The paper shows existing backdoor evaluations that randomly sample a fixed number of poisoned examples severely underestimate worst-case vulnerability: across three LLaMA-3-8B settings, attack success ranges from 3% to 80% depending only on which poison set is chosen. SAILS formalizes poison selection as oracle-budgeted set optimization, learning a set scorer from a few hundred finetune-and-evaluate runs to rank millions of candidate sets and audit a small shortlist. It improves held-out attack success by 30 percentage points over the strongest influence baselines and transfers from small-scale to full-scale finetuning, extending to code-generation, agentic, and API-only backdoors.

arXiv cs.CR·Sep 14, 04:44 UTC · 2d agoAI safety & security 2 sources1

Quantifying IIoT Sensor Node Criticality by Fusing its Data Criticality and Security Vulnerability

Researchers propose a Dempster–Shafer framework fusing IIoT sensor data criticality with CVSS 4.0/3.1 vulnerability scores to rank node criticality.

The paper introduces a framework that evaluates Industrial IoT sensor node criticality by fusing data criticality and cybersecurity vulnerability scores using Dempster–Shafer (D-S) theory. It was validated on a dataset from red wine production and is claimed to generalize to other industrial settings with minimal modification. Results show criticality rankings derived from CVSS 4.0 scores differ significantly from those derived from CVSS 3.1, underscoring how vulnerability scoring methodology affects security prioritization.

arXiv cs.CR·Sep 9, 07:03 UTC · 7d agoResearch

Prompt Injection Remains Biggest LLM Risk, Despite Limited Incidents

Infosecurity Magazine·Aug 5, 11:00 UTC · Aug 5, 2026AI safety & security

Coding Agents Have Converged: Why the SWE-bench Leaderboard Can No Longer Order Its Top Entries, and What to Measure Instead

Audit of 254 SWE-bench submissions finds top coding-agent entries statistically inseparable, so small leaderboard gaps no longer establish rank.

The paper audits 254 SWE-bench submissions across four splits without running models. On Verified, the top two entries each resolve 396 of 500 instances, and exact paired McNemar tests separate none of the 29 adjacent top-thirty pairs at alpha=0.05. Within-model scaffold score ranges reach 29.8 percentage points, versus an 8.8-point spread among the top thirty. The authors release a five-step audit protocol and recommend reporting comparison-set-specific resolution and model-scaffold provenance.

arXiv cs.AI / cs.LG / cs.CL·Sep 15, 16:29 UTC · 1d agoAI research

Introducing Continuous Vulnerability Assessment: Real-Time Defense for the AI Threat Era

Wiz launched Continuous Vulnerability Assessment (CVA), alerting customers to exposure against newly published vulnerabilities in real time.

Wiz introduced Continuous Vulnerability Assessment, a capability that detects exposure to newly published vulnerabilities the moment they are disclosed. The company positions CVA as real-time defense for the AI threat era, reducing the window between disclosure and remediation decisions. The item is a vendor product announcement with no incident details.

Wiz Blog·Sep 1, 10:54 UTC · 15d agoTools

Can your coding style predict whether your code is vulnerable?

University of Massachusetts Dartmouth researchers present VulStyle, a stylometry-based vulnerability detector that also exposes benchmark reliability problems.

VulStyle combines stylometric features with syntax-tree structure and source tokens, pre-trained on about 4.9 million functions across seven programming languages and fine-tuned on five vulnerability detection datasets. It beat token-only detectors on some benchmarks but its F1 drops sharply on DiverseVul, which the authors link to noisy labels inflating reported performance across popular datasets. The authors argue style-aware detection should be harder to evade but did not test this empirically, and they note that uniform LLM-generated code may strip away the individual developer style the model depends on.

Help Net Security·Aug 24, 04:21 UTC · 23d agoResearch1